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NASA NTRS2015

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: More Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

wheat↗

NASA NTRS1989

Improved computer simulation of the TCAS 3 circular array mounted on an aircraft

The Traffic advisory and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is being developed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to assist aircraft pilots in mid-air collision avoidance. This report concentrates on the computer simulation of the enchanced TCAS 2 systems mounted on a Boeing 727. First, the moment method is used to obtain an accurate model for the enhanced TCAS 2 antenna array. Then, the OSU Aircraft Code is used to generate theoretical radiation patterns of this model mounted on a simulated Boeing 727 model. Scattering error curves obtained from these patterns can be used to evaluate the performance of this system in determining the angular position of another aircraft with respect to the TCAS-equipped aircraft. Finally, the tracking of another aircraft is simulated when the TCAS-equipped aircraft follows a prescribed escape curve. In short, the computer models developed in this report have generality, completeness and yield reasonable results.

Rojas, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Real Time Land-Surface Hydrologic Modeling Over Continental US

The land surface component of the hydrological cycle is fundamental to the overall functioning of the atmospheric and climate processes. Spatially and temporally variable rainfall and available energy, combined with land surface heterogeneity cause complex variations in all processes related to surface hydrology. The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of water and energy cycles are critical to improve our understanding of land surface-atmosphere interaction and the impact of land surface processes on climate extremes. Because the accurate knowledge of these processes and their variability is important for climate predictions, most Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated land surface schemes in their models. However, errors in the NWP forcing accumulate in the surface and energy stores, leading to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning and related processes. This has motivated the NWP to impose ad hoc corrections to the land surface states to prevent this drift. A proposed methodology is to develop Land Data Assimilation schemes (LDAS), which are uncoupled models forced with observations, and not affected by NWP forcing biases. The proposed research is being implemented as a real time operation using an existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (SVATS) model at a 40 km degree resolution across the United States to evaluate these critical science questions. The model will be forced with real time output from numerical prediction models, satellite data, and radar precipitation measurements. Model parameters will be derived from the existing GIS vegetation and soil coverages. The model results will be aggregated to various scales to assess water and energy balances and these will be validated with various in-situ observations.

Houser, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Subsystem Imaging Performance and Modeling of the Infrared Multi-Object Spectrograph

The Infrared Multi-Object Spectrograph (IRMOS) is a facility instrument for the Kitt Peak National Observatory Mayall Telescope (3.8 meter). IRMOS is a near-IR (0.8 - 2.5 micron) spectrograph with low to mid resolution (R=lambda/delta, lambda = 300 - 3800). The IRMOS spectrograph produces simultaneous spectra of - 100 objects in its 2.8 x 2.0 arc-min field of view using a commercial MEMS multi-mirror array device (MMA). The IRMOS optical design consists of two imaging systems, or "stages." The focal reducer, stage one, images the focal plane of the telescope onto the MMA. The spectrograph, stage two, images the MMA onto the detector. We describe the breadboard alignment method and imaging and scattered light performance for both the focal reducer and spectrograph. This testing provides verification of the optomechanical alignment method, and a measurement of the contribution of scattered light in the system due to mirror small scale surface error. After the stage I and 2 optics are integrated with the instrument, our test results will make it possible to distinguish between scattered light from the mirrors and the MMA. Image testing will be done at four wavelengths in the visible and near-IR. A mercury-argon pencil lamp will provide spectral lines at 546.1 and 1012 nm, and a blackbody radiation source lines at 1600 and 2200 nm. A CCD camera will be used as a detector for the visible wavelengths, and an IR photodiode will be used for the IR wavelengths. We compare our data with a theoretical analysis using a commercial software package. Mirror surface error is modeled by treating each surface as a superposition of various gratings (e.g., diamond turning tool marks, features due to the impurities of Al 6061, and periodic mid-frequency errors due to drift during machining).

Connelly, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Development of a validation model for the defense meteorological satellite program's special sensor microwave imager

The Defence Meteorological Space Program's (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), an operational wind speed algorithm was developed. The algorithm is based on the D-matrix approach which seeks a linear relationship between measured SSM/I brightness temperatures and environmental parameters. D-matrix performance was validated by comparing algorithm derived wind speeds with near-simultaneous and co-located measurements made by off-shore ocean buoys. Other topics include error budget modeling, alternate wind speed algorithms, and D-matrix performance with one or more inoperative SSM/I channels.

