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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Development of compact tokamak fusion reactor use cases to inform future transport studies

The OMFIT STEP (Meneghini et al. , Nucl. Fusion , vol. 10, 2020, p. 1088) workflow has been used to develop inductive and steady-state H-mode core plasma scenario use cases for a $B_0 = 8 \, {\rm T}$ , $R_0 = 4 \, {\rm m}$ machine to help guide and inform future higher-fidelity studies of core transport and confinement in compact tokamak reactors. Both use cases are designed to produce 200 MW or more of net electric power in an up-down symmetric plasma with minor radius $a = 1.4 \, {\rm m}$ , elongation $\kappa = 2.0$ , triangularity $\delta = 0.5$ and effective charge $Z_{{\rm eff}} \simeq 2$ . Additional considerations based on the need for compatibility of the core with reactor-relevant power exhaust solutions and external actuators were used to guide and constrain the use case development. An extensive characterization of core transport in both scenarios is presented, the most important feature of which is the extreme sensitivity of the results to the quantitative stiffness level of the transport model used as well as the predicted critical gradients. This sensitivity is shown to arise from different levels of transport stiffness exhibited by the models, combined with the gyroBohm-normalized fluxes of the predictions being an order of magnitude larger than other H-mode plasmas. Additionally, it is shown that although heating in both plasmas is predominantly to the electrons and collisionality is low, the plasmas remain sufficiently well coupled for the ions to carry a significant fraction of the thermal transport. As neoclassical transport is negligible in these conditions, this situation inherently requires long-wavelength ion gyroradius-scale turbulence to be the dominant transport mechanism in both plasmas. These results are combined with other basic considerations to propose a simple heuristic model of transport in reactor-relevant plasmas, along with simple metrics to quantify coupling and core transport properties across burning and non-burning plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

On the Relation between Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine Loading and Short-Lived Tropospheric Source Gases

Current methods for estimating the concentrations of inorganic chlorine/bromine species Cl(y)/Br(y) in the stratosphere due to decomposition of tropospheric source gases assume that the Cl(y)/Br(y) concentration in the stratosphere is determined mainly by the balance between production from in situ oxidation of the source gases in the stratosphere and removal by transport of Cl(y)/Br(y) out of the stratosphere. The rationale being that for source gases whose lifetimes are of the order of several months or longer the concentration of Cl(y)/Br(y) in the troposphere is small because they are produced at a relatively slow rate and also removed efficiently by washout processes. As a result of the small concentration, the rate at which Cl(y)/Br(y) is transported to the stratosphere is expected to be small compared to the in situ stratospheric production. Thus the transport of Cl(y)/Br(y) from the troposphere contributes little to the stratospheric concentration. In contrast, the origin of stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) from reactive source gases with tropospheric lifetimes comparable to the washout lifetime of Cl(y)/Br(y) (of the order of 10-30 days) in the troposphere is distinctly different. The in situ source in the stratosphere is expected to be significantly smaller because only a small portion of the source gas is expected to survive the troposphere to be transported into this region. At the same time these short-lived source gases produce appreciable amounts of Cl(y)/Br(y) in the troposphere such that transport to the stratosphere offers a larger source for stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) than in situ production. Thus, for reactive source species, simple methods of estimating the concentration of stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) that ignore the tropospheric contribution will seriously underestimate the loading. Therefore estimation of the stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) loading requires not only measurements of tropospheric source gases but also measurements of Cl(y)/Br(y) at the tropopause. This paper illustrates the mechanism by using results from a two-dimensional chemistry-transport model. However, in view of the importance of tropospheric transport on stratospheric loading the detailed values should be further evaluated using a three-dimensional model with appropriate treatment of convective transport.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fundamental study of gas species transport in the oxygen electrode of solid oxide fuel and electrolysis cells

