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At least 865 records · Page 48

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indexing and Querying Character Sets in One- and Two-Dimensional Words

We give a detailed review of results obtained for a relatively new problem of finding, indexing, and querying character sets, which are called fingerprints in fragments of one- and two-dimensional words, and explain basic ideas used for obtaining these results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Morse Index for Geodesic Lines on Smooth Surfaces Embedded in ℝ{sup 3}

The paper is devoted to the calculation of the Morse index on geodesic lines upon smooth surfaces embedded into the 3D Euclidean space. The interest in this theme is created by the fact that the wave field composed of the surface waves slides along the boundaries guided by the geodesic lines, which, generally speaking, give birth to numerous caustics. The same circumstance takes place in problems of the short-wave diffraction by 3D bodies in the shadowed part of the surface of the body, where the creeping waves arise. Two types of geodesic flows are considered upon the surface when they are generated by a point source and by an initial wave front, for instance, by the light-shadow boundary in the short-wave diffraction by a smooth convex body. The position of the points where geodesic lines meet caustics, i.e., focal points, is found and it is proved that all focal points are simple (not multiple) irrespective of the geometric structure of the caustics arisen. The mathematical techniques in use are based on the complexification of the geometrical spreading problem for a geodesics/rays tube.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Role of structural anisotropy in geometric birefringence of high-birefringence index-guiding PCFs: analysis by moment of inertia

We have studied the role of structural anisotropy on the geometric birefringence of four typical high-birefringence (HB) index-guiding photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) with the same air-silica structure and circular, ellipse, and rectangle air holes, respectively. The normalized difference between the moment of inertia ΔI in x and y direction of the PCF structure is utilized to quantificationally describe the structural anisotropy. We demonstrate that the phase birefringence B increases monotonously when the normalized ΔI rises in different cases of PCFs structures. In order to obtain high birefringence B, it can be an effective method to optimize the parameters of the structure to increase the normalized ΔI. This work can be not only a reference of founding the essence of geometric birefringence and proposing the optimal design of HB-IG-PCFs, but also an enlightenment for bringing the different method (compared to the finite element) into the investigation of PCFs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Ductile Tearing Resistance Indexing of Automotive Grade DP 590 Steel Sheets: EWF Testing Using DENT Specimens

The essential work of fracture (EWF) method has been explored for indexing the ductile tearing resistance of DP 590 automotive grade dual-phase steel sheet both in longitudinal (L-T) and transverse (T-L) orientations. The simplest possible test and analysis procedures have been adopted. The EWF method is found to be eminently suitable for routine quality control and product development purposes for such materials. Areas for further research for improving the experimental strategy are highlighted. For the investigated steel sheet, the estimated tearing resistance is found to be distinctly higher for the L-T orientation compared to the T-L orientation; the reason thereof merits further investigation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Suggestion of an Indicator to Evaluate Material Deposition in Resistance Spot Welding: Weld–Surface Interaction Index

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is still leading joining process in the automotive industry due to the simplicity and speed of the process. On the other hand, galvanized steel sheets provide improvement in corrosion resistance of the auto body. Material deposition has an influence on the corrosion resistance and weld strength; however, in the literature very little effort has been made to identify any weld–surface interaction numerically. In this study, a numerical approach called “Weld–Surface Interaction Index” (I{sub WSI}) has been introduced to investigate the effect of material deposition on the corrosion sensitivity of the welding zone and its periphery. A systematic investigation was carried out to better understand the effects of an electrode cap–galvanized steel sheet interface on the corrosion resistance of spot-welded steel. The chemical composition of DP600 steel sheet and Z-Trode electrode cap was analyzed by using a spectrometer. The specimens were then joined by using same caps up to 1200 welds. SEM–EDS analysis was also performed on the chosen specimens to determine the weight percentages (wt.%) of Fe, Zn and Cu. EDS analysis results and coefficient of variation wt.% of Fe, Zn and Cu were used to compose I{sub WSI} formula. In the proposed formula, wt.% of Zn represented resistivity of the cover to corrosion, while wt.% of Fe represents the vulnerability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying the anion effect of gas solubility within ionic liquids using the solvation affinity index

