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DOE OSTI2024

A Modeling framework for flocculated cohesive sediment transport in the current bottom boundary layer

Cohesive sediment transport, where its settling velocity is controlled by the flocculation process, is a crucial component in determining biochemical cycles, fate of pollutants, and morphodynamics in many aquatic ecosystems. In this study, a modeling framework is presented to investigate how flocculation influences cohesive sediment transport in the current bottom boundary layer in dilute conditions, consistent with the calibration range of the flocculation model. From a local analysis of floc dynamics in homogenous turbulence, we identify that the floc size distribution is mainly controlled by floc cohesion and yield strength. The uncertainty in fractal dimension plays a minor role for the floc size but it influences the resulting floc density and settling velocity. The transport analysis in the current boundary layer shows that the flocculation process alters the vertical distribution of the settling velocity and hence the sediment concentration with a strong dependence on cohesion, floc yield strength, and floc structure. When the flocs are more susceptible to breaking, a well-mixed concentration profile is obtained. In contrast, for flocs with higher cohesion or yield strength, higher concentration with a sharp gradient is observed close to the bed. Overall, the settling velocity exhibits a low vertical variability within 20 % of the depth-averaged value except near the bed. Further, this suggests that using a depth-averaged settling velocity yields acceptable predictions of the sediment concentration profiles, especially for flocs with lower cohesion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative performance and technoeconomic analyses of two microalgae harvesting systems evaluated at a commercially relevant scale

Using a commercially scalable system designed for processing thousands of liters a day, here we evaluated the factors that affected the performance, energy consumption and capital/operating costs of both flocculation-based and filtration-based algal harvesting systems over a 16 month period. Coagulation efficiency was the primary driver of harvest efficiency in the flocculation-based method, while cell lysis was important for the filtration-based method. Culture (algae) age differentially influenced harvest efficiency through changes in cell fragility and stickiness. The average energy consumption of the flocculation-based method was 0.389 kWh/m 3 , while that for the filtration-based method was 4.343 kWh/m 3 . The average harvesting cost of the filtration-based method was 5.35 $\$$/m 3 , while for flocculation-based method it was 4.52 $\$$/m 3 . The concentration factor of filtration-based and flocculation-based method were 770–1086 and 407–448, respectively. For both harvesting methods, labor costs dominated and ranged from 55.84%–67.94% of total cost. Further system automation is a potential method to lower the harvesting cost. The filtration-based harvesting method could produce a better quality of algal biomass with higher concentration factors and less ash content, but needed more energy input, as compared with a flocculation-based method. This study highlights the importance of algal culture status to successful harvesting, and it also provides insight into developing more efficient harvesting technology with lower energy and capital cost.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A streamlined approach to characterize microalgae strains for biomass productivity under dynamic climate simulation conditions

Screening microalgae strains under static light and temperature flask conditions cannot directly quantify the biomass productivities of algae growing in the dynamically fluctuating light and temperature conditions of outdoor ponds. In this effort, we describe a testing pipeline that screens for productivity under climate simulated conditions. A validated, miniaturized Laboratory Environmental Algae Pond Simulator (mini-LEAPS) photobioreactor was used to determine optimal medium salinities and biomass productivities of cold-tolerant microalgae collected from Arctic, subarctic, Antarctic, and subalpine habitats. Strains characterized in this effort include: Chlorella antarctica UTEX1959, Chlorella sp. UTEXSNO69, Chloromonas rosae UTEXSNO11, Phaeodactylum tricornutum UTEX646, and Stichococcus minutus CCALA727. Observed productivities of the characterized strains ranged from 1.74 ± 0.25 to 8.18 ± 0.81 g m –2 day –1 (as ash-free dry weight). For each strain, a temperature tolerance profile was generated to identify the most appropriate season (s) for cultivation. The two most promising strains, Chlorella sp. UTEX SNO69 and P. tricornutum UTEX646, were tested alongside the DISCOVR winter benchmark strain Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM in outdoor open ponds at the PNNL Algae Testbed (PAT) in Arizona. Further, under cold-season outdoor pond conditions, Chlorella sp. UTEXSNO69 achieved average areal biomass productivities of 8.21 ± 0.50 g m –2 day –1 , not significantly different from that of the benchmark strain (8.52 ± 0.43 g m –2 day –1 , p > 0.05). Under spring outdoor pond conditions, P. tricornutum UTEX646 achieved average areal biomass productivities 10.34 ± 0.27 g m –2 day –1 , not significantly different from that of the benchmark (10.07 ± 0.50 g m –2 day –1 ) under the tested conditions (p > 0.05). The streamlined pipeline was thus demonstrated to successfully characterize productive microalgae strains for outdoor deployment by weeding out algae strains that were not productive under the tested dynamic light and temperature conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A multiscale approach to analyze the effect of radial void fraction distributions on BWR neutronic lattice parameters