A fundamental analysis of multicomponent gas transport models was performed in application to the oxygen electrodes of solid oxide cells. It is common practice to neglect the effect of pressure gradients within oxygen electrodes, even though a net molar flux at the electrolyte surface implies that a pressure gradient must exist. The influence of both Darcy velocity and Knudsen flux are considered in the context of ordinary (Fickian) diffusion, the dusty gas model, and the binary friction model. Comparisons between the models and different sets of assumptions are made via parametric studies on operating load, oxygen partial pressure, microstructural properties, and electrode thickness. Results show that the pressure gradient will have a significant impact on the oxygen concentration distribution and therefore the concentration overpotential. In electrolysis mode, pressure increases up to 1 atm are predicted, indicating that pressure at the electrode/electrolyte interface could contribute to electrode delamination. Additionally, it is found that Darcy's law is insufficient for calculating the pressure distribution without accounting for the flux due to Knudsen diffusion. Additionally, it is found that for the range of properties typical of oxygen electrodes, there is a negligibly small difference between the dusty gas model and binary friction model from a practical standpoint.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Quantification of Pore Networks and Anthropogenic Carbon Mineralization in Stacked Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations are promising candidates for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 due to their storage capacity, porosity, permeability, and reactive geochemical trapping ability. The Wallula Basalt Carbon Storage Pilot Project demonstrated that supercritical CO 2 injected into >800 m deep Columbia River Basalt Group stacked reservoir flow tops mineralizes to ankerite-siderite-aragonite on month-year timescales, with 60% of the 977 metric tonnes of CO 2 converted within two years. The potential impacts of mineral precipitation and consequent changes on rock porosity, pore structure, pore size, and pore size distributions have likely been underestimated hitherto. Herein, we address these knowledge gaps using X-ray Micro Computed Tomography (XMT) to evaluate the pore network architecture of sidewall cores recovered two years after CO 2 injection. In the present study, we performed a detailed quantitative analysis of the CO 2 -reacted basalt cores by XMT imaging. Reconstructed 3D images were analyzed to study the distribution and volumetric details of porosity and carbonate nodules in the cores along with the various other phases, providing insight into paragenesis and carbonate growth mechanisms, including mineralogic/chemical zonation. Finally, these findings are being used to parametrize multiphase reactive transport models to predict the fate and transport of subsurface CO 2 , enabling scale-up to commercial-scale geologic carbon storage in basalts and other reactive mafic-ultramafic formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Attributing human mortality from fire PM 2.5 to climate change

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we used three well-tested fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions to climate change. Of the 46401 (1960s) –to 98748 (2010s) annual fire PM 2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) –to 12566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia, and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity, and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, like South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

RF sheath induced sputtering on Proto-MPEX. I. Sheath equivalent dielectric layer for modeling the RF sheath

The pulsed linear plasma device Prototype Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (Proto-MPEX) uses a radio frequency (RF) helicon antenna with an aluminum nitride ceramic window for plasma production. The RF sheath created under the helicon antenna is sufficient to cause ion impact energies to be greater than the sputtering threshold of the AlN helicon window material and for impurities to be created. In this study, we investigate the RF sheath on the inner diameter of the helicon window and its impact on the impurity production rates in Proto-MPEX. Three models—a 3D COMSOL finite element RF model of the Proto-MPEX helicon region, a rectified DC sheath potential model, and the 3D Global Impurity TRansport code—are coupled together to study impurity production and transportation. This novel method of impurity generation and transport modeling spans length scales ranging from the sheath (millimeters or less) up to the full device (meters) and can be applied to other radio frequency sources and antennas in a wide range of plasma physics studies, including basic plasmas, low-temperature processing plasmas, plasma thrusters, and fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of Infiltration in the 216-U-10 and 216-B-3 Pond Systems 1944-1997

A modeling system to simulate fate and transport of contaminant plumes in groundwater beneath the Central Plateau to support the Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE) and Composite Analysis (CA) is being developed. The CIE will evaluate the cumulative effect of multiple Central Plateau radiological and chemical sources on groundwater quality (DOE/RL-2018-69, Cumulative Impact Evaluation Technical Approach Document ). This will enable cleanup decisions to be evaluated in the context of all Central Plateau waste sites and existing groundwater conditions. The CA evaluates the cumulative effect of all sources of radioactive materials on radiological dose to future members of the public (DOE/RL-2018-60, Annual Status Report (FY 2018): Composite Analysis of Low Level Waste Disposal in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site ). Fate and transport modeling will be used to forecast future groundwater concentrations for both the CIE and CA. The CIE/CA subsurface modeling system is divided into source (inventory), vadose zone, and saturated zone facets. Source inventory is a necessary input to the vadose zone facet, and releases from the vadose zone to groundwater are inputs to the saturated zone facet. The vadose zone facet simulates historical and future releases from the vadose zone to groundwater for both liquid waste and solid waste disposal sites. Effluent release volumes and radionuclide inventory estimates for liquid waste sites are contained in ECFHANFORD- 17-0079, Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM-v2) Calculated Radionuclide Inventory of Direct Liquid Discharges to Soil in the Hanford Site’s 200 Areas , herein referred to as SIM-v2. The liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 include the 216-B-3 Pond near 200 East Area and the 216-U-10 Pond in 200 West Area. The 216-B-3 Pond system consisted of a main pond and 3 expansion lobes that were operational during overlapping time periods. It also included influent ditches, but these are not listed as liquid waste sources in SIM-v2 and are not included in the CIE/CA modeling. The total effluent volume released to the pond system was measured, but the partitioning of this volume to the various expansion lobes was not determined and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Regarding the 216-U-10 Pond, it received water from several influent ditches. The pond and the influent ditches are listed as liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 and are included as sources in the CIE/CA modeling. Because water in the ditches flowed into the pond, only a portion of the effluent volumes and contaminant inventories assigned to the ditches in SIM-v2 infiltrated from the ditches. Thus, partitioning of infiltration and contaminant inventories between the ditches and the pond is not fully accounted for in SIM-v2. Further, some of the water in the 216-U-10 Pond entered overflow ditches and the amount of this overflow was not recorded and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Thus, the purpose of this Environmental Calculation File (ECF) is to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the main pond and each expansion lobe of the 216-B-3 Pond system, and to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the ditches and pond of the 216-U-10 Pond system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays in Central Appalachia

