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DOE OSTI2020

Sensor Drift Estimation for Reactor Systems by Fusing Multiple Sensor Measurements

A nuclear power plant is instrumented with a variety of sensors that monitor its variables to estimate the state and initiate safety actions, if needed. We address the problem of estimating drifts or errors in sensor measurements due to factors such as calibration changes. We propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to generate an estimate of a sensor measurement, and its difference from an actual measurement provides an error estimate. We present two fusers based on the ensemble of trees and support vector machine that are trained using sensor measurements collected at an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor under no-drift conditions. We present error estimates for a differential pressure sensor of the heat exchanger of the primary coolant system, under twenty controlled scenarios using the test loop. Both positive and negative errors are captured by both methods in scenarios involving calibration drifts, blocking, air gap and electromagnetic interference. The root mean square errors of estimated drifts are typically within 2% percent of the maximum.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Hybrid Learning Techniques for Scientific Data Compression

Data compression is becoming critical for storing scientific data because many scientific applications need to store large amounts of data and post process this data for scientific discovery. Unlike image and video compression algorithms that limit errors to primary data (PD), scientists require compression techniques that accurately preserve derived quantities of interest (QoIs). Here, this article presents a physics-informed compression technique implemented as an end-to-end, scalable, GPU-based pipeline for data compression that addresses this requirement. Our hybrid compression technique combines machine learning techniques and standard compression methods. Specifically, we combine an autoencoder, an error-bounded lossy compressor to provide guarantees on raw data error, and a constraint satisfaction post-processing step to preserve the QoIs within a minimal error (generally less than floating point error). The effectiveness of the data compression pipeline is demonstrated by compressing nuclear fusion simulation data generated by a large-scale fusion code, XGC, which produces hundreds of terabytes of data in a single day. Our approach works within the ADIOS framework and results in compression by a factor of more than 150 while requiring only a few percent of the computational resources necessary for generating the data, making the overall approach highly effective for practical scenarios.

ITER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring a Low Horizontal Hydraulic Gradient in a High Transmissivity Aquifer

Abstract High transmissivity aquifers typically have low hydraulic gradients (i.e., a flat water table). Measuring low gradients using water levels can be problematic because measurement error may be greater than the true difference in water levels (i.e., a low signal‐to‐noise ratio). In this study, the feasibility of measuring a hydraulic gradient in the range of 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m was demonstrated. The study was performed at a site where the depth to water from land surface ranged from 40.1 to 94.2 m and the aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 41,300 m 2 /d (hydraulic conductivity of 18,800 m/d). The goals of the study were to reduce measurement error as much as practicable and assess the importance of factors affecting water level measurement accuracy. Well verticality was the largest source of error (0.000 to 0.168 m; median of 0.014 m), and geodetic survey of casing elevations was the next most important source of error (0.002 to 0.013 m; median of 0.005 m). Variability due to barometric pressure fluctuations was not an important factor at the site. Hydraulic heads were measured to an accuracy of ±0.0065 m, and the average hydraulic gradient was estimated to be 8.0 × 10 −6 (±0.9 × 10 −6 ) m/m. The improvement in accuracy allowed for two reversals in the groundwater flow direction to be identified, after which the gradient averaged 2.5 × 10 −5 (±0.4 × 10 −5 ) m/m. This study showed it is possible to sufficiently control sources of error to measure hydraulic gradients in the 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m range.

McDonald, John P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of finite-element models using full-field experimental data: Levelling finite-element analysis data through a digital image correlation engine

Full-field data from digital image correlation (DIC) provide rich information for finite-element analysis (FEA) validation. However, there are several inherent inconsistencies between FEA and DIC data that must be rectified before meaningful, quantitative comparisons can be made, including strain formulations, coordinate systems, data locations, strain calculation algorithms, spatial resolutions and data filtering. As such, in this paper, we investigate two full-field validation approaches: (1) the direct interpolation approach, which addresses the first three inconsistencies by interpolating the quantity of interest from one mesh to the other, and (2) the proposed DIC-levelling approach, which addresses all six inconsistencies simultaneously by processing the FEA data through a stereo-DIC simulator to ‘level’ the FEA data to the DIC data in a regularisation sense. Synthetic ‘experimental’ DIC data were generated based on a reference FEA of an exemplar test specimen. The direct interpolation approach was applied, and significant strain errorswere computed, even though therewas no model form error, because the filtering effect of theDIC enginewas neglected. In contrast, the levelling approach provided accurate validation results, with no strain error when no model form error was present. Next, model form error was purposefully introduced via a mismatch of boundary conditions. With the direct interpolation approach, the mismatch in boundary conditions was completely obfuscated, while with the levelling approach, it was clearly observed. Finally, the ‘experimental’ DIC datawere purposefully misaligned slightly fromthe FEA data. Both validation techniques suffered from the misalignment, thus motivating continued efforts to develop a robust alignment process. In conclusion, direct interpolation is insufficient, and the proposed levelling approach is required to ensure that the FEA and the DIC data have the same spatial resolution and data filtering. Only after the FEA data have been ‘levelled’ to the DIC data can meaningful, quantitative error maps be computed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Successive Procedure for Solution Verification Based on User Needs

