SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory provides essential updates on workforce development initiatives and resources tailored for weatherization. This session offers insights into the latest efforts aimed at enhancing and expanding the weatherization workforce.
This brief highlight details the key takeaways from a project that utilized NLR's Fleet Research, Energy Data, and Insights (FleetREDI) data analysis pipeline related to electric school bus (ESB) operation. ESBs using battery energy as their primary heating source have a higher energy consumption rate in cold weather, which fleet managers can account for when planning ESB purchases and making dispatching and charging decisions. Researchers found that electric school buses operate 2-5 times more efficiently than conventional buses, on average. Cold weather can double electric school bus energy demands, but strategies such as thermal pre-conditioning significantly reduce this effect. Understanding these impacts can help fleets plan charging, dispatching, and purchase decisions.
Modern c-Si photovoltaic (PV) cells provide high performance but can be vulnerable to ultraviolet light induced degradation (UV-ID). Encapsulants, if chosen correctly, can mitigate UV-ID of the PV cell. Here, we explore performance and durability of 14 commercial encapsulant materials before, during, and after irradiation with UV-containing light. Materials include contemporary, polymer-based encapsulants with a base polymer of poly (ethylene co-vinyl acetate) (EVA), polyethylene-..alpha..-olefin (POE), or their composite (EPE). Polymers contain additives that induce UV-blocking, UV-transmitting, or UV-downshifting properties. We use test coupons to study degradation in a chamber held at 65 degrees C under a xenon light source for up to 4000 h of exposure, corresponding to a cumulative dose of 11.5 MJ/m2 at 340 nm. We examine optical properties including spectral transmittance, yellowness index and spectral fluorescence, considering changes to both the encapsulant and glass as a function of weathering time. Degradation modes identified include discoloration, changes to UV cutoff wavelength, changes to solar-weighted transmittance, and most notably a change to the UV-managing properties of some additives. We propose the use of solar-weighted transmittance in the 300- to 400-nm range to better track performance changes in the UV region associated with the UV-related additive. This is especially relevant for the emerging class of UV-downshifting additives, as metrics like UV-cutoff can understate the degree of degradation or change in these materials. While most encapsulants show very little change after weathering, some show significant changes that directly impact how much UV light would reach an underlying cell.
Extreme rainfall is one of the major causes of natural hazards in the central Himalayan region, including Nepal. The performance of strategies to manage hazards and related risks relies on the accuracy of quantitative hydrometeorological prediction. Rain gauges have traditionally been used to measure the rainfall amount. However, point measurements with limited gauge coverage cannot accurately represent spatial precipitation variability in complex topography. Weather radar have shown potential for useful information on accurate areal rainfall estimates. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Nepal installed their first weather radar in 2019 in the western region of the country. Two more radars will be added to the planned radar network in the near future, in the country's central and eastern regions, respectively. We highlight both the opportunities and challenges with radar installation and observation in the mountainous regions. Radar-rainfall estimates across the Himalayas can be useful to inform decision-making in a broad range of infrastructure sectors, including water, energy, construction, transportation, and agriculture.
Abstract Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.
Wind power is an environmentally sustainable technology that is likely to be part of the solution to the climate change, air pollution, and energy security problems. Despite many positive benefits, the rapid development of wind power has raised concerns about some potential adverse environmental impacts. While converting wind?s kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines (WTs) modify properties of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) including the vertical profiles and surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, moisture, and trace gases. Given the current installed capacity and the projected installation worldwide, wind farms (WFs) are likely becoming a major driver of manmade land use change on Earth. Hence, understanding WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and assessing potential environmental impacts of WFs are of significant scientific, societal and economic importance. Here we review our progress in assessing potential impacts of onshore wind power on weather, climate and vegetation activity. A consensus is emerging based on observations and modeling studies that WFs cause a local to regional warming effect, particularly at nighttime, while the impacts on precipitation, wind patterns, crop yields and vegetation activity are uncertain. The warming effect results simply from vertical heat redistribution within the ABL due to turbine-enhanced vertical turbulent mixing in the wakes. At the global scale, with a substantial installation of WFs, mesoscale and climate models predicted large regional changes but small global impacts on temperature, while the impacts on precipitation, clouds, wind patterns and large-scale circulation have large uncertainties and are region specific and scale dependent. Despite increasing number of research efforts, our assessment of potential WF impacts is still very limited. Although the WF impacts are mostly local and limited to the near-surface ABL, this is the layer where we live and plants grow. Hence, more studies are needed to improve our understanding of WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and our capability to model and project the weather, climatic and ecological impacts of large WFs.
The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.
