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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields using load estimations via state observers

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields usually involves temporal superposition of its characteristic g-function, using load aggregation schemes to reduce computational times. Assuming that the ground has linear properties, it can be modeled as a linear state space system where the states are the aggregated loads. However, the application and accuracy of these models is compromised when the borefield is already operating and its load history is not registered or there are gaps in the data. This paper assesses the performance of state observers to estimate the borefield load history and obtain accurate fluid predictions. Results show that both Time-Varying Kalman Filter (TVKF) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) provide predictions with average and maximum errors below 0.1 $^\circ C$ and 1 $^\circ C$ respectively. MHE outperforms TVKF in terms of n-step ahead output predictions and load history profile at the expenses of about 5 times more computational time.

Figueroa, Iago C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of machine-learning-enhanced Bayesian quantum state estimation

Machine learning (ML) has found broad applicability in quantum information science in topics as diverse as experimental design, state classification, and even studies on quantum foundations. Here, we experimentally realize an approach for defining custom prior distributions that are automatically tuned using ML for Bayesian quantum state estimation methods that generally better conform to the physical properties of the underlying system than standard fixed prior distributions. Previously, researchers have looked to Bayesian quantum state tomography for advantages like uncertainty quantification, the return of reliable estimates under any measurement condition, and minimal mean-squared error. However, practical challenges related to long computation times and conceptual issues concerning how to incorporate prior knowledge most suitably can overshadow these benefits. Using both simulated and experimental measurement results, we demonstrate that ML-defined prior distributions reduce net convergence times and provide a natural way to incorporate both implicit and explicit information directly into the prior distribution. These results constitute a promising path toward practical implementations of Bayesian quantum state tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Femtosecond pulse parameter estimation from photoelectron momenta using machine learning

Abstract Deep learning models have provided huge interpretation power for image-like data. Specifically, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated incredible acuity for tasks such as feature extraction or parameter estimation. Here we test CNNs on strong-field ionization photoelectron spectra, training on theoretical data sets to ‘invert’ experimental data. Pulse characterization is used as a ‘testing ground’, specifically we retrieve the laser intensity, where ‘traditional’ measurements typically lead to 20% uncertainty. We report on crucial data augmentation techniques required to successfully train on theoretical data and return consistent results from experiments, including accounting for detector saturation. The same procedure can be repeated to apply CNNs in a range of scenarios for strong-field ionization. Using a predictive uncertainty estimation, reliable laser intensity uncertainties of a few percent can be extracted, which are consistently lower than those given by traditional techniques. Using interpretability methods can reveal parts of the distribution that are most sensitive to laser intensity, which can be directly associated with holographic interferences. The CNNs employed provide an accurate and convenient ways to extract parameters, and represent a novel interpretational tool for strong-field ionization spectra.

Szołdra, Tomasz (ORCID:0000000228970506)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A semi-analytic estimate for the effective sound speed counterterm in the EFTofLSS

The Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) has found tremendous success as a perturbative framework for the evolution of large scale structure, and it is now routinely used to compare theoretical predictions against cosmological observations. The model for the total matter field includes one nuisance parameter at 1-loop order, the effective sound speed, which can be extracted by matching the EFT to full N-body simulations. In this work we first leverage the Layzer-Irvine cosmic energy equation to show that the equation of state can be exactly computed with knowledge of the fully nonlinear power spectrum. When augmented with separate universe methods, we show one can estimate the effective sound speed. This estimate is in good agreement with simulation results, with errors at the few tens of percent level. Here, we apply our method to investigate the cosmology dependence of the effective sound speed and to shed light on what cosmic structures shape its value.

Cosmological perturbation theory in GR and beyond↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Sensitivity of GPz Estimates of Photo-z Posterior PDFs to Realistically Complex Training Set Imperfections

The accurate estimation of photometric redshifts is crucial to many upcoming galaxy surveys, for example, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Almost all Rubin extragalactic and cosmological science requires accurate and precise calculation of photometric redshifts; many diverse approaches to this problem are currently in the process of being developed, validated, and tested. In this work, we use the photometric redshift code GPz to examine two realistically complex training set imperfections scenarios for machine learning based photometric redshift calculation: (i) where the spectroscopic training set has a very different distribution in color–magnitude space to the test set, and (ii) where the effect of emission line confusion causes a fraction of the training spectroscopic sample to not have the true redshift. By evaluating the sensitivity of GPz to a range of increasingly severe imperfections, with a range of metrics (both of photo-z point estimates as well as posterior probability distribution functions, PDFs), we quantify the degree to which predictions get worse with higher degrees of degradation. In particular, we find that there is a substantial drop-off in photo-z quality when line-confusion goes above ~1%, and sample incompleteness below a redshift of 1.5, for an experimental setup using data from the Buzzard Flock synthetic sky catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model-based real-time surface heat flux and temperature estimation for the DIII-D tokamak

