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DOE OSTI2026

Biasing from galaxy trough and peak profiles with the DES Y3 redMaGiC galaxies and the weak lensing mass map

We measure the correspondence between the distribution of galaxies and matter around troughs and peaks in the projected galaxy density, by comparing redMaGiC galaxies (0.15 < z < 0.65) to weak lensing mass maps from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data release. We obtain stacked profiles, as a function of angle θ, of the galaxy density contrast δ g and the weak lensing convergence κ, in the vicinity of these identified troughs and peaks, referred to as ‘void’ and ‘cluster’ superstructures. The ratio of the profiles depend mildly on θ, indicating good consistency between the profile shapes. We model the amplitude of this ratio using a function $F(\boldsymbol{\eta }, \theta )$ that depends on cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{\eta }$, scaled by the galaxy bias. We construct templates of $F(\boldsymbol{\eta }, \theta )$ using a suite of N-body (‘Gower Street’) simulations forward-modelled with DES Y3-like noise and systematics. We discuss and quantify the caveats of using a linear bias model to create galaxy maps from the simulation dark matter shells. We measure the galaxy bias in three lens tomographic bins (near to far): $2.32^{+0.86}_{-0.27}, 2.18^{+0.86}_{-0.23}, 1.86^{+0.82}_{-0.23}$ for voids, and $2.46^{+0.73}_{-0.27}, 3.55^{+0.96}_{-0.55}, 4.27^{+0.36}_{-1.14}$ for clusters, assuming the best-fit Planck cosmology. Similar values with ∼0.1σ shifts are obtained assuming the mean DES Y3 cosmology. The biases from troughs and peaks are broadly consistent, although a larger bias is derived for peaks, which is also larger than those measured from the DES Y3 3 × 2-point analysis. This method shows an interesting avenue for measuring field-level bias that can be applied to future lensing surveys.

cosmology: observations↗

DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXV. DR2 Broad-line-based Black Hole Mass Estimates and Biases from Obscuration

We present measurements of broad emission lines and virial estimates of supermassive black hole masses (M BH ) for a large sample of ultrahard X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) as part of the second data release of the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS/DR2). Our catalog includes M BH estimates for a total of 689 AGNs, determined from the Hα, Hβ, Mg II λ2798, and/or C IV λ1549 broad emission lines. The core sample includes a total of 512 AGNs drawn from the 70 month Swift/BAT all-sky catalog. We also provide measurements for 177 additional AGNs that are drawn from deeper Swift/BAT survey data. We study the links between M BH estimates and line-of-sight obscuration measured from X-ray spectral analysis. We find that broad Hα emission lines in obscured AGNs ($\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\gt 22.0$) are on average a factor of ${8.0}_{-2.4}^{+4.1}$ weaker relative to ultrahard X-ray emission and about ${35}_{-12}^{\,+7}$% narrower than those in unobscured sources (i.e., $\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\lt 21.5$). This indicates that the innermost part of the broad-line region is preferentially absorbed. Consequently, current single-epoch M BH prescriptions result in severely underestimated (>1 dex) masses for Type 1.9 sources (AGNs with broad Hα but no broad Hβ) and/or sources with $\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\gtrsim 22.0$. We provide simple multiplicative corrections for the observed luminosity and width of the broad Hα component (L[bHα] and FWHM[bHα]) in such sources to account for this effect and to (partially) remedy M BH estimates for Type 1.9 objects. As a key ingredient of BASS/DR2, our work provides the community with the data needed to further study powerful AGNs in the low-redshift universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades

Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of Precipitation and Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Peruvian Central Andes in Multi 5‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with two planetary boundary layer schemes, ACM2 and MYNN, convection‐permitting model (CPM) regional climate simulations were conducted for a 6‐year period, including a one‐year spin‐up period, at a 15‐km grid spacing covering entire South America and a nested convection‐permitting 3‐km grid spacing covering the Peruvian central Andes region. These two CPM simulations along with a 4‐km simulation covering South America produced by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), three gridded precipitation products, and rain gauge data in Peru and Brazil, are used to document the characteristics of precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian central Andes region. Results show that all km‐scale simulations generally capture the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and MCSs at both seasonal and diurnal scales, although biases exist in aspects such as precipitation intensity and MCS frequency, size, propagation speed, and associated precipitation intensity. The 3‐km simulation using MYNN scheme generally outperforms the other simulations in capturing seasonal and diurnal precipitation over the mountain, while both it and the 4‐km simulation demonstrate superior performance in the western Amazon Basin, based on the comparison to the gridded precipitation products and gauge data. Dynamic factors, primarily low‐level jet and terrain‐induced uplift, are the key drivers for precipitation and MCS genesis along the east slope of the Andes, while thermodynamic factors control the precipitation and MCS activity in the western Amazon Basin and over elevated mountainous regions. The study suggests model improvements and better model configurations for future regional climate projections.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: SZ-based masses and dust emission from IR-selected cluster candidates in the SHELA survey

