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At least 865 records · Page 48

Preliminary Model Comparison Results From the Sim-SEQ Project Using TOUGH2, STOMP, Eclipse, and VESA Approach

Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are initially limited to one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. One of the conceptual models, developed by the LBNL team, is based on TOUGH2/EOS7C. In this paper, we present some preliminary model predictions of the S-3 site using the TOUGH2/EOS7C simulator. We also compare the predictions of the TOUGH2 simulator with three other conceptual models, developed by three different organizations, of the S-3 site.

carbon sequestration↗

3D simulations of inertial confinement fusion implosions part 1: inline modeling of polarized cross beam energy transfer and subsequent drive anomalies on OMEGA and NIF

Inertial confinement fusion experiments are sensitive to cross-beam energy transfer (CBET), a laser-plasma instability that redistributes laser energy in the coronal plasma through self-generated ion acoustic wave (IAW) gratings. The detailed CBET coupling depends on the polarization state of the crossing wavefields. CBET itself can also scramble the beam polarizations by inducing ellipticity through the IAW grating, and rotating the seed polarization toward that of the pump. We develop a ray-based model that describes the polarized CBET coupling and that is compatible with the framework of 3D inline radiative hydrodynamics simulations. The model is implemented in the ASTER/IFRIIT code and verified against an academic test case and an offline polarized CBET post-processor. It is then applied to the detailed configuration of the distributed polarization rotator system on OMEGA, where results highlight how polarized CBET induces significant low modes in the collisional absorption source term. Finally, the modeling is applied to a simple indirect-drive configuration, comparing CBET calculations with 96 unpolarized or polarized beams with 24 unpolarized quads. It is shown that these cases produce similar power amplification per cone of beams grouped with similar polar angles. However, the 96 beam geometry itself is found to reduce azimuthal variations in quad power after the interaction and favors beams with larger polar angles within the cones, an effect that is amplified by the polarized CBET. Application of the model to inline calculations of OMEGA implosions are presented in a companion paper.

3D inline modeling↗

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Can Single-Walled Carbon Nanotube Diameter Be Defined by Catalyst Particle Diameter?

The need of designing and controlling single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) properties is a challenge in a growing nanomaterials-related industry. Recently, great progress has been made experimentally to selectively control SWCNT diameter and chirality. However, there is not yet a complete understanding of the synthesis process, and there is a lack of mathematical models that explain nucleation and diameter selectivity of stable carbon allotropes. Here, in situ analysis of chemical vapor deposition SWCNT synthesis confirms that the nanoparticle-to-nanotube diameter ratio varies with the catalyst particle size. It is found that the tube diameter is larger than that of the particle below a specific size (dc ≈ 2 nm) and above this value is smaller than particle diameters. Additionally, to explain these observations, we develop a statistical mechanics based model that correlates possible energy states of a nascent tube with the catalyst particle size. This model incorporates the equilibrium distance between the nucleating SWCNT layer and the metal catalyst (e.g., Fe, Co, and Ni) evaluated with density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The theoretical analysis explains and predicts the observed correlation between tube and solid particle diameters during growth of supported SWCNTs. This work also brings together previous observations related to the stability condition for SWCNT nucleation. Tests of the model against various published data sets and our own experimental results show good agreement, making it a promising tool for evaluating SWCNT synthesis processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimation of constituent properties of concrete materials with an artificial neural network based method

