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NASA NTRS2020

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Methods for Augmenting the IMPACT Tool Evidence Library

Development of the Evidence Library for use with the IMPACT probability risk assessment tool took several years and involved a staggering amount of effort from a multi-disciplinary team. A very significant amount of the labor effort to collect, assess and finalize the Clinical Finding Form (CliFF) for each of the 119 medical conditions was provided by physician subject matter experts from the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element Clinical and Science Team. Many AI tools such as ChatGPT are excellent at summarizing large amounts of information and the current project was initiated to determine how such tools might streamline laborious processes, e.g., review and summarization of many scientific research publications, to execute key steps more efficiently in the process of developing CliFFs. The process for collecting the evidence which is found in the CliFFs is well documented in the Evidence Library Methods document (ELM; HRP-48036*). Using ELM and the CliFF development instructions as a guideline, a team of developers is leveraging Microsoft Azure AI tools and services along with open-source frameworks, to construct an AI-assisted automated pipeline. This pipeline is designed to search, retrieve, and process the necessary data sources, and ultimately help generate the final version of a CliFF. Currently, the large language model evaluates the relevance of each source material to spaceflights, either as direct evidence or as an analog. Additionally, the model assists in extracting keywords and generating brief summaries to enhance augmented retrieval and search processes in later stages of CliFF development. Once the data is ready, the model can perform semantic search and retrieval, generating and extracting valuable information for the CliFF. For instance, it can handle epidemiological statistical data, such as incidence rates and the likelihood of best or worst-case scenarios. The steps that required reading and summarizing articles were viewed as providing the greatest return on investment since large language models are very efficient and accurate in summarizing large amounts of text. Since labor effort to complete the original CliFF was not recorded with sufficient granularity, comparisons with an AI tool-generated CliFF will provide merely an approximation of time saved. Upon completion of the process, the CliFF for the medical condition “appendicitis” generated with the support of AI-based methods will serve as a proof-of-concept and will be compared to the original appendicitis CliFF to determine if use of the tools resulted in content and conclusory similarity. Based upon the results from face validation of the two CliFFs, modifications to the process will be made if necessary and additional condition CliFFs will be evaluated. Ultimately, CliFFs for the entire set of medical conditions will be created with the assistance of AI tools. Depending on the cost savings realized, CliFFs for additional medical conditions can be created to expand the Evidence Library. Future direction includes specifying the characteristics of the reviewer (prompting the AI tools to generate output assuming the reviewer is a sub-specialist physician, or nurse or EMT/medic) to determine if the effects on AI-generated output are different based on knowledge, skills and abilities. *Exploration Medical Capability Evidence Library Methods, HRP-48036 Rev A, July 2022.

Ali Al↗

NASA NTRS1992

Navier-Stokes simulations of unsteady transonic flow phenomena

Numerical simulations of two classes of unsteady flows are obtained via the Navier-Stokes equations: a blast-wave/target interaction problem class and a transonic cavity flow problem class. The method developed for the viscous blast-wave/target interaction problem assumes a laminar, perfect gas implemented in a structured finite-volume framework. The approximately factored implicit scheme uses Newton subiterations to obtain the spatially and temporally second-order accurate time history of the blast-waves with stationary targets. The inviscid flux is evaluated using either of two upwind techniques, while the full viscous terms are computed by central differencing. Comparisons of unsteady numerical, analytical, and experimental results are made in two- and three-dimensions for Couette flows, a starting shock-tunnel, and a shock-tube blockage study. The results show accurate wave speed resolution and nonoscillatory discontinuity capturing of the predominantly inviscid flows. Viscous effects were increasingly significant at large post-interaction times. While the blast-wave/target interaction problem benefits from high-resolution methods applied to the Euler terms, the transonic cavity flow problem requires the use of an efficient scheme implemented in a geometrically flexible overset mesh environment. Hence, the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations implemented in a diagonal form are applied to the cavity flow class of problems. Comparisons between numerical and experimental results are made in two-dimensions for free shear layers and both rectangular and quieted cavities, and in three-dimensions for Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) geometries. The acoustic behavior of the rectangular and three-dimensional cavity flows compare well with experiment in terms of frequency, magnitude, and quieting trends. However, there is a more rapid decrease in computed acoustic energy with frequency than observed experimentally owing to numerical dissipation. In addition, optical phase distortion due to the time-varying density field is modelled using geometrical constructs. The computed optical distortion trends compare with the experimentally inferred result, but underpredicts the fluctuating phase difference magnitude.