The goal of this study is to analyze the effect of radial void fraction distribution, considered at three degrees of fidelity, on lattice and 2-group homogenized cross sections. The novelty of this work lies in its use of experimentally-determined radial void fraction distributions which allows for fine-scale coolant density data with no predictive uncertainty and which could be prohibitively expensive to simulate over the range of operational parameters used in the experiments. The experimentally-determined radial void fraction distributions are also characterized using a statistical tool called a semi-variogram in order to determine the scale of continuity. Void fraction distributions are averaged at the lattice and subchannel level for comparison with the fine-scale model. Models averaged at the subchannel and lattice level show a difference in about 68% of the time. Also, by comparing 2-group homogenized cross-sections, the differences between the subchannel and homogeneous cases are measurable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics analysis of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility–Part 3: Thermal hydraulic evaluation of large break LOCA under high-burnup conditions

Increasing the peak rod average burnup of pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel beyond 62 GWd/tU may increase fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) susceptibility during a large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA). TRACE thermal hydraulic (TH) LBLOCA analyses were performed for a realistic 24-month high-burnup PWR equilibrium cycle, to inform subsequent transient BISON high-burnup FFRD susceptibility evaluations. Realistic LBLOCA systems behavior was first established by configuring to and comparing with the BEMUSE OECD LBLOCA benchmark. Fuel and operating conditions were then applied from high-burnup VERA depletion calculations. LBLOCA simulations were performed for 281 selected high-burnup rods, for which transient TH boundary conditions were collected for later use in BISON. The TRACE results indicated that rod linear heat rate (rather than burnup) is the main predictor of peak cladding temperature (PCT) during the event. PCT typically occurred at a local burnup lower than the rod-average burnup, especially for twice-burned fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic response of a freely rotating butterfly valve in the advanced test reactor − dynamic coefficients modeling

Here, in evaluating the water hammer issue pertaining to the primary-coolant-regulating butterfly valve in the Advanced Test Reactor, the dynamic fluid body interaction (DFBI) approach was implemented in the analysis covered in Part I. Although DFBI modeling accurately and simultaneously solved the dynamic motion of the valve’s disk along with the flow field of the surrounding fluid, it shed little light on the reason behind such motion. For Part II, the reacting torque of the fluid on the disk was decomposed into representations of the dynamic coefficients in terms of stiffness, damping, and added mass. These were evaluated via simulations with steady-state static (stiffness), constant angular speed (damping), and variable angular speed (added mass) disks. Substituting the dynamic coefficients into Newton’s second law enabled the response trajectories to be obtained. Stable (by average) and unstable equilibrium positions and thrust tendencies of the valve were determined based on the stiffness coefficient (or static torque), the response amplitude was dampened or enlarged by the damping coefficient (minorly affected by added mass), and the response frequency was altered by the damping and added mass coefficients. Although the dynamic coefficient approach renders slightly different trajectories, due to the averaging effect of the torque in comparison to the DFBI method, the overall trend of the response aligns with the DFBI simulation, thus confirming the conclusion in Part I that a fix to the current butterfly valve is necessary.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impact of wind, solar, and other factors on the decline in wholesale power prices in the United States