Multi-scale models are developed for heterogeneous concrete materials to estimate their macroscopic mechanical properties in terms of micro-structural data. One crucial challenge of those models is the identification of local properties of constituent phases. In this paper, we present an efficient method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Typical concrete materials are taken as example. A macroscopic analytical strength criterion is established from three steps of nonlinear homogenization procedure. The macroscopic strength of materials is determined as a function of the frictional coefficient and cohesion of solid cement particles at nanometer scale, intra-particle pores, inter-particle pores and aggregates (inclusions). The objective is to identify the nanoscopic frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particle from measured macroscopic values of uniaxial compression and tensile strengths. For this purpose, a numerical method based on the ANN is developed. With the analytical macroscopic strength criterion, sensitivity studies are first realized to identify the most important micro-structural parameters influencing the macroscopic strength of concrete. A simplified analytical macroscopic strength criterion is then proposed. A large dataset is further constructed through the inversion of the analytical strength criterion by using the aggregates volume fraction, porosity, macroscopic uniaxial tensile and compressive strengths as input variables and the frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particles as output unknowns. An ANN model containing four hidden layers and 100 neurons in each layer is constructed and trained by using this dataset. Various types of validation of the ANN model are performed. It is found that the proposed ANN based model can effectively predict the frictional coefficient and cohesion of porous cement paste at the microscopic scale with a very good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Moving Bed Chemical Looping Combustion Fuel Reactor Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is a novel, coal-based power generation technology that has currently achieved only small-scale, non-integrated development status, with the fuel reactor being the key developmental component in the CLC process. Both circulating fluidized bed (CFB) and moving bed fuel reactors have been the subjects of ongoing development campaigns. The objective of the effort described in this report is to characterize a moving bed fuel reactor by applying more detailed, reaction kinetics-based models that represent the nature of this reactor with a more fundamental foundation than has previously been reported by developers. This report describes the modeling basis, and a “base” fuel reactor’s design and performance characteristics resulting from the model. A major focus of the evaluation has been placed on studies of the sensitivity of the base moving bed fuel reactor performance, design, and CLC power plant cost implications to the key parameters.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

Wood Decomposition: Understanding Processes Regulating Carbon Transfer to Soil Carbon Pools Using FACE Wood at Multiple Scales

Dead wood comprises approximately 20% of forest biomass. While it is widely recognized for its role in ecosystem functions relative to habitat and nutrient cycling, there are considerable uncertainties associated with its role in the forest carbon (C) cycle. The principal uncertainty is whether dead wood contributes to the soil C pool. With little supporting evidence, the presumption is that C in wood is respired back to the atmosphere through decomposition processes. The inability to attribute forest soil C to its source components has been a barrier to addressing this important forest carbon cycle question. The U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment produced wood that has a distinct δ 13 C signature that can be used to trace its fate through organic matter decomposition processes. Using two hardwood species (aspen, birch) from the Rhinelander FACE site and pine from the Duke FACE site, the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment (FWDE) was established in 2011 to provide the foundation for addressing wood decomposition and its associated processes at the continental scale. Plots were installed on nine experimental forests representing a range in bioclimatic forest conditions within the continental U.S. Each identical plot has logs of the three species incubating on the soil surface and pine logs suspended in the air, representing standing dead wood. Abiotic conditions are monitored continuously, and soil and forest conditions characterized. Logs on the sites have been measured every two years to assess decay. This project was initiated in 2016 with specific objectives to: (a) determine whether dead wood C contributes to the soil C pool, (b) assess the fungal community composition mediating the decay, (c) assess the interactions of termites with microbial decay, and (d) develop a mechanistic model to simulate wood decomposition. The principal field sampling was conducted in 2017; correspondingly, the results reported here represent six years of decomposition. Wood decomposition varied from 13 to 75 % loss across the bioclimatic gradient. Sites in the southeastern U.S. coastal plain and piedmont had fastest decomposition rates for each of the species. In contrast sites in the Rocky Mountains had the slowest decay rates, which were associated with cold temperatures. Standing deadwood decomposes at a much slower rate than logs on the soil surface; a response due to differences in wood moisture content. Wood carbon was measured in the mineral soil across each of the sites; accordingly, this is the first study to affirm that a portion of the wood C does become part of the soil C pool. Averaged across the FWDE sites, approximately 1.4% of the soil C in the upper 10 cm of the mineral soil directly beneath the log was derived from the deadwood; within 50 cm of the log, wood C accounted for an average of 2.1%. These results demonstrate that the contribution of deadwood to the soil C pool is a soil volume surrounding the log; and it’s likely a larger volume than what we sampled. We also hypothesized that there would be more wood C in the mineral soil when termites were present. However, that hypothesis wasn’t supported by measurements on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion (SEF-TX) plots under FACE logs that incubated for 6 years. Across all the sites, the majority of the wood C was transferred to the atmosphere. Approximately 7,000 fungal species were sequenced. The fungal communities were different among each of the sites suggesting local colonization; interestingly, within sites the three species also exhibited differences in fungal community composition. White rot was the dominant fungal form in pine and hardwood, which yields less lignin in the wood residue. Brown rot occurred in approximately 20% of the pine and aspen logs, and it did not occur in birch logs. The occurrence of brown rot was only weakly correlated to site factors. We conducted two additional experiments to assess the effects of termites on wood decomposition and the associated interactions with the fungal community. Pine and birch logs were incubated on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion plots in upland and riparian settings. There was no difference in decay between areas where termites were able colonize and plots where they had been excluded. Highly variable foraging by termites was a primary contributor the result. Correspondingly, fungal communities did not vary on logs incubated among the two treatments, but they did reflect site and species differences. The second experiment was conducted on each of the nine FWDE sites where pine and birch wood blocks were incubated for two years with and without a wrapping designed to exclude termites and other arthropods. The effects of termites on wood decomposition could be confirmed on two of the four sites known to have subterranean termites. On the two southeastern sites, termites contributed approximately 8% to mass loss in pine blocks over two years. A major factor clouding the role of termites in wood decomposition is the inability to assess the time, duration, and intensity of the foraging with the logs. Another uncertainty is related to whether a piece of wood will be foraged. A process-based wood decomposition model was developed representing biological processes mediated by fungi, bacteria, termites, beetles, as well as physical and chemical processes. The Coarse Wood Decomposition Model (CWDM) was parameterized based on a thorough review of the literature and it was validated using data from the FWDE. In the initial setup, the model considers softwoods and hardwoods groups, as opposed to individual species. Sensitivity analyses incorporating climate data from 89 locations in North America demonstrated that CWDM was stable from the tropics to the boreal zone. Model calibration and validation showed it to perform very well. The CWDM is poised for additional testing with subsequent FWDE data as well as other data sets, and it is available for incorporation into forest biogeochemical models or DOEs Earth System Modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Coupled Theoretical and Experimental Approach to Elucidating the Mechanisms of Methyl Esters