Here we examine the stacked thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) signals for a sample of galaxy group and cluster candidates from the 24 deg 2 infrared Spitzer-HETDEX Exploratory Large Area (SHELA) survey. We identify the objects in combination with optical data using the redMaPPer algorithm, and divide them into three richness bins (λ in 10–20, 20–30, and 30–76 with average photometric redshifts of 0.80, 0.73, and 0.70, respectively). All richness bins show evidence for dust emission, which we fit using stacked profiles from Herschel Stripe 82 data. We fit for synchrotron emission using stacked profiles created by binning source fluxes from NRAO VLA Sky Survey data. We can confidently detect the SZ decrement only in the highest richness bin, finding M SZ,500 = $8.7^{+1.7}_{-1.3} \times 10^{13}\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$. Neglecting the correction for dust and synchrotron depresses the inferred mass by 26 percent, indicating a partial fill-in of the SZ decrement from dust and synchrotron emission. We compare our corrected SZ masses to two redMaPPer mass–richness scaling relations and find that the SZ mass is lower than predicted by the richness. For the lower richness bins, mass bias factors as low as 1 – b = 0.6 are not enough to bring the mass limits into agreement. We discuss possible explanations for this discrepancy. The SHELA richnesses may differ from previous richness measurements due to the inclusion of infrared data in redMaPPer. To connect the SZ signal to the mass, we use a universal gas pressure profile that is calibrated to massive clusters at low redshift. It may not be applicable to our lower mass, higher redshift sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A catalogue of cataclysmic variables from 20 yr of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey with new classifications, periods, trends, and oddities

ABSTRACT We present a catalogue of 507 cataclysmic variables (CVs) observed in SDSS I to IV including 70 new classifications collated from multiple archival data sets. This represents the largest sample of CVs with high-quality and homogeneous optical spectroscopy. We have used this sample to derive unbiased space densities and period distributions for the major sub-types of CVs. We also report on some peculiar CVs, period bouncers and also CVs exhibiting large changes in accretion rates. We report 70 new CVs, 59 new periods, 178 unpublished spectra, and 262 new or updated classifications. From the SDSS spectroscopy, we also identified 18 systems incorrectly identified as CVs in the literature. We discuss the observed properties of 13 peculiar CVS, and we identify a small set of eight CVs that defy the standard classification scheme. We use this sample to investigate the distribution of different CV sub-types, and we estimate their individual space densities, as well as that of the entire CV population. The SDSS I to IV sample includes 14 period bounce CVs or candidates. We discuss the variability of CVs across the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, highlighting selection biases of variability-based CV detection. Finally, we searched for, and found eight tertiary companions to the SDSS CVs. We anticipate that this catalogue and the extensive material included in the Supplementary Data will be useful for a range of observational population studies of CVs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increased Static Charge–Induced Threshold Voltage Shifts and Memristor Activity in Pentacene OFETs Comprising Polystyrene–Based Gate Dielectrics Containing Electroactive Small Molecule Crystallites

Top-contact bottom-gate pentacene OFETs are fabricated with single layer dielectrics comprised of either polystyrene (PS), poly(4-methylstyrene) (P4MS), or poly(4-tert-butylstyrene) (P4TBS). The polystyrenes are blended with varying concentrations of two different small molecules, dibenzotetrathiafulvalene (DBTTF) and 2,8-difluoro-5,11-bis(triethylsilylethynyl)anthradithiophene (diF-TES-ADT), to form small, separated crystallites contained throughout the polymer dielectric layer. The OFET characteristics of these devices are investigated and their threshold voltage shifts are measured after –70 V static charging for 5 min. Two-terminal measurements are conducted using multiple different gate biases in the range of –50 to +50 V to investigate memristor behavior in the devices. OFETs containing DBTTF exhibited ΔVth increases as large as 330% relative to control OFETs containing no DBTTF, while OFETs containing at least 7.5 wt.% DBTTF exhibited memristor activity, with currents ranging from 20 nA to 44 µA depending on the applied bias. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that including small, separated crystallites in polymer dielectrics enhances their charge storage ability and can be promising for creating nonbinary memory devices for data processing. Additionally, the observed memristor activity indicates the OFETs in this work can be used in development of neuromorphic systems that aim to mimic the synaptic behavior of the human nervous system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plutonium isotope ratio measurements by total evaporation-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TE-TIMS): an evaluation of uncertainties using traceable standards from the New Brunswick Laboratory