Atwood, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

An Overdetermined System for Improved Autocorrelation Based Spectral Moment Estimator Performance

Autocorrelation based spectral moment estimators are typically derived using the Fourier transform relationship between the power spectrum and the autocorrelation function along with using either an assumed form of the autocorrelation function, e.g., Gaussian, or a generic complex form and applying properties of the characteristic function. Passarelli has used a series expansion of the general complex autocorrelation function and has expressed the coefficients in terms of central moments of the power spectrum. A truncation of this series will produce a closed system of equations which can be solved for the central moments of interest. The autocorrelation function at various lags is estimated from samples of the random process under observation. These estimates themselves are random variables and exhibit a bias and variance that is a function of the number of samples used in the estimates and the operational signal-to-noise ratio. This contributes to a degradation in performance of the moment estimators. This dissertation investigates the use autocorrelation function estimates at higher order lags to reduce the bias and standard deviation in spectral moment estimates. In particular, Passarelli's series expansion is cast in terms of an overdetermined system to form a framework under which the application of additional autocorrelation function estimates at higher order lags can be defined and assessed. The solution of the overdetermined system is the least squares solution. Furthermore, an overdetermined system can be solved for any moment or moments of interest and is not tied to a particular form of the power spectrum or corresponding autocorrelation function. As an application of this approach, autocorrelation based variance estimators are defined by a truncation of Passarelli's series expansion and applied to simulated Doppler weather radar returns which are characterized by a Gaussian shaped power spectrum. The performance of the variance estimators determined from a closed system is shown to improve through the application of additional autocorrelation lags in an overdetermined system. This improvement is greater in the narrowband spectrum region where the information is spread over more lags of the autocorrelation function. The number of lags needed in the overdetermined system is a function of the spectral width, the number of terms in the series expansion, the number of samples used in estimating the autocorrelation function, and the signal-to-noise ratio. The overdetermined system provides a robustness to the chosen variance estimator by expanding the region of spectral widths and signal-to-noise ratios over which the estimator can perform as compared to the closed system.

Keel, Byron M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Computational Models of Human Performance: Validation of Memory and Procedural Representation in Advanced Air/Ground Simulation

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) under joint U.S. Army and NASA cooperative is intended to assist designers of complex human/automation systems in successfully incorporating human performance capabilities and limitations into decision and action support systems. MIDAS is a computational representation of multiple human operators, selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators, and the physical/functional representation of the equipment with which they operate. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. We have extended the human performance models to include representation of both human operators and intelligent aiding systems in flight management, and air traffic service. The focus of this development is to predict human performance in response to aiding system developed to identify aircraft conflict and to assist in the shared authority for resolution. The demands of this application requires representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and cooperative scheduling of goals and action in an somewhat unpredictable world of operations. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper, we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communication issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Deformed Geometry Synthesis Technique for Determining Stacking and Cryogenically Induced Preloads for the Space Launch System

