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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Wavefront distortion correction in scanning tunneling microscope image

Here, we report an algorithm to identify and correct distorted wavefronts in atomic resolution scanning tunneling microscope images. This algorithm can be used to correct nonlinear in-plane distortions without prior knowledge of the physical scanning parameters, the characteristics of the piezoelectric actuator, or individual atom positions. The 2D image is first defined as a sum of sinusoidal plane waves, where a nonlinear distortion renders a curve for an otherwise ideal linear wavefront. Using the Fourier transforms of local areas of the image, the algorithm generates a wavefront vector field. The identified wavefronts are subsequently linearized for each plane wave without changing lattice orders, giving rise to distortion corrections. Our algorithm is complementary to conventional post-processing algorithms that require prior detection of real space features, which can also be used to correct nonlinear distortions in 2D images acquired by other microscopy techniques.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lifetime-resolved photon-correlation Fourier spectroscopy

The excited state population of single solid-state emitters is subjected to energy fluctuations around the equilibrium driven by the bath and relaxation through the emission of phonons or photons. Simultaneous measurement of the associated spectral dynamics requires a technique with a high spectral and temporal resolution with an additionally high temporal dynamic range. We propose a pulsed excitation-laser analog of photon-correlation Fourier spectroscopy (PCFS), which extracts the linewidth and spectral diffusion dynamics along the emission lifetime trajectory of the emitter, effectively discriminating spectral dynamics from relaxation and bath fluctuations . This lifetime-resolved PCFS correlates photon-pairs at the output arm of a Michelson interferometer in both their time-delay between laser-excitation and photon-detection T and the time-delay between two photons τ . We propose the utility of the technique for systems with changing relative contributions to the emission from multiple states, for example, quantum emitters exhibiting phonon-mediated exchange between different fine-structure states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Savannah River Site H-Canyon Advancing Technologies for Remote Inspections - 20345

In 2017, the DOE Environmental Management Office of Technology Development (DOE-EM TD) sponsored the H-Canyon Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD) to demonstrate to DOE facilities the value of using new commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and near-ready technologies to solve difficult problems and enhance worker safety. The DOE Savannah River Site (SRS) H-Canyon Air Exhaust Tunnel (HCAEX) inspection task was identified as representative of the hazardous, human denied environments which could benefit from advanced technologies. The HCAEX underground concrete tunnel is visually inspected biannually using a camera mounted on a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) designed and built by SRNL. While tunnel images have provided valuable visual information, it is desirable to have a higher order of understanding of the environment to support a more thorough structural integrity (SI) analysis and for long term planning purposes. As part of the ATD, the Concrete Integrated Product Team (CIPT) was formed to identify and evaluate available sensors and methods mature enough to remotely obtain tunnel concrete characterization data of high value and with a high probability of success. The team included SMEs and H-Canyon stakeholders in the field of concrete, nondestructive examination (NDE), structural integrity, sensors and remote systems from SRNL, SRNS, LANL, DOE-SR and the Army Corps of Engineering. The CIPT completed an in-depth identification of customer concrete inspection needs and potential technology solutions. Sensors and methods were evaluated on performance, data usefulness, cost and the feasibility of a successful deployment given the unique tunnel access challenges and environment. Two technologies were identified as promising by the CIPT for near term demonstration and evaluation: Lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) 3-dimensional (3D) mapping and remote robotic deployment of NDE instrumentation. Laser spectroscopy to characterize tunnel surface chemical changes was also of interest, but presently cost prohibitive. This paper will include a discussion of the two efforts underway to evaluate and implement the CIPT recommendations. First, the status of the November 2019 deployment of Lidar at a single location into the tunnel is presented. This initial deployment provided the team a learning curve and lessons learned on the challenges of tunnel deployment to include remote operation and data collection, stabilization of the sensor in high air flow (∼30 mph), ability to achieve a tolerance accuracy of 0.25-inches, and the probability to identify change in tunnel dimensions over time. Secondly, a discussion on the development of the Robotic Arm Concrete Inspection Test Bed capable of deploying NDE instruments to examine custom concrete forms will be presented. Concrete forms simulating the rough concrete surfaces, strength, composition and potential structural defects that can be found at our DOE EM facilities have been designed and built for the test bed. Two state-of-the art concrete NDE instruments have been identified as having potential to work on rough concrete walls, they are being tested and characterized as to their ability to provide desired structural integrity data to include wall thickness and defect identification on the developed test beams. Lastly, lessons learned, and the path forward will be presented. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automating the detection of hydrological barriers and fragmentation in wetlands using deep learning and InSAR

