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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48

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NASA NTRS2018

High-Fidelity Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Methodology with Application to Rotor Blades

A multidisciplinary design optimization procedure has been developed and applied to rotorcraft simulations involving tightly-coupled, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis. A discretely-consistent, adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in the fluid dynamics solver provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows on unstructured, dynamic, overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Accuracy of the coupled system for high-fidelity rotorcraft analysis is verified; simulation results exhibit good agreement with established solutions. A constrained gradient-based design optimization for a HART-II rotorcraft configuration is demonstrated. The computational cost for individual components of the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is assessed and improved.

Wang, Li↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase-field model of precipitation processes with coherency loss

A phase-field model is proposed to simulate coherency loss coupled with microstructure evolution. A special field variable is employed to describe the degree of coherency loss of each particle and its evolution is governed by a Ginzburg-Landau type kinetic equation. For the sake of computational efficiency, a flood-fill algorithm is introduced that can drastically reduce the required number of field variables, which allows the model to efficiently simulate a large number of particles sufficient for characterizing their statistical features during Ostwald ripening. The model can incorporate size dependence of coherency loss, metastability of coherent particles, and effectively incorporate the underlying mechanisms of coherency loss by introducing a so-called differential energy criterion. The model is applied to simulate coarsening of Al 3 Sc precipitates in aluminum alloy and comprehensively compared with experiments. Our results clearly show how the particle size distribution is changed during coherency loss and affects the coarsening rate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models

Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Admittance model for the shuttle remote manipulator system in four configurations

A possible scenario for robot task performance in space is to mount two small, dexterous arms to the end of the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS). As these small robots perform tasks, the flexibility of the SRMS may cause unsuccessful task executions. In order to simulate the dynamic coupling between the SRMS and the arms, admittance models of the SRMS in four brakes locked configurations were developed. The admittance model permits calculation of the SRMS end-effector response due to end-effector disturbing forces. The model will then be used in conjunction with a Stewart Platform, a vehicle emulation system. An application of the admittance model was shown by simulating the disturbing forces using two SRMS payloads, the Dextrous Orbital Servicing System (DOSS) manipulator and DOSS carrying a 1000 lb. cylinder. Mode by mode comparisons were conducted to determine the minimum number of modes required in the admittance model while retaining dynamic fidelity. It was determined that for all four SRMS configurations studied, between 4 and 6 modes of the SRMS structure (depending on the excitation loads) were sufficient to retain tolerance of 0.01 inches and 0.01 deg. These tolerances correspond to the DOSS manipulator carrying no object. When the DOSS carries the 1000 lb. cylinder, between 15 and 20 modes were sufficient, approximately three or four times as many modes as for the unloaded case.

Papadopoulos, Loukas↗

DOE OSTI2023

A numerical investigation of coal particle modeling for the inlet section of a pressurized oxy-combustion burner

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts to develop low-carbon technologies, and pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry. Designing an effective burner for such technologies is vital for the development of these and other coal combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of coal particles at the fuel inlet of the pressurized oxy-combustor burner is close to or even higher than the maximum limit for commercial CFD codes (e.g., ANSYS FLUENT). At these high particle volume fractions, the interactions among particles, fluid flow and wall need to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the influence of various parameters, like method of particle release, release location, and particle size, in a pilot-scale POC combustor, developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In the POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure in an O2-CO2 environment. Specifically, a 15-bar, 100 kWth, POC combustor is modeled employing Ansys FLUENT commercial sodtware using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, velocity profiles in the near-wall region exhibit some anomalies. In order to investigate the influence of particle loading in the near-wall region, particle release location was investigated. The numerical simulations incorporate the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. A sensitivity investigation of particle release location found that by tuning the release location, the velocity profile can be consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. More importantly, the particle releasing location also affects flame stability. Particle size was also found to have a significant impact on particle trajectory, flame stability and temperature. Finally, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) were performed and compared with the results from two-dimensional RANS.

