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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Radiocarbon analysis as a method for verifying atmospheric CO 2 uptake during carbon mineralization

Sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 is required to constrain the warming of Earth’s climate. Carbon mineralization refers to the precipitation of carbonate minerals by reaction of CO 2 and Mg- and Ca-rich rocks; if the source of the CO 2 is atmospheric and the precipitated carbonate is protected from subsequent dissolution, this process at sufficient scale may be able to reliably draw down atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Such reactions occur passively in ultramafic settings and previous work has demonstrated that they actively draw down local CO 2 (g) concentrations. However, a method for unambiguously attributing the sequestered carbon solid product to atmospheric sources is still lacking. Here, we test if radiocarbon can be used to verify that the carbon being incorporated into carbonate minerals during carbon mineralization is atmospheric in origin. Additionally, samples from recently exposed ultramafic sites are analyzed and the results demonstrate the utility of this technique for verifying true atmospheric carbon reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for tropical cyclones in global climate model simulations

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for evaluating tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is presented here. In contrast to the previous studies that used idealized axisymmetric wind fields, this study analyzes 48 hours of 10-second surface wind fields from 1-km TC simulations. The adjustment factor is derived from filtering the simulated TC wind fields onto various horizontal grid spacings typical of those used in GCMs. The new adjustment factor leads to TCs with greater intensity than the existing adjustment factors for horizontal grid spacings smaller than 30 km. This difference is attributed to more realistic wind fields in the TC simulations that contain highly asymmetric, localized patches of higher wind speeds instead of axisymmetric wind fields. Applying the new adjustment factor to select GCM simulations suggests the common interpretation of low-intensity bias in GCM-simulated TCs might be slightly exaggerated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

ICADS: A cooperative decision making model with CLIPS experts

A cooperative decision making model is described which is comprised of six concurrently executing domain experts coordinated by a blackboard control expert. The focus application field is architectural design, and the domain experts represent consultants in the area of daylighting, noise control, structural support, cost estimating, space planning, and climate responsiveness. Both the domain experts and the blackboard were implemented as production systems, using an enhanced version of the basic CLIPS package. Acting in unison as an Expert Design Advisor, the domain and control experts react to the evolving design solution progressively developed by the user in a 2-D CAD drawing environment. A Geometry Interpreter maps each drawing action taken by the user to real world objects, such as spaces, walls, windows, and doors. These objects, endowed with geometric and nongeometric attributes, are stored as frames in a semantic network. Object descriptions are derived partly from the geometry of the drawing environment and partly from knowledge bases containing prototypical, generalized information about the building type and site conditions under consideration.

Pohl, Jens↗
DOE OSTI2014

Deployment of feasible routes to renewable jet-fuel with an emphasis on the Norwegian landscape.

Techno-economic performances of Norwegian biojet fuel production via the Alcoholto- Jet and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene routes were estimated based on adaptations of available literature data to Norwegian conditions. This paper reviews the deployment of feasible routes to sustainable jet fuel production for the short-to-medium term timeframe (2020-2025), with an emphasis on the Norwegian landscape. Given the fact that there are serious concerns regarding the availability and the sustainability of large-scale biofuels production both from oil seed plants and carbohydrates (sugars and starches) as well as the unsuitability of the Norwegian climate for oil seed or sugar/starch plant cultivation, only biojet fuels produced from lignocellulosic resources are considered. The short-to-medium term implies certified or near certified fuels. The most promising and feasible alternatives for Norwegian biojet fuel production are hence limited to FT-SPK and ATJ. The results suggest that, from a techno-economic point of view, production of jet fuel via the gasification-FT route is more favorable than the alcohol to jet fuel route. This is attributed to the inclusion of the alcohol production step. Feedstock price is the main operating cost for both of the routes. The current cost of production of jet fuel under Norwegian conditions for gasification FT route is estimated between 43 USD/GJ and 47.4 USD/GJ, and for the ATJ route, between 54 USD/GJ and 60 USD/GJ.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production and Catalytic Upgrading of 2,3-Butanediol Fermentation Broth into Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blendstock and Fuel Properties Measurement