The loss of hydrological connectivity and fragmentation of natural wetlands is a widespread driver of wetland degradation. Understanding where and how natural connectivity is impaired is essential for managing, protecting and remediating these ecosystems. Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (Wetland InSAR) can provide information on surface flow orientation in wetlands at a high spatial resolution, which can be used for barrier detection. However, the broad application of this approach is constrained by the labour-intensive manual delineation of barriers based on mapped water levels. This study presents the first deep learning-based methodology for the automated detection of hydrological barriers. We trained a deep convolutional network to segment edge features of hydrological barriers in 25 image pairs captured by ALOS PALSAR-1 L-Band InSAR between 2006 and 2011. The training dataset consists of manually labelled and delineated barriers showing abrupt changes in water surface elevation and wrapped interferograms with high coherence. We tested this method across three wetland sites: the Everglades and southern Louisiana wetlands (United States) and the Cienaga de Zapata (Cuba). Across these sites, the convolutional network detected hydrological barriers with up to 84% accuracy. The model performed particularly well for linear hydrological barriers such as roads, dikes, and channels. Notably, some barriers impede flow only seasonally, appearing during low water levels and disappearing when water levels rise. Our automated approach to detecting and assessing wetland hydrologic connectivity can be applied more broadly to support the effective management of fragmented wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Performance of Three Eye-Tracking Devices in Detection of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury in Acute Versus Chronic Subject Populations

ABSTRACT Introduction Presently, traumatic brain injury (TBI) triage in field settings relies on symptom-based screening tools such as the updated Military Acute Concussion Evaluation. Objective eye-tracking may provide an alternative means of neurotrauma screening due to sensitivity to neurotrauma brain-health changes. Previously, the US Army Medical Research and Development Command Non-Invasive NeuroAssessment Devices (NINAD) Integrated Product Team identified 3 commercially available eye-tracking devices (SyncThink EYE-SYNC, Oculogica EyeBOX, NeuroKinetics IPAS) as meeting criteria toward being operationally effective in the detection of TBI in service members. We compared these devices to assess their relative performance in the classification of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) subjects versus normal healthy controls. Materials and Methods Participants 18 to 45 years of age were assigned to Acute mTBI, Chronic mTBI, or Control group per study criteria. Each completed a TBI assessment protocol with all 3 devices counterbalanced across participants. Acute mTBI participants were tested within 72 hours following injury whereas time since last injury for the Chronic mTBI group ranged from months to years. Discriminant analysis was undertaken to determine device classification performance in separating TBI subjects from controls. Area Under the Curves (AUCs) were calculated and used to compare the accuracy of device performance. Device-related factors including data quality, the need to repeat tests, and technical issues experienced were aggregated for reporting. Results A total of 63 participants were recruited as Acute mTBI subjects, 34 as Chronic mTBI subjects, and 119 participants without history of TBI as controls. To maximize outcomes, poorer quality data were excluded from analysis using specific criteria where possible. Final analysis utilized 49 (43 male/6 female, mean [x̅] age = 24.3 years, SD [s] = 5.1) Acute mTBI subjects, and 34 (33 male/1 female, x̅ age = 38.8 years, s = 3.9) Chronic mTBI subjects were age- and gender-matched as closely as possible with Control subjects. AUCs obtained with 80% of total dataset ranged from 0.690 to 0.950 for the Acute Group and from 0.753 to 0.811 for the Chronic mTBI group. Validation with the remaining 20% of dataset produced AUCs ranging from 0.600 to 0.750 for Acute mTBI group and 0.490 to 0.571 for the Chronic mTBI group. Conclusions Potential eye-tracking detection of mTBI, per training model outcomes, ranged from acceptable to excellent for the Acute mTBI group; however, it was less consistent for the Chronic mTBI group. The self-imposed targeted performance (AUC of 0.850) appears achievable, but further device improvements and research are necessary. Discriminant analysis models differed for the Acute versus Chronic mTBI groups, suggesting performance differences in eye-tracking. Although eye-tracking demonstrated sensitivity in the Chronic group, a more rigorous and/or longitudinal study design is required to evaluate this observation. mTBI injuries were not controlled for this study, potentially reducing eye-tracking assessment sensitivity. Overall, these findings indicate that while eye-tracking remains a viable means of mTBI screening, device-specific variability in data quality, length of testing, and ease of use must be addressed to achieve NINAD objectives and DoD implementation.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Envelope Detector-Based Phase Fault Detection Method for Power System Grid Distortions

In this study, a phase fault detection algorithm is developed by employing the envelope detector method. The proposed method diagnoses faults among phases and defines fault areas in the incoming signal. The designed algorithm consists of three steps: analytical signal conversion, complex magnitude, and fault detection. Initially, an analytical signal is obtained from the incoming power signal to determine the instantaneous amplitude and phase of the signal. A complex magnitude operation is applied to analytical signals to display changes in amplitude. On the basis of the threshold values specified by the user, the last step identifies the distortion signal in terms of the type of error and size. The proposed method is tested with realistically simulated substation power signal data and real power system data from the Grid Event Signature Library. The obtained results revealed that the proposed method detects distortions accurately.

