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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Non-destructive simulation of node defects in additively manufactured lattice structures

Additive Manufacturing (AM), commonly referred to as 3D printing, offers the ability to not only fabricate geometrically complex lattice structures but parts in which lattice topologies in-fill volumes bounded by complex surface geometries. However, current AM processes produce defects on the strut and node elements which make up the lattice structure. This creates an inherent difference between the as-designed and as-fabricated geometries, which negatively affects predictions (via numerical simulation) of the lattice’s mechanical performance. Although experimental and numerical analysis of an AM lattice’s bulk structure, unit cell and struts have been performed, there exists almost no research data on the mechanical response of the individual as-manufactured lattice node elements. Here we propose a methodology that, for the first time, allows non-destructive quantification of the mechanical response of node elements within an as-manufactured lattice structure. A custom-developed tool is used to extract and classify each individual node geometry from micro-computed tomography scans of an AM fabricated lattice. Voxel-based finite element meshes are generated for numerical simulation and the mechanical response distribution is compared to that of the idealised computer-aided design model. The method demonstrates compatibility with Uncertainty Quantification methods that provide opportunities for efficient prediction of a population of nodal responses from sampled data. Overall, the non-destructive and automated nature of the node extraction and response evaluation is promising for its application in qualification and certification of additively manufactured lattice structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility Activities: FY2020 Progress

This report describes the credibility activities undertaken in support of Gemma code development in FY20, which include Verification & Validation (V&V), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Credibility process application. The main goal of these activities is to establish capabilities and process frameworks that can be more broadly applied to new and more advanced problems as the Gemma code development effort matures. This will provide Gemma developers and analysts with the tools needed to generate credibility evidence in support of Gemma predictions for future use cases. The FY20 Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility activities described in this report include experimental uncertainty analysis, the development and use of methods for optimal design of computer experiments, and the development of a framework for validation. These initial activities supported the development of broader credibility planning for Gemma that continued into FY21.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Open-Source Python Package for CFD Solution Verification

Informed decision-making using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results requires quantifying the errors and uncertainties of a simulation. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) methods were developed to address this need and have matured. However, these VVUQ analyses are often non-trivial and require CFD analysts and practitioners to have specific skill sets. This has led to the uneven adoption of VVUQ analyses, in part, based on the availability of software tools to aid CFD analysts and practitioners. Solution verification, a procedure to evaluate the accuracy of a simulation by estimating potential errors arising from the computational model and computing the uncertainties without comparing to results from a physical system, is one of the lagging VVUQ analyses as the absence of software has forced CFD analysts and practitioners to develop their own codes or piece together incomplete software from across the internet. This work presents an opensource Python package, CFDverify, to lower the barrier of entry and fill in the technological gap in solution verification. CFDverify also provides a streamlined framework to remove some potential errors in post-processing CFD results. The hope is that CFDverify can improve the quality and quantity of CFD solution verification in scientific and research studies and attract interest in developing a communal tool. This paper describes the design, features, and an example use of CFDverify.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗
DOE OSTI2022

Need for advanced research reactors for the next-generation reactor physics, analysis tools, and technology

Full text of publication follows. There is an urgent need for design and deployment of advanced research and test reactors in support of design, licensing and operation of advanced power reactors and education of next generation nuclear workforce. Existing research reactors mostly were designed and constructed decades ago with the main objectives of training operators, performing reactor physics experiments, and educating nuclear engineers and scientists. There are already gaps and significant concern about future capabilities for the existing research reactor facilities to address modern instrumentation and/or flexible environments for: performing reactor physics studies for advanced designs which have significantly different core materials forms and compositions, reactor shapes and size; validation of advanced high-fidelity software; development of machine learning algorithms for enhancement of human-machine collaboration in support of reactor monitoring, operation and safeguards; and, effective education of the next-generation workforce. The authors will focus on the need for advanced research reactors to improve and validate fast and accurate simulation tools for high-fidelity modeling and analysis of nuclear reactors in support of their design, optimization, licensing, operation, and monitoring. In the past, simulation tools were limited to relatively coarse models using approximate methodologies that benefited from two main factors: i) allowance for large margins and tolerances; ii) ability to construct prototype (e.g., zero power) reactors for adjustment of approximate methodologies. The next generation reactors have to be designed mainly by using novel high-fidelity computational tools that are accurate and fast, and therefore can be used for parametric studies and uncertainty quantification. To sufficiently demonstrate the accuracy of these tools, advanced research reactors are needed. The authors argue the need for new computational paradigms such as the MRT (Multistage, Response- function Transport) methodology which has resulted in the development of the novel high-fidelity RAPID (Real-time Analysis for Particle-transport and In-situ Detection) code system. Such code systems have to be robust in modeling any complex system, and should be fast and accurate, henceforth their uncertainties can be quantified at reasonable costs. Again, advanced research reactors are needed for the validation of the fidelity and accuracy of new computational tools. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) in 252 Cf(sf) neutron field and its impact on the evaluation of neutron standards