A control-oriented model for monitoring of wall power flux densities on the DIII-D tokamak has been successfully implemented and validated experimentally. Future reactors will have to withstand severe steady state high heat flux loads on plasma-facing components (PFCs). Due to the difficulty of directly-measuring local heat fluxes on these components, monitoring and protection of PFCs during the plasma discharge can benefit from simplified physics-based real-time (RT) functional models to estimate and guide heat load control. As a first step into the development, a control-oriented model for monitoring of wall power flux densities and temperatures on DIII-D tokamak has been successfully implemented. The paper discusses the experimental demonstration and comparison of the 2-D model-based wall heat flux algorithm on the DIII-Dinner wall limiter (IWL) against infra-red camera heat flux measurements for limited plasma configurations. The paper also reports on the benchmarking of the field line tracing environment, SMITER, developed at ITER organization on DIII-D tokamak against experimental IR diagnostic data and the derivation of the component shaping weighting factors for the 2-D model-based approach. Here, the extension of the model-based approach for surface temperature estimation on the DIII-D IWL is also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tools for estimating fake/non-prompt lepton backgrounds with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements and searches performed with the ATLAS detector at the CERN LHC often involve signatures with one or more prompt leptons. Such analyses are subject to 'fake/non-prompt' lepton backgrounds, where either a hadron or a lepton from a hadron decay or an electron from a photon conversion satisfies the prompt-lepton selection criteria. These backgrounds often arise within a hadronic jet because of particle decays in the showering process, particle misidentification or particle interactions with the detector material. As it is challenging to model these processes with high accuracy in simulation, their estimation typically uses data-driven methods. Three methods for carrying out this estimation are described, along with their implementation in ATLAS and their performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor performance and burning fraction in different pellet fueling scenarios by a multi-species radial transport model

Tritium self-sufficiency in future deuterium–tritium fusion reactors is a crucial challenge. As an engineering test reactor, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor requires a burning fraction of 3% for the goal to test the accessibility to the future fusion plant. To self-consistently simulate burning plasmas with profile changes in pellet injection scenarios and to estimate the corresponding burning fraction, a one-dimensional multi-species radial transport model is developed in the BOUT++ framework. Here several pellet-fueling scenarios are then tested in the model. The results show that the increased fueling depth improves the burning fraction by particle confinement improvement and fusion power increase. Nevertheless, by increasing the depth, the pellet cooling-down may significantly lower the temperature in the core region. Taking the density perturbation into consideration, the reasonable parameters of the fueling scenario in these simulations are estimated as pellet radius ${r}_{{\rm{p}}}=3\,{\rm{mm}},$ injection rate $=\,4\,\mathrm{Hz},$ and pellet injection velocity $=\,1000\mbox{-}2000\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ without drift or $450\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ with high-field-side drift.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Paired autoencoders for likelihood-free estimation in inverse problems

Abstract We consider the solution of nonlinear inverse problems where the forward problem is a discretization of a partial differential equation. Such problems are notoriously difficult to solve in practice and require minimizing a combination of a data-fit term and a regularization term. The main computational bottleneck of typical algorithms is the direct estimation of the data misfit. Therefore, likelihood-free approaches have become appealing alternatives. Nonetheless, difficulties in generalization and limitations in accuracy have hindered their broader utility and applicability. In this work, we use a paired autoencoder framework as a likelihood-free estimator (LFE) for inverse problems. We show that the use of such an architecture allows us to construct a solution efficiently and to overcome some known open problems when using LFEs. In particular, our framework can assess the quality of the solution and improve on it if needed. We demonstrate the viability of our approach using examples from full waveform inversion and inverse electromagnetic imaging.