Alaca, Ozgur↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Detection and Localization of Line Trip Event Via Relative Phase Angles

Line trip events widely exist in power systems. They can result in power outages and a huge economic loss if not promptly detected and localized. To provide a fast and precise solution, this paper presents a Complete Coverage of Voltage Measurement (CCVM)-based line trip event detection algorithm and a Relative Phase Angle (RPA)-based line trip event localization algorithm. First, frequency and relative phase angle features during a line trip event are calculated. Then, the CCVM-based algorithm is proposed from both frequency and rate of change of frequency estimation algorithm aspects. Additionally, the RPA-based algorithm is presented, and two cases are studied to demonstrate the uniqueness of the proposed algorithm. Various experiments are conducted, where the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CCVM-based algorithm can detect a line trip event as short as 2.07 ms. In addition, the RPA-based algorithm has 1.26 times higher localization accuracy compared with the frequency magnitude-based and phase angle-based algorithms. In conclusion, the experiment results on the examples from two interconnected power systems in the U.S. verified the performance of the proposed algorithms in wide-area power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reference-free structural variant detection in microbiomes via long-read co-assembly graphs

Motivation: The study of bacterial genome dynamics is vital for understanding the mechanisms underlying microbial adaptation, growth, and their impact on host phenotype. Structural variants (SVs), genomic alterations of 50 base pairs or more, play a pivotal role in driving evolutionary processes and maintaining genomic heterogeneity within bacterial populations. While SV detection in isolate genomes is relatively straightforward, metagenomes present broader challenges due to the absence of clear reference genomes and the presence of mixed strains. In response, our proposed method rhea, forgoes reference genomes and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) by encompassing all metagenomic samples in a series (time or other metric) into a single co-assembly graph. The log fold change in graph coverage between successive samples is then calculated to call SVs that are thriving or declining. Results: We show rhea to outperform existing methods for SV and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) detection in two simulated mock metagenomes, particularly as the simulated reads diverge from reference genomes and an increase in strain diversity is incorporated. We additionally demonstrate use cases for rhea on series metagenomic data of environmental and fermented food microbiomes to detect specific sequence alterations between successive time and temperature samples, suggesting host advantage. Our approach leverages previous work in assembly graph structural and coverage patterns to provide versatility in studying SVs across diverse and poorly characterized microbial communities for more comprehensive insights into microbial gene flux.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting the undetected: Dealing with non-routine events using advanced M&V meter-based savings approaches

In a rapidly evolving energy industry, utilities are dealing with new challenges like integrating distributed energy resources and market saturation for advanced lighting retrofits. Demand-side management programs require new approaches to meet aggressive carbon reduction goals. Advanced measurement & verification (M&V) is an energy data analysis method using smart meter data in combination with analytics to quantify energy efficiency project savings. Advanced M&V shows great promise for supporting next generation commercial programs including retro commissioning, multi-measure retrofits, and behavior change programs. Advanced M&V captures real project impacts at the meter, but sometimes non-project events can also impact consumption (so-called “non-routine events” [NREs]). Accurately detecting and accounting for NREs is important for reducing uncertainty of savings estimates and helps manage investment risk for different stakeholders (e.g., utilities, building owners, ESCOs). Recent research has shown promise in establishing data-driven techniques to identify and adjust for NREs, but fundamental questions still remain, such as: how can you distinguish NREs from acceptable noise in energy consumption profiles? What is the frequency and magnitude of NREs? Can their detection and adjustment be automated and streamlined? This paper documents the state of the art in NRE quantification and analysis. The results of research to quantify the frequency, nature and direction of NREs, and methods and metrics for determining a trigger threshold for taking action on NREs are presented. The paper also documents the latest technical guidance on application of NRE detection and adjustment methods.

