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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus–host interaction mechanisms

We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Format for Interchange and Display of 3D Terrain Data

Visible Scalable Terrain (ViSTa) is a software format for production, interchange, and display of three-dimensional (3D) terrain data acquired by stereoscopic cameras of robotic vision systems. ViSTa is designed to support scalability of data, accuracy of displayed terrain images, and optimal utilization of computational resources. In a ViSTa file, an area of terrain is represented, at one or more levels of detail, by coordinates of isolated points and/or vertices of triangles derived from a texture map that, in turn, is derived from original terrain images. Unlike prior terrain-image software formats, ViSTa includes provisions to ensure accuracy of texture coordinates. Whereas many such formats are based on 2.5-dimensional terrain models and impose additional regularity constraints on data, ViSTa is based on a 3D model without regularity constraints. Whereas many prior formats require external data for specifying image-data coordinate systems, ViSTa provides for the inclusion of coordinate-system data within data files. ViSTa admits highspeed loading and display within a Java program. ViSTa is designed to minimize file sizes and maximize compressibility and to support straightforward reduction of resolution to reduce file size for Internet-based distribution.

Backes, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2019

Quantum Technologies for UAS (QTech)

Recent advances in small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) technologies lower the barriers for use by both private and commercial entities. However, these advances are also likely to lead to greater vehicle densities, a more heterogenous mix of vehicles and equipment and greater levels of vehicle autonomy, which can increase the chance for communications disruptions. For the safe and secure operation of these vehicles, it is essential to have a robust communications network. This work is focused on harnessing the power of quantum technologies to enable this robust communications network by: (1) utilizing quantum optimization algorithms to design robust network with routing redundancy that can respond adaptively to dynamically changing real-time environment and disruptions, (2) utilize quantum optimization algorithms resource allocation for detection, localization, and tracking of mobile communication disruption agents and (3) utilize quantum key distribution (QKD) to execute secure key sharing in anti-jamming protocols for secure radio frequency (RF) communication. Efforts to map these quantum optimization algorithms to commercially available quantum annealers and soon to be available general-purpose gate-model quantum hardware architectures will be reviewed, and plans for testing the solutions to these algorithms through indoor sUAS flight tests will be discussed. Lastly, efforts to miniaturize and practically deploy Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) hardware, which could ultimately be used to securely exchange encryption keys, in sUAS networks will be reviewed.

Quantum Computing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is growing more critical. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation methodology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Evaluation of a Southern Company Distribution Feeder on NREL ADMS Test Bed: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to enable evaluation of a Southern Company distribution feeder on the Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) test bed. The long-term goal is to evaluate a federated distributed energy resource (DER) management solution that aggregates DERs through either direct control, transactive control or an aggregator to provide bulk services while observing distribution system voltage and power constraints. The DER aggregation needs to be coordinated with an ADMS that is responsible for reliable power delivery across the distribution systems. This project takes the first step towards enabling such evaluation by deploying an ADMS from Oracle (Southern Company's ADMS supplier) with a Southern Company feeder at NREL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Indra: a public computationally accessible suite of cosmological N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Indra is a suite of large-volume cosmological N-body simulations with the goal of providing excellent statistics of the large-scale features of the distribution of dark matter. Each of the 384 simulations is computed with the same cosmological parameters and different initial phases, with 10243 dark matter particles in a box of length 1 h−1 Gpc, 64 snapshots of particle data and halo catalogues, and 505 time-steps of the Fourier modes of the density field, amounting to almost a petabyte of data. All of the Indra data are immediately available for analysis via the SciServer science platform, which provides interactive and batch computing modes, personal data storage, and other hosted data sets such as the Millennium simulations and many astronomical surveys. We present the Indra simulations, describe the data products and how to access them, and measure ensemble averages, variances, and covariances of the matter power spectrum, the matter correlation function, and the halo mass function to demonstrate the types of computations that Indra enables. We hope that Indra will be both a resource for large-scale structure research and a demonstration of how to make very large data sets public and computationally accessible.