Across multiple organized wholesale power markets in the United States, annual average prices declined by 19–64 dollars per MWh between 2008 and 2017 while retirements of thermal power plants accelerated. Several prominent changes over the last decade are often discussed as contributors to this decline in prices. These include growth in wind and solar, a reduction in the price of natural gas, and weakened load growth. Here we construct a fundamental supply curve model for each of seven organized wholesale market regions and use counterfactual simulations to assess the degree to which wind and solar—among other factors—have influenced wholesale electricity prices. We find that growth in wind and solar since 2008 reduced average annual wholesale electricity prices by less than 3 dollars per MWh. In contrast the decline in natural gas prices reduced wholesale prices by 7–53 dollars per MWh, depending on the region. This suggests that recent thermal-plant retirements in the U.S. are primarily due to low natural gas prices, not growth in wind and solar. Fully isolating the impact of individual factors, however, is limited by non-linear interactions between factors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Azimuth Estimation of Solar Arrays in Low-Resolution Satellite Imagery through Semantic Segmentation and Hough Transform

This paper explains the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to segment solar panels in a satellite image containing solar arrays, and extract associated metadata from the arrays. A novel unsupervised technique is introduced to estimate the azimuth of each individual solar panel from the predicted mask of the convolutional neural network. This pipeline was developed with the aim of extracting necessary metadata for a solar installation, using only a set of latitude–longitude coordinates. Azimuth prediction results for 669 individual solar installations associated with 387 sites located across the United States are provided. A mean average error and median average error of 21.65 degrees and 1.0 degrees were obtained, respectively, when predicting the azimuth of the solar fleet data set, with about 80% of the results within an error of zero degrees of the ground truth azimuth value and about 85% within an error of 25 degrees. The predicted azimuth was then used to estimate the energy conversion of the solar arrays. Results show a 90.9 and 90.6 R-squared value for estimating alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) energy, respectively, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.70% in estimating the alternating current (AC) energy using the fully automated algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-facility analysis using metered power data to quantify MRI energy use and utility bill costs across scanner operating modes

This study quantifies the energy consumption of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners across discrete operating modes during routine clinical workflows, based solely on electrical power measurements. Although previous studies have investigated MRI energy consumption within single hospitals or specific clinical settings, this research provides a broader and more systematic analysis. Researchers analyzed electrical power data and applied a previously developed semi-automatic method for identifying MRI operating modes using load duration curves for 20 MRI scanners across four different U.S. healthcare facilities, encompassing outpatient, inpatient, and mixed-use clinical settings. A key innovation is the inclusion of localized hourly utility rates to estimate costs, a parameter absent in prior literature. Key findings indicate significant variability in energy and cost profiles between weekdays and weekends. Scanner characteristics, including magnet strength, manufacturer, vintage, location, and clinical setting, influenced average daily energy consumption and power thresholds for operating modes. Notably, the clinical setting of a scanner predominantly determines its energy use. For example, the scanners in outpatient facilities consumed more energy. The breakdown of energy usage and costs by operating modes showed scanners spend between 61% and 93% of their time in nonproductive modes, with one outlier spending 34%. Average daily energy use for the scanners in the study ranged from 160 to 1069 kWh, with energy costs ranging from $\$$9 to $\$$149. This study uses an existing framework to quantify MRI energy behavior, leading to insights that can enable improved performance and cost savings across different healthcare environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of fuel film formation and soot emissions in a GDI engine during cold-start with Split-injection strategies