Li, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Amortized simulation-based frequentist inference for tractable and intractable likelihoods

Abstract High-fidelity simulators that connect theoretical models with observations are indispensable tools in many sciences. If the likelihood is known, inference can proceed using standard techniques. However, when the likelihood is intractable or unknown, a simulator makes it possible to infer the parameters of a theoretical model directly from real and simulated observations when coupled with machine learning. We introduce an extension of the recently proposed likelihood-free frequentist inference ( LF2I ) approach that makes it possible to construct confidence sets with the p -value function and to use the same function to check the coverage explicitly at any given parameter point. Like LF2I , this extension yields provably valid confidence sets in parameter inference problems for which a high-fidelity simulator is available. The utility of our algorithm is illustrated by applying it to three pedagogically interesting examples: the first is from cosmology, the second from high-energy physics and astronomy, both with tractable likelihoods, while the third, with an intractable likelihood, is from epidemiology 3 3 Code to reproduce all of our results is available on https://github.com/AliAlkadhim/ALFFI . .

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate machine-learning predictions of coercivity in high-performance permanent magnets

Increased demand for high-performance permanent magnets in the electric vehicle and wind-turbine industries has prompted the search for cost-effective alternatives. Discovering magnetic materials with the desired intrinsic and extrinsic permanent magnet properties presents a significant challenge to researchers because of issues with the global supply of rare-earth elements, material stability, and a low maximum magnetic energy product BH max . While first-principles density functional theory (DFT) predicts materials’ magnetic moments, magnetocrystalline anisotropy constants, and exchange interactions, it cannot compute extrinsic properties such as coercivity (H c ). Although it is possible to calculate H c theoretically with micromagnetic simulations, the predicted value is larger than the experiment by almost an order of magnitude due to the Brown paradox. To circumvent these issues, we employ machine-learning (ML) methods on an extensive database obtained from experiments, DFT calculations, and micromagnetic modeling. The use of a large experimental dataset enables realistic H c predictions for materials such as Ce-doped Nd 2 ⁢Fe 14 ⁢B, comparing favorably against micromagnetically simulated coercivities. Remarkably, our ML model accurately identifies uniaxial magneto-crystalline anisotropy as the primary contributor to H c . With DFT calculations, we predict the Nd-site-dependent magnetic anisotropy behavior in Nd 2 ⁢Fe 14 ⁢B, confirming that Nd 4⁢g sites mainly contribute to uniaxial magnetocrystalline anisotropy, and also calculate the Curie temperature (T c ). Finally, both calculated results are in good agreement with the experiments. The coupled experimental dataset and ML modeling with DFT input predict H c with far greater accuracy and speed than was previously possible using micromagnetic modeling. Further, we reverse engineer the grain-boundary and intergrain exchange coupling with micromagnetic simulations by employing the ML predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1977

Faulting parameters derived from computer simulation of earthquakes

Seismic source parameters, average displacement, rupture length, and strain energy release are investigated by computer simulation using a coupled massive block model of the sliding along an active fault. Average displacements and energy release vary considerably with the degree of heterogeneity in the friction and elastic parameters used in the model. Strain energy release is determined primarily by the product of dynamic friction, rupture length, and average displacement. Interrelationships among the faulting parameters are consistent with theoretical arguments and experimental data. The variation in the frequency of occurrence of simulation events with strain energy release is different from the variation in the frequency of naturally occurring events with seismic energy.