Falck, Bridget↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Power Plant Siting Opportunities and Constraints in the Eastern Interconnection

The electrical transmission grid is a critical part of the U.S. national infrastructure, and its modernization is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) priority. We describe the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a unique, powerful, and public web-based system with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models for more than 20 power plant technologies and many other capabilities. Through a case study on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants in the Eastern Interconnection (EI), we provide an example of incorporating an EZMT MCDA model into a larger planning context, with projections of interconnection-level capacity expansion, thermoelectric power plant retirements, and water availability. Our results provide insights on candidate NGCC site distributions and the criteria influencing them. The case study provides both an efficient methodology for performing similar analyses and hundreds of candidate NGCC power plant sites that can be studied in more detail as potential project sites.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Enhanced Computational Framework for Energy Storage Participation in Transmission Planning with Electricity Market Participation: Dynamic Market Participation Restriction Estimation

In the previous study and report, we developed a computational framework to explore the technical and economic viability of the dual use of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) for both transmission assets and market participation. The rationale for the dual-use application is to improve the resource utilization rate and reduce the cost recovery burden. A PSH-based transmission solution generally has a large capacity, which corresponds to a higher investment cost compared to a traditional line solution. Market participation may allow the PSH asset to offset part of its high investment cost. A critical question is whether it is economically and technically viable to allow dual use of a PSH-based transmission project without jeopardizing transmission system reliability. And a more specific follow-up question is how to improve market participation performance while maintaining transmission reliability. In this study, we extend the computational framework by updating the method to determine transmission service obligation requirements dynamically based on the possibility of the need for transmission service in operation. Specifically, we correlate the need for transmission service with the probability of thermal overloading on a monitored transmission line, which is essentially based on the probability distribution of power flow and its probability of exceeding the line rating based on system dispatch and operational uncertainties. In addition, the need depends on the level of risk that a system operator is willing to take. The higher the risk tolerance, the lower the requirement that the system operator would apply to the PSH project as a transmission asset. The requirements are updated every day before the PSH project determines its market participation strategy. With the updated transmission service requirements, it is expected that a PSH project can serve as a transmission asset when the transmission system is at risk and really needs it, while it can participate in a market with sufficient information and certain restrictions. In this way, the transmission service quality and market participation performance can both be improved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-TIme (DROMS-RT)

To design and demonstrate DROMS-RT, a highly distributed Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-Time (DROMS-RT) power flow control to support large scale integration of distributed renewable generation into the grid. AutoGrid developed a novel control and communications platform to allow highly dispatchable demand response (DR) services in time frames suitable for providing ancillary services to the transmission grid. These services will be substantially less expensive and more efficient than other forms of ancillary services options currently available to manage the intermittency associated with large-scale renewable integration. DROMSRT successfully leveraged Automated Demand Response (ADR) by fundamentally re-thinking the architecture of the DR platform from the ground up and by developing innovative new technologies in a number of areas related to DR. DROMS-RT leveraged the low-cost, open, interoperable DR signaling technology, OpenADR, and low-cost, internet-protocol based telemetry solutions to reduce the cost of hardware. This allowed DROMS-RT to provide dynamic price signals to millions of OpenADR clients. Statistically rigorous signal processing techniques were developed to reliably detect even small load reductions in the presence of noisy baseline profiles. Novel forecasting engines based on modern online machine learning algorithms enabled accurate individualized forecasts for customer loads in the presence of dynamic pricing signals, and a real-time decision engines enabled continuous optimization and optimal dispatch of DR resources across a large portfolio of heterogeneous loads that respond at varying time-scales. Moreover, the real-time optimization conducted by the decision engine can utilize grid physics to maximize load reduction at the transmission system in addition to the distribution sites, for more efficient grid operation. Finally, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) availability of the DROMS-RT platform has reduced the cost of deployment and enable participation of small commercial and residential customers in DR who otherwise would not be able to do so.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Standardizing Performance Metrics for Building-Level Electrical Distribution Systems

Building-level electrical distribution systems comprise a myriad of current-carrying equipment, conversion devices, and protection devices that deliver power from the utility or local distributed energy resources to end-use building loads. Electric power has traditionally been generated, transmitted, and distributed in alternating current (AC). However, the last decade has seen a significant increase in the integration of native direct current (DC) equipment that has elevated the importance of DC distribution systems. Numerous studies have comparatively examined the performance of various electrical distribution systems in buildings but have failed to achieve uniform conclusions, primarily because of a lack of consistent and analogous performance evaluation methods. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a standard set of metrics and measurement boundaries to consistently evaluate the performance of AC, DC, or hybrid AC/DC electrical distribution systems. The efficacy of the proposed approach is evaluated on a representative medium-sized commercial office building model with AC distribution and an equivalent hybrid AC/DC and DC distribution model, wherein the AC distribution model is concluded to be the most efficient. The simulation results show variation in computed metrics with different selected boundaries that verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach in ensuring consistent computation of the performance of building-level electrical distribution systems. This paper provides an initial set of guidelines for building energy system stakeholders to adopt appropriate solutions, thus leading to more efficient energy systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2006