With the increasing demand for sustainable supplies of aviation fuel and need to address climate change, new conversion technologies are needed to efficiently process biomass, produce high quality jet fuel blendstock, and meet carbon emission targets. This study demonstrates the synthesis, conditioning, and catalytic upgrading of 2,3-butanediol (BDO) fermentation broth into a jet fuel blendstock candidate. A high-titer 2,3-BDO fermentation broth (i.e., ~90 g/L) was produced at a 100-L scale and pretreated via nanofiltration to decrease the impurities level in the broth from 4.6 to 0.6 wt%. A novel process for catalytic upgrading of aqueous 2,3-BDO into a jet fuel blendstock candidate was developed, and each step was efficiently demonstrated. The catalytic steps include 1) 2,3-BDO dehydration into methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) over AlPO4, 2) MEK conversion into olefins over Zn1Zr10Ox, 3) oligomerization of olefins over a zeolite beta, and 4) hydrogenation over platinum/carbon. Both the model feed and real 2,3-BDO fermentation broth were tested for upgrading 2,3-BDO to MEK. With the real feed, a continuous loss of conversion (i.e., >50% loss over ~140 h time-on-stream [TOS]) was partly attributed to reversible deactivation from coking species. However, the conversion remained stable with the model feed, which demonstrates the efficiency of the first step for converting aqueous 2,3-BDO (10 wt% in water). For upgrading MEK to olefins, high selectivity to olefins (i.e., 82.5%) was obtained at high conversion levels (i.e., 93-98%) with stable conditions being achieved for > 70-hours TOS. Oligomerization of light olefins, which was demonstrated for > 270 h TOS, mainly led to the formation of dimers (C8-10) and trimers (C13-14). The oligomerized product was hydrogenated and distilled to recover the jet fraction (35 mass% or 40.9% carbon based yield), which consists mostly of desired isoalkanes (31.7 wt%), n-alkanes (24.5 wt%), and cycloalkanes (29.6 wt%). While some improvement is still needed to meet ASTM D7566 specifications for viscosity and final boiling point temperature, freezing point, density, aromatics content, and sulfur content of the jet blendstock candidate were within acceptable ranges, thus highlighting the potential of this process for production of jet fuel blendstock.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Lagrangian Timescales of Southern Ocean Upwelling in a Hierarchy of Model Resolutions

Here, we study upwelling pathways and timescales of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) in a hierarchy of models using a Lagrangian particle tracking method. Lagrangian timescales of CDW upwelling decrease from 87 years to 31 years to 17 years as the ocean resolution is refined from 1° to 0.25° to 0.1°. We attribute some of the differences in timescale to the strength of the eddy fields, as demonstrated by temporally degrading high-resolution model velocity fields. Consistent with the timescale dependence, we find that an average Lagrangian particle completes 3.2 circumpolar loops in the 1° model in comparison to 0.9 loops in the 0.1° model. In conclusion, these differences suggest that advective timescales and thus interbasin merging of upwelling CDW may be overestimated by coarse-resolution models, potentially affecting the skill of centennial scale climate change projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Observed variation in soil properties can drive large variation in modelled forest functioning and composition during tropical forest secondary succession

Censuses of tropical forest plots reveal large variation in biomass and plant composition. This paper evaluates whether such variation can emerge solely from realistic variation in a set of commonly measured soil chemical and physical properties. Controlled simulations were performed using a mechanistic model that includes forest dynamics, microbe-mediated biogeochemistry, and competition for nitrogen and phosphorus. Observations from 18 forest inventory plots in Guanacaste, Costa Rica were used to determine realistic variation in soil properties. In simulations of secondary succession, the across-plot range in plant biomass reached 30% of the mean and was attributable primarily to nutrient limitation and secondarily to soil texture differences that affected water availability. The contributions of different plant functional types to total biomass varied widely across plots and depended on soil nutrient status. In Central America, soil-induced variation in plant biomass increased with mean annual precipitation because of changes in nutrient limitation. In Central America, large variation in plant biomass and ecosystem composition arises mechanistically from realistic variation in soil properties. Finally, the degree of biomass and compositional variation is climate sensitive. In general, model predictions can be improved through better representation of soil nutrient processes, including their spatial variation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A critical comparison of ten disposable cup LCAs