Swift, C. T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

On correcting radial orbit errors for altimetric satellites using crossover analysis

A method is proposed for correcting radial orbit error in measurements of sea surface height using a satellite altimeter. Traditionally, the orbit error is modeled in terms of a Fourier series with the Fourier coefficients determined by minimizing the residual crossover difference in a least-squares sense. In this method an a priori constraint must be imposed to obtain a unique solution. It is shown that by using singular value decomposition, no such constraint is needed. This proposed method leaves the geographically dependent errors unchanged and makes only those corrections warranted by the information contained in crossover differences. Thus, the resultant ocean topography is free from any undue distortion which might be incurred by an a priori constraint. It is suggested that the method is useful for application to high-accuracy altimetric mission, because the orbit error can be reduced without compromising the accuracy of the measured mean ocean topography.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

NASA NTRS1986

Modified LTR robust control for flexible structures

A procedure is developed for dealing with performance and robustness issues in the design of multi-input multi-output compensators for lightly damped flexible structures. The procedure is based upon representing errors in the plant design model as structured uncertainties, and applying a modified version of the Loop Transfer Recovery (LTR) design method. Real parameter errors, such as frequency errors, damping errors or modal displacement errors can be treated. The approach involves adjusting the cost function in the regulator problem and the process noise model in the estimator problem in a particular manner which reflects the assumed structure of the modeling errors. Numerical examples dealing with the control of a large flexible space antenna with uncertain frequencies demonstrate a considerable improvement over standard LTR methods. Convenient design parameters can be varied until a satisfactory compromise is achieved between performance and robustness.

Blelloch, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT-4 horizon scanner performance evaluation

Representative data spans covering a little more than a year since the LANDSAT-4 launch were analyzed to evaluate the flight performance of the satellite's horizon scanner. High frequency noise was filtered out by 128-point averaging. The effects of Earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and residual systematic errors are analyzed. A model for the predicted radiance effects is compared with the flight data and deficiencies in the radiance effects modeling are noted. Correction coefficients are provided for a finite Fourier series representation of the systematic errors in the data. Analysis of the seasonal dependence of the coefficients indicates the effects of some early mission problems with the reference attitudes which were computed by the onboard computer using star trackers and gyro data. The effects of sun and moon interference, unexplained anomalies in the data, and sensor noise characteristics and their power spectrum are described. The variability of full orbit data averages is shown. Plots of the sensor data for all the available data spans are included.

Bilanow, S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The embedded young stars in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud. I - Models for spectral energy distributions

We describe radiative transfer calculations of infalling, dusty envelopes surrounding pre-main-sequence stars and use these models to derive physical properties for a sample of 21 heavily reddened young stars in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud. The density distributions needed to match the FIR peaks in the spectral energy distributions of these embedded sources suggest mass infall rates similar to those predicted for simple thermally supported clouds with temperatures about 10 K. Unless the dust opacities are badly in error, our models require substantial departures from spherical symmetry in the envelopes of all sources. These flattened envelopes may be produced by a combination of rotation and cavities excavated by bipolar flows. The rotating infall models of Terebey et al. (1984) models indicate a centrifugal radius of about 70 AU for many objects if rotation is the only important physical effect, and this radius is reasonably consistent with typical estimates for the sizes of circumstellar disks around T Tauri stars.

Kenyon, Scott J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A31N-03: Lower-Tropospheric CO2 from Near-Infrared ACOS-GOSAT Observations

We present two new products from near-infrared GOSAT observations: lower tropospheric (LMT, from 0-2.5 km) and upper tropospheric/stratospheric (U, above 2.5 km) carbon dioxide partial columns. We compare these new products to aircraft profiles and remote surface flask measurements and find that the seasonal and year-to-year variations in the new partial columns significantly improve over the ACOS-GOSAT initial guess/a priori, with distinct patterns in the LMT and U seasonal cycles which match validation data. For land monthly averages, we find errors of 1.9, 0.7, and 0.8 ppm for retrieved GOSAT LMT, U, and XCO2; for ocean monthly averages, we find errors of 0.7, 0.5, and 0.5 ppm for retrieved GOSAT LMT, U, and XCO2. In the southern hemisphere biomass burning season, the new partial columns show similar patterns to MODIS fire maps and MOPITT multispectral CO for both vertical levels, despite a flat ACOS-GOSAT prior, and CO/CO2 emission factor consistent with published values. The difference of LMT and U, useful for evaluation of model transport error, has also been validated with monthly average error of 0.8 (1.4) ppm for ocean (land). The new LMT partial column is more locally influenced than the U partial column, meaning that local fluxes can now be separated from CO2 transported from far away.