"One-Stop Shopping" for Ocean Remote-Sensing and Model Data

OurOcean Portal 2.0 (http:// ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov) is a software system designed to enable users to easily gain access to ocean observation data, both remote-sensing and in-situ, configure and run an Ocean Model with observation data assimilated on a remote computer, and visualize both the observation data and the model outputs. At present, the observation data and models focus on the California coastal regions and Prince William Sound in Alaska. This system can be used to perform both real-time and retrospective analyses of remote-sensing data and model outputs. OurOcean Portal 2.0 incorporates state-of-the-art information technologies (IT) such as MySQL database, Java Web Server (Apache/Tomcat), Live Access Server (LAS), interactive graphics with Java Applet at the Client site and MatLab/GMT at the server site, and distributed computing. OurOcean currently serves over 20 real-time or historical ocean data products. The data are served in pre-generated plots or their native data format. For some of the datasets, users can choose different plotting parameters and produce customized graphics. OurOcean also serves 3D Ocean Model outputs generated by ROMS (Regional Ocean Model System) using LAS. The Live Access Server (LAS) software, developed by the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is a configurable Web-server program designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data. The model output can be views as plots in horizontal slices, depth profiles or time sequences, or can be downloaded as raw data in different data formats, such as NetCDF, ASCII, Binary, etc. The interactive visualization is provided by graphic software, Ferret, also developed by PMEL. In addition, OurOcean allows users with minimal computing resources to configure and run an Ocean Model with data assimilation on a remote computer. Users may select the forcing input, the data to be assimilated, the simulation period, and the output variables and submit the model to run on a backend parallel computer. When the run is complete, the output will be added to the LAS server for

Li, P. Peggy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Systems and methods for detecting and mitigating cyber attacks on power systems comprising distributed energy resources

Extensive deployment of interoperable distributed energy resources (DER) on power systems is increasing the power system cybersecurity attack surface. National and jurisdictional interconnection standards require DER to include a range of autonomous and commanded grid-support functions which can drastically influence power quality, voltage, and the generation-load balance. Investigations of the impact to the power system in scenarios where communications and operations of DER are controlled by an adversary show that each grid-support function exposes the power system to distinct types and magnitudes of risk. The invention provides methods for minimizing the risks to distribution and transmission systems using an engineered control system which detects and mitigates unsafe control commands.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