Disposable cups can be made from conventional petro-plastics, bioplastics, or paperboard (coated with petro-plastics or bioplastics). This study compared ten life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of disposable cups with the aim to evaluate the robustness of their results. The selected studies have only one impact category in common, namely climate change with global warming potential (GWP) as its category indicator. Quantitative GWP results of the studies were closer examined. GWPs within and across each study show none of the cup materials to be consistently better than the others. Comparison of the absolute GWPs (after correction for the cup volume) also shows no consistent better or worse cup material. An evaluation of the methodological choices and the data sets used in the studies revealed their influence on the GWP. The differences in GWP can be attributed to a multitude of factors, i.e., cup material and weight, production processes, waste processes, allocation options, and data used. These factors basically represent different types of uncertainty. Sensitivity and scenario analyses provided only the influence of one factor at once. A systematic and simultaneous use of sensitivity and scenario analyses could, in a next research, result in more robust outcomes. -- Highlights: • Conflicting results from life cycle assessment (LCA) on disposable cups • GWP results of LCAs did not point to a best or worst cup material. • Differences in GWP results are due to methodological choices and data sets used. • Standardized LCA: transparency of LCA studies, but still different in approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual precipitation controls on soil CO 2 fluxes in high elevation conifer and aspen forests

Abstract Long-term soil CO 2 emission measurements are necessary for detecting trends and interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Such records are becoming increasingly valuable as ecosystems experience altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. From 2013 to 2021, we continuously measured soil CO 2 concentrations in the two dominant high elevation forest types, mixed conifer and aspen, in the upper Colorado River basin. We quantified the soil CO 2 flux during the summer months, and found that the mean and total CO 2 flux in both forests was related to the prior winter’s snowfall and current summer’s rainfall, with greater sensitivity to rainfall. We observed a decline in surface soil CO 2 production, which we attributed to warming and a decrease in amount and frequency of summer rains. Our results demonstrate strong precipitation control on the soil CO 2 flux in mountainous regions, a finding which has important implications for carbon cycling under future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
NASA NTRS2024

Nonuniform Response of Vegetation Phenology to Daytime and Nighttime Warming in Urban Areas

The phenological response of vegetation to changing climates requires exploration across environments, including urban areas with elevated daytime and nighttime temperatures (T D and T N ) and artificial lights. Here, we analyzed multiple remotely-sensed datasets (2012–2021) from and around a highly-urbanized area, Seoul, in South Korea. While the urban fraction and artificial lights largely contributed to advancing the start-of-season (SOS) and delaying the end-of-season (EOS) (30.7–42.1%), SOS changes were more driven by T D (15.7%), whereas EOS changes were more attributed to T N (21.8%). A higher response of the SOS to T D was found in more urbanized areas with higher artificial lights, while the sensitivity of the EOS to T N increased in brighter areas during nighttime. These findings indicate that vegetation’s response to rising temperatures will become dynamic, given the potential constraints by light and other attributes, calling for further assessments of its implication for terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle.

JiHyun Kim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Top-of-atmosphere and Surface fluxes in the Arctic: A comparison with ARISE and MOSAiC measurements

Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other surface type and comes from several sources. This presentation summarizes results from comparisons of CERES data with the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic and the Arctic Radiation and Icebridge Sea ice Experiment (ARISE). The CERES Synoptic 1degree (SYN1deg) product overestimates the downwelling shortwave flux by 11.40 Wm–2 and underestimates the upwelling shortwave flux by –15.70 Wm–2 and downwelling longwave fluxes by –12.58 Wm–2 at the surface during summer. In addition, large differences are found in the upwelling longwave flux when the surface approaches the melting point (approximately 0C). The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed in large part to lower surface albedo (–0.15) in satellite footprint relative to surface sensors. The CERES-MOSAiC broadband albedo differences (approximately 20 Wm–2) explain a larger portion of the upwelling shortwave flux difference than the spectral albedo shape differences (approximately 3 Wm–2). The ARISE results indicate the some of these differences in the SW are due to the scene identification and representation of anisotropy in partly cloud scenes. Switching from imager-based to passive microwave-based sea ice data in the CERES inversion process reduces the differences in the grid box average fluxes and in the sea ice partly cloudy scene anisotropy in the instantaneously-matched footprints. Our analysis indicates that calibration and sampling uncertainty limit the ability to place strong constraints (<7%) on CERES TOA fluxes with aircraft measurements. The results indicate that improvements in the surface albedo and cloud data would substantially reduce the uncertainty in the Arctic surface radiation budget derived from CERES data products.

Patrick C Taylor↗
DOE OSTI2019

CO 2 Capture Going BIG

“Currently, the world is way off track in meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals. It cannot get back on track without CCS”. This statement, issued by the Global CCS Institute in its recent report on The Global Status of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), underlines the importance of developing new methods and technologies to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration has increased from 280 to 410 parts per million (ppm), which is a 46% increase. Most of the added CO 2 can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions from energy production (i.e., burning coal, natural gas, and oil) and other industries (e.g., cement, steel). The CO 2 level will likely continue to rise in the coming decades, as the world population and the energy consumption continue to increase and rely on fossil fuels. While the Earth’s ecosystems have mechanisms for reducing the amounts of CO 2 present in the atmosphere, absorbing roughly half of our annual emissions, the other half, consisting of about 18 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year, will have to be addressed through CCS technologies. At the same time, the global average temperature has already risen about 1 °C over the course of the 20th century, and will likely exceed the 1.5 °C increase limit in a few decades. Undeniably, as the Earth is out of energy balance with the current atmospheric composition, there is more warming in the pipeline even if the global emissions were to be cut to zero today. A recent report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences concluded that limiting the increase in the global temperature to less than 2 °C by the end of this century becomes exceedingly challenging without large-scale deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs). NETs, such as Direct Air Capture (DAC), remove CO 2 out of the atmosphere, in effect reducing past emissions. They also can address dispersed emissions from transportation and buildings, which currently account to about 50% of global annual emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2013

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Sea-surface↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. Evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. Simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5-7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year-1. This large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Groundwater storage↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACe) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5–7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year−1. this large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Bailing Li↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effects of warming and soil chemistry on bacterial community structure in Arctic tundra soils

Soil microbial communities in the Arctic play a critical role in regulating the global carbon (C) cycle. Vast amounts of C are stored in northern latitude soils, and rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to thaw permafrost, making relatively inaccessible C sources more available for mineralization by soil microbes. Few studies have characterized how microbial community structure responds to thawing permafrost in the context of varying soil chemistries associated with contrasting tundra landscapes. Here, we subjected active layer and permafrost soils from upland and lowland tundra sites on the North Slope of Alaska to a soil-warming incubation experiment and compared soil bacterial community profiles (obtained by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing) before and after incubation. The influence of soil composition (characterized by mid-infrared [MIR] spectroscopy) on bacterial community structure and class abundance was analyzed using redundancy and correlation analyses. We found increased abundances of Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacteroidetes [Sphingobacteriia] post incubation, particularly in permafrost soils. The categorical descriptors site and soil layer had the most explanatory power in our predictive models of bacterial community structure, highlighting the close relationship between soil bacteria and the soil environment. Specific soil chemical attributes characterizing the soil environments that were found to be the best predictors include MIR spectral bands associated with inorganic C, silicates, amide II (C=N stretch), and carboxylics (C-O stretch), and MIR peak ratios representing C substrate quality. Overall, these results further characterize soil bacterial community shifts that may occur as a frozen environment with limited access to C sources, such as is found in undisturbed permafrost, transitions to warmer and more C-available environments, such as is predicted in thawing permafrost due to climate change.

16S rRNA sequencing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