Cohen, S. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of Stochastic Acceleration on the Dynamics of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are crucial in space weather phenomena, impacting space-based technologies and human activities in space. Understanding the dynamics of SEPs, including their acceleration and transport mechanisms, is essential for improving predictive models and mitigating adverse effects. This study investigates the impact of stochastic acceleration (SA) on the dynamics of SEPs within the heliosphere. By integrating stochastic acceleration into a SEP transport model, we assess its impact relative to diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). The investigation utilizes the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to simulate SEP dynamics, incorporating solar wind parameters and turbulence from the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). To do this, we solve the focused transport equation to model the propagation of SEPs along magnetic field lines, extending these lines to 5 AU to incorporate the potential effects of pitch angle scattering beyond 1 AU. This aspect could notably impact the decay phase of a SEP event. Modeling the transport of SEPs is coupled with the simulation of solar wind dynamics, the interplanetary magnetic field, and the characteristics of Alfven wave turbulence. This presentation covers the modeling approach used in this research, the characterization of the impact of the stochastic acceleration, and the role of pitch angle scattering at various heliocentric distances on the dynamics of the SEP events' decay phase.

SEP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Sensitivity in Response to a Wide Range of Abrupt CO 2 Forcings

An improved understanding of dynamical variability is important for projecting future changes in extratropical weather and the interaction between the extratropical troposphere and the tropics, stratosphere, cryosphere and ocean. Despite their simplicity, the abrupt 2x- and 4xCO 2 forcing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 DECK experiments enable a mechanistic look into the forcing and feedback response characteristics of models that can be unambiguously attributed to an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. Thus, while typically used to evaluate the climate sensitivity in models, with a primary focus on global surface temperature change, here we focus on several measures of extratropical variability, including projected changes in the storm tracks and in stratospheric polar vortex variability. Results are primarily based on simulations produced using low- and high-top versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model (ModelE) but results are also presented from the larger CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. In addition to the 2x- and 4xCO 2 simulations, we also explore the linearity of the response of extratropical dynamical variability in ModelE to varying levels of CO 2 spanning the range 1/8-8xCO 2 . In particular, we show that the expansion of the jet streams varies nonlinearly with increasing CO 2 , especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and that this can be interpreted in terms of variations in ocean heat transport. The impact of composition feedbacks on changes in variability is also discussed.

dynamical variability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Physics System-level Simulations of a Generic Pebble Bed High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor with Coupled SAM/Griffin Model

A SAM model for a 200 MWth generic pebble bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PBHTGR) is presented in this work. As an extension to the modeling effort from FY-22 (Ooi et al. (2022)), an improved core channel approach is used to model the pebble bed of the reactor. The improvement greatly simplifies the model and reduces the run time of the model. Furthermore, the SAM model is coupled to the Griffin reactor physics model from Stewart et al. (2021) using the MOOSE MultiApp system where neutronics calculations are performed by the Griffin model and thermal hydraulics calculations by the SAM model. Favorable predictions are produced by the SAM/Griffin coupled model for steady-state normal operating condition. A load-following transient is also simulated with the coupled model where the neutronics and thermal hydraulics responses of the core are predicted correctly by the model. A protected Pressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (PLOFC) accident is simulated with the SAM model, in which the reactor power is determined using the decay heat curve, and therefore the Griffin model is not needed and thus decoupled. A simplified RCCS (Reactor Cavity Cooling System) loop is added to the model to remove decay heat from the core during the transient. Qualitatively, the prediction by the SAM model matches the expected behavior of a PB-HTGR during a PLOFC accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exascale Multiphysics Nuclear Reactor Simulations for Advanced Designs

ENRICO is a coupled application developed under the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Computing Project (ECP) targeting the modeling of advanced nuclear reactors. It couples radiation transport with heat and fluid simulation, including the high-fidelity, highresolution Monte-Carlo code Shift and the Computational fluid dynamics code NekRS. NekRS is a highly-performant open-source code for simulation of incompressible and low-Mach fluid flow, heat transfer, and combustion with a particular focus on turbulent flows in complex domains. It is based on rapidly convergent high-order spectral element discretizations that feature minimal numerical dissipation and dispersion. State-of-the-art multilevel preconditioners, efficient high-order time-splitting methods, and runtime-adaptive communication strategies are built on a fast OCCA-based kernel library, libParanumal, to provide scalability and portability across the spectrum of current and future high-performance computing platforms. On Frontier, Nek5000/RS has recently achieved an unprecedented milestone in breaching over 1 billion spectral elements and 350 billion degrees of freedom. Shift has demonstrated the capability to transport upwards of 1 billion particles per second in full core nuclear reactor simulations featuring complete temperature-dependent, continuous-energy physics on Frontier. Shift achieved a weak-scaling efficiency of 97.8% on 8192 nodes of Frontier and calculated 6 reactions in 214,896 fuel pin regions below 1% statistical error yielding first-of-a-kind resolution for a Monte Carlo transport application.