Chung, Matthias (ORCID:0000000178224539)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uniqueness and global optimality of the maximum likelihood estimator for the generalized extreme value distribution

The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution arises from classical univariate extreme value theory and is in common use for analysing the far tail of observed phenomena, yet important asymptotic properties of likelihood-based estimation under this standard model have not been established. In this paper, we prove that the maximum likelihood estimator is global and unique. An interesting secondary result entails the uniform consistency of a class of limit relations in a tight neighbourhood of the true shape parameter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: covariance modelling and its impact on parameter estimation and quality of fit

ABSTRACT We describe and test the fiducial covariance matrix model for the combined two-point function analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES-Y3) data set. Using a variety of new ansatzes for covariance modelling and testing, we validate the assumptions and approximations of this model. These include the assumption of Gaussian likelihood, the trispectrum contribution to the covariance, the impact of evaluating the model at a wrong set of parameters, the impact of masking and survey geometry, deviations from Poissonian shot noise, galaxy weighting schemes, and other sub-dominant effects. We find that our covariance model is robust and that its approximations have little impact on goodness of fit and parameter estimation. The largest impact on best-fitting figure-of-merit arises from the so-called fsky approximation for dealing with finite survey area, which on average increases the χ2 between maximum posterior model and measurement by $3.7{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (Δχ2 ≈ 18.9). Standard methods to go beyond this approximation fail for DES-Y3, but we derive an approximate scheme to deal with these features. For parameter estimation, our ignorance of the exact parameters at which to evaluate our covariance model causes the dominant effect. We find that it increases the scatter of maximum posterior values for Ωm and σ8 by about $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and for the dark energy equation-of-state parameter by about $5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photometric redshift estimation of BASS DR3 quasars by machine learning

ABSTRACT Correlating Beijing–Arizona Sky Survey (BASS) data release 3 (DR3) catalogue with the ALLWISE data base, the data from optical and infrared information are obtained. The quasars from Sloan Digital Sky Survey are taken as training and test samples while those from LAMOST are considered as external test sample. We propose two schemes to construct the redshift estimation models with XGBoost, CatBoost, and Random Forest. One scheme (namely one-step model) is to predict photometric redshifts directly based on the optimal models created by these three algorithms; the other scheme (namely two-step model) is to first classify the data into low- and high-redshift data sets, and then predict photometric redshifts of these two data sets separately. For one-step model, the performance of these three algorithms on photometric redshift estimation is compared with different training samples, and CatBoost is superior to XGBoost and Random Forest. For two-step model, the performances of these three algorithms on the classification of low and high redshift subsamples are compared, and CatBoost still shows the best performance. Therefore, CatBoost is regarded as the core algorithm of classification and regression in two-step model. In contrast to one-step model, two-step model is optimal when predicting photometric redshift of quasars, especially for high-redshift quasars. Finally, the two models are applied to predict photometric redshifts of all quasar candidates of BASS DR3. The number of high-redshift quasar candidates is 3938 (redshift ≥3.5) and 121 (redshift ≥4.5) by two-step model. The predicted result will be helpful for quasar research and follow-up observation of high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical abundances in Seyfert galaxies – Ⅸ. Helium abundance estimates

For the first time, the helium abundance relative to hydrogen (He/H), which relied on direct measurements of the electron temperature, has been derived in the narrow line regions (NLRs) from a local sample of Seyfert 2 nuclei. In view of this, optical emission line intensities [3000 < λ(Å) < 7000] of 65 local Seyfert 2 nuclei (z < 0.2), taken from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 15 and additional compilation from the literature, were considered. Here we used photoionization model grid to derive an Ionization Correction Factor (ICF) for the neutral helium. The application of this ICF indicates that the NLRs of Seyfert 2 present a neutral helium fraction of ~50 percent in relation to the total helium abundance. We find that Seyfert 2 nuclei present helium abundance ranging from 0.60 to 2.50 times the solar value, while ~85 percent of the sample present oversolar abundance values. The derived (He/H)–(O/H) abundance relation from the Seyfert 2 is stepper than that of star-forming regions (SFs) and this difference could be due to excess of helium injected into the interstellar medium by the winds of Wolf–Rayet stars. From a regression to zero metallicity, by using Seyfert 2 estimates combined with SFs estimates, we obtained a primordial helium mass fraction Y p = 0.2441 ± 0.0037, a value in good agreement with the one inferred from the temperature fluctuations of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck Collaboration, i.e. $Y_{p}^{Planck}$ =0.2471 ± 0.0003.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring subhalo effective density slopes from strong lensing observations with neural likelihood-ratio estimation

ABSTRACT Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter (DM) models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhaloes through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator to infer an effective density slope for populations of subhaloes. We demonstrate that our method is capable of harnessing the statistical power of multiple subhaloes (within and across multiple images) to distinguish between characteristics of different subhalo populations. The computational efficiency warranted by the neural likelihood-ratio estimator over traditional sampling enables statistical studies of DM perturbers and is particularly useful as we expect an influx of strong lensing systems from upcoming surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