Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Gas sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

BISON TRISO Modeling Advancements and Validation to AGR-1 Data

BISON is a finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code. Among its unique characteristics are its ability to model 1D, 2D, and 3D geometries and its applicability to a wide variety of nuclear fuels. For the last eight years, BISON has included a beginning capability to model tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel. Recently, interest in TRISO fuel has grown, and a significant effort has been made to improve BISON’s capabilities in this area. Capability development has occurred for each material present in TRISO fuel particles: the buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon, silicon carbide, and outer pyrolytic carbon layers, as well as the fuel kernel. New elastic, creep, swelling, thermal expansion, thermal conductivity, and fission gas release (FGR) models are available. New models for the graphite matrix are also now available. Another important addition is the ability to perform statistical failure analysis of large samples of fuel particles. This new capability, which continues to grow, enables evaluation of failure due to pressure or crack formation by analyzing many thousands of particles. This enables realistic calculations of fission product release from the many particles in a TRISO-fueled reactor. These capabilities were checked via regression and verification tests. A large number of code benchmarking problems were also run, showing that BISON’s results closely match those of other software tools. Finally, a significant validation effort was completed in which fission product release, measured as part of the AGR-1 capsule experiments, was compared to BISON outputs. BISON outputs compared very well to the experimental data and to PARFUME results. Interest in BISON’s TRISO capabilities is growing, with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Westinghouse Electric Company receiving training during the past year. Multiple other entities have expressed interest in or are actively using BISON. Kairos Power, LLC, has a strong partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL) regarding the use of BISON for TRISO analysis. While its capabilities still continue to grow, BISON has already become a powerful tool for TRISO analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2016: Velocity-resolved Hβ Lags in Luminous Seyfert Galaxies

We carried out spectroscopic monitoring of 21 low-redshift Seyfert 1 galaxies using the Kast double spectrograph on the 3 m Shane telescope at Lick Observatory from 2016 April to 2017 May. Targeting active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with luminosities of λL$_{λ}$(5100 Å) ≈ 10$^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$ and predicted Hβ lags of ~20–30 days or black hole masses of 10$^{7}$–10$^{8.5}$M$_{⊙}$, our campaign probes luminosity-dependent trends in broad-line region (BLR) structure and dynamics as well as to improve calibrations for single-epoch estimates of quasar black hole masses. Here we present the first results from the campaign, including Hβ emission-line light curves, integrated Hβ lag times (8–30 days) measured against V-band continuum light curves, velocity-resolved reverberation lags, line widths of the broad Hβ components, and virial black hole mass estimates (10$^{7.1}$–10$^{8.1}$M$_{⊙}$). Our results add significantly to the number of existing velocity-resolved lag measurements and reveal a diversity of BLR gas kinematics at moderately high AGN luminosities. AGN continuum luminosity appears not to be correlated with the type of kinematics that its BLR gas may exhibit. Follow-up direct modeling of this data set will elucidate the detailed kinematics and provide robust dynamical black hole masses for several objects in this sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Humidity on Charge Decay in Varying Atmospheric Gases

Characterization of surface charge decay for varying materials – PTFE, Acrylic, and metals – of 100 mm diameter, radially symmetric bodies was performed. In a gaseous environment, charged materials will lose their charge depending on gas type, humidity, and other environmental factors. Eventually, the charge will be (1) neutralized by ions or electrons in the surrounding gas (2) distributed by conduction on the material surface or in its volume (3) or neutralized by ions or electrons in the material surface and volume. Metal and polymer samples are charged to a known potential in the tens of kilovolts range, and the decaying voltage is monitored with a non-contact probe until the potential reaches near zero. Humidity has an impact on both groups of materials. As a baseline, in air at 42% relative humidity in an enclosed chamber, a positive charge equivalent to 20 kV potential on a metal sphere of 50 mm radius decays to near zero within 25 minutes. In contrast, the same sphere negatively charged decays slightly faster within 20 minutes. Overall, the humidity has a significant effect on the charge decay time, such that an order of magnitude longer times (hours) are observed at low humidity. Effects of chamber size were also studied, drawing a connection to charge carriers in the air available for decay, with chambers of volume(s): 3.3 105 cm3 and 1.4 106 cm3, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Method and apparatus for in situ synthesis of SiC, SiC ceramic matrix composites, and SiC metal matrix composites during additive manufacturing

