Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Variables in turbine erosion

Study of impact erosion in the operation of turbomachinery is undertaken to predict the results for particular designs. The test program investigates the effects of turbine stator blade shape, rotor blade shape, and variations in test conditions.

Baughman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Terminal - Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSafe)

The Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (TSAFE) has been previously tested as a conflict detection and resolution tool in the en-route phase of flight. Fast time simulations of a terminal version of this tool called Terminal TSAFE (T-TSAFE) have shown promise over the current conflict detection tools. It has shown to have fewer false alerts (as low as 2 per hour) and better prediction to conflict time than Conflict Alert. The tool will be tested in the simulated terminal area of Los Angeles International Airport, in a Human-in-the-loop experiment to identify controller procedures and information requirements. The simulation will include comparisons of T-TSAFE with NASA's version of Conflict Alert. Also, some other variables such as altitude entry by the controller, which improve T-TSAFE's predictions for conflict detection, will be tested. T-TSAFE integrates features of current conflict detection tools such as Automated Terminal Proximity Alert used to alleviate compression errors in the final approach phase. Based on fast-time simulation analysis, the anticipated benefits of T-TSAFE over Conflict Alert include reduced false/missed alerts and increased time to predicted loss of separation. Other metrics that will be used to evaluate the tool's impact on the controller include controller intervention, workload, and situation awareness.

Verma, Savita Arora↗
NASA NTRS1992

Rotary engine performance limits predicted by a zero-dimensional model

A parametric study was performed to determine the performance limits of a rotary combustion engine. This study shows how well increasing the combustion rate, insulating, and turbocharging increase brake power and decrease fuel consumption. Several generalizations can be made from the findings. First, it was shown that the fastest combustion rate is not necessarily the best combustion rate. Second, several engine insulation schemes were employed for a turbocharged engine. Performance improved only for a highly insulated engine. Finally, the variability of turbocompounding and the influence of exhaust port shape were calculated. Rotary engines performance was predicted by an improved zero-dimensional computer model based on a model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1980's. Independent variables in the study include turbocharging, manifold pressures, wall thermal properties, leakage area, and exhaust port geometry. Additions to the computer programs since its results were last published include turbocharging, manifold modeling, and improved friction power loss calculation. The baseline engine for this study is a single rotor 650 cc direct-injection stratified-charge engine with aluminum housings and a stainless steel rotor. Engine maps are provided for the baseline and turbocharged versions of the engine.

Bartrand, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A mechanics framework for a progressive failure methodology for laminated composites

A laminate strength and life prediction methodology has been postulated for laminated composites which accounts for the progressive development of microstructural damage to structural failure. A damage dependent constitutive model predicts the stress redistribution in an average sense that accompanies damage development in laminates. Each mode of microstructural damage is represented by a second-order tensor valued internal state variable which is a strain like quantity. The mechanics framework together with the global-local strategy for predicting laminate strength and life is presented in the paper. The kinematic effects of damage are represented by effective engineering moduli in the global analysis and the results of the global analysis provide the boundary conditions for the local ply level stress analysis. Damage evolution laws are based on experimental results.

Harris, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Intriguing Convex Break in the EGRET SED of Mrk 421

Based upon analysis of the entire EGRET data from Mrk 421, it is found that the time-averaged spectra are inconsistent with the predictions of current theoretical models that have had success in describing simultaneous X-ray/TeV observations, and suggest additional components in the GeV band, as well as complex time variability. Current theoretical pictures explain the GeV emission as comptonization of the synchrotron photons in the jet, and predict hard spectra that should join smoothly with the TeV emission. Our analysis shows that the situation is more complex. The spectrum ranges from hard to soft during individual epochs, and shows a convext break in the aggregated data. We also present the mission-averaged EGRET spectrum for PKS 2155-304, which shows a similar (but not as pronounced) convex curvature. We discuss a series of possible explanations for the 10(exp 22) - 10(exp 23) HZ declining part of the EGRET nu F(sub nu), spectrum for Mrk 421, and suggest that it is synchrotron emission from the high energy tail of the electron population that produces the X-rays during the highest X-ray states. Such multi-MeV photons are produced by electrons accelerated close to the limit of diffusive shock acceleration. Simultaneous GLAST and X-ray observations of high X-ray states will address the issue of the convex curvature in the future.