The Space Launch System (SLS) stacking and Core Stage (CS) fueling induce significant preloads that contribute to the liftoff pad separation “twang”. To accurately capture this, an approach is required that can replicate the physics of all SLS physical stacking steps, CS cryogenic shrinkage, associated geometric nonlinearities, and the transient behavior and decay of the preloads with changing boundary conditions as the vehicle separates from the pad. The Deformed Geometry Synthesis (DGS) approach presented here satisfies the above requirements. DGS determines induced preloads by modeling components in their deformed geometry states and then enforcing compatibility by closing the resulting “deadbands”. DGS seamlessly integrates into the multibody modal synthesis framework and does not require the use of artificial external loads to enforce preloads or post-processing steps to remove their influence. Since DGS iterates to solve for the deformed state inclusive of geometric nonlinearities, running linearized parametrics to exercise different potential orientations of ball jointed struts that connect the CS to Boosters for cryo-shrinkage analyses is entirely avoided. Relative to the transient behavior and decay of stacking and cryo-induced preloads with SLS liftoff pad separation, this is an area of considerable interest to the SLS program. To capture this in the most accurate way possible, DGS algorithms are designed to work with Henkel-Mar nonlinear pad separation algorithms which operate on the separating longitudinal and lateral degrees of freedom (DoFs) between the vehicle and the pad. As the separating DoFs release, in whatever manner as dictated by the interface geometries, interface loads and interface flexibilities as well as the external loading on the vehicle, the subject preloads generate a complex twang/decay time-trace as dictated by the physics of the problem. This paper presents DGS numerical verification against the closed-form solution for Timoshenko’s 3 ball-jointed strut preload problem. This problem is then extended by the authors to the geometric nonlinear case where DGS is compared to the Newton-Raphson solution of the nonlinear equations. Next, DGS is utilized to solve the SLS stacking and cryogenic shrinkage coupled loads analyses. Finally, Henkel-Mar pad separation simulations are executed that isolate the impact of the induced preloads’ twang and decay characteristics.

Space Launch System↗

NASA NTRS2025

A Preliminary Study on the Feasibility of Large Language Models for Detecting Micro-Behaviors Among Team Members in Space Missions

Large-language models (LLMs) have been recently used for spoken language understanding (SLU) to infer meaning and semantics from speech in tasks such as speaker intent and sentiment classification. Due to being trained on large amounts of data, and their ability to understand context and relationships between words, LLMs are competent, enabling them to generalize across tasks without requiring many task-specific training samples. This research examines the feasibility of few-shot learning in LLMs for detecting subtle, brief, and possibly unconscious interactions between team members, called ``micro-behaviors," and provides insights into the appropriate design of LLMs for this task. Our data came from 5 teams participating in a 45-day mission at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA). More specifically we used data collected from team interaction battery (TIB) tasks teams performed five times in-mission which comprise an average 1.5 hours of conversation data per day. Micro-behaviors were coded according to an adapted version of Smith & Griffins (2022) theoretical framework in terms of Violation (i.e., presence of valenced behavior, uplifting/positive or discouraging/negative), Intensity (i.e., force of behavior in terms of how uplifting or discouraging is the behavior), and Intent (i.e., motive of the behavior in terms of whether it was deliberate or unintentional). We explore the ability of LLMs to detect the presence and intensity of micro-behaviors. We examine employing and fine-tuning readily available LLMs (i.e., RoBERTa, DistilBERT), as well as prompting state-of-the-art sequence classification models (i.e., Llama-2, Llama-3). In a total of 13,058 conversational turns (17.8% uplifting, 3.3% discouraging, 75.76% neutral, 3.14% nulls), we compute the macro F1-score of the 3-way micro-behavior classification task (i.e., classifying among uplifting, discouraging, and neutral; 33% chance). Results indicate that the RoBERTa model achieves a F1-score of 36.2% (uplift: 43.3% precision (P), 15.1% recall (R); discourage: 20% P, 0.5% R). These results significantly improve when we augment the data via paraphrasing in the RoBERTa model, reaching a 41.2% macro F1-score (uplift: 37.7% P, 86.3% R; discourage: 3.5% P, 1.8% R). Finally, the Llama-2 model with 3-shot prompting yields 38% macro F1-score (uplift: 28.7% P, 20% R; discourage: 7.2% P, 18% R), which is slightly better compared to the RoBERTa model without data augmentation, highlighting the effectiveness of sequence classification models in detecting minority classes with a small sample size. Findings indicate that LLMs hold potential to detect subtle behaviors in conversations, which could be valuable in assessing team behavior in space exploration missions. Future studies will evaluate the performance of different LLM prompting strategies or fine-tuning methods.