A new evaluation of spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu measured in the 252 Cf(sf) reference neutron field is presented and found to be consistent with the original Mannhart SACS evaluation in IRDF-2002. The comprehensive vetted experimental database that includes SACS ratio and absolute SACS measurements of major actinides is being used to update the SACS database employed as input of the new GMApy code to derive the Neutron Standards. An update of the current neutron standards based on Time Projection Chamber (TPC) shape data, a new comprehensive uncertainty quantification, and revised SACS experimental database is proposed which result in a 0.7% increase of the evaluated 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) crosssection ratio in the 1–5 MeV energy region. The increase is due to a 0.3% reduction of the standard 235 U(n,f) cross section and a 0.4% increase of the 239 Pu(n,f) reference cross section in the 1–5 MeV energy region. Those changes are well within estimated USU fission cross-section uncertainties of 1.2%, but are relevant for the evaluated mean values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-learning-enabled Bayesian inference of fuel magnetization in magnetized liner inertial fusion

Fuel magnetization in magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) experiments improves charged burn product confinement, reducing requirements on fuel areal density and pressure to achieve self-heating. By elongating the path length of 1.01 MeV tritons produced in a pure deuterium fusion plasma, magnetization enhances the probability for deuterium–tritium reactions producing 11.8-17.1 MeV neutrons. Nuclear diagnostics thus enable a sensitive probe of magnetization. Characterization of magnetization, including uncertainty quantification, is crucial for understanding the physics governing target performance in MIF platforms, such as magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at Sandia National Laboratories, Z-facility. We demonstrate a deep-learned surrogate of a physics-based model of nuclear measurements. A single model evaluation is reduced from O ( 10 – 100 ) (10–100) CPU hours on a high-performance computing cluster down to O ( 10 – 100 ) (10) ms on a laptop. This enables a Bayesian inference of magnetization, rigorously accounting for uncertainties from surrogate modeling and noisy nuclear measurements. The approach is validated by testing on synthetic data and comparing with a previous study. We analyze a series of MagLIF experiments systematically varying preheat, resulting in the first ever systematic experimental study of magnetic confinement properties of the fuel plasma as a function of fundamental inputs on any neutron-producing MIF platform. We demonstrate that magnetization decreases from B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.5 to B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.2 MG cm as laser preheat energy deposited increases from E preheat ∼ 460 ~460 J to E preheat ∼ 460 ~1.4 kJ. This trend is consistent with 2D LASNEX simulations showing Nernst advection of the magnetic field out of the hot fuel and diffusion into the target liner.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Experiments to Optimal Cross-Section Adjustments

This paper presents the first application of model calibration to neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments for cross-section optimization that is informed by adjoint-based sensitivity analysis (SA) and first-order uncertainty quantification (UQ). We summarize previous work on SA applied to NMC and describe notable modifications and additions. We give the procedure for first-order UQ and Bayesian-inference-based parameter estimation (PE). We then discuss model calibration applied to NMC of a 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium metal (the BeRP ball) with the nPod neutron multiplicity counter. For the BeRP ball in bare and polyethylene-reflected configurations, we discuss the sensitivity of the first- and second-moment detector responses (i.e., first and second moments of the NMC distribution, respectively) to the cross sections. We describe the sources of uncertainty in the measured and simulated responses. Specifically, uncertainty in the measured responses is due to both random and systematic sources. Uncertainty in the simulated responses is due to the cross-section covariances. We describe in detail the adjustment to the cross sections and cross-section covariances due to the optimization. Due to the contribution of systematic uncertainties to the measured response uncertainties, the adjustment to the cross sections is similar in trend but larger in magnitude compared to that recommended by previous work. We compare the measured responses to responses simulated with nominal and optimized cross sections, demonstrating that the best-estimate cross sections produce simulations of NMC experiments that are more accurate with reduced uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chiral uncertainties in ab initio elastic nucleon-nucleus scattering

The effective interaction between a nucleon and a nucleus is one of the most important ingredients for reaction theories. Theoretical formulations were introduced early by Feshbach and Watson, and efforts of deriving and computing those ‘optical potentials’ in a microscopic fashion have a long tradition. However, only recently the leading order term in the Watson multiple scattering approach could be calculated fully ab initio, meaning that the same nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction enters both the structure as well as the reaction pieces on equal footing. This allows the uncertainties from the underlying chiral effective NN interaction to be systematically explored in nucleon-nucleus elastic scattering observables. In this contribution the main ingredients for arriving at the ab initio leading order of the effective nucleon-nucleus interaction in the Watson approach will be reviewed. Concentrating on one specific chiral NN interaction from the LENPIC collaboration and light nuclei with a 0 + ground state, the leading order nucleon-nucleus interaction is calculated using up to the third chiral order (N2LO) in the nucleon-nucleon potential, and elastic scattering observables are extracted. Then pointwise as well as correlated uncertainty quantification is used for the estimation of the chiral truncation error. Elastic scattering observables for 4 He, 12 C, and 16 O for between 65 and 200 MeV projectile energy will be analyzed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