Nandikotkur, Giridhar↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Kehrer, Kristen↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thresholds in Atmosphere-Soil Moisture Interactions: Results from Climate Model Studies

The potential predictability of the effects of warm season soil moisture anomalies over the central U.S. has been investigated using a series of GCM (Global Climate Model) experiments with the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) CCM3 (Community Climate Model version 3)/LSM (Land Surface Model). Three different types of experiments have been made, all starting in either March (representing precursor conditions) or June (conditions at the onset of the warm season): (1) 'anomaly' runs with large, exaggerated initial soil moisture reductions, aimed at evaluating the physical mechanisms by which soil moisture can affect the atmosphere; (2) 'predictability' runs aimed at evaluating whether typical soil moisture initial anomalies (indicative of year-to-year variability) can have a significant effect, and if so, for how long; (3) 'threshold' runs aimed at evaluating if a soil moisture anomaly must be of a specific size (i.e., a threshold crossed) before a significant impact on the atmosphere is seen. The 'anomaly' runs show a large, long-lasting response in soil moisture and also quantities such as surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation; effects persist for at least a year. The 'predictability' runs, on the other hand, show very little impact of the initial soil moisture anomalies on the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and other atmospheric parameters; internal variability is most important, with the initial state of the atmosphere (representing remote effects such as SST anomalies) playing a more minor role. The 'threshold' runs, devised to help resolve the dichotomy in 'anomaly' and 'predictability' results, suggest that, at least in CCM3/LSM, the vertical profile of soil moisture is the most important factor, and that deep soil zone anomalies exert a more powerful, long-lasting effect than do anomalies in the near surface soil zone. We therefore suggest that soil moisture feedbacks may be more important in explaining prolonged decadal to century-long droughts evident in the historic and recent prehistoric records, but less important on a seasonal to interannual time-scale.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Obtaining Reliable Predictions of Terrestrial Energy Coupling From Real-Time Solar Wind Measurement

The first draft of a manuscript titled "Variable time delays in the propagation of the interplanetary magnetic field" has been completed, for submission to the Journal of Geophysical Research. In the preparation of this manuscript all data and analysis programs had been updated to the highest temporal resolution possible, at 16 seconds or better. The program which computes the "measured" IMF propagation time delays from these data has also undergone another improvement. In another significant development, a technique has been developed in order to predict IMF phase plane orientations, and the resulting time delays, using only measurements from a single satellite at L1. The "minimum variance" method is used for this computation. Further work will be done on optimizing the choice of several parameters for the minimum variance calculation.

Weimer, Daniel R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Sombrero: An Edge-On Spiral: Halo Dynamics, A Massive Dark Object, and XRBS

We present an analysis of the XMM-Newton and Chandra ACIS-S observations of the LINER nucleus of the Sombrero galaxy, and we discuss possible explanations for its very Sub-Eddington luminosity by complementing the X-ray results with high angular resolution observations in other bands. The X-ray investigation shows a hard (gamma=1.89) and moderately absorbed (NH=1.8x1021 per square centimeter) nuclear source of 1.5x1040 ergs per second in the 2-10 keV band, surrounded by hot gas at a temperature of approximately 0.6 keV. The bolometric nuclear luminosity is at least approximately 200 times lower than expected if mass accreted on the supermassive black hole, which Hubble Space Telescope shows to reside at the center of this galaxy, at the rate predicted by the spherical and adiabatic Bondi accretion theory and with the high radiative efficiency of a standard accretion disk. The low luminosity, coupled to the observed absence of Fe K emission in the nuclear spectrum, indicates that such a disk is not present. This nucleus also differs from bright unobscured active galactic nuclei in the lack of high flux variability and prominent broad H emission. However, it is also too faint for the predictions of simple radiatively inefficient accretion taking place at the Bondi rate; it could instead be too radio bright for radiatively inefficient accretion that includes strong mass outflows or convection. This discrepancy could be solved by the possible presence of nuclear radio jets. An alternative explanation of the low luminosity, in place of radiative inefficiency, could be unsteady accretion.

Fabbiano, G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Two-dimensional CFD modeling of wave rotor flow dynamics

A two-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver developed for detailed study of wave rotor flow dynamics is described. The CFD model is helping characterize important loss mechanisms within the wave rotor. The wave rotor stationary ports and the moving rotor passages are resolved on multiple computational grid blocks. The finite-volume form of the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations with laminar viscosity are integrated in time using a four-stage Runge-Kutta scheme. The Roe approximate Riemann solution scheme or the computationally less expensive Advection Upstream Splitting Method (AUSM) flux-splitting scheme are used to effect upwind-differencing of the inviscid flux terms, using cell interface primitive variables set by MUSCL-type interpolation. The diffusion terms are central-differenced. The solver is validated using a steady shock/laminar boundary layer interaction problem and an unsteady, inviscid wave rotor passage gradual opening problem. A model inlet port/passage charging problem is simulated and key features of the unsteady wave rotor flow field are identified. Lastly, the medium pressure inlet port and high pressure outlet port portion of the NASA Lewis Research Center experimental divider cycle is simulated and computed results are compared with experimental measurements. The model accurately predicts the wave timing within the rotor passage and the distribution of flow variables in the stationary inlet port region.