Ankush Raut↗

NASA NTRS1988

Morphology as a basis for taxonomy of large spirochetes symbiotic in wood-eating cockroaches and termites: Pillotina gen. nov., nom. rev.; Pillotina calotermitidis sp. nov., nom. rev.; Diplocalyx gen. nov., nom. rev.; Diplocalyx calotermitidis sp. nov., nom. rev.; Hollandina gen. nov., nom.[TRUNCATED]

The purposes of this paper are (i) to present a framework for the morphometric analysis of large uncultivable spirochetes that are symbiotic in wood-eating cockroaches and termites; (ii) to revive, in accordance with the rules of the International Code of Nomenclature of Bacteria, the names of three genera (Pillotina, Diplocalyx, and Hollandina) and three species (Pillotina calotermitidis, Diplocalyx calotermitidis, and Hollandina pterotermitidis) for the same organisms to which the names were originally applied, because these names were not included on the 1980 Approved Lists of Bacterial Names; and (iii) to formally propose the name Clevelandina reticulitermitidis for a new genus and species of spirochetes from the termite Reticulitermes tibialis. None of these genera and species has been cultivated either axenically or in mixed culture; hence, all are based on type-descriptive material.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

Lisa C Simonsen↗

NASA NTRS2018

The NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) v1.0: initial model development and analysis

The NASA Eulerian Snow On Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) is a new, open-source snow budget model that is currentlyconfigured to produce daily estimates of the depth and density of snow on sea ice across the Arctic Ocean throughthe accumulation season. NESOSIM has been developed in a three-dimensional Eulerian framework and includes two(vertical) snow layers and several simple parameterizations (accumulation, wind packing, advection_divergence, blowingsnow lost to leads) to represent key sources and sinks of snow on sea ice. The model is forced with daily inputs of snowfall and near-surface winds (from reanalyses), sea ice concentration (from satellite passive microwave data) and sea ice drift (from satellite feature tracking) during the accumulation season (August through April). In this study, we present the NESOSIM formulation, calibration efforts, sensitivity studies and validation efforts across an Arctic Ocean domain (100 km horizontal resolution). The simulated snow depth and density are calibrated with in situ data collected on drifting ice stations during the 1980s. NESOSIM shows strong agreement with the in situ seasonal cycles of snow depth and density, and shows good (moderate) agreement with the regional snow depth (density) distributions. NESOSIM is run for a contemporary period (2000 to 2015), with the results showing strong sensitivity to the reanalysis derived snowfall forcing data, with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) forced snow depths generally higher than ERA-Interim,and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) generally lower. We also generate and force NESOSIM with a consensus "median" daily snowfall dataset from these reanalyses.The results are compared against snow depth estimates derived from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) snow radar data from 2009 to 2015, showing moderate_strong correlations and root mean squared errors of 10 cm depending on the OIB snow depth product analyzed, similar to the comparisons between OIB snow depths and the commonly used modified Warren snow depth climatology. Potential improvements to this initial NESOSIM formulation are discussed in the hopes of improving the accuracy and reliability of these simulated snow depths and densities.

Petty, Alek A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Representativeness of CO and O3 Along ATom Transects Derived from GEOS-5 and GMI-CTM Simulations

One major goal for the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) is producing an observation-based chemical climatology to represent the atmospheric heterogeneity. In this study, we use CO and O3 observations and global atmospheric model simulations to examine the spatial representativeness of the ATom-1 and -2 transects within a 4D framework provided by the NASA GEOS-5 and GMI-CTM models. Based on the probability density functions, we find that the variability of CO and O3 along the flight tracks is well hindcast by the model when sampled per ATom flights. The CO variations along the ATom-transect are likely representative of the typical CO variations over the whole Pacific basin during both the ATom-1 and -2 periods, the northern Atlantic during the ATom-1 period, and the tropical Atlantic in the ATom-2 period. Over southern Atlantic, CO along the ATom-1 transects is likely less well mixed than that of the broader region, but is still representative of the median CO concentration. CO along the ATom-2 transect is likely higher than the median CO concentration over this region. For O3, the agreements between PDFs of O3 sampled along the ATom transects and over the broader regions are fair to good over all six regions (Scores > 0.65) with notable discrepancies over some regions. For example, in ATom-1 over the northern Pacific and Atlantic, the transect samples air masses with higher O3 levels. During ATom-2, the transect over-represents the occurrence of O3 plumes over tropical Pacific. Over the southern Pacific and Atlantic for both ATom-1 and -2, the transects have a less uniform distribution compared to the surrounding basins, but still represent the median O3 abundance. Overall, we conclude in most cases that ATom measurements represent the statistical variations of these two species over the ocean basins at the time of measurement. Higher-order statistics, including covariance of species, has not been tested in this study.