The accuracy and precision of isotope amount ratio measurements using thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) instrumentation are described, and the measurement of Pu materials is emphasized. The mass fractionation observed for Am, Ga, Pu, and U for isotope amount ratio measurements using the total evaporation (TE) technique is compared with theoretical estimates to demonstrate the advantage of the TE methodology and to investigate systematic biases in the major isotope amount ratios of U and Pu certified reference material (CRM) standards from the U.S. provider of CRMs. The quality of the Pu isotopic data generated by TIMS instruments in an analytical laboratory is demonstrated by the application of the double ratio technique to estimate the 241 Pu half-life. Analytical data on traceable Pu CRMs from the New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL), generated as part of routine measurements supporting various programs, are used for this half-life estimation. Although the 241 Pu abundances in CRMs of 136, 137, 138, and 126-A are approximately 200–2000× smaller than those in the 241 Pu material used in the previous Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM) evaluation of the 241 Pu half-life, the half-life value estimated in this work shows excellent agreement with the currently accepted value from the IRMM. This agreement also demonstrates the pedigree of the Pu isotopic standards from the NBL and the quality of the isotope amount ratio measurements using TIMS instrumentation. For both the major and minor Pu isotope amount ratios, this report describes the relative importance of the factors affecting the uncertainty of TIMS measurements, which are considered the gold standard in isotope ratio measurements (LA-UR-24-29199).

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Moment expansion of polarized dust SED: A new path towards capturing the CMB B -modes with LiteBIRD

Accurate characterization of the polarized dust emission from our Galaxy will be decisive in the quest for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) primordial B-modes. An incomplete modeling of its potentially complex spectral properties could lead to biases in the CMB polarization analyses and to a spurious measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. It is particularly crucial for future surveys like the LiteBIRD satellite, the goal of which is to constrain the faint primordial signal leftover by inflation with an accuracy on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r of the order of 10 –3 . Variations of the dust properties along and between lines of sight lead to unavoidable distortions of the spectral energy distribution (SED) that cannot be easily anticipated by standard component-separation methods. This issue can be tackled using a moment expansion of the dust SED, an innovative parametrization method imposing minimal assumptions on the sky complexity. In the present paper, we apply this formalism to the B-mode cross-angular power spectra computed from simulated LiteBIRD polarization data at frequencies between 100 and 402 GHz that contain CMB, dust, and instrumental noise. The spatial variation of the dust spectral parameters (spectral index β and temperature T) in our simulations lead to significant biases on r (~21 σ r ) if not properly taken into account. Performing the moment expansion in β, as in previous studies, reduces the bias but does not lead to sufficiently reliable estimates of r. We introduce, for the first time, the expansion of the cross-angular power spectra SED in both β and T, showing that, at the sensitivity of LiteBIRD, the SED complexity due to temperature variations needs to be taken into account in order to prevent analysis biases on r. Thanks to this expansion, and despite the existing correlations between some of the dust moments and the CMB signal responsible for a rise in the error on r, we can measure an unbiased value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio with a dispersion as low as σ r = 8.8 × 10 –4 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Redshift space power spectrum beyond Einstein-de Sitter kernels

Abstract We develop a framework to compute the redshift space power spectrum (PS), with kernels beyond Einstein-de Sitter (EdS), that can be applied to a wide variety of generalized cosmologies. We build upon a formalism that was recently employed for standard cosmology in Chen, Vlah & White (2020), and utilize an expansion of the density-weighted velocity moment generating function that explicitly separates the magnitude of the k-modes and their angle to the line-of-sight direction dependencies. We compute the PS for matter and biased tracers to 1-loop Perturbation Theory (PT) and show that the expansion has a correct infrared and ultraviolet behavior, free of unwanted divergences. We also add Effective Field Theory (EFT) counterterms, necessary to account for small-scale contributions to PT, and employ an IR-resummation prescription to properly model the smearing of the BAO due to large scale bulk flows within Standard-PT. To demonstrate the applicability of our formalism, we apply it on the ΛCDM and the Hu-Sawicki f(R) models, and compare our numerical results against the elephant suite of N-body simulations, finding very good agreement up to k = 0.27 Mpc -1 h at z = 0.5 for the first three non-vanishing Legendre multipoles of the PS. To our knowledge, the model presented in this work is the most accurate theoretical EFT-PT for modified gravity to date, being the only one that accounts for beyond linear local biasing in redshift-space. Hence, we argue our RSD modeling is a promising tool to construct theoretical templates in order to test deviations from ΛCDM using real data obtained from the next stage of cosmological surveys such as DESI and LSST.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of environment on the lives of disc galaxies as revealed by SDSS-IV MaNGA

