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DOE OSTI2024

Non-Thermal Solar Wind Electron Velocity Distribution Function

The quiet-time solar wind electrons feature non-thermal characteristics when viewed from the perspective of their velocity distribution functions. They typically have an appearance of being composed of a denser thermal “core” population plus a tenuous energetic “halo” population. At first, such a feature was empirically fitted with the kappa velocity space distribution function, but ever since the ground-breaking work by Tsallis, the space physics community has embraced the potential implication of the kappa distribution as reflecting the non-extensive nature of the space plasma. From the viewpoint of microscopic plasma theory, the formation of the non-thermal electron velocity distribution function can be interpreted in terms of the plasma being in a state of turbulent quasi-equilibrium. Such a finding brings forth the possible existence of a profound inter-relationship between the non-extensive statistical state and the turbulent quasi-equilibrium state. The present paper further develops the idea of solar wind electrons being in the turbulent equilibrium, but, unlike the previous model, which involves the electrostatic turbulence near the plasma oscillation frequency (i.e., Langmuir turbulence), the present paper considers the impact of transverse electromagnetic turbulence, particularly, the turbulence in the whistler-mode frequency range. It is found that the coupling of spontaneously emitted thermal fluctuations and the background turbulence leads to the formation of a non-thermal electron velocity distribution function of the type observed in the solar wind during quiet times. This demonstrates that the whistler-range turbulence represents an alternative mechanism for producing the kappa-like non-thermal distribution, especially close to the Sun and in the near-Earth space environment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions Leading to a Fumigation Event

During the afternoon of 30 January 2022, the Savannah River Site experienced unusual temperature conditions leading to a fumigation event that triggered safety alarms and caused considerable confusion about the cause of the event. Normally, it is assumed that fumigation events occur early in the day once surface heating has begun. While most fumigation events are related to the breakup of a nocturnal inversion, this event was related to synoptic atmospheric conditions, which provided a more unique scenario that led to the fumigation event. The unusual synoptic atmospheric conditions led to the downwash and fumigation of the elevated plume, causing a pollutant to mix rapidly to the surface. These conditions could have potentially harmed workers within the facility, since the plume was directed toward a building air intake system. Here, we seek to outline the conditions that led to this unusual fumigation event and provide results of two-dimensional (2D) wind modeling of the event to characterize these conditions for future operational guidance of the facility air intake systems. This work sets the groundwork for future high-resolution modeling to explore the mechanisms and thresholds affecting fumigation on the facility-specific short distance scales and improve forecasting of non-standard fumigation events to protect human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Two-Step Time-Series Data Clustering Method for Building-Level Load Profile

Residential and commercial buildings have huge potential to contribute value to improve grid resilience by participating grid services. To reveal the significant value, it is critical to estimate the grid service capability from these buildings. Unlike the large-scale distributed energy resources such as wind and solar farms, those buildings need to participate grid services in aggregation, not by individual. Therefore, it is important to appropriately group buildings for aggregation. The load profiles in the same group will have similar characteristics at the same time step, so grid operators can send the grid service signal to the customer group with a higher chance to respond at that time step. In this paper, we develop a load profile clustering method to classify the building-level load profiles for grid service capability estimation. In our two-step clustering approach, we first calculate the total load consumption for each building, clustering the load profiles based on energy consumption level. Then, we further cluster the load profiles in each energy cluster based on the load shape. The parameter selection for each clustering step is discussed. The proposed method is applied on actual building-level load profiles, and the results have proved the effectiveness of this method.

advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reports from the Frontier: Understanding Voltage Losses in Anion Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

With the growth of renewable energy sources, hydrogen is attracting significant attention worldwide as an effective medium for energy storage. “Green hydrogen” is currently produced primarily by water electrolysis in which water is split into hydrogen and oxygen using power from low-carbon energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear. Among the low temperature water electrolysis technologies, anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs) have recently emerged as a promising competitor to traditional alkaline water electrolyzers (AWEs) and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers (PEMELs) due to their potential stack cost reduction in various cell components. In conclusion, favorable aspects of AEMWEs include the use of PGM-free electrocatalysts as well as low-cost membranes, bipolar plates (BPs), and porous transport layers while offering high voltage efficiency and durability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evolving Architectures and Considerations to address Distributed Energy Resources and Non-Wired Alternatives

The electric grid is in the beginning stage of a transformation, driven by a combination of shutdowns of coal-fired plants, commissioning of new natural-gas plants, and tremendous growth in energy supply from renewables such as wind, and solar. As utilities navigate this transformation, their progress is supported by advances in Operational Technologies (OT), and Informational Technologies (IT), such as automation, smart inverters, cloud computing, mobile computing, machine learning, big data analytics, which have the potential to enable advanced capabilities more efficiently and at a lower cost. This white paper focuses on the architectural considerations that will allow the industry to transition in a planned manner. It introduces and formalizes two architectural constructs –the data bus and the control bus. The data bus is responsible for carrying all non-operational models and information necessary to drive utility decisions. In contrast, the control bus is responsible for carrying all operational data and control actions taken at the local level, centralized level, or other levels in-between. The paper reviews those architectural considerations, their requirements and how they will evolve. This paper intends to provide a context for vendors, utilities, and their service providers to review and understand the changes that are coming and get ready for them.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Commercialization of Distribution System Load Modeling Tool for Improved DER Interconnection Studies