Hamilton, Steven P.↗

NASA NTRS2025

Integrating the Interconnections Between Groundwater and Land Surface Processes Through the Coupled NASA Land Information System and ParFlow Environment

Understanding the interactions between the atmosphere, the land, and the subsurface is fundamental to hydrology and is critical for a better assessment of the impacts of climate change and human management on hydrological systems. However, many land surface models simplify the subsurface hydrology and thereby these interactions. In this study, we couple the land surface model Noah-MP included in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow (ParFlow-LIS) using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the National United Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). This coupling improves the simulation of water and energy cycle processes by adding the three-dimensional variably saturated and heterogeneous flow in the subsurface using sophisticated and nonlinear physics-based equations as well as the advances in satellite remote sensing-based data assimilation of the land surface, thereby benefiting the integrated hydrologic modeling and data assimilation community. We use the High Plains aquifer, located in the central United States, as a testbed to evaluate the coupled ParFlow-LIS system. The new ParFlow-LIS system accounts for the effects of topographically driven flows on the land surface, producing more fine-scale patterns of land surface states and fluxes than standalone LIS. In addition, ParFlow-LIS enables the consideration of the effect of subsurface water storage on evapotranspiration. This is particularly important in areas and times with dry soils, such as during drought conditions or in the presence of a cone of depression due to pumping.

land surface modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stepwise Dynamic Calibration of a Hydromechanical Simulation Using Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profile

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is the 13-10A injector well within the ongoing CO2-EOR operation of the Farnsworth Field Unit. The Time-lapse VSP dataset carries the combined effects of fluid substitution and mean effective stress changes, thereby providing a dataset amenable for the calibration of production and injection-induced stress changes. The concept is similar to calibrating a reservoir simulation model in that the process honor real field data to set up an inverse problem. The solution optimizes the independent and impactful geomechanical parameters that replicate the observed time-lapse seismic velocity changes. This stress calibration is enabled by 4D geomechanical modeling and the VSP Integration workflow. This calibration benefits from extensive geological, geophysical and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the 13-10A subject well. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model. The Biot Gassmann workflow combines rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the fluid substitution contribution to seismic velocity change. Additionally, modeled seismic velocity attributed to mean effective stress are determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from the ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements on the extracted Morrow B core. A penalty function is then formed between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. Four independent and impactful geomechanical parameters have been determined. These are the bulk modulus and shear modulus for zero porosity and the shear and compressional seismic velocity to mean effective stress derivatives. The dataset of numerous coupled hydromechanical- geomechanical simulation realizations is built by combining variations of the four stated geomechanical parameters. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer are used to converge on the optimal geomechanical parameters. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS1992

Electromagnetic ion/ion cyclotron instability - Theory and simulations

Linear theory and 1D and 2D hybrid simulations are employed to study electromagnetic ion/ion cyclotron (EMIIC) instability driven by the relative streaming of two field-aligned ion beams. The characteristics of the instability are studied as a function of beam density, propagation angle, electron-ion temperature ratios, and ion beta. When the propagation angle is near 90 deg the EMIIC instability has the characteristics of an electrostatic instability, while at smaller angles electromagnetic effects play a significant role as does strong beam coupling. The 2D simulations point to a narrowing of the wave spectrum and accompanying coherent effects during the linear growth stage of development. The EMIIC instability is an important effect where ion beta is low such as in the plasma-sheet boundary layer and upstream of slow shocks in the magnetotail.