The goal of the Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays (ESUP) in Central Appalachia project was to investigate and characterize the resource potential for multi-play production of emerging unconventional reservoirs in Central Appalachia. Project activities included drilling, logging and coring of a vertical characterization well drilled to basement to approximately 15,000 feet in depth. The data from drilling and well logs as well recovered core samples were used by the research team to support characterization of the geology and potential pay zones within the Nora Gas Field of southwestern Virginia and the greater Central Appalachian Basin. This project was led by Dr. Nino Ripepi of the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) in close collaboration with EnerVest Operating LLC (EnerVest). VCCER is housed in the Department of Mining and Minerals Engineering at Virginia Tech and was created by an Act of the Virginia General Assembly on March 30, 1977, as an interdisciplinary study, research, information, and resource facility for the Commonwealth of Virginia. EnerVest is a top tier, low-cost oil and natural gas company with a long history of traditional operating relationships with institutional investors as well as public and private companies. This report summarizes two major research activities: 1) Log and Core Analysis and 2) Numerical Modeling. Core analysis comprises the characterization efforts of the ESUP Field Laboratory and includes a discussion of the well logs run in the deep characterization wells, an initial analysis of those, the number, size and location of cores recovered, core testing and analysis done to date as well as plans for future analysis. Numerical modeling is comprised of seven major modeling efforts, including (1) Multiphysics shale transport modeling work, (2) the developed in-house compositional simulator studies, (3) reservoir modeling studies using GEM software, (4) fracture modeling work using EFRAC3D software and (5) numerical modeling efforts with ABAQUS software, (6) Numerical modeling efforts using FLAC3D and PFC3D, and (7) Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) Studies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling 2p-2h Interactions in Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering: A Comparative Overview of the Valencia and SuSAv2-MEC Models

2p-2h interactions are crucial for describing ν-A scattering, especially in the "dip region" between the Quasi-Elastic (QE) peak and Δ-resonance production. They involve the ejection of two nucleons, leading to two holes in the nuclear ground state. The underlying nuclear dynamics involve short-range correlations (SRC), long-range correlations (Random Phase Approximation, RPA), and the interplay of one- and two-body currents. Several models attempt to describe 2p-2h interactions, including Microscopic Models (e.g., Valencia), Scaling-Based Models (e.g., SuSAv2-MEC), and Transport Models (e.g., GiBUU). Despite progress, discrepancies exist between models and with data. I Will give an overview of 2p2h from the perspective of two Models Valencia and SuSAv2-MEC.

Hassinin, Karim [Houston U.]↗
NASA NTRS1979

A nested numerical tidal model of the southern New England bight

Efforts were focused on the development and application of a three-dimensional numerical model for predicting pollutant and sediment transport in estuarine and coastal environments. To successfully apply the pollutant and sediment transport model to Rhode Island coastal waters, it was determined that the flow field in this region had to be better described through the use of existing numerical circulation models. A nested, barotropic numerical tidal model was applied to the southern New England Bight (Long Island, Block Island, Rhode Island Sounds, Buzzards Bay, and the shelf south of Block Island). Forward time and centered spatial differences were employed with the bottom friction term evaluated at both time levels. Using existing tide records on the New England shelf, adequate information was available to specify the tide height boundary condition further out on the shelf. Preliminary results are within the accuracy of the National Ocean Survey tide table data.