Environment has long been known to have significant impact on the evolution of galaxies, but here we seek to quantify the subtler differences that might be found in disc galaxies, depending on whether they are isolated, the most massive galaxy in a group (centrals), or a lesser member (satellites). The MaNGA survey allows us to define a large mass-matched sample of 574 galaxies with high-quality integrated spectra in each category. Initial examination of their spectral indices indicates significant differences, particularly in low-mass galaxies. Semi-analytic spectral fitting of a full chemical evolution model to these spectra confirms these differences, with low-mass satellites having a shorter period of star formation and chemical enrichment typical of a closed box, while central galaxies have more extended histories, with evidence of ongoing gas accretion over their lifetimes. The derived parameters for gas infall time-scale and wind strength suggest that low-mass satellite galaxies have their hot haloes of gas effectively removed, while central galaxies retain a larger fraction of gas than isolated galaxies due to the deeper group potential well in which they sit. S0 galaxies form a distinct subset within the sample, particularly at higher masses, but do not bias the inferred lower mass environmental impact significantly. The consistent picture that emerges underlines the wealth of archaeological information that can be extracted from high-quality spectral data using techniques like semi-analytic spectral fitting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discrete generative diffusion models without stochastic differential equations: A tensor network approach

Diffusion models (DMs) are a class of generative machine learning methods that sample a target distribution by transforming samples of a trivial (often Gaussian) distribution using a learned stochastic differential equation. In standard DMs, this is done by learning a “score function” that reverses the effect of adding diffusive noise to the distribution of interest. Here we consider the generalisation of DMs to lattice systems with discrete degrees of freedom, and where noise is added via Markov chain jump dynamics. We show how to use tensor networks (TNs) to efficiently define and sample such “discrete diffusion models” (DDMs) without explicitly having to solve a stochastic differential equation. We show the following: (i) by parametrising the data and evolution operators as TNs, the denoising dynamics can be represented exactly; (ii) the auto-regressive nature of TNs allows to generate samples efficiently and without bias; (iii) for sampling Boltzmann-like distributions, TNs allow to construct an efficient learning scheme that integrates well with Monte Carlo. We illustrate this approach to study the equilibrium of two models with non-trivial thermodynamics, the d = 1 constrained Fredkin chain and the d = 2 Ising model. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Causer, Luke (ORCID:0000000194243473)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tracking Soiling Losses: Assessment, Uncertainty, and Challenges in Mapping

Several models have been presented in the recent years to estimate the magnitude of soiling from environmental parameters. However, these models are often based on data from a single site, or at most a few sites, and only limited data are, as of yet, available on their uncertainty. The present work aims to present a first comparative analysis of soiling estimation models, using measured soiling data from various locations in the USA. The study also investigates the impact that the source of the input data can have on the estimation. The results show that the model selection is only one of the factors that can affect the evaluation. Indeed, the use of satellite-derived or ground-mounted particulate matter data can lead to the generation of different soiling maps, with factors greater than 2x between the modeled losses. The current challenges and the unanswered questions that can bias soiling estimation are discussed. Additionally, potential research directions to improve the quality of soiling modeling are identified.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measuring Cosmological Parameters with Type Ia Supernovae in redMaGiC Galaxies

