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Optical Properties of High Area-to-Mass Objects at GEO

There exists at GEO a significant population of faint debris (R > 15th magnitude) with high area-to-mass ratios (AMR) (1 to 30 sq m/kg). Their orbital elements (particularly eccentricity and inclination) are observed to change on the time-scale of a week. The consensus is that these objects may be fragments of multi-layer insulation (MLI) blankets. Their orbits are primarily perturbed by solar radiation pressure. In this paper we will report preliminary results from an international collaboration to investigate the unresolved optical properties of these objects. This population was originally discovered by the ESA Space Debris Telescope, and the bulk of the objects to be described here are based on discoveries made with this telescope. Additional objects were supplied by both Russia and the US Air Force. Follow-up optical observations were obtained for a sample of a dozen objects by MODEST (the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope) located at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. Sequences of calibrated observations in filters B, V, Broad R, and I were obtained under photometric conditions. Multi-color photometric observations in B, V, R, and I band of the same objects were also acquired at the Zimmerwald 1-meter telescope, located near Bern, Switzerland. Light curves of selected high AMR objects will be shown with a temporal resolution of a few seconds and typically span about 10 minutes. Photometric observations of these objects were acquired at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (CrAO). This data set includes light curves of objects having high variability of brightness and observed with 2.6 m and 0.64 m class instruments. We will present an analysis of the observed magnitudes and colors, and their correlations (or lack of correlation) with orbital elements, and with predicted values for MLI fragments. This represents the first such collaborative observational program on faint debris at GEO.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

Economic and operational investigation of CO 2 sequestration through enhanced oil recovery in unconventional reservoirs in Colorado, USA

The ongoing CCUS commercial projects are highly relied on the support of government incentives due to massive capital investment. Here, this study analyzes the economics of carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects, shows a state-wide CCUS deployment exercise, followed by simulation results of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) based CO 2 storage in unconventional reservoirs. The comprehensive economic analysis of capture, transportation, sequestration costs, enhanced 45Q tax credits, and EOR revenue implies the practicality of CO 2 -EOR to offset the high CCUS costs. With the economics understanding, we study the top CO 2 sources, existing CO 2 pipelines, and sequestration sinks in the state of Colorado, USA. This paper next presents results from EOR simulation in one section of the unconventional Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin Niobrara and Codell reservoirs. The simulation model is based on a geological static model, incorporated with hydraulic fracture stimulation, history matched to production, and calibrated to the microseismic and time-lapse surface seismic data. The CO 2 -EOR simulation results show that oil production can be increased and more CO 2 stored with: a longer primary production period; the presence of a shut-in period; higher injection rates; and multi-well injectors. The modeling results show that about 7–10 Mscf of CO 2 will be stored when recovering 1 stb of EOR oil. By adding the enhanced oil revenue and the carbon credits together, it is estimated that the most economic case can generate $\$13$ MM when oil price is assumed to be $\$80$/stb, and the EOR oil revenue is 3.4 times greater than that generated from 45Q incentives. It corresponds to the scenario that a five-year primary production is followed by CO 2 injection into four wells with the sequence of injection (4 MMscf/day for 6 months), shut-in (6 months) and production (12 months). The best practices in this study will provide valuable insights for similar CCUS projects in other unconventional fields. Furthermore, this study defines a term named “Carbon Neutrality Index (CNI)” by comparing the amount of CO 2 stored with that burned by EOR oil. The CNI value of 0 indicates the enhanced oil is carbon neutral; a negative CNI value implies there is a net reduction in carbon emission. The 4-year huff-n-puff (HnP) simulation leads to a positive CNI value, indicating that the EOR oil generated in this process is not carbon neutral yet.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

A preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity is presented. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. It is shown that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Evaluation of Dual-Launch Lunar Architectures Using the Mission Assessment Post Processor