Kulawik, Susan S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

Planetary Boundary Layer↗

NASA NTRS2006

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Lu, Chien-tsug↗

NASA NTRS1980

Comparisons of subsonic drag estimates derived from Pioneer Venus probes flight data with wind-tunnel results

Subsonic drag coefficients have been obtained from flight data for the Pioneer Venus multiprobes. The technique used to extract the information from the data consisted of utilizing in situ pressure and temperature measurements. Analysis of the major model parameter error sources indicates overall error levels of five percent or less in the flight values of the drag coefficient. Comparisons of the flight coefficients with preflight wind-tunnel test data showed generally good agreement except for the Sounder descent probe configuration. To preclude atmospheric phenomena as a possible explanation of this difference, additional wind-tunnel tests were performed on the Sounder descent probe. Special attempts were made to duplicate the probe geometry for tests in a high Reynolds number environment in order to achieve as realistic model and flight conditions as practical. Preliminary results from this testing in the NASA LaRC Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel produced a drag coefficient of 0.68 at 0 deg angle of attack which is within the expected accuracy limits of the flight derived drag coefficient value of 0.72 + or - 0.04, thus eliminating atmospheric phenomena as the explanation for the initial difference.

Blanchard, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Observations

This talk will discuss assimilation of ozone data from satellite-borne instruments. Satellite observations of ozone total columns and profiles have been measured by a series of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, and more recently by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment. Additional profile data are provided by instruments on NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite and by occultation instruments on other platforms. Instruments on Envisat' and future EOS Aura satellite will supply even more comprehensive data about the ozone distribution. Satellite data contain a wealth of information, but they do not provide synoptic global maps of ozone fields. These maps can be obtained through assimilation of satellite data into global chemistry and transport models. In the ozone system at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) any combination of TOMS, SBUV, and Microwave Limb sounder (MLS) data can be assimilated. We found that the addition of MLS to SBUV and TOMS data in the system helps to constrain the ozone distribution, especially in the polar night region and in the tropics. The assimilated ozone distribution in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is sensitive also to finer changes in the SBUV and TOMS data selection and to changes in error covariance models. All results are established by comparisons of assimilated ozone with independent profiles from ozone sondes and occultation instruments.

Stajner, I.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS1980

Software reliability: A comparison of results obtained from established software reliability models

Two models of the software error detection process are compared, the Jelinski-Moranda model and a Bayes inference model. Simulation techniques are used to generate software related system failure data which is analyzed by both models. Point estimates and confidence limits are compared. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be considerable for reasonable samples sizes and should be considered in any application of these techniques. The Jelinski-Moranda model is sensitive to the failure of data to follow internal assumptions of the model, often not providing any point estimates, a factor which may limit its usefulness in many real world situations. The Bayes model is shown to respond to the introduction of additional errors in the software correction process, a condition where error counting models such as the Jelinski-Moranda generally fail to converge.

Horn, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hybrid Guidance Control for a Hypervelocity Small Size Asteroid Interceptor Vehicle

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are comets and/or asteroids that have orbits in proximity with Earth's own orbit. NEOs have collided with the Earth in the past, which can be seen at such places as Chicxulub crater, Barringer crater, and Manson crater, and will continue in the future with potentially significant and devastating results. Fortunately such NEO collisions with Earth are infrequent, but can happen at any time. Therefore it is necessary to develop and validate techniques as well as technologies necessary to prevent them. One approach to mitigate future NEO impacts is the concept of high-speed interceptor. This concept is to alter the NEO's trajectory via momentum exchange by using kinetic impactors as well as nuclear penetration devices. The interceptor has to hit a target NEO at relative velocity which imparts a sufficient change in NEO velocity. NASA's Deep Impact mission has demonstrated this scenario by intercepting Comet Temple 1, 5 km in diameter, with an impact relative speed of approximately 10 km/s. This paper focuses on the development of hybrid guidance navigation and control (GNC) algorithms for precision hypervelocity intercept of small sized NEOs. The spacecraft's hypervelocity and the NEO's small size are critical challenges for a successful mission as the NEO will not fill the field of view until a few seconds before intercept. The investigation needs to consider the error sources modeled in the navigation simulation such as spacecraft initial state uncertainties in position and velocity. Furthermore, the paper presents three selected spacecraft guidance algorithms for asteroid intercept and rendezvous missions. The selected algorithms are classical Proportional Navigation (PN) based guidance that use a first order difference to compute the derivatives, Three Plane Proportional Navigation (TPPN), and the Kinematic Impulse (KI). A manipulated Bennu orbit that has been changed to impact Earth will be used as a demonstrative example to compare the three methods. In addition, a hybrid approach that is a combination between proportional navigation and kinematic impulse will be investigated to find an effective, error tolerant, and power saving approach. A 3-dimension mission scenario for both the asteroid and the interceptor spacecraft software simulator is developed for testing of the controllers. The current result demonstrates that a miss distance magnitude of less than 10m is found using the PN and TPPN guidance laws for small asteroid in the presence of error in the spacecraft states. Moreover, the paper presents these results and also the hybrid control approach simulation results.

asteroid↗