Methods and apparatuses for in situ synthesis of SiC, CMCs, and MMCs are disclosed, comprising: providing an apparatus having: an electromagnetic energy source; an autofocusing scanner; a powder system for SiC and one or more powders; a powder delivery system; a shielding gas comprising argon and/or nitrogen; and a computer coupled to and configured to control the energy source, scanner, powder system, and powder delivery system to deposit layers of the sample; programming the computer with specifications of the sample; using the computer to control electromagnetic radiation, mixing ratio, and powder deposition parameters based on the specifications of the sample; and using the autofocusing scanner to focus and scan the electromagnetic radiation onto the sample while the powders are concurrently deposited by the powder delivery system onto the sample to create a melting pool to deposit one or more layers onto the sample. Other embodiments are described and claimed.

Liu, Jian↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scale and Regionality of Nonelectric Markets for U.S. Nuclear Light Water Reactors

This study assesses existing and potential industries that could conceivably be directly coupled to existing nuclear reactors. The goal is to identify the scale, location, and accessibility of the candidate industrial-product markets, as well as process feedstocks that are available near the plants to establish new industries. For example, CO 2 as a feedstock can be combined with H 2 to produce formic acid (FA), transportation fuels, and lubricants. These new plants can be entirely supported with the heat and electricity provided by a nearby NPP. The potential demand for nonelectric industrial products was assessed by documenting current and possible growth of nonelectricity product markets considered. This assessment used DOE- and industry-supported tools, data, and projections to capture regional industrial market opportunities. Electricity-capacity markets that reward large and reliable generators, such as NPPs, were considered because the electricity market will likely continue to be an important revenue source to NPPs. The key is to balance the needs of energy customers so as to optimize revenue for the affiliated energy customers or partners. In most cases, flexible plant energy delivery and power generation for the grid will require either energy storage or a stock of intermediate products to sustain the industrial customers when the NPP dispatches electricity to the grid. A diverse mix of temperate regions with operating NPPs around the U.S.—representing a variety of operating markets, local generation mix, and seasonal climates—were chosen for this market study. Both current and future market opportunities for candidate industrial-product markets surrounding these NPPs were studied. Figure 2 illustrates the regions chosen for this study. The success of developing nonelectric industrial-product markets as alternative revenue-generating sources for LWRs depends, not only on demand from growing existing markets, such as petroleum refining and NH 3 production, but also on the development of new markets such as light-duty (LD) and heavy-duty (HD) hydrogen FCEVs, synfuels, chemical production, biofuels, metal refining, injection of hydrogen into NG pipelines for gas power-generating units, FA, polymers, and close-coupled industrial heat applications, all of which can significantly increase demand relative to current levels while decarbonizing energy sectors. This study also presents a sample analysis of the economics of hydrogen production in an area of Minnesota, considering the capital and operating costs of a hydrogen plant as well as the local market demand for hydrogen. It includes some assumptions on electricity-grid pricing, showing how hydrogen could be integrated with an NPP and be competitive with the incumbent hydrogen-production process, steam methane reforming (SMR). The objectives of this study include: Provide U.S. NPP operators a robust sampling of the market demand location, scale, and accessibility (including storage and transportation) of the wide variety of industrial-product choices that can be produced using nuclear thermal energy and electricity proximate to a subset of U.S. NPPs to inform the industry of the potential opportunity; show examples and trade-off analyses of how U.S. LWR operators can access these markets, including storage and transportation of industrial products to their intended markets; and present a general analysis example for one industrial product (hydrogen) in one region (Minnesota area), including production, storage, and transportation, to show how nuclear-hybrid integrated energy systems (IESs) could access local markets and improve the profitability of an NPP.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-Volume Injection and Assessment of Reference Standards for n -Alkane δD and δ 13 C Analysis via Gas Chromatography Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry

Compound-specific stable isotope analysis of hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ 13 C) in organic compounds is a valuable tool in biogeochemical research. A key limitation of this method is the relatively large amount of sample required to achieve desirable precision. We developed a large-volume (20 μL) injection method that allows for high throughput analysis of less concentrated samples and tested it for δ 13 C and δD measurements of n-alkanes. We also conducted a comparison of reference standards and assessed several methods to normalize and correct n-alkane δD and δ13C measurements. The mean precision of the δD method based on 233 environmental n-alkane samples (two to three replications per sample) is 4.0‰ (1σ, estimated from the weighted mean of the pooled unbiased standard deviations) and 0.46‰ (1σ) for δ 13 C from 37 environmental samples (two to three replications per sample). The evaluation of reference standards shows that the use of n-alkane standards with large offsets in δD values in adjacent n-alkane chains can lead to biases in measurement correction. The large-volume injection method shows good reproducibility of δ 13 C and δD measurements of n-alkanes and reduces the required sample concentration by about 80%. We propose that for δD measurements, a reference standard set should be used in which each reference standard has a limited range of δD values and no adjacent n-alkane chains, to minimize memory effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of gas phase nucleation of nanodiamond in microwave plasma assisted chemical vapor deposition

The mechanism of ballas-like nanodiamond formation still remains elusive, and this work attempts to analyze its formation in the framework of activation energy (Ea) of nanodiamond films grown from a H2/CH4 plasma in a 2.45 GHz chemical vapor deposition system. The Ea was calculated from the Arrhenius equation corresponding to the thickness growth rate using substrate temperature (∼1000−1300 K) in all the calculations. While the calculated values matched with the Ea for nanodiamond formation throughout the literature, these values of ∼10 kcal/mol were lower compared to ∼15–25 kcal/mol for standard single crystal diamond (SCD) formation, concluding thus far that the energetics and processes involved were different. Further, the substrate preparation and sample collection method were modified while keeping the growth parameters constant. Unseeded Si substrate was physically separated from the plasma discharge by a molybdenum disk with a pinhole drilled in it. Small quantity of a sample substance was collected on the substrate. The sample was characterized by electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy, confirming it to be nanodiamond, thus suggesting that nanodiamond self-nucleated in the plasma and flowed to the substrate that acted as a mere collection plate. It is hypothesized then, if nanodiamond nucleates in gas phase, gas temperature has to be used in the Arrhenius analysis. The Ea values for all the nanodiamond films were re-calculated using the simulated gas temperature (∼1500−2000 K) obtained from a simple H2/CH4 plasma model, giving new values within the range characteristic to SCD formation. Based on these findings, a unified growth mechanism for nanodiamond and SCD is proposed, concluding that the rate-limiting reactions for nanodiamond and SCD formation are the same.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower

In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gas-phase metallicity determinations in nearby AGNs with SDSS-IV MaNGA: evidence of metal-poor accretion

ABSTRACT We derive the metallicity (traced by the O/H abundance) of the narrow-line region (NLR) of 108 Seyfert galaxies as well as radial metallicity gradients along their galaxy discs and of these of a matched control sample of no active galaxies. In view of that, observational data from the SDSS-IV MaNGA survey and strong emission-line calibrations taken from the literature were considered. The metallicity obtained for the NLRs was compared to the value derived from the extrapolation of the radial oxygen abundance gradient, obtained from H ii region estimates along the galaxy disc, to the central part of the host galaxies. We find that, for most of the objects ($\sim 80\, {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$), the NLR metallicity is lower than the extrapolated value, with the average difference ($\langle$D$\rangle$) between these estimates ranging from 0.16 to 0.30 dex. We suggest that $\langle$D$\rangle$ is due to the accretion of metal-poor gas to the AGN that feeds the nuclear supermassive black hole (SMBH), which is drawn from a reservoir molecular and/or neutral hydrogen around the SMBH. Additionally, we look for correlations between D and the electron density (Ne), [O iii]λ5007, and H α luminosities, extinction coefficient (AV) of the NLRs, as well as the stellar mass (M*) of the host galaxies. Evidence of an inverse correlation between the D and the parameters Ne, M*, and Av was found.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Fluid Flow Regime, Permeability, and Diffusivity in Mudrocks from Multiscale Pore Characterisation