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Review on Protection Challenges on Transmission Lines Connected to Inverter Based Resources

The increased penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) connected to transmission grids is challenging how traditional electric power systems operate. Such systems were originally designed based on the dominant presence of synchronous generators. Some main challenges include the increased concerns about system stability due to the reduced system inertia caused by IBRs and the reduced protection reliability caused by the non-deterministic fault current response of IBRs. The protection relays’ algorithms have been designed and validated based on well-known fault current characteristics of synchronous generations, while the short-circuit responses of IBRs heavily depend on their vendor-specific control schemes, which are mainly set to protect inverter semiconductor switches and DC components. The magnitude of short current that IBRs contribute is typically between 1.1–1.5 times the rated current that may behave unstably and incoherently with the voltages. The control scheme of the IBRs also controls the active (P) and reactive (Q) support during system voltage sag and swell conditions. These characteristics challenge not only protective relay schemes but also existing short-circuit software tools to correctly model IBRs for fault studies and protection coordination analyses. Utilities, university researchers, research institutes, and relay manufacturers have performed studies to investigate different aspects of high IBR penetration. Almost all studies support 1) creating international and national standards to regulate the IBRs, 2) revising engineering tools to address shortcomings, and 3) adjusting the protective relay settings to resolve protection problems. This paper summarizes the studies and research conducted in recent years to quantify the impact of IBR penetration on transmission line protection and to identify potential solutions to improve the dependability and reliability of grid protection systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Two-Step Time-Series Data Clustering Method for Building-Level Load Profile

AMI↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Two-Step Time-Series Data Clustering Method for Building-Level Load Profile: Preprint

Residential and commercial buildings have huge potential to contribute value to improve grid resilience by participating grid services. To reveal the significant value, it is critical to estimate the grid service capability from these buildings. Unlike the large-scale distributed energy resources such as wind and solar farms, those buildings need to participate grid services in aggregation, not by individual. Therefore, it is important to appropriately group buildings for aggregation. In this paper, we develop a load profile clustering method to classify the building-level load profiles for grid service capability estimation. In our two-step clustering approach, we first calculate the total load consumption for each building, clustering the load profiles based on energy consumption level. Then, we further cluster the load profiles in each energy cluster based on the load shape. The parameter selection for each clustering step is discussed. The proposed method is applied on actual building-level load profiles, and the results have proved the effectiveness of this method.

advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Review on Protection Challenges of Transmission Lines Connected to Inverter-Based Resources

Utilities, university researchers, research institutes, and relay manufacturers have performed studies to investigate different aspects of high IBR penetration. Almost all studies support 1) creating international and national standards to regulate the IBRs, 2) revising engineering tools to address shortcomings, and 3) adjusting the protective relay settings to resolve protection problems. This paper summarizes the studies and research conducted in recent years to quantify the impact of IBR penetration on transmission line protection and to identify potential solutions to improve the dependability and reliability of grid protection systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗

DOE OSTI2024

Direct cross-section measurement of the weak r -process Sr 88 ( α , n ) Zr 91 reaction in ν -driven winds of core-collapse supernovae

About half of the heavy elements beyond iron are known to be produced by the rapid neutron capture process, known as the r process. However, the astrophysical site producing the r process is still uncertain. Chemical abundances observed in several cosmic sites indicate that different mechanisms should be at play. For instance, the abundances around silver measured in a subset of metal-poor stars indicate the presence of a weak r process. This process may be active in neutrino-driven winds of core collapse supernovae where (α,n) reactions dominate the synthesis of Ζ ≈ 40 elements in the expelled materials. Scarcely measured, the rates of (α,n) reactions are determined from statistical Hauser-Feshbach calculations with α-optical-model potentials, which are still poorly constrained. Further, the uncertainties of the (α,n) reaction rates therefore make a significant contribution to the uncertainties of the abundances determined from stellar modeling. In this work, the 88 Sr (α,n)⁢ 91 Zr reaction which impacts the weak r-process abundances has been probed at astrophysics energy for the first time; directly measuring the total cross sections at astrophysical energies of 8.37–13.09 MeV in the center of mass (3.8–7.5 GK). Two measurements were performed at ATLAS with the electrically segmented ionization chamber MUSIC, in inverse kinematics, while following the active target technique. The cross sections of this α-induced reaction on 88 Sr, located at the shell closure N = 50, have been found to be lower than expected, by a factor of 3, despite recent statistical calculations validated by measurements on neighboring nuclei. This result encourages more experimental investigations of (α,n) reactions, at Ν = 50 and towards the neutron-rich side, to further test the predictive power and reliability of such calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Composite Structural Materials for Heliostat Cost Reduction