The solubility of gas molecules within ionic liquids (ILs) is strongly dictated by the anion effect and the free volume effect, and of these two influences, the anion effect can be challenging to predict. We evaluate a wide range of different gas solutes (O 2 , NH 3 , CH 4 , H 2 S, SO 2 , Ar, H 2 , N 2 , CO 2 ) in different ILs, and we find that the solubility is strongly correlated to one of three different IL properties, which can be directly calculated from the anion electrostatic potential (ESP) surfaces. Thus, the solutes can be grouped into three fundamental types, leading to a general descriptor, the solvation affinity index (SAI), which can identify the affinity between a wide range of gas solutes and IL solvents. The SAI of nine common industrial gases with 47 common anions are generated. Furthermore, this can provide a fast approach for pre-screening IL solvents or even for ILs embedded within porous supports.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A spatially based area–time inundation index model developed to assess habitat opportunity in tidal–fluvial wetlands and restoration sites

The hydrodynamics of tidal wetland areas in the lower Columbia River floodplain and estuary directly affect habitat opportunity for endangered salmonid fishes. Physical and biological structures and functions in the system are directly affected by inundation patterns influenced by tidal cycles, hydropower operations, river discharge, upriver water withdrawals, climate, and physical barriers such as dikes, culverts, and tide gates. Ongoing ecosystem restoration efforts are intended to increase the opportunity for salmon to access beneficial habitats by hydrologically reconnecting main-stem river channels and diked areas within the historical floodplain. To address the need to evaluate habitat opportunity, a geographic information system-based Area-Time Inundation Index Model (ATIIM) was developed. Additionally, the ATIIM integrates in situ or modeled hourly water-surface elevation (WSE) data and advanced terrain processing of high-resolution elevation data. The ATIIM uses a spatially based wetted-area algorithm to determine site average bankfull elevation, two- and three-dimensional inundation extent, and other site metrics. Hydrological process metrics such as inundation frequency, duration, maximum area, and maximum frequency area can inform evaluation of proposed restoration sites; e.g., determine trade-offs between WSE and habitat opportunity, contrast alternative restoration designs, predict impacts of altered flow regimes, and estimate nutrient and biomass fluxes. In an adaptive management framework, this model can be used to provide standardized site comparisons and effectiveness monitoring of changes in the developmental trajectories of restoration sites. Overall, results are presented for 11 wetlands representative of tidal marshes, tidal forested wetlands, and restoration sites.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A risk index for multicriterial selection of a logging system with low environmental impact

Setting up the working stages in forest operations is conditioned by environmental protection and forest health requirements. This paper exposes a method for improving the decision-making process by choosing the most environmentally effective logging systems according to terrain configuration and stand characteristics. Such a methodology for selecting machines or logging systems accounting for environment, safety as well as economics, becomes mandatory in the context of sustainable management of forest with multiple functions. Based on analytic hierarchy process analysis the following classification of the environmental performance for four considered alternatives was obtained: skyline system (42.43%), forwarder system (20.22%), skidder system (19.92%) and horse logging system (17.43%). Further, an environmental risk matrix for the most important 28 risk factors specific to any work equipment used in forest operations was produced. In the end, a multicriterial analysis generated a risk index RI ranging between 1.0 and 3.5, which could help choosing the optimal combination of logging system and logging equipment with low environmental impact. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach, a simple application in specific conditions of a harvesting site is presented. - Highlights: • We propose a decision-making algorithm to select eco-friendly logging systems. • Analytic hierarchy process was applied for ranking 4 types of logging systems. • An environmental risk matrix with 28 risk factors in forest operations was made up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative analysis of methods for integrating various environmental impacts as a single index in life cycle assessment