There has been a limited amount of peer-reviewed literature on long-term trends in electricity reliability including the underlying factors that impact reliability across the United States. In this analysis, we considered up to 16 years of data from 203 U S. utilities—representing about 70% of electricity sales. Annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer—at the regional and U.S. national-level—has generally decreased over this timeframe. But we do not find that there is a statistically significant trend in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer. We find that more explicit measures of severe weather are correlated with reliability. We are able to explain 7% and 16% of past variation in the reliability metrics system average interruption duration and frequency indices, respectively, is due to severe weather—a significant improvement over earlier studies. We find that current year spending by utilities is correlated with worse reliability and that cumulative spending over the preceding three years is correlated with better reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that using a statistical instrument to represent the annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer can greatly improve analysis of trends in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer.
Improving distribution system resilience against frequent extreme weather events is important for reliable power system operations. Especially when dealing with events such as hurricanes that have short-term predictions, proactive pre-event preparedness plays a vital role in system resilience performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to construct pre-event resource allocation plans for system operators to cope with upcoming threats through a sequential attacker-defender game framework. The sequential attacker-defender game is designed to model the interaction between the extreme weather and the system operator. In each round of the game, the attacker and the defender sequentially update their current strategies by accounting for the opponent’s action set. The attacker model is formulated as a bi-level problem to identify the severe outage scenarios, and the defender model is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem to determine the allocation of restoration resources including mobile responsive resources and repair crews. Two scale-reduction strategies are proposed to ensure the scalability of the game scheme. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus and a 7149-node practical utility system validate the effectiveness of the proposed sequential game and the efficiency of the scale-reduction strategies.
Sanyo/Panasonic patented silicon heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) solar cells in the 1990's, which demonstrated world record photovoltaic (PV) efficiency around 2014 and inspired the newer generations of silicon heterojunction technology (SHJ) as well as the current world record back-contact PV cell designs. The high-quality passivation strategy, utilizing ultra-thin layers of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H), leads to high voltages and long carrier lifetimes, but these qualities may degrade over time as the modules operate outdoors. Here, we investigate local microstructure and composition at the interface layers of cells from HIT modules weathered in a hot, humid climate (Florida, USA) and temperate climate (Colorado, USA) for 10 years. We employ a comprehensive set of high-resolution electron microscopy imaging and spectroscopy to directly resolve structure and composition in these cells down to the nanoscale. We show features such as alignment of the In2O3 transparent conducting oxide and a-Si:H layers on the textured c-Si facets, interfacial oxidation at the a-Si:H/c-Si and In2O3/a-Si:H interfaces, and twinned c-Si resulting from epitaxial growth into the a-Si:H layer. Our results raise potential degradation mechanisms in these outdoor-weathered modules, but the root cause of electrical loss remains uncertain due to the very small changes in aged samples. This study shows that many atomic scale features at the In2O3/a-Si:H/c-Si interfaces are surprisingly robust, and the electrical losses with aging may either be attributed to other pathways or be very sensitive to the subtle chemical and microstructural features observed here.
Atmospheric ice formation influences Earth’s global hydrological cycle and is widely studied. In contrast, the intricacies of freeze-thaw processes in natural soils, such as whether ice nucleation on mineral surfaces is affected by biological activity, needs additional insight. In-situ ice formation on unreacted grains and grains exposed to field and laboratory weathering conditions was studied at the submicron scale using an ice nucleation chamber interfaced with an environmental scanning electron microscope. We found that ice nucleation activity differed by treatment. Unreacted grains and fungal-mineral interfaces displayed ice formation along edges and fractures. Conversely, grains with mineral coatings, seemingly from biological activity, exhibited water uptake and ice nucleation on the coatings themselves. Our results suggest that in natural soils, mineral coatings can influence where and how ice forms. This ultimately affects weathering and nutrient release to the biosphere, with direct consequences for interactions between the atmosphere and geosphere.
Extreme precipitation events, including those associated with weather fronts, have wide-ranging impacts across the world. Here we use a deep learning algorithm to identify weather fronts in high resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and evaluate the results using observational and reanalysis products. We further compare results between CESM simulations using present-day and future climate forcing, to study how these features might change with climate change. We find that detected front frequencies in CESM have seasonally varying spatial patterns and responses to climate change and are found to be associated with modeled changes in large scale circulation such as the jet stream. We also associate the detected fronts with precipitation and find that total and extreme frontal precipitation mostly decreases with climate change, with some seasonal and regional differences. Here, decreases in Northern Hemisphere summer frontal precipitation are largely driven by changes in the frequency of different front types, especially cold and stationary fronts. On the other hand, Northern Hemisphere winter exhibits some regional increases in frontal precipitation that are largely driven by changes in frontal precipitation intensity. While CONUS mean and extreme precipitation generally increase during all seasons in these climate change simulations, the likelihood of frontal extreme precipitation decreases, demonstrating that extreme precipitation has seasonally varying sources and mechanisms that will continue to evolve with climate change.