Fernandes, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gas adsorption and light interaction mechanism in phosphorene-based field-effect transistors

Phosphorene-based field effect transistor (FET) structures were fabricated to study the gas- and photo-detection properties of phosphorene. The interplay between device performance and environmental conditions was probed and analyzed using in situ transport measurements. The device structures were exposed to different chemical and light environments to understand how they perform under different external stimuli. For the gas/molecule detection studies, inert (Ar), as well as, oxidizing (N 2 O), and reducing (H 2 and also N 2 H 4 ) agents were selected. The FET structure was exposed to these different gases, and the effect of each gas on the device resistance was measured. The study showed varying response towards different molecules. Specifically, no significant resistance change was observed upon exposure to Ar, while H 2 and N 2 H 4 were found to decrease the resistance and N 2 O had the opposite effect resulting in an increase in resistance. This work is the first demonstration for the detection of N 2 H 2 and N 2 O using a phosphorene-based system. These phosphorene-based FET structures were also found to be sensitive to light exposure. When such structure was irradiated with light, the current modulation was lost. The observed resistance changes can be explained as a result of the modulation of the Schottky barrier at the phosphorene-electrical contact interface due to the adsorbed molecules and charge transfer, and/or photo-induced carrier generation. Furthermore, the results were consistent with the transfer characteristics of V ds v s . V g .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the phase between strong and electromagnetic amplitudes in the decay J/ψ → ϕη

The first direct measurement of the relative phase between the strong and electromagnetic amplitudes for a J/ψ decaying into a vector-pseudoscalar final state is performed using 26 energy points of e + e − annihilation data between 3.00 GeV and 3.12 GeV. The data sets were collected by the BESIII detector with a total integrated luminosity of 452 pb −1 . By investigating the interference pattern in the cross section lineshape of e + e − → ϕη, the relative phase between the strong and electromagnetic amplitudes of J/ψ decay is determined to be within [133°, 228°] at 68% confidence level.

QCD↗
DOE OSTI2026

A First Demonstration of the SQUAT Detector Architecture: Direct Measurement of Resonator-Free Charge-Sensitive Transmons

The Superconducting Quasiparticle-Amplifying Transmon (SQUAT) is a new sensor architecture for THz (meV) detection based on a weakly charge-sensitive transmon directly coupled to a transmission line. In such devices, energy depositions break Cooper pairs in the qubit capacitor islands, generating quasiparticles. Quasiparticles that tunnel across the Josephson junction change the transmon qubit parity, generating a measurable signal. In this paper, we present the design of first-generation SQUATs and demonstrate an architecture validation. We summarize initial characterization measurements made with prototype devices, comment on background sources that influence the observed parity-switching rate, and present experimental results showing simultaneous detection of charge and quasiparticle signals using aluminum-based SQUATs.

Magoon, H. [SLAC; KIPAC, Menlo Park; Stanford U., ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Concentration-response gene expression analysis in zebrafish reveals phenotypically-anchored transcriptional responses to retene

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants and are associated with human disease. Canonically, many PAHs induce toxicity via activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) pathway. While the interaction between PAHs and the AHR is well-established, understanding which AHR-regulated transcriptional effects directly result in observable phenotypes and which are adaptive or benign is important to better understand PAH toxicity. Retene is a frequently detected PAH in environmental sampling and has been associated with AHR2-dependent developmental toxicity in zebrafish, though its mechanism of toxicity has not been fully elucidated. To interrogate transcriptional changes causally associated with retene toxicity, we conducted whole-animal RNA sequencing at 48 hours post-fertilization after exposure to eight retene concentrations. The concentrations were selected to produce effects ranging from no phenotype to mortality and malformations in 100% of animals at 5 days post-fertilization. We identified a concentration-response relationship between retene teratogenicity and differential gene expression in both number of DEGs and magnitude of expression change. Elevated expression of cyp1a at retene concentrations below the threshold for teratogenicity suggested that while cyp1a expression is a sensitive biomarker of AHR activation, it may be too sensitive to serve as a biomarker of AHR-dependent teratogenicity. Genes differentially expressed at only non-teratogenic concentrations were enriched for transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) signaling pathway disruption while DEGs identified at only teratogenic concentrations were significantly enriched for response to xenobiotic stimulus and reduction-oxidation reaction activity. DEGs which spanned both non-teratogenic and teratogenic concentrations showed similar disrupted biological processes to those unique to teratogenic concentrations, indicating these processes were disrupted at low exposure concentrations. Gene co-expression network analysis identified several gene modules, including those associated with PAHs and AHR2 activation. One, Module 7, was strongly enriched for AHR2-associated genes and contained the strongest responses to retene. Benchmark concentration (BMC) of Module 7 genes identified a median BMC of 7.5 µM, nearly the highest retene concentration with no associated teratogenicity, supporting the hypothesis that Module 7 genes are largely responsible for retene toxicity.