This study investigates the impact of fuel-film formation on engine-out soot emissions in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine under cold-start conditions. Split-injection strategies were applied by varying the number of injections, injection duration, and total fuel quantity to affect wall wetting and control the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio. A combined experimental and numerical approach was employed to analyze fuel-film deposition, combustion efficiency, and engine-out soot and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) emissions. In particular, fuel film distribution estimated by means of non-reacting, 3-D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, together with experimentally measured soot data, were used to investigate fuel film formation and its role in soot generation. In the experiments, a skip-fired engine control strategy was applied to mimic the transient nature of engine cold-start operation. The results indicate that, under the same total number of injections, increasing the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio through longer injection durations improves combustion stability, as indicated by the decrease of the coefficient of variation of IMEP n (Net Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) from 6.0 % to 0.6 %. However, this strategy leads to higher soot emissions, which increased by nearly an order of magnitude, primarily due to enhanced wall-film formation. In contrast, increasing the number of injections while maintaining a constant equivalence ratio significantly impacts fuel-film deposition and, consequently, soot emissions, with a fivefold reduction of the measured engine-out soot, decreasing from 3.5 mg to 0.7 mg. A soot-film correlation was developed and achieved a high coefficient of determination (r 2 = 0.95) and was further extended to account for spark timing effects. These findings confirm the effectiveness of split-injection for avoiding wall film formation and soot emissions, and the critical role of fuel film in soot generation, supporting the hypothesis that pool fires play a crucial role in contributing to soot formation under these cold-start conditions. In conclusion, the study also indicates the value of a predictive soot-film correlation for developing cold-start emission control strategies.

Engine Cold-start↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating alternative steam generation pathways in the food industry

Steam generation in the food sector requires substantial energy and cost expenditures, requiring nearly half of its energy intake. Here, we used life cycle assessment and life cycle cost assessment to investigate the cost and energy impacts of steam generating alternatives: NG, biomass and hydrogen boilers and grid-supplied and self-generated electric steam generation systems (electric boilers, renewable thermal energy storage and industrial heat pumps). The analysis starts with a set of average U.S. conditions, where biomass boilers are the most cost-competitive alternative to NG. In a series of scenarios beyond average conditions, the analysis shows energy procurement costs dominate the total life cycle cost for all technologies and, unfortunately, are highly variable geographically and temporally, significantly affecting the viability of the alternatives. Results show that site-energy consumption ranges from 0.3 MMBtu/klb for industrial heat pumps to 1.6 MMBtu/klb for biomass boilers, with heat pumps achieving up to 78% lower energy use compared to natural gas systems. For the steam costs, the results show a range between $\$$8 and $\$$50/klb for NG, with biomass following closely ($\$$11 – $\$$44/klb) and grey hydrogen and IHP next ($\$$13 – $\$$33/klb and $\$$6 - $\$$78/klb), with cost reductions if IHP's cooling is utilized. Factors like operating hours, the need for cooling, and the ability to negotiate utility rates complicate the decision, making site-specific analyses critical. Therefore, we present a decision-making matrix to help manufacturers identify which steam generating technology is the best business decision for their situation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of steam generation for the facility's organizational goals, as well as the criticality of conducting individual site analyses.

Biomass boilers↗

DOE OSTI2025

High resolution variability in wet deposition in the southeastern United States

Rainwater chemistry is determined by atmospheric pollutants and particles which vary spatially and temporally. Industrial and agricultural activities and meteorological events (e.g. sea breezes, severe weather, blowing dust) alter atmospheric particle and trace gas compositions. These gases and particles are scavenged by cloud and rain droplets that drive wet deposition. During an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) from April to October 2021, rainwater was collected at higher frequency intervals, usually daily, after precipitation events at three locations on the Savannah River Site (SRS). The farthest locations were separated by approximately 20 km. The mean concentration (μeq/L) of seven ions followed the Cl⁻ > SO 4 2− > Na⁺ > NO 3 ⁻ > K⁺ > Mg 2+ > Ca 2+ downward trend. Ion concentrations were compared to background ion concentrations from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The high frequency monthly averaged SRS data compared well with the monthly averaged NADP background but demonstrated extensive variability. In some months in 2021, the high frequency data compared better to the NADP site near the coast while in other months inland sites compared better. Strong spatial variability for ion concentrations was observed across SRS which was attributed to localized impacts in rainfall spatial variability. High frequency measurements allowed for comparison to regional weather patterns indicating influences from the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and cities. This can account for spatial variability in the wet deposition flux. Sea breezes, Saharan dust, and anthropogenic sources were shown to impact wet deposition flux variability. Higher frequency precipitation chemistry sampling at numerous locations better captures ion concentration variability and improves measurement representativeness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of substrate tilt on sputter-deposited AuTa films