Previous studies have proposed several methods for integrating characterized environmental impacts as a single index in life cycle assessment. Each of them, however, may lead to different results. This study presents internal and external normalization methods, weighting factors proposed by panel methods, and a monetary valuation based on an endpoint life cycle impact assessment method as the integration methods. Furthermore, this study investigates the differences among the integration methods and identifies the causes of the differences through a case study in which five elementary school buildings were used. As a result, when using internal normalization with weighting factors, the weighting factors had a significant influence on the total environmental impacts whereas the normalization had little influence on the total environmental impacts. When using external normalization with weighting factors, the normalization had more significant influence on the total environmental impacts than weighing factors. Due to such differences, the ranking of the five buildings varied depending on the integration methods. The ranking calculated by the monetary valuation method was significantly different from that calculated by the normalization and weighting process. The results aid decision makers in understanding the differences among these integration methods, and, finally, help them select the method most appropriate for the goal at hand.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Creation of a Prognostic Index for Spine Metastasis to Stratify Survival in Patients Treated With Spinal Stereotactic Radiosurgery: Secondary Analysis of Mature Prospective Trials

Purpose: There exists uncertainty in the prognosis of patients following spinal metastasis treatment. We sought to create a scoring system that stratifies patients based on overall survival. Methods and Materials: Patients enrolled in 2 prospective trials investigating stereotactic spine radiation surgery (SSRS) for spinal metastasis with ≥3-year follow-up were analyzed. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to create a survival model. Pretreatment variables included were race, sex, age, performance status, tumor histology, extent of vertebrae involvement, previous therapy at the SSRS site, disease burden, and timing of diagnosis and metastasis. Four survival groups were generated based on the model-derived survival score. Results: Median follow-up in the 206 patients included in this analysis was 70 months (range: 37-133 months). Seven variables were selected: female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.7, P=.02), Karnofsky performance score (HR = 0.8 per 10-point increase above 60, P=.007), previous surgery at the SSRS site (HR = 0.7, P=.02), previous radiation at the SSRS site (HR = 1.8, P=.001), the SSRS site as the only site of metastatic disease (HR = 0.5, P=.01), number of organ systems involved outside of bone (HR = 1.4 per involved system, P<.001), and >5 year interval from initial diagnosis to detection of spine metastasis (HR = 0.5, P<.001). The median survival among all patients was 25.5 months and was significantly different among survival groups (in group 1 [excellent prognosis], median survival was not reached; group 2 reached 32.4 months; group 3 reached 22.2 months; and group 4 [poor prognosis] reached 9.1 months; P<.001). Pretreatment symptom burden was significantly higher in the patient group with poor survival than in the group with excellent survival (all metrics, P<.05). Conclusions: We developed the prognostic index for spinal metastases (PRISM) model, a new model that identified patient subgroups with poor and excellent prognoses.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Association of Locoregional Control With High Body Mass Index in Women Undergoing Breast Conservation Therapy for Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Purpose: Obesity, as measured by the body mass index (BMI), is a risk factor for distant recurrence and decreased survival in breast cancer. We sought to determine whether the BMI correlated with local recurrence and reduced survival in a cohort of predominantly obese women treated with breast conservation therapy. Methods and Materials: From 1998 to 2010, 154 women with early-stage invasive breast cancer and 39 patients with ductal carcinoma in situ underwent prone whole breast irradiation. Cox proportional hazards regression, Kaplan-Meier methods with the log-rank test, and multivariate analysis were used to explore the association of the outcomes with the BMI. Results: The median patient age was 60 years, and the median follow-up duration was 73 months. The median BMI was 33.2 kg/m{sup 2}; 91% of the patients were overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m{sup 2}) and 69% of the patients were clinically obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m{sup 2}). The BMI was significantly associated with the locoregional recurrence-free interval for patients with invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; P=.047). Also, a trend was seen for increased locoregional recurrence with a higher BMI (P=.09) for patients with invasive disease, which was significant when examining the outcomes with a BMI stratified by the median value of 33.2 kg/m{sup 2} (P=.008). A greater BMI was also significantly associated with decreased distant recurrence-free interval (HR, 1.09; P=.011) and overall survival (HR, 1.09; P=.004); this association remained on multivariate analysis (distant recurrence-free interval, P=.034; overall survival, P=.0007). Conclusions: These data suggest that the BMI might affect the rate of locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients. A higher BMI predicted a worse distant recurrence-free interval and overall survival. The present investigation adds to the increasing evidence that BMI is an important prognostic factor in early-stage breast cancer treated with breast conservation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Dependency of optical/UV parameters on X-ray spectral index in AGNs