As space weather has significantly matured as a field, the Space Weather journal is implementing two major changes: a new scope and a new Editor-in-Chief (EiC). As part of the revised scope, the novelty of submitted manuscripts is now a major quality to be assessed by the editors and reviewers. The goal of the journal remains primarily to advance our understanding of fundamental space phenomena that have direct impact on technology, to improve the forecasting of such phenomena, and to provide space environment climatology models. This new scope is the last major change implemented by the departing EiC who will be succeeded in January 2026 by Dr. Steven K. Morley. The new EiC will now oversee a large editorial board and a journal with over 400 submissions in 2025.
Ocean weather comprises vortical and straining mesoscale motions, which play fundamentally different roles in the ocean circulation and climate system. Vorticity determines the movement of major ocean currents and gyres. Strain contributes to frontogenesis and the deformation of water masses, driving much of the mixing and vertical transport in the upper ocean. While recent studies have shown that interactions with the atmosphere damp the ocean’s mesoscale vortices O(100) km in size, the effect of winds on straining motions remains unexplored. Here, we derive a theory for wind work on the ocean’s vorticity and strain. Using satellite and model data, we discover that wind damps strain and vorticity at an equal rate globally, and unveil striking asymmetries based on their polarity. Subtropical winds damp oceanic cyclones and energize anticyclones outside strong current regions, while subpolar winds have the opposite effect. A similar pattern emerges for oceanic strain, where subtropical convergent flow is damped along the west-equatorward east-poleward direction and energized along the east-equatorward west-poleward direction. These findings reveal energy pathways through which the atmosphere shapes ocean weather.
Abstract There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In this study, we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a universal two-stage procedure approach. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 40% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power of WRs generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales.
We present scalable stochastic optimization approaches for improving power systems’ resilience to extreme weather events. We consider both proactive redispatch and transmission line hardening as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather, resulting in large-scale stochastic linear programs (LPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). We solve these stochastic optimization problems with progressive hedging (PH), a parallel, scenario-based decomposition algorithm. Our computational experiments indicate that our proposed method for enhancing power system resilience can provide high-quality solutions efficiently. With up to 128 scenarios on a 2,000-bus network, the operations (redispatch) and investment (hardening) resilience problems can be solved in approximately 6 min and 2 h of wall-clock time, respectively. Additionally, we solve the investment problems with up to 512 scenarios, demonstrating that the approach scales very well with the number of scenarios. Moreover, the method produces high quality solutions that result in statistically significant reductions in expected load shed. Our proposed approach can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or a combination of such strategies.
Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States. Wildfire impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we use unique modeling developments to explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on precipitation and hail in the central US. We find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By enhancing surface high pressure and increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western United States produce ( 1 ) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central United States and ( 2 ) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central United States. Both the meteorological environment more conducive to severe convective storms and increased aerosols contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. Moreover, the local wildfires in the central US also enhance the severity of storms, but their impact is notably smaller than the impact of remote wildfires in California and Oregon because of the lessened severity of the local wildfires. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important.
Abstract Limiting anthropogenic global climate warming since the start of the industrial period to less than 2 °C will very likely require both deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and a range of approaches toward carbon dioxide removal (CDR). One prominent CDR approach is enhanced weathering (EW), in which crushed silicate rock is applied on land or in the open ocean to accelerate natural weathering processes that absorb carbon dioxide from Earth’s ocean–atmosphere system. However, in addition to a range of potential environmental, socioeconomic, and ethical issues associated with this pathway, bottlenecks in feedstock sourcing represent a key barrier for deployment of EW at scale. Here, we evaluate the potential of silicate wastes produced from industrial processes—such as steel slag and cement waste—as feedstocks for the EW process. An empirical model that links industrial alkaline waste production to gross domestic product at purchase power parity is developed to forecast waste production in the alternative futures described by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) framework. By incorporating these results into an intermediate-complexity Earth system model, we also explore the impacts of EW using industrial waste on changes to global temperature, ocean pH, and ocean aragonite saturation state, while also quantifying overall CDR efficiency through the end of the century. We estimate a maximum cumulative end-of-century capture potential of ∼400 GtCO 2 for industrial waste, which could represent a significant fraction of the projected CDR requirement of many mitigation scenarios in the SSP framework. However, feedstock-dependent environmental impacts and the technoeconomics of feedstock redistribution may ultimately limit deployment scope.