The goal of this project was to probe fundamental kinetics questions regarding the gas phase reactive behavior of oxygenates. In order to succeed, our program necessitated both the development of new experimental tools and the development of theory based kinetic models to explain the chemistry of oxygenate fuels. By using advanced hybrid additive manufacturing/ traditional manufacturing techniques to create specialized ceramic micro-reactors, the team was able to simulate extreme high-temperature environments with much greater precision and durability than was previously possible. These tiny, high-tech tubes allow researchers to capture and identify "fleeting" chemical species—molecules that exist for only a fraction of a millisecond—using sophisticated light sources and mass spectrometry. Additionally, the team supported the development of a tabletop VUV laser system for isomer detection without a synchrotron. Through this work, we have successfully mapped out the specific chemical pathways of various oxygen-rich fuels, solving long-standing mysteries about how these substances break down kinetically. Ultimately, this research provides the fundamental knowledge needed to design next-generation engines and fuels that are better for the environment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An integrated experimental-computational approach for predicting virulence in New Zealand white rabbits and humans following inhalation exposure to Bacillus anthracis spores

Inhalation of Bacillus anthracis spores can lead to an anthrax infection that can be fatal. Previously published mathematical models have extrapolated kinetic rates associated with bacterial growth in New Zealand White (NZW) rabbits to humans, but to date, actual measurements of the underlying processes associated with anthrax virulence between species have not been conducted. To address this knowledge gap, we have quantified species-specific rate constants associated with germination, proliferation, and immune cell inactivation of B. anthracis Sterne using an in vitro test platform that includes primary lung epithelial and immune cells. The generated data was then used to develop a physiologically based biokinetic model (PBBK) which quantitatively compares bacterial growth and mean time to death under lethal conditions in rabbits and humans. Simulations based upon our in vitro data and previously published in vivo data from rabbits indicate that disease progression is likely to be faster in humans than in NZW rabbits under comparable total deposited dose conditions. With the computational framework established, PBBK parameters can now be refined using experimental data for lethal B. anthracis strains (e.g. Ames) under identical conditions in future studies. The PBBK model can also be linked to existing aerosol dosimetry models that account for species-specific differences in aerosol deposition patterns to further improve the human health risk assessment of inhalation anthrax.