ozone↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Predictions of Boiling Regime Transitions during Line Chilldown validated against a 1G LN2 Experiment

Introduction Before filling a propellant tank on the ground or in Space, the transfer line between the donor and receiver tanks must be cooled down preferably by sacrificing a minimum amount of the cryogenic fluid. The cryogenic line chill-down process involves a transition between different flow boiling regimes, namely, film boiling, transition film boiling, and nucleate boiling which are complex and may be quite gravity-dependent. Capturing these boiling phenomena and predicting the transition between them in a CFD framework is new and challenging both for 1g and microgravity applications. Materials & Methods The present work addresses this challenge by employing a two-phase Eulerian approach in the context of a homogeneous fluid mixture together with the Lee phase change model to capture the film boiling regime of the chill-down process using ANSYS Fluent®. The nucleate boiling regime is predicted by incorporating an in-house developed sub-grid model that accounts for bubble nucleation, bubble growth, bubble departure diameter, and their shedding frequency. The sub-grid model is encoded and implemented into Fluent via a user-defined function for the wall-fluid heat flux calculations. The mathematical formulation and numerical implementation of the CFD model are described in detail. The coupled CFD-Subgrid model is validated against published experimental data for liquid nitrogen chill-down of a heated stainless-steel pipe in 1g. Results Numerical simulation results show good agreements between the CFD predictions of the wall temperature evolution, rewetting temperature, and transition between film and nucleate boiling, with the experimental measurements published by Darr et al [2] for several different LN2 flowrates in the vertical pipe orientation. The CFD predictions for the wall temperature distribution indicate a rapid quenching of the wall at two upstream and downstream temperature sensing locations as compared to the experimental measurement. The only tuning parameter in the CFD model is the Lee mass transfer coefficient. The CFD Model predicts the Liedenfrost rewetting temperature in close agreement with the experiment. This marks a transition between stable and transitionary flow boiling regimes. The CFD-predicted boiling curve for the downstream sensor location is also compared against its experimental counterpart and indicates that the model is able to predict all the key temperature and heat flux parameters during the transitions from stable to transitionary film boiling to nucleate boiling in close agreement with the experiment. A sequence of predicted volume fraction, and temperature contours depicting these transitions will be presented.

Evaporation Condensation↗

NASA NTRS1995

Instrument technology for magnetosphere plasma imaging from high Earth orbit. Design of a radio plasma sounder

The use of radio sounding techniques for the study of the ionospheric plasma dates back to G. Briet and M. A. Tuve in 1926. Ground based swept frequency sounders can monitor the electron number density (N(sub e)) as a function of height (the N(sub e) profile). These early instruments evolved into a global network that produced high-resolution displays of echo time delay vs frequency on 35-mm film. These instruments provided the foundation for the success of the International Geophysical Year (1958). The Alouette and International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) programs pioneered the used of spaceborne, swept frequency sounders to obtain N(sub e) profiles of the topside of the ionosphere, from a position above the electron density maximum. Repeated measurements during the orbit produced an orbital plane contour which routinely provided density measurements to within 10%. The Alouette/ISIS experience also showed that even with a high powered transmitter (compared to the low power sounder possible today) a radio sounder can be compatible with other imaging instruments on the same satellite. Digital technology was used on later spacecraft developed by the Japanese (the EXOS C and D) and the Soviets (Intercosmos 19 and Cosmos 1809). However, a full coherent pulse compression and spectral integrating capability, such as exist today for ground-based sounders (Reinisch et al., 1992), has never been put into space. NASA's 1990 Space Physics Strategy Implementation Study "The NASA Space Physics Program from 1995 to 2010" suggested using radio sounders to study the plasmasphere and the magnetopause and its boundary layers (Green and Fung, 1993). Both the magnetopause and plasmasphere, as well as the cusp and boundary layers, can be observed by a radio sounder in a high-inclination polar orbit with an apogee greater than 6 R(sub e) (Reiff et al., 1994; Calvert et al., 1995). Magnetospheric radio sounding from space will provide remote density measurements of unprecedented precision and coverage in the plasmasphere, inner magnetosphere and magnetopause, from which the structure, inter-relationship, and variations of different plasma regions can be determined (Armstrong Johnson, 1995). A space-borne Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) could provide a unique global view of the magnetosphere revealing the underlying structure of remote plasma regions, thereby providing a framework for the interpretation of images obtained by other techniques as identified in the technical areas TA1 to TA4 in the MSFC NRA8-8.