The study of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) is vital in order to understand their respective nuclei bounded activity primarily triggered by the accretion disk and the associated corona. The hard X-ray emission characterised by the spectral index Γ emitted by these sources in 2-10 keV band ionizes the nearby physical features like disk, BLR, NLR and provides a radiative configuration. However, based on previous studies, there is degeneracy in the evolution of Γ across the redshift, wherein few studies display a systematic trend in the evolution and others rule out the systematic variation. Here, in the present work, we study the evolution of Γ across the redshift for a very large sample and perform further studies on the variation of Γ with optical parameters using SDSS data viz. H β & Mg II and their luminosities. Based on analysis we find that there is no change in Γ across the redshift and it does not show any correlation with the optical parameters. This strongly suggests that the Γ is influenced by the soft excess and/or reflection component and is affecting the disk and BLR region at the same strength across the redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Mg2+-Ge4+ substituting strategy for optimizing color rendering index and luminescence of YAG: Ce3+ phosphors for white LEDs

Highlights: • Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ion pairs can partially substitute the Al{sup 3+} ions of YAG successfully. With the substitution, the garnet crystal structure remains unchanged. • With increasing Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ions concentrations, the emission spectra show a progressive red-shift, from 528 to 552 nm (about 24 nm). • In white LEDs, with increasing Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ions concentrations, the CCT decreased gradually from 6798 to 3261 K and the CRI increased from 76.5 to 89.3. - Abstract: Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ions substituted YAG: Ce{sup 3+} phosphors (Y{sub 3}Al{sub 5-2x}Mg{sub x}Ge{sub x}O{sub 12}: Ce{sup 3+}) were prepared by high temperature solid state reaction method. X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning election microscope (SEM), Photoluminescence (PL) spectra and so on were used to characterize the samples. The effects of Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} concentrations on the morphology, structure, luminescence properties, fluorescence lifetime and white LED performance of YAG: Ce{sup 3+} phosphors were studied in detail. The results indicate that Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ion pairs can partially substitute the Al{sup 3+} ions of YAG successfully. With the substitution, the garnet crystal structure remains unchanged. However the emission spectra show a progressive red-shift, from 528 to 552 nm (about 24 nm). The lifetime decreased rapidly from 84 to 26 ns. In particular, the correlated color temperature (CCT) decreases gradually from 6798 to 3261 K and the color rendering index (CRI) increases from 76.5 to 89.3 with the increasing of the incorporation content of Mg{sup 2+}-Ge{sup 4+} ion pairs.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Analyzing the robustness of the yield sooting index as a measure of sooting tendency

Soot formation from combustion is linked with many issues, ranging from global warming to human health complications. To tackle these problems, measures of sooting tendency that are accurate and robust with respect to flame conditions are needed to facilitate the development of cleaner fuels and combustion technologies. The objective of this research is to analyze the accuracy and robustness of the Yield Sooting Index (YSI), a measure of sooting tendency, under different temperatures and air-to-fuel equivalence ratios (λ). In this work, the YSI of various cyclic hydrocarbons and jet fuels were measured in several methane/air coflow flames doped with small quantities (0.85% by mass of total fuel) of each test compound using two soot diagnostic techniques, color-ratio pyrometry and line-of-sight spectral radiance. The flame temperature and λ values of these doped coflow flames were varied by premixing the base methane fuel with varying amounts of nitrogen and/or air. The sensitivity of the measured YSI for the test compounds to the various temperature and λ conditions for each base flame was analyzed. Here our results show that the YSI values of the cyclic hydrocarbons and test fuels were invariant across all the investigated flame conditions, suggesting that the YSI as a measure of sooting tendency is robust across a wide range of premixed air levels and temperatures relevant to soot formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