3-D tissue culture, B. anthracis Sterne, biothreat↗

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine Learning for First Principles Calculations of Material Properties for Ferromagnetic Materials

The investigation of finite temperature properties using Monte-Carlo (MC) methods requires a large number of evaluations of the system’s Hamiltonian to sample the phase space needed to obtain physical observables as function of temperature. DFT calculations can provide accurate evaluations of the energies, but they are too computationally expensive for routine simulations. To circumvent this problem, machine-learning (ML) based surrogate models have been developed and implemented on high-performance computing (HPC) architectures. In this paper, we describe two ML methods (linear mixing model and HydraGNN) as surrogates for first principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations with classical MC simulations. These two surrogate models are used to learn the dependence of target physical properties from complex compositions and interactions of their constituents. We present the predictive performance of these two surrogate models with respect to their complexity while avoiding the danger of overfitting the model. An important aspect of our approach is the periodic retraining with newly generated first principles data based on the progressive exploration of the system’s phase space by the MC simulation. The numerical results show that HydraGNN model attains superior predictive performance compared to the linear mixing model for magnetic alloy materials.

Eisenbach, Markus↗

A non-local, ordinary-state-based viscoelasticity model for peridynamics.

A non-local, ordinary-state-based, peridynamics viscoelasticity model is developed. In this model, viscous effects are added to deviatoric deformations and the bulk response remains elastic. The model uses internal state variables and is conceptually similar to linearized isotropic viscolelasticity in the local theory. The modulus state, which is used to form the Jacobian matrix in Newton-Raphson algorithms, is presented. The model is shown to satisfy the 2nd law of thermodynamics and is applicable to problems in solid continuum mechanics where fracture and rate effects are important; it inherits all the advantages for modeling fracture associated with peridynamics. By combining this work with the previously published ordinary-state-based plasticity model, the model may be amenable to viscoplasticity problems where plasticity and rate effects are simultaneously important. Also, the model may be extended to include viscous effects for spherical deformations as well. The later two extensions are not presented and may be the subject of further work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A probabilistic graphical model approach to stochastic multiscale partial differential equations

We develop a probabilistic graphical model based methodology to efficiently perform uncertainty quantification in the presence of both stochastic input and multiple scales. Both the stochastic input and model responses are treated as random variables in this framework. Their relationships are modeled by graphical models which give explicit factorization of a high-dimensional joint probability distribution. The hyperparameters in the probabilistic model are learned using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, which is superior to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions. Finally, we make predictions from the probabilistic graphical model using the belief propagation algorithm. Numerical examples are presented to show the accuracy and efficiency of the predictive capability of the developed graphical model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial study of notch sensitivity of Grade 91 using mechanisms motivated crystal plasticity finite element method

This report describes the development of a crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) model for the multiaxial creep rupture of Grade 91 steel. The report demonstrates that core blocks in heat pipe reactor designs will see significantly different stress states than those typically found in conventional advanced reactor components where structures can often be represented as thin-walled pressure vessels. Current design practice uses effective stress measures calibrated to biaxial creep test data to account for the effect of stress multiaxiality on rupture life. Because these models rely on biaxial data they may not be accurate for the truly 3D, triaxial states found in heat pipe microreactor core blocks. A physically-based model, like the CPFEM model developed here, may be able to more accurately represent creep rupture under triaxial stresses when compared to conventional, empirical methods. This report describes the development, implementation, and validation of such a model and then applies the model to predict the effect of stress triaxiality on rupture in Grade 91 steel. The model results are used to assess the effective stress measures currently used in high temperature design codes and makes specific recommendations on improving these effective stresses to better account for the effect of 3D stress states on rupture in Grade 91. The validation and then implementation of these recommendations in design codes and standards could lead to safer, more effective heat pipe microreactor core block designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Validation of Material Models For Automotive Carbon Fiber Composite Structures Via Physical And Crash Testing (VMM Composites Project)