Welch, Gerard E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Two-dimensional CFD modeling of wave rotor flow dynamics

A two-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver developed for detailed study of wave rotor flow dynamics is described. The CFD model is helping characterize important loss mechanisms within the wave rotor. The wave rotor stationary ports and the moving rotor passages are resolved on multiple computational grid blocks. The finite-volume form of the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations with laminar viscosity are integrated in time using a four-stage Runge-Kutta scheme. Roe's approximate Riemann solution scheme or the computationally less expensive advection upstream splitting method (AUSM) flux-splitting scheme is used to effect upwind-differencing of the inviscid flux terms, using cell interface primitive variables set by MUSCL-type interpolation. The diffusion terms are central-differenced. The solver is validated using a steady shock/laminar boundary layer interaction problem and an unsteady, inviscid wave rotor passage gradual opening problem. A model inlet port/passage charging problem is simulated and key features of the unsteady wave rotor flow field are identified. Lastly, the medium pressure inlet port and high pressure outlet port portion of the NASA Lewis Research Center experimental divider cycle is simulated and computed results are compared with experimental measurements. The model accurately predicts the wave timing within the rotor passages and the distribution of flow variables in the stationary inlet port region.

Welch, Gerard E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evolutionary Design of Controlled Structures

Basic physical concepts of structural delay and transmissibility are provided for simple rod and beam structures. Investigations show the sensitivity of these concepts to differing controlled-structures variables, and to rational system modeling effects. An evolutionary controls/structures design method is developed. The basis of the method is an accurate model formulation for dynamic compensator optimization and Genetic Algorithm based updating of sensor/actuator placement and structural attributes. One and three dimensional examples from the literature are used to validate the method. Frequency domain interpretation of these controlled structure systems provide physical insight as to how the objective is optimized and consequently what is important in the objective. Several disturbance rejection type controls-structures systems are optimized for a stellar interferometer spacecraft application. The interferometric designs include closed loop tracking optics. Designs are generated for differing structural aspect ratios, differing disturbance attributes, and differing sensor selections. Physical limitations in achieving performance are given in terms of average system transfer function gains and system phase loss. A spacecraft-like optical interferometry system is investigated experimentally over several different optimized controlled structures configurations. Configurations represent common and not-so-common approaches to mitigating pathlength errors induced by disturbances of two different spectra. Results show that an optimized controlled structure for low frequency broadband disturbances achieves modest performance gains over a mass equivalent regular structure, while an optimized structure for high frequency narrow band disturbances is four times better in terms of root-mean-square pathlength. These results are predictable given the nature of the physical system and the optimization design variables. Fundamental limits on controlled performance are discussed based on the measured and fit average system transfer function gains and system phase loss.

Masters, Brett P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Space motion sickness

Space motion sickness clinical characteristics, time course, prediction of susceptibility, and effectiveness of countermeasures were evaluated. Although there is wide individual variability, there appear to be typical patterns of symptom development. The duration of symptoms ranges from several hours to four days with the majority of individuals being symptom free by the end of third day. The etiology of this malady remains uncertain but evidence points to reinterpretation of otolith inputs as being a key factor in the response of the neurovestibular system. Prediction of susceptibility and severity remains unsatisfactory. Countermeasures tried include medications, preflight adaptation, and autogenic feedback training. No countermeasure is entirely successful in eliminating or alleviating symptoms.

Vanderploeg, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

TPSAS-NF1676L-13638-DND

Dry weights for single-stage launch vehicles that incorporate nontangent, developed contour bulkheads are estimated and compared to a baseline vehicle with 1.414 aspect ratio ellipsoidal bulkheads. Weights, volumes, and heights of optimized bulkhead designs are computed using a preliminary design bulkhead analysis code. The dry weights of vehicles that incorporate the optimized bulkheads are predicted using a vehicle weights and sizing code. Two optimization approaches are employed. A structural-level method, where the vehicle's three major bulkhead regions are optimized separately and then incorporated into a model for computation of the vehicle dry weight, predicts a reduction of 4365 Ib (2.2%) from the 200,679-lb baseline vehicle dry weight. In the second, vehicle-level, approach, the vehicle dry weight is the objective function for the optimization. For the vehicle-level analysis, modified bulkhead designs are analyzed and incorporated into the weights model for computation of a dry weight. The optimizer simultaneously manipulates design variables for all three bulkheads to reduce the dry weight. The vehicle- level analysis predicts a dry weight reduction of 5129 Ib, a 2.6% reduction from the baseline weight. Based on these results, nontangent, developed contour bulkheads may provide substantial weight savings for single stage vehicles.

K Chauncey Wu↗
NASA NTRS1997

Dynamic analysis of heart rate may predict subsequent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction

Dynamics analysis of RR interval behavior and traditional measures of heart rate variability were compared between postinfarction patients with and without vulnerability to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a case-control study. Short-term fractal correlation of heart rate dynamics was better than traditional measures of heart rate variability in differentiating patients with and without life-threatening arrhythmias.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2003

Active Control of Interface Shape During the Crystal Growth of Lead Bromide

A thermal model for predicting and designing the furnace temperature profile was developed and used for the crystal growth of lead bromide. The model gives the ampoule temperature as a function of the furnace temperature, thermal conductivity, heat transfer coefficients, and ampoule dimensions as variable parameters. Crystal interface curvature was derived from the model and it was compared with the predicted curvature for a particular furnace temperature and growth parameters. Large crystals of lead bromide were grown and it was observed that interface shape was in agreement with the shape predicted by this model.

Duval, W. M. B.↗