Structures manufactured from steel comprise up to 40% of a CSP heliostat's cost. Composite structures represent a potential opportunity to reduce this cost. A reference heliostat structural model has been created with a reflector area of 25m 2 . The design, constructed of low-carbon steel, pro-vides baseline deflection and stiffness under a 21 m/s operating wind speeds. Wind loads on the tracker structure are determined for both operating and stow conditions. An established roster of suitable metal alternative materials is considered including: glass, basalt, and carbon reinforced polymer (GFRP, BFRP, and CFRP respectively). Three heliostat components are investigated: the pylon, torque tube, and the purlin-strut assembly. Composite material properties are substituted for those of steel, and the beams are re-sized to match the original steel components' deflection under given wind loads. Weight and cost changes resulting from this resizing are evaluated. It is found that GFRP and BFRP represent a 3X–6X cost premium for the same operating deflection character-istics as steel across all three investigated component classes; with weight reduction only achieved for the purlin-strut assembly. While CFRP components can achieve approximately 25–75% weight savings depending on the application, this comes with a 9X–14X cost increase over the steel base-line for tube-type structures and roughly 5X cost increase when replacing c-channel structures. This work does not rule out the possibility of cost savings when the heliostat design and kinematics to take advantage of composites' specific properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The 2020 Skyrmionics Roadmap

The notion of non-trivial topological winding in condensed matter systems represents a major area of present-day theoretical and experimental research. Magnetic materials offer a versatile platform that is particularly amenable for the exploration of topological spin solitons in real space such as skyrmions. First identified in non-centrosymmetric bulk materials, the rapidly growing zoology of materials systems hosting skyrmions and related topological spin solitons includes bulk compounds, surfaces, thin films, heterostructures, nano-wires and nano-dots. This underscores an exceptional potential for major breakthroughs ranging from fundamental questions to applications as driven by an interdisciplinary exchange of ideas between areas in magnetism which traditionally have been pursued rather independently. The skyrmionics roadmap provides a review of the present state of the art and the wide range of research directions and strategies currently under way. These are, for instance, motivated by the identification of the fundamental structural properties of skyrmions and related textures, processes of nucleation and annihilation in the presence of non-trivial topological winding, an exceptionally efficient coupling to spin currents generating spin transfer torques at tiny current densities, as well as the capability to purpose- design broad-band spin dynamic and logic devices.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of weather on gobbling activity of male wild turkeys

Gobbling activity of Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris; hereafter, turkeys) has been widely studied, focusing on drivers of daily variation. Weather variables are widely believed to influence gobbling activity, but results across studies are contradictory and often equivocal, leading to uncertainty in the relative contribution of weather variables to daily fluctuations in gobbling activity. Previous works relied on road-based auditory surveys to collect gobbling data, which limits data consistency, duration, and quantity due to logistical difficulties associated with human observers and restricted sampling frames. Development of new methods using autonomous recording units (ARUs) allows researchers to collect continuous data in more locations for longer periods of time, providing the opportunity to delve into factors influencing daily gobbling activity. We used ARUs from 1 March to 31 May to detail gobbling activity across multiple study sites in the southeastern United States during 2014–2018. We used state-space modeling to investigate the effects of weather variables on daily gobbling activity. Our findings suggest rainfall, greater wind speeds, and greater temperatures negatively affected gobbling activity, whereas increasing barometric pressure positively affected gobbling activity. Therefore, when using daily gobbling activity to make inferences relative to gobbling chronology, reproductive phenology, and hunting season frameworks, stakeholders should recognize and consider the potential influences of extended periods of inclement weather.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

AIS-based characterization of navigation conflicts along the US Atlantic Coast prior to development of wind energy

This study characterizes navigation conflicts in a region with a large traffic volume along the US Atlantic Coast, utilizing Automated Identification System (AIS) data for 2010. The region includes areas proposed for wind energy development. The characterization could be useful in evaluating the effect of offshore wind areas on navigation conflicts. The study processes the AIS data to provide pairwise comparisons of vessel interactions (encounters and near-misses) as they occurred. Using the vessel encounter data, analyses are made using a ‘blind’ vessel assumption to evaluate the potential for both near-misses and collisions. Then statistical analyses are made to estimate the point values and uncertainty for each type of encounter (crossing, head-on, overtaking). Examination of the frequency/number of collisions from actual observations is made. The examination of actual near-misses, potential near-misses, and potential collisions provides comparable results in the number of near-misses and collisions. The potential near-miss analyses include an examination of the timing of responses made by vessels to prevent near-misses. This informed the statistical analysis but may also have utility in the simulation of navigation conflicts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