As automotive fuel economy requirements increase, the push for reducing overall vehicle weight will likely include the consideration of materials that have not previously been part of mainstream vehicle design and manufacturing, including carbon fiber composites. Vehicle manufacturers currently rely on computer-aided engineering (CAE) methods as part of the design and development process, so going forward, the ability to accurately and predictably model carbon fiber composites will be necessary. If composites are to be used for structural components, this need applies to both, crash and quasi-static modeling. This final report covers the results of a five-year, $6.89M, 50% cost-shared research project between Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Advanced Materials Partnership (USAMP) under Cooperative Agreement DE-EE-0005661 known as “Validation of Material Models for Automotive Carbon Fiber Composite Structures Via Physical and Crash Testing (VMM).” The objective of the VMM Composites Project was to validate and assess the ability of physics-based material models to predict crash performance of automotive primary load-carrying carbon fiber composite structures. Simulation material models that were evaluated included micro-mechanics based meso-scale models developed by the University of Michigan (UM) and micro-plane models by Northwestern University (NWU) under previous collaborations with the DOE and Automotive Composites Consortium/USAMP, as well as five commercial crash codes: LS-DYNA, RADIOSS, VPS/PAM-CRASH, Abaqus, and GENOA-MCQ. CAE predictions obtained from seven organizations were compared with experimental results from quasi-static testing and dynamic crash testing of a thermoset carbon fiber composite front-bumper and crush-can (FBCC) system gathered under multiple loading conditions. This FBCC design was developed to demonstrate progressive crush, virtual simulation, tooling, fabrication, assembly, non-destructive evaluation and crash testing advances in order to assess the correlation of the predicted results to the physical tests. The FBCC was developed to meet a goal of 30-35% mass reduction while aiming for equivalent energy absorption as a steel component for which baseline experimental results were obtained from testing in the same crash modes. The project also evaluated crash performance of thermoplastic composite structures fabricated from commercial prepreg materials and low cost carbon fiber sourced from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The VMM Project determined that no set of predictions from a CAE supplier were found to be universally accurate among all the six crash modes evaluated. In general, crash modes that were most dependent on the properties of the prepreg were more accurate than those that were dependent on the behavior of the joints. The project found that current CAE modeling methods or best practices for carbon fiber composites have not achieved standardization, and accuracy of CAE is highly reliant on the experience of its users. Coupon tests alone are not sufficient to develop an accurate material model, but it is necessary to bridge the gap between the coupon data and performance of the actual structure with a series of subcomponent level tests. Much of the unreliability of the predictions can be attributed to shortcomings in our ability to mathematically link the effects of manufacturing and material variability into the material models. This is a subject of ongoing research in the industry. The final report is organized by key technical tasks to describe how the validation project developed, modeled and compared crash data obtained on the composite FBCC to the multiple sets of CAE predictions. Highlights of the report include a discussion of the quantitative comparison between predictions and experimental data, as well as an in-depth discussion of remaining technological gaps that exist in the industry, which are intended to spur innovations and improvements in CAE technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Learning-based Environmental Methane Detection and Intensity Prediction Models

The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH 4 ) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH 4 . Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH 4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH 4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH 4 as a regression problem. The classification model performance for CH 4 detection was evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with the top-performing model being 97.2%, 0.972, 0.945 and 0.995, respectively. The R 2 score was used to evaluate the regression model performance for CH 4 intensity prediction, with the R 2 score of the best-performing model being 0.858. The ML models developed in this study for fugitive CH 4 detection and intensity prediction can be used with fixed environmental sensors deployed on the ground or with sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mobile detection.

Majumder, Reek↗

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