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Results for “uncertainty Quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dynamics and Control of Quadcopter in Uncertain Environment

We consider problem of dynamics, control, and uncertainty quantification for quadcopter. We use the 6DOF model of quadcopter dynamics, linear quadratic regulator and linear quadratic Gaussian control of quadcopter in the presence of dynamical disturbances, measurement noise, hidden dynamical variables, dashing GPS signal, and wind gusts to predict quadcopter trajectory. We identify key sources of uncertainties and report on progress in development of a system that estimates the probability of safety-critical events using a set of algorithms based on the trajectory predictions.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.

The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

FY22 NCSP accomplishments for U and Pu Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation covers fiscal year 2022 for Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) accomplishments for Uranium (U) and Plutonium (Pu) evaluations. This presentation includes an overview on plutonium and uranium. Additionally, this presentation covers the inclusion of sub-thermal data for 235 U and the inclusion of LANL ratio capture-to-fission data for 233 U and 235 Pu. The presentation ends with a discussion on 239 Pu Primary fit of Mosby's data as reported and a look at the uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards precise and accurate calculations of neutrinoless double-beta decay

We present the results of a National Science Foundation Project Scoping Workshop, the purpose of which was to assess the current status of calculations for the nuclear matrix elements governing neutrinoless double-beta decay and determine if more work on them is required. After reviewing important recent progress in the application of effective field theory, lattice quantum chromodynamics, and ab initio nuclear-structure theory to double-beta decay, we discuss the state of the art in nuclear-physics uncertainty quantification and then construct a roadmap for work in all these areas to fully complement the increasingly sensitive experiments in operation and under development. The roadmap includes specific projects in theoretical and computational physics as well as the use of Bayesian methods to quantify both intra- and inter-model uncertainties. Here, the goal of this ambitious program is a set of accurate and precise matrix elements, in all nuclei of interest to experimentalists, delivered together with carefully assessed uncertainties. Such calculations will allow crisp conclusions from the observation or non-observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay, no matter what new physics is at play.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. The research here compares two different turbulence models for the simulations. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the using both the Spalart and Allamaras and Menter Shear-Stress Transport turbulence models overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted in up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura M. White↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the turbulence simulation overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura White↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware and Explainable Human Error Detection in the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

The timely and accurate identification of incidents, such as human factor error, is important to restore nuclear power plants (NPPs) to a stable state. However, the identification of abnormal operating conditions is difficult because of the existence of multiple scenarios. In addition, to implement mitigation actions rapidly after an incident occurs, operators must accurately identify an incident by monitoring the trends of many variables. The mental burden posed by this can increase human error and cause failure in identifying incidents. Failure to identify incidents directly results in erroneous mitigation measures, which are detrimental to NPPs. In this study, we leverage uncertainty-aware models to identify such errors and thereby increase the chances of mitigating them. We use the data collected from a physical test bed. The goal is to identify both certain and accurate models. For this, the two main aspects of focus in this study are explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and uncertainty quantification (UQ). While XAI elucidates the decision pathway, UQ evaluates decision reliability. Their integration paints a comprehensive picture, signifying that understanding decisions and their confidence should be interlinked. Thus, in this study we leverage UQ measures (e.g. entropy and mutual information) along with Shapley additive explanations to gain insights into the features contributing to both accuracy and uncertainty in error identification. Furthermore, our results show that uncertainty-aware models combined with XAI tools can explain the artificial intelligence–prescribed decisions, with the potential of better explaining errors for the operators.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

We Know Where We Don't Know: 3D Bayesian CNNs for Credible Geometric Uncertainty

Deep learning has been successfully applied to the segmentation of 3D Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify untrustworthy predictions. Recent UQ architectures include Monte Carlo dropout networks (MCDNs), which approximate deep Gaussian processes, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), which learn the distribution of the weight space. BNNs are advantageous over MCDNs for UQ but are thought to be computationally infeasible in high dimension, and neither architecture has produced interpretable geometric uncertainty maps. We propose a novel 3D Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN), the first deep learning method which generates statistically credible geometric uncertainty maps and scales for application to 3D data. We present experimental results on CT scans of graphite electrodes and laser-welded metals and show that our BCNN outperforms an MCDN in recent uncertainty metrics. The geometric uncertainty maps generated by our BCNN capture distributions of sigmoid values that are interpretable as confidence intervals, critical for applications that rely on deep learning for high-consequence decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Generation of Microkinetics for Heterogeneously Catalyzed Reactions Considering Correlated Uncertainties**

Abstract The study presents an ab‐initio based framework for the automated construction of microkinetic mechanisms considering correlated uncertainties in all energetic parameters and estimation routines. 2000 unique microkinetic models were generated within the uncertainty space of the BEEF‐vdW functional for the oxidation reactions of representative exhaust gas emissions from stoichiometric combustion engines over Pt(111) and compared to experiments through multiscale modeling. The ensemble of simulations stresses the importance of considering uncertainties. Within this set of first‐principles‐based models, it is possible to identify a microkinetic mechanism that agrees with experimental data. This mechanism can be traced back to a single exchange‐correlation functional, and it suggests that Pt(111) could be the active site for the oxidation of light hydrocarbons. The study provides a universal framework for the automated construction of reaction mechanisms with correlated uncertainty quantification, enabling a DFT‐constrained microkinetic model optimization for other heterogeneously catalyzed systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