In geoenergy applications, mudrocks prevent fluids to leak from temporary (H 2 , CH 4 ) or permanent (CO 2 , radioactive waste) storage/disposal sites and serve as a source and reservoir for unconventional oil and gas. Understanding transport properties integrated with dominant fluid flow mechanisms in mudrocks is essential to better predict the performance of mudrocks within these applications. In this study, small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) experiments were conducted on 71 samples from 13 different sets of mudrocks across the globe to capture the pore structure of nearly the full pore size spectrum (2 nm–5 μm). We develop fractal models to predict transport properties (permeability and diffusivity) based on the SANS-derived pore size distributions. The results indicate that transport phenomena in mudrocks are intrinsically pore size-dependent. Depending on hydrostatic pore pressures, transition flow develops in micropores, slip flow in meso- and macropores, and continuum flow in larger macropores. Fluid flow regimes progress towards larger pore sizes during reservoir depletion or smaller pore sizes during fluid storage, so when pressure is decreased or increased, respectively. Capturing the heterogeneity of mudrocks by considering fractal dimension and tortuosity fractal dimension for defined pore size ranges, fractal models integrate apparent permeability with slip flow, Darcy permeability with continuum flow, and gas diffusivity with diffusion flow in the matrix. This new model of pore size-dependent transport and integrated transport properties using fractal models yields a systematic approach that can also inform multiscale multi-physics models to better understand fluid flow and transport phenomena in mudrocks on the reservoir and basin scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

AGR-5/6/7 Experiment Monitoring and Simulation Progress

Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)--5/6/7 is the last of a series of AGR experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) low-enriched fuel for use in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. The test train contains five separate capsules that are independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contains multiple 12.51 mm long compacts filled with low-enriched uranium carbide/oxide (UCO) TRISO fuel particles. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment are to: 1. Irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification. 2. Establish operating margins for the fuel beyond normal operating conditions. 3. Provide irradiated fuel performance data and irradiated fuel samples for post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGR-5/6/7 Experiment Monitoring and Simulation Progress

Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)--5/6/7 is the last of a series of AGR experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) low-enriched fuel for use in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. The test train contains five separate capsules that are independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contains multiple 12.51 mm long compacts filled with low-enriched uranium carbide/oxide (UCO) TRISO fuel particles. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment are to: 1. Irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification. 2. Establish operating margins for the fuel beyond normal operating conditions. 3. Provide irradiated fuel performance data and irradiated fuel samples for post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of different getter substrates using two-dimensional gas chromatography with time of flight mass spectrometry

We report while understanding hydrogen uptake by organic based getters such as 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene (DEB) combined with a palladium(0)bis(dibenzylideneacetone) (Pd(dba) 2 ) catalyst is essential, another crucial element to understand is the decomposition of the DEB, Pd(dba) 2 , and/or substrate material. The breakdown of these materials may create unwanted volatiles, which may interact with and lead to deterioration of sensitive materials. Moreover, it is critical to understand if different substrates cause the getter and/or catalyst to degrade in different manners. Utilizing comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS), the presence of volatiles located in the headspace of various DEB/Pd(dba) 2 getter substrates is examined. These samples include a getter infused silicone foam, a hydrogenated getter infused silicone foam, an activated carbon getter pellet, and a hydrogenated activated carbon getter pellet. Application of Fisher ratio (F-ratio) analyses lead to the identification of several compounds that are generated or consumed through the hydrogenation process. These include benzene derivatives such as bibenzyl, benzaldehyde, and vinyl benzoate in the activated carbon pellets and 1,5-diphenyl-3-pentanone, toluene, styrene, and 1–1'(2-pentene 1,5-diyl)bis benzene in the silicone foams, and alkane/alkene derivatives such undecane, 4-tridecene, and decane in the activated carbon pellets and 2,6-dimethyl undecane in the silicone foams. Further comparison of the different hydrogenated getter substrates (e.g. activated carbon pellet and silicone foam) indicates that the different substrates alter the decomposition products created from the degradation of the DEB and Pd(dba) 2 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