This paper discusses a revised solution verification procedure for computational fluid dynamics simulations to estimate the uncertainties in the quantities of interest based on discretization error models. This proposed procedure builds upon current procedures described in ASME V&V 20 but provides more guidance in determining the necessary number of mesh levels to build reliable discretization error models. Such guidance is particularly useful for practicing engineers without prior experience in solution verification. The key features of this proposed solution verification procedure are the ability to determine the need for additional mesh levels iteratively and the seamless treatment for underdetermined, exact, and overdetermined solutions of the power series approximation to the discretization error models. This study applies the proposed procedure to a set of synthetic examples to demonstrate the revised procedure’s clarity in determining the number of mesh solutions required for a reliable estimate of the discretization error in computational fluid dynamics settings. Additionally, this proposed procedure prevents a potential pathway in the current procedure in ASME V&V 20 that may lead to unreasonably small discretization errors.

Weinmeister, Justin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Visualization Quality Assessment

Understanding how inaccuracies in visualizations affect users’ perception and understanding of scientific data is hard. Inaccuracies in visualizations are quite common and could arise from a range of sources such as errors in the original dataset arising from compression artifacts, errors in the capturing device, noise during transmission of the data, effects due to the algorithm being used to convert data to visualization images, images generated from neural networks, and sources we have yet to discover. Many image quality assessment metrics have been developed to quantify image errors. However, these are usually focused on “natural images” rather than visualizations of scientific data. Common image quality assessment metrics (IQAs) include MSE, PSNR, perceptual metrics such SSIM, FSIM as well as perceptual metrics using deep learning approaches. However, a critical part of understanding how errors are perceived by humans, and subsequently developing more accurate quality assessment metrics, is through user evaluation studies. The goal of this software is to develop a visualization quality assessment (VQA) process that will enable the generation of VQAs that can be used to quantify errors in scientific data visualizations. The VQA development process will include software to support user evaluation experimental design, analysis of visualization differences against standard quality metrics, and the ability to develop additional VQA metrics specific to scientific visualization images.

Grosset, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Representation of Horizontal Variability and Turbulence in Mesoscale Simulations of an Extended Cold-Air Pool Event

Abstract Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Formulation of autoconversion and drop spectra shape in shallow cumulus clouds

Two-moment autoconversion parameterizations as compared to accretion parameterizations exhibit significant errors suggesting that additional moments are needed to increase their accuracy. We develop a three-moment autoconversion parameterization using output from an LES model with size-resolved microphysics. Adding the third moment decreases the errors of parameterization and improves precipitation prediction. However, the errors are still significantly larger than errors of accretion rate. An analysis of the cloud drop size distributions (DSDs) in the simulated tropical convective cloud system reveals that most of DSDs have a significant fraction of cloud liquid water content (qc) in the mid-size droplet range (radii from 20 to 40 microns). Our data indicates that more than 30% of DSDs have over half of qc contained in the mid-size range and about 60% of spectra have, at least, one third of qc in this range. Even when the rain/drizzle mode is small (radar reflectivity Z < -10 dBZ), there is a significant number of spectra in which fraction of qc in the mid-size range is as large as 60%. These DSDs are more complex than the frequently used single-mode Gamma or Log-normal distributions, which usually do not have a considerable tail extending to the mid-size range and can be defined by three microphysical moments. The need to define DSDs by more than three moments explains the large errors in the three-moment autoconversion parameterization. The limitation of three-parameter Gamma or Log-normal distributions should be kept in mind when applying them in precipitating shallow Cu clouds.

Kogan, Yefim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Semi-Analytic Functions to Calculate the Deposition Coefficients for Ice Crystal Vapor Growth in Bin and Bulk Microphysical Models

Numerical cloud models require estimates of the vapor growth rate for ice crystals. Current bulk and bin microphysical parameterizations generally assume that vapor growth is diffusion limited, though some parameterizations include the influence of surface attachment kinetics through a constant deposition coefficient. A parameterization for variable deposition coefficients is provided herein. The parameterization is an explicit function of the ambient ice supersaturation and temperature, and an implicit function of crystal dimensions and pressure. The parameterization is valid for variable surface types including growth by dislocations and growth by step nucleation. Deposition coefficients are predicted for the two primary growth directions of crystals, allowing for the evolution of the primary habits. Comparisons with benchmark calculations of instantaneous mass growth indicate that the parameterization is accurate to within a relative error of 1%. Parcel model simulations using Lagrangian microphysics as a benchmark indicate that the bulk parameterization captures the evolution of mass mixing ratio and fall speed with typical relative errors of less than 10%, whereas the average axis lengths can have errors of up to 20%. The bin model produces greater accuracy with relative errors often less that 10%. The deposition coefficient parameterization can be used in any bulk and bin scheme, with low error, if an equivalent volume spherical radius is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conservation of Dry Air, Water, and Energy in CAM and Its Potential Impact on Tropical Rainfall