Abstract Current and future cosmological analyses with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) face three critical challenges: (i) measuring the redshifts from the SNe or their host galaxies; (ii) classifying the SNe without spectra; and (iii) accounting for correlations between the properties of SNe Ia and their host galaxies. We present here a novel approach that addresses each of these challenges. In the context of the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we analyze an SN Ia sample with host galaxies in the redMaGiC galaxy catalog, a selection of luminous red galaxies. redMaGiC photo- z estimates are expected to be accurate to σ Δ z /(1+ z ) ∼ 0.02. The DES-5YR photometrically classified SN Ia sample contains approximately 1600 SNe, and 125 of these SNe are in redMaGiC galaxies. We demonstrate that redMaGiC galaxies almost exclusively host SNe Ia, reducing concerns relating to classification uncertainties. With this subsample, we find similar Hubble scatter (to within ∼0.01 mag) using photometric redshifts in place of spectroscopic redshifts. With detailed simulations, we show that the bias due to using redMaGiC photo- z s on the measurement of the dark energy equation of state w is up to Δ w ∼ 0.01–0.02. With real data, we measure a difference in w when using the redMaGiC photo- z s versus the spec- z s of Δ w = 0.005. Finally, we discuss how SNe in redMaGiC galaxies appear to comprise a more standardizable population, due to a weaker relation between color and luminosity ( β ) compared to the DES-3YR population by ∼5 σ . These results establish the feasibility of performing redMaGiC SN cosmology with photometric survey data in the absence of spectroscopic data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exposing Process‐Level Biases in a Global Cloud Permitting Model With ARM Observations

The emergence of global convective‐permitting models (GCPMs) represents a significant advancement in climate modeling, offering improved representation of deep convection and complex precipitation patterns. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) using its doubly periodic configuration (DP‐SCREAM) against large eddy simulations and modern observational data sets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. We introduce several new transitional cloud regime cases, such as the transition from shallow to deep convection and from stratocumulus to cumulus, as well as cold‐air outbreak scenarios. The results reveal both strengths and limitations of SCREAM, particularly in the accurate simulation of cloud transitions and midlevel convection, with varying degrees of sensitivity to horizontal and vertical resolution. Despite improvements at higher resolutions, key biases remain, including the abrupt transition from shallow to deep convection and the lack of congestus clouds. These findings underscore the need for further refinement in turbulence parameterizations and vertical grid resolution in GCPMs.

Bogenschutz, Peter A. [Lawrence Livermore National↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Simple Data-Centric Methodology for Producible Geothermal Well Determinations: Preprint

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has traditionally lacked a standardized methodology for determining if a newly drilled geothermal well is "producible," a designation essential for deciding whether a lease should be "held by production." This is a straightforward problem to solve in oil and gas: Demonstrate that a well is economically viable, meaning it produces sufficient oil or gas to exceed direct operating costs and lease-related expenses, such as rentals or minimum royalties. In geothermal, the problem is more complex: Geothermal wells are tightly coupled with the downstream infrastructure - specifically, the power plant, which is often not designed until well after a lease is deemed as "held by production." Although this designation is critical for advancing geothermal power plant development on BLM-managed lands, current geothermal well assessments often rely on ad hoc approaches that can be complex, operator-biased, and heavy in assumptions related to economic viability. To address this, we have developed two complementary methodologies: a minimum power requirement-based approach and a productivity index (PI)-based approach. These methods leverage key flow test data - pressure, temperature, flow rate, and specific enthalpy - to provide reliable and standardized producible well determinations. The minimum power requirement-based approach evaluates wells against specific power output thresholds informed by reservoir experts and the associated temperature requirements. The PI-based approach assesses well productivity using widely accepted reservoir engineering metrics, proposing a threshold of 2.5 kg/s/bar. Both methods are data-driven and grounded in empirical production data from operational geothermal wells, avoiding uncertain economic assumptions while maintaining decision-making accuracy. Wells falling below key performance thresholds (i.e., PI, specific power) are deemed non-producible. These methodologies aim to streamline BLM's decision-making process, reduce nontechnical barriers to geothermal energy adoption, and enable regulatory expansion into states lacking geothermal expertise. Preliminary results indicate clear trends and thresholds in production data that provide actionable insights for evaluating well producibility. Validation using well completion report (WCR) data is ongoing, with promising results demonstrating the potential for these standardized methodologies to impact geothermal development significantly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents a suite of hydropower projections for the conterminous United States (CONUS), derived from multiple downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) approaches, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). The resulting downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data are then used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling simulations of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Simulated total runoff is subsequently employed to drive two hydropower models (WMP, now implemented as mosartwmpy-power, and WRES) to evaluate how climate change may affect future hydropower production for both federal and non-federal hydropower fleets. This dataset was developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, see Broman et al. (2024), Thurber et al. (2024), Kao et al. (2022), and Zhou et al. (2023).

Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study's use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