Winske, D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating Catalysis with Realistic Pellet Geometries Using Mesoflow: A Case Study of Catalytic Propane Dehydrogenation

We present a case study of catalytic propane dehydrogenation with our open-source multiphysics solver, Mesoflow. The solver was developed to simulate reactive flow coupled to heterogeneous catalytic reactions and deactivation in the context of complex, mesoscale geometry. The method leverages cartesian block-structured adaptive mesh refinement to capture realistic catalyst microstructural features acquired directly from X-ray computed tomography data. A kinetic model for propane dehydrogenation and catalyst deactivation was developed based on temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor experiments. The TAP reactor experiments allow for precise characterization of intrinsic kinetic reaction steps which are implemented into Mesoflow simulations to model the spatial and temporal evolution of reactants, products, and catalyst active sites. The short-term and long-term deactivation behavior is studied by using XCT data collected from fresh and aged catalyst pellets, which exhibit different microstructural features. This study employs time-splitting algorithms to connect disparate reaction and flow timescales, enabling the simulations to achieve realistic deactivation timescales on the order of minutes while the flow time-scales for small particles (100 microns) are several milliseconds. We also introduce a flexible automated python script that writes the necessary files to construct a Mesoflow simulation from user-created chemical mechanisms. We will also introduce a few new features that are added to Mesoflow such as higher order schemes, implicit chemistry integrators and the ability to run on AMD and NVIDIA graphics-processing-units.

AMReX↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal-Hydraulics Modeling and Simulations of Hot Pool Using the SAS-CFD Coupled Code

The main goal of this activity is to test the dynamic coupling of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) and CFD models, using a recently patched version of the SAS code intended to address an undocumented limitation that hindered the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) simulation efforts in FY21. As described in previous VTR calculation reports, the undocumented limitation in SAS v5.4 does not allow the user to activate the CFD coupling option during restart calculations. Since the analysts were unaware of this limitation, prior SAS-CFD simulation results for the protected station blackout (PSBO) transient were erroneous. Root-cause analysis was performed to determine the cause of this undocumented limitation in SAS v5.4, the SAS software was updated in a new patch, and the SAS-CFD simulations were repeated with this patched software. The results of the SAS-CFD simulations documented in this report show that the software patch does address the cited issue, and that the patched software indeed supports the activation of the CFD coupling model in restart calculations. The SAS development team will determine the schedule for implementing the patch in an official software release. This report documents updated SAS-CFD simulations of the PSBO transient response in the VTR. The hot pool is modeled with the CFD code STAR-CCM+, which is coupled at the flow boundaries to the SAS model of the primary heat transport system. SAS computes the mass flow rate and temperature at each core subassembly outlet, the thermal insulation cavity bypass, and the IHX inlet windows. CFD in turn computes the absolute pressure and temperature at each of these boundaries. The SAS code will ignore the temperature data at flow boundaries where flow is directed into the hot pool, i.e., at the core subassembly outlets unless flow reversal occurs. Similarly, CFD will ignore temperature data at boundaries where the flow is directed out of the hot pool, i.e., at the IHX inlets except under flow reversal. The focus of this work is to ensure that the SAS software patch addresses the undocumented limitation described in prior VTR calculation reports, rather than the accurate assessment of thermal stratification in the VTR during protected transients. This motivates the development of a new, simplified CFD model with a coarser mesh to accelerate the testing process. The updated model, and simplifying assumptions, are documented in this report. In future work, the thermal stratification assessment should be performed in more detail. The simplified CFD model can be improved by performing grid convergence studies sensitivity studies of turbulence parameters (e.g., Prandtl number, turbulence production and dissipation parameters) on temperature distributions and thermal stratification.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