Abstract For the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), an adjustment is needed to conserve dry air mass. This adjustment exposes an inconsistency in how CAM6’s energy budget incorporates water—in CAM6 water in the vapor phase has energy, but condensed phases of water do not. When water vapor condenses, only its latent energy is retained in the model, while its remaining internal, potential, and kinetic energy are lost. A global fixer is used in the default CAM6 model to maintain global energy conservation, but locally the energy tendency associated with water changing phase violates the divergence theorem. This error in energy tendency is intrinsically tied to the water vapor tendency, and reaches its highest values in regions of heavy rainfall, where the error can be as high as 40 W m −2 annually averaged. Several possible changes are outlined within this manuscript that would allow CAM6 to satisfy the divergence theorem locally. These fall into one of two categories: 1) modifying the surface flux to balance the local atmospheric energy tendency and 2) modifying the local atmospheric tendency to balance the surface plus top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. To gauge which aspects of the simulated climate are most sensitive to this error, the simplest possible change—where condensed water still does not carry energy and a local energy fixer is used in place of the global one—is implemented within CAM6. Comparing this experiment with the default configuration of CAM6 reveals precipitation, particularly its variability, to be highly sensitive to the energy budget formulation. Significance Statement This study examines and explains spurious regional sources and sinks of energy in a widely used climate model. These energy errors result from not tracking energy associated with water after it transitions from the vapor phase to either liquid or ice. Instead, the model used a global fixer to offset the energy tendency related to the energy sources and sinks associated with condensed water species. We replace this global fixer with a local one to examine the model sensitivity to the regional energy error and find a large sensitivity in the simulated hydrologic cycle. This work suggests that the underlying thermodynamic assumptions in the model should be revisited to build confidence in the model-simulated regional-scale water and energy cycles.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

ZFP: A compressed array representation for numerical computations

HPC trends favor algorithms and implementations that reduce data motion relative to FLOPS. We investigate the use of lossy compressed data arrays in place of traditional IEEE floating point arrays to store the primary data of calculations. Simulation is fundamentally an exercise in controlled approximation, and error introduced by finite-precision arithmetic (or lossy compression) is just one of several sources of error that need to be managed to ensure sufficient accuracy in a computed result. We describe ZFP, a compressed numerical format designed for in-memory storage of multidimensional arrays, and summarize theoretical results that demonstrate that the error of repeated lossy compression can be bounded and controlled. Furthermore, we establish a relationship between grid resolution and compression-induced errors and show that, contrary to conventional floating point, ZFP reduces finite-difference errors with finer grids. We present example calculations that demonstrate data reduction by 4x or more with negligible impact on solution accuracy. Our results further demonstrate several orders-of-magnitude increase in accuracy using ZFP over IEEE floating point and Posits for the same storage budget.

Lindstrom, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward Quantity-of-Interest Preserving Lossy Compression for Scientific Data

Today's scientific simulations and instruments are producing a large amount of data, leading to difficulties in storing, transmitting, and analyzing these data. While error-controlled lossy compressors are effective in significantly reducing data volumes and efficiently developing databases for multiple scientific applications, they mainly support error controls on raw data, which leaves a significant gap between the data and user's downstream analysis. This may cause unqualified uncertainties in the outcomes of the analysis, a.k.a quantities of interest (QoIs), which are the major concerns of users in adopting lossy compression in practice. In this paper, we propose rigorous mathematical theories to preserve four families of QoIs that are widely used in scientific analysis during lossy compression along with practical implementations. Specifically, we first develop the error control theory for univariate QoIs which are essential for computing physical properties such as kinetic energy, followed by multivariate QoIs that are more commonly used in real-world applications. The proposed method is integrated into a state-of-the-art compression framework in a modular fashion, which could easily adapt to new QoIs and new compression algorithms. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method provides faithful error control on important QoIs including kinetic energy, regional average, and isosurface without trials and errors, while offering compression ratios that are up to 4x of the compression ratios provided by state-of-the-art compressors.

Jiao, Pu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring model complexity in machine learned potentials for simulated properties

Abstract Machine learning (ML) enables the development of interatomic potentials with the accuracy of first principles methods while retaining the speed and parallel efficiency of empirical potentials. While ML potentials traditionally use atom-centered descriptors as inputs, different models such as linear regression and neural networks map descriptors to atomic energies and forces. This begs the question: what is the improvement in accuracy due to model complexity irrespective of descriptors? We curate three datasets to investigate this question in terms of ab initio energy and force errors: (1) solid and liquid silicon, (2) gallium nitride, and (3) the superionic conductor Li $$_{10}$$ 10 Ge(PS $$_{6}$$ 6 ) $$_{2}$$ 2 (LGPS). We further investigate how these errors affect simulated properties and verify if the improvement in fitting errors corresponds to measurable improvement in property prediction. By assessing different models, we observe correlations between fitting quantity (e.g. atomic force) error and simulated property error with respect to ab initio values. Graphical abstract

Rohskopf, A. (ORCID:0000000227128296)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