Toxin, Zebrafish, Retene, Transcriptomics, network↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting hidden transient events in noisy nonlinear time-series

The information impulse function (IIF), running Variance, and local Hölder Exponent are three conceptually different time-series evaluation techniques. These techniques examine time-series for local changes in information content, statistical variation, and point-wise smoothness, respectively. Using simulated data emulating a randomly excited nonlinear dynamical system, this study interrogates the utility of each method to correctly differentiate a transient event from the background while simultaneously locating it in time. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to evaluate the efficacy of each technique by varying pulse size, time location, and noise level in time-series. Our findings reveal that, in most cases, the first instance of a transient event is more easily observed with the information-based approach of IIF than with the Variance and local Hölder Exponent methods. While our study highlights the unique strengths of each technique, the results suggest that very robust and reliable event detection for nonlinear systems producing noisy time-series data can be obtained by incorporating the IIF into the analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6

Abstract. This paper documents the experimental setup and general features of the coupled historical and future climate simulations with the first version of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1.0). The future projected climate characteristics of E3SMv1.0 at the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) designed in the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) and the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) only forcing experiment are analyzed with a focus on regional responses of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. Due to its high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS of 5.3 K), E3SMv1.0 is one of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the largest surface warming by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The global mean precipitation change is highly correlated with the global temperature change, while the spatial pattern of the change in runoff is consistent with the precipitation changes. The oceanic mixed layer generally shoals throughout the global ocean. The annual mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is overly weak with a slower change from ∼ 11 to ∼ 6 Sv (Sverdrup) relative to other CMIP6 models. The sea ice, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases rapidly with large seasonal variability. We detect a significant polar amplification in E3SMv1.0 from the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Comparing the SSP5-8.5 all-forcing experiment with the GHG-only experiment, we find that the unmasking of the aerosol effects due to the decline of the aerosol loading in the future projection period causes transient accelerated warming in the all-forcing experiment in the first half of the 21st century. While the oceanic climate response is mainly controlled by the GHG forcing, the land runoff response is impacted primarily by forcings other than GHG over certain regions, e.g., southern North America, southern Africa, central Africa, and eastern Asia. However, the importance of the GHG forcing on the land runoff changes grows in the future climate projection period compared to the historical period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Further Investigation on Chromospheric and Prominence Activity of the RS Canum Venaticorum Star SZ Piscium

To continue our study on chromospheric activity and detection for possible prominence events of the very active RS Canum Venaticorum star SZ Piscium (SZ Psc), long-term high-resolution spectroscopic observations were obtained during several observing runs from 2014 to 2018. Based on the spectral subtraction technique, the chromospheric emission of the Ca ii IRT (λ8662, λ8542, and λ8498), H{sub α}, Na i D{sub 1}, D{sub 2} doublet, H{sub β}, and Ca ii H & K lines is mainly associated with the K1 IV primary star of the SZ Psc system, in good agreement with the previous studies, and the F8 V secondary star also shows some chromospheric emission, implying its active chromosphere. Moreover, an optical flare characterized by the He i D{sub 3} line emission together with stronger emission in the other indicators was detected. Furthermore, two chromospheric active longitudes around the two quadratures of the system were identified for most of the time, and the chromospheric activity shows significant changes during a few orbital cycles. The chromospheric activity level seems to show a long-term variation during our observations. There were some excess absorption features in the subtracted H{sub α} line and the other activity indicators, which would be caused by prominence-like materials associated with the K1 IV primary star of the system. Prominence materials could absorb the chromospheric emission and continuum from the K1 IV primary star and even the F8 V secondary one.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Observation of Defect‐Aided Structural Evolution in a Nickel‐Rich Layered Cathode

Abstract Ni‐rich LiNi 1− x − y Mn x Co y O 2 (NMC) layered compounds are the dominant cathode for lithium ion batteries. The role of crystallographic defects on structure evolution and performance degradation during electrochemical cycling is not yet fully understood. Here, we investigated the structural evolution of a Ni‐rich NMC cathode in a solid‐state cell by in situ transmission electron microscopy. Antiphase boundary (APB) and twin boundary (TB) separating layered phases played an important role on phase change. Upon Li depletion, the APB extended across the layered structure, while Li/transition metal (TM) ion mixing in the layered phases was detected to induce the rock‐salt phase formation along the coherent TB. According to DFT calculations, Li/TM mixing and phase transition were aided by the low diffusion barriers of TM ions at planar defects. This work reveals the dynamical scenario of secondary phase evolution, helping unveil the origin of performance fading in Ni‐rich NMC.

Li, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