Gold-tantalum alloy films are of interest for biomedical and magnetically-assisted inertial confinement fusion applications. However, growth mechanisms of such Au-Ta alloy films are not well understood. Here, we systematically study the effect of substrate tilt on properties of films deposited by direct current magnetron sputtering from a AuTa alloy target. Experimental data is correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of sputtered and backscattered species calculated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Results reveal that the deposition rate and film density monotonically decrease with increasing substrate tilt. Properties are similar for films with a tilt of 40° and below: films are amorphous, with an average compressive stress of 0.5 GPa, a density of 16 g/cm 3 , and electrical resistivity of 200 μΩ cm. The critical substrate tilt angle for the onset of porosity, a transition to a reduced stress state, and an increase in electrical resistivity lies between 40 and 60°. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, these changes in film properties are correlated with an increase in the average impact angle of the ballistic component of atomic flux. Implications of these results to deposition onto non-planar substrates are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for low-energy neutrinos from astrophysical sources with Borexino

We report on searches for neutrinos and antineutrinos from astrophysical sources performed with the Borexino detector at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. Electron antineutrinos ( $\bar{ν}_e$ ) are detected in an organic liquid scintillator through the inverse β -decay reaction. In the present work we set model-independent upper limits in the energy range 1.8-16.8 MeV on neutrino fluxes from unknown sources that improve our previous results, on average, by a factor 2.5. Using the same data set, we first obtain experimental constraints on the diffuse supernova $\bar{ν}_e$ fluxes in the previously unexplored region below 8 MeV. A search for $\bar{ν}_e$ in the solar neutrino flux is also presented: the presence of $\bar{ν}_e$ would be a manifestation of a non-zero anomalous magnetic moment of the neutrino, making possible its conversion to antineutrinos in the strong magnetic field of the Sun. We obtain a limit for a solar $\bar{ν}_e$ flux of 384 cm -2 s -1 (90% C.L.), assuming an undistorted solar 8 B neutrinos energy spectrum, that corresponds to a transition probability pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 7.2 ×10-5 (90% C.L.) for E $\bar{ν}_e$ > 1.8 MeV.At lower energies, by investigating the spectral shape of elastic scattering events, we obtain a new limit on solar 7 Be- ν e conversion into $\bar{ν}_e$ of pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 0.14 (90% C.L.) at 0.862 MeV. Last, we investigate solar flares as possible neutrino sources and obtain the strongest up-to-date limits on the fluence of neutrinos of all flavor neutrino below 3–7 MeV. Assuming the neutrino flux to be proportional to the flare’s intensity, we exclude an intense solar flare as the cause of the observed excess of events in run 117 of the Cl-Ar Homestake experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid increase in tropospheric ozone over Southeast Asia attributed to changes in precursor emission source regions and sectors

Observations indicate that tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) concentrations over Southeast Asia have been increasing rapidly since the 1990s. Here, we quantify source contributions from geographical regions and emission sectors of the two distinct types of O 3 precursors, i.e., nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), to the increase in tropospheric O 3 in Southeast Asia during 1990–2019 using an O 3 source tagging technique implemented in a global chemistry-climate model. In this work, the results show that although local anthropogenic emission of NO x in Southeast Asia only contributes 18% of the annual averaged near-surface O 3 concentration, the increase in local NO x emission dominates the increasing trend of O 3 concentration in Southeast Asia, accounting for 107% of the regional averaged trend of 1.07 ppb decade -1 . Increases in NO x emissions from East Asia and South Asia explain 29% of the increasing trend, but 9% is offset by the emission reduction in North America. Ground transportation is responsible for 79% of the rapid O 3 increase, followed by 39% contribution from international shipping. Because an increase in anthropogenic NO x emissions enhances the O 3 production efficiency by VOCs, the increase in near-surface O 3 concentrations in Southeast Asia is thereby largely contributed by methane and biogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