Haines, D. Mark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1993

Macrofossil records of West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat during the Holocene

Marine macrofossils in emerged beaches around Antarctica represent a geochemical framework for interpreting meltwater signatures associated with variations in the adjacent ice sheet margins during the last 10,000 years. In particular, mollusc species provide ideal experimental templates for assessing hydrochemical variations in Antarctic coastal marine environments because of their excellent preservation, high abundances, circumpolar distributions, and carbonate shells, which incorporate trace elements and stable isotopes. Modern samples of the bivalve Adamussium colbecki, which were collected across a depth gradient in the vicinity of a glacial meltwater stream in West McMurdo Sound, revealed shell trace element concentrations that were significantly higher above 10 meters because of their exposure to meltwater runoff. This meltwater signature also was reflected by the shell oxygen isotopic composition, which was in equilibrium with the ambient seawater, as demonstrated by the overlap between the predicted and actual O-(delta-18)sub w values. These modern samples provide analogs for interpreting the geochemical records in their fossils, which were based solely on molluscan fossils, complement the above geochemical data by suggesting that the rate of beach emergence fluctuated around Antarctica during the mid-Holocene. Paleoenvironmental analysis of macrofossils from emerged beaches represents a new direction in Antarctic research that can be used to assess changes in the margins of the ice sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum. The resolution of these analyses will be enhanced by collaborations that are developing with scientists who are conducting comparable studies in other coastal regions around the continent.

Berkman, Paul Arthur↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using Two-Stream Theory to Capture Fluctuations of Satellite-Perceived TOA SW Radiances Reflected from Clouds Over Ocean

Shortwave (SW) fluxes estimated from broadband radiometry rely on empirically gathered and hemispherically resolved fields of outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. This study aims to provide more accurate and precise fields of TOA SW radiances reflected from clouds over ocean by introducing a novel semiphysical model predicting radiances per narrow sun-observer geometry. This model was statistically trained using CERES-measured radiances paired with MODIS-retrieved cloud parameters as well as reanalysis-based geophysical parameters. By using radiative transfer approximations as a framework to ingest the above parameters, the new approach incorporates cloud-top effective radius and above-cloud water vapor in addition to traditionally used cloud optical depth, cloud fraction, cloud phase, and surface wind speed. A two-stream cloud albedo – serving to statistically incorporate cloud optical thickness and cloud-top effective radius – and Cox–Munk ocean reflectance were used to describe an albedo over each CERES footprint. Effective-radius-dependent asymmetry parameters were obtained empirically and separately for each viewing-illumination geometry. A simple equation of radiative transfer, with this albedo and attenuating above-cloud water vapor as inputs, was used in its log-linear form to allow for statistical optimization. We identified the two-stream functional form that minimized radiance residuals calculated against CERES observations and outperformed the state-of-the-art approach for most observer geometries outside the sun-glint and solar zenith angles between 20 and 70∘, reducing the median SD of radiance residuals per solar geometry by up to 13.2 % for liquid clouds, 1.9 % for ice clouds, and 35.8 % for footprints containing both cloud phases. Geometries affected by sun glint (constituting between 10 % and 1 % of the discretized upward hemisphere for solar zenith angles of 20 and 70∘, respectively), however, often showed weaker performance when handled with the new approach and had increased residuals by as much as 60 % compared to the state-of-the-art approach. Overall, uncertainties were reduced for liquid-phase and mixed-phase footprints by 5.76 % and 10.81 %, respectively, while uncertainties for ice-phase footprints increased by 0.34 %. Tested for a variety of scenes, we further demonstrated the plausibility of scene-wise predicted radiance fields. This new approach may prove useful when employed in angular distribution models and may result in improved flux estimates, in particular dealing with clouds characterized by small or large droplet/crystal sizes.

Two- stream theory↗