Gordon, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mass and momentum turbulent transport experiments with confined coaxial jets

An experimental study of mixing downstream of coaxial jets discharging into an expanded circular duct was conducted to obtain data for the evaluation and improvement of turbulent transport models. A combination of turbulent momentum transport rate and two components of velocity data were obtained from simultaneous measurements with a two-color LV system. A combination of turbulent mass transport rate, concentration and velocity data were obtained from simultaneous measurements with laser velocimeter (LV) and laser induced fluorescence (LIF) systems.

Johnson, B. V.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dynamics and composition of particles from an aeolian input event to the Sargasso Sea

The present paper is concerned with studies related to the capture of aeolian mineral particles in the Sargasso Sea region in late June 1980. Attention is given to measurement techniques, aerosol sampling, particle trap sampling, investigations utilizing scanning electron microscopy, and the obtained results. Conceivable sources for nonbiogenic particles measured in the water column are related to fallout from the Mount St. Helens eruption and soil materials transported by winds from the North American or African continents. It is found that present aerosol transport models are not adequaely addressing the transport of giant particles from the Sahara to the Sargasso Sea. Data regarding the variation of Sargasso Sea aerosol mass concentrations with time are presented in a table.

Carder, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Average Quality Factors by TEPC for Charged Particles

The quality factor used in radiation protection is defined as a function of LET, Q(sub ave)(LET). However, tissue equivalent proportional counters (TEPC) measure the average quality factors as a function of lineal energy (y), Q(sub ave)(Y). A model of the TEPC response for charged particles considers energy deposition as a function of impact parameter from the ion s path to the volume, and describes the escape of energy out of sensitive volume by delta-rays and the entry of delta rays from the high-density wall into the low-density gas-volume. A common goal for operational detectors is to measure the average radiation quality to within accuracy of 25%. Using our TEPC response model and the NASA space radiation transport model we show that this accuracy is obtained by a properly calibrated TEPC. However, when the individual contributions from trapped protons and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are considered; the average quality factor obtained by TEPC is overestimated for trapped protons and underestimated for GCR by about 30%, i.e., a compensating error. Using TEPC's values for trapped protons for Q(sub ave)(y), we obtained average quality factors in the 2.07-2.32 range. However, Q(sub ave)(LET) ranges from 1.5-1.65 as spacecraft shielding depth increases. The average quality factors for trapped protons on STS-89 demonstrate that the model of the TEPC response is in good agreement with flight TEPC data for Q(sub ave)(y), and thus Q(sub ave)(LET) for trapped protons is overestimated by TEPC. Preliminary comparisons for the complete GCR spectra show that Q(sub ave)(LET) for GCR is approximately 3.2-4.1, while TEPC measures 2.9-3.4 for QQ(sub ave)(y), indicating that QQ(sub ave)(LET) for GCR is underestimated by TEPC.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2,O3, N2O, HNO3 , N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25-0.01 hPa in the Northern hemisphere (40-90 N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSY Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SO1ar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOS, and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated NO(y) enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO(y) partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Funke, B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Intercomparative Study of the Effects of Aircraft Emissions on Surface Air Quality

This study intercompares, among five global models, the potential impacts of all commercial aircraft emissions worldwide on surface ozone and particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The models include climate-response models (CRMs) with interactive meteorology, chemical-transport models (CTMs) with prescribed meteorology, and models that integrate aspects of both. Model inputs are harmonized in an effort to achieve a consensus about the state of understanding of impacts of 2006 commercial aviation emissions. Models find that aircraft increase near-surface ozone (0.3 to 1.9 percent globally), with qualitatively similar spatial distributions, highest in the Northern Hemisphere. Annual changes in surface-level PM (sub 2.5) in the CTMs (0.14 to 0.4 percent) and CRMs (-1.9 to 1.2 percent) depend on differences in nonaircraft baseline aerosol fields among models and the inclusion of feedbacks between aircraft emissions and changes in meteorology. The CTMs tend to result in an increase in surface PM (sub 2.5) primarily over high-traffic regions in the North American midlatitudes. The CRMs, on the other hand, demonstrate the effects of aviation emissions on changing meteorological fields that result in large perturbations over regions where natural emissions (e.g., soil dust and sea spray) occur. The changes in ozone and PM (sub 2.5) found here may be used to contextualize previous estimates of impacts of aircraft emissions on human health.

Air quality↗
NASA NTRS2020

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Mauna Loa↗
NASA NTRS2020

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