University Coalition for Fossil Fuel Energy Research

Following a nationwide open competition, the University Coalition for Fossil Energy Research (UCFER) was established in October 2015 through a cooperative agreement between Penn State and the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Penn State lead UCFER with the objective of advancing basic and applied research for clean and low-carbon energy based on fossil fuels in support of the DOE’s mission. UCFER focused on research that improves the efficiency of production and use of fossil energy resources, while minimizing the environmental impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Penn State lead a team of nine universities (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Pennsylvania State University, Princeton University, Texas A&M University, University of Kentucky, University of Southern California, The University of Tulsa, University of Wyoming, and Virginia Polytechnic and State University) during the competition stage, adding seven more universities in 2017 (Carnegie Mellon University, Louisiana State University, The Ohio State University, University of North Dakota, University of Pittsburgh, University of Utah, and West Virginia University). This Coalition exhibited a wide geographical distribution across the U.S. bringing a wide variety of fossil energy expertise. This national university alliance was a major collaborative effort with NETL to address specific topics of R&D in NETL’s mission area, which involved one or more of NETL’s five core competencies (Geologic and Environmental Systems, Materials Engineering and Manufacturing, Energy Conversion Engineering, Systems Engineering and Analysis, and Computational Science and Engineering). The first five to six months of the project was the definitization stage. During this period, Penn State worked closely with NETL to finalize the Coalition organizational structure and By- Laws, prepare a statement of substantial involvement and a statement of project objectives, and develop operations and membership plans. A major component of this stage included preparing an execution plan to solicit research, evaluate proposals, recommend selected projects to NETL, and award projects. In addition, a plan was prepared to monitor projects, review projects, disseminate knowledge from research projects and develop an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. This included developing a website and several databases. The first of six rounds of solicitations started in mid-2016. Projects from the sixth solicitation started February 1, 2021, and ended January 31, 2023. Projects that were selected represented twelve technology lines. Approximately $16.6 million in funding was available for the six solicitations. Most of the funding was provided by DOE, Office of Fossil Energy (DOEFE) with the DOE Fuel Cells Technologies Office (DOE-FCTO) providing funding for a few projects. Coalition universities submitted 259 proposals in response to the solicitations, requesting approximately $67.0 million in funding, and forty-three projects were selected. However, one project withdrew after the principal investigator left the university. The management of the Coalition projects was a major activity by Penn State. Managing the Coalition projects consisted of monitoring the projects, reviewing the projects through annual technical review meetings, disseminating knowledge from the research projects, and developing an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. Penn State’s OMT monitored projects to ensure that all milestones (technical, schedule, budget) were met, expenditures were allowable, cost share (when applicable) were reported, and all technical reports were submitted. The OMT also posted the technical reports electronically on a secure members-only website for access and review by the Coalition members. Disseminating knowledge from the research projects was done through a website, newsletters, various meetings, conferences, journal articles, publicity/press releases, and project summaries that were prepared after each project was completed. Penn State kept NETL apprised of UCFER progress through quarterly reports (thirtyone were submitted by Penn State), verbal and written communications, yearly updates at the annual technical review meetings, and cost accrual reports. The UCFER project had a significant impacty. The UCFER program established the first national university alliance in fossil energy research with a major collaboration effort with DOE NETL that addressed specific topics in NETL’s research and development mission areas. It generated inter-university collaborations, which was another program interest. Twenty-two out of 259 proposals contained collaborations (≈8.5%) and three of forty-two funded projects involved inter-university collaborations (≈7.0%). The forty-two funded projects provided support at fourteen universities involving 269 personnel. Research was conducted by 106 faculty, 115 graduate and undergraduate students, forty-six research staff and post-doctoral scholars, and two visiting scholars. Students and post-doctoral scholars were also on-site at NETL through CRADAs. In addition, non-Coalition participants included six universities and sixteen companies and national laboratories. The non-Coalition participants were involved as subcontractors, providers of cost share, performed unpaid consultation and sample analysis, served as advisory board members, or were providers of samples and materials for testing. UCFER also produced visibility in that fifty-six refereed journal articles were published, fifty-seven conference papers and twenty-three posters were prepared, 190 presentations were given, eight patent applications were filed, two books/book chapters were written, and ten software codes were developed. Collaboration between NETL and the individual projects was a major requirement for all funded projects. This included NETL staff time to support collaboration, consultation, technical guidance, sample preparation and analysis, internships at NETL, on-site testing and equipment usage by Coalition participants at NETL, co-mentoring students, and coauthoring journal articles and conference papers. Collaboration was impacted by COVID-19 in that not all on-site activities could be performed. NETL personnel were coauthors on eight of the conference papers (fourteen percent of the conference papers that were prepared) and seventeen of the journal articles (thirty percent of the journal articles that were prepared). A website was developed for an online proposal solicitation and review process and to provide exposure to UCFER. A website analysis highlighted the large amount of member and general public interest in UCFER by interpreting access statistics from March 2016 through June 2023. Visitors to the site originated from many different organizations, businesses, and countries. The website provided a means to disseminate information to both the general public and the UCFER members and was successfully used for outreach activities. In addition, NETL required that RFP release, proposal submission, and proposal reviews all be performed online. Penn State successfully developed these capabilities in a secure section of the website, which were used throughout the UCFER project. It is recognized that each project had its technical successes. In addition, highlighted successes were compiled and summarized from the research projects. Information was requested from the PIs of completed projects. In addition, Penn State’s Operations Management Team reviewed subcontract reports to identify project successes. Examples of information requested from PIs included (not all-inclusive): new projects that have been funded as a result of UCFER funding; new commercial products; establishment of a new center; new patent; new software; best paper awards; highly-cited work; and graduate student successes. A total of forty-eight highlighted successes were reported.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using the Criticality Accident Alarm System modeling capabilities in SCALE [Slides]

The following is a summary of advice for CAAS modeling in SCALE. Refer to the SCALE Criticality Safety and Radiation Shielding training slides or to the SCALE manual for exact syntax. Use a mesh for the fission source that is the most adequate for the problem to solve (coarse/fine). Don’t spend unnecessary resources; simplify the model if it does not impact the final results of interest. Be careful to deactivate secondary fissions in MAVRIC or the calculation may never end. Check that k eff and $\overline{\upsilon}$ calculated results are logical. Between KENO and MAVRIC, cross section libraries, materials, geometry, and mesh grid can be the same or different. Iterative calculations are usually complex problems that need variance reduction. It will be hard to find the best solving parameters in the first attempt; expert judgement is needed. Check each step separately. Use Fulcrum to visualize fission source, mesh source, and spatial/energy distributions to find potential errors or impactful imprecisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