The National Aeronautics and Space Administrations (NASA) Constellation Program is currently designing a new transportation system to replace the Space Shuttle, support human missions to both the International Space Station (ISS) and the Moon, and enable the eventual establishment of an outpost on the lunar surface. The present Constellation architecture is designed to meet nominal capability requirements and provide flexibility sufficient for handling a host of contingency scenarios including (but not limited to) launch delays at the Earth. This report summarizes a body of work performed in support of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Committee. It analyzes three lunar orbit rendezvous dual-launch architecture options which incorporate differing methodologies for mitigating the effects of launch delays at the Earth. NASA employed the recently-developed Mission Assessment Post Processor (MAPP) tool to quickly evaluate vehicle performance requirements for several candidate approaches for conducting human missions to the Moon. The MAPP tool enabled analysis of Earth perturbation effects and Earth-Moon geometry effects on the integrated vehicle performance as it varies over the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle. Results are provided summarizing best-case and worst-case vehicle propellant requirements for each architecture option. Additionally, the associated vehicle payload mass requirements at launch are compared between each architecture and against those of the Constellation Program. The current Constellation Program architecture assumes that the Altair lunar lander and Earth Departure Stage (EDS) vehicles are launched on a heavy lift launch vehicle. The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) is separately launched on a smaller man-rated vehicle. This strategy relaxes man-rating requirements for the heavy lift launch vehicle and has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of the overall architecture over the operational lifetime of the program. The crew launch occurs first, four days prior to the optimal trans-lunar injection (TLI) departure window. This is done to allow for launch delays in the Altair/EDS launch. During this time, the Orion vehicle is required to conduct orbit maintenance while loitering in low Earth orbit (LEO). The alternative architectures presented aim to eliminate the need for costly orbit maintenance maneuvers while loitering in LEO. In all of the alternative architectures considered, it is assumed that the Altair and Orion vehicles are nominally launched 90 minutes apart, depart the Earth separately, and complete the rendezvous and docking sequence at the Moon. In this lunar orbit rendezvous (LOR) strategy, both the Altair and Orion vehicles will require separate EDS stages, and each will be required to perform lunar orbit insertion (LOI). This has the effect of balancing payload requirements between the two launch vehicles at the Earth. In this case, the overall payload mass is increased slightly, but the increased mission costs could potentially be offset by requiring the construction of two rockets similar in size and nature, unlike the current Constellation architecture. Three dual-launch architecture options with LOR were evaluated, which incorporate differing methodologies for mitigating the effects of launch delays at the Earth. Benefits and drawbacks of each of the dual-launch architecture options with LOR are discussed and the overall mission performance is compared with that of the existing Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Stewart, Shaun M.↗

Geologic Mapping of the Meridiani Region, Mars

The light toned bedrock that has been observed at the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity landing site is an upper layer in a sequence >600 m thick in places. These outcrops contain mineral and textural signatures that require interaction of, and possibly formation from, water. Many distinct layers are visible in the remote sensing data (e.g. Figure 1) and no work has ever characterized the full set of these materials that cover an area >3 105 km2 spanning 20 of longitude. Thus, whatever water-related process( es?) altered, and possibly formed, the rocks at the Opportunity landing site extended over a vast region of Mars. Yet many questions remain to be answered, such as: (1) in what capacity did water form and alter the deposits?, (2) what are the temporal and spatial relations with other major events known from ancient Mars?, and (3) would this type of environment have been conducive to the development of life? To address these questions we are completing a detailed geologic, stratigraphic, and thermophysical properties study of this widespread terrain. Specifically, we are drafting a 1:2M-scale geological map covering the full extent of these water-related deposits. In tandem with the mapping, Hynek and Phillips [1] have conducted a preliminary stratigraphic analysis of the stack of materials. After mapping is complete, we will study the thermophysical properties of the varied layers to derive possible compositional information of the materials. These tasks serve several purposes including gaining an understanding of the complex nature of these materials, their potential source region(s), and their timing of emplacement. All of these efforts are necessary to place the observations by the Opportunity Rover in a broader context and prepare for potential future landed missions to the region. Understanding the large-scale paleohydrology of Mars is central to NASA s goals and vital for determining if life ever arose on the planet.

Hynek, B. M.↗

Autonomous Image Analysis for Future Mars Missions

To explore high priority landing sites and to prepare for eventual human exploration, future Mars missions will involve rovers capable of traversing tens of kilometers. However, the current process by which scientists interact with a rover does not scale to such distances. Specifically, numerous command cycles are required to complete even simple tasks, such as, pointing the spectrometer at a variety of nearby rocks. In addition, the time required by scientists to interpret image data before new commands can be given and the limited amount of data that can be downlinked during a given command cycle constrain rover mobility and achievement of science goals. Experience with rover tests on Earth supports these concerns. As a result, traverses to science sites as identified in orbital images would require numerous science command cycles over a period of many weeks, months or even years, perhaps exceeding rover design life and other constraints. Autonomous onboard science analysis can address these problems in two ways. First, it will allow the rover to preferentially transmit "interesting" images, defined as those likely to have higher science content. Second, the rover will be able to anticipate future commands. For example, a rover might autonomously acquire and return spectra of "interesting" rocks along with a high-resolution image of those rocks in addition to returning the context images in which they were detected. Such approaches, coupled with appropriate navigational software, help to address both the data volume and command cycle bottlenecks that limit both rover mobility and science yield. We are developing fast, autonomous algorithms to enable such intelligent on-board decision making by spacecraft. Autonomous algorithms developed to date have the ability to identify rocks and layers in a scene, locate the horizon, and compress multi-spectral image data. We are currently investigating the possibility of reconstructing a 3D surface from a sequence of images acquired by a robotic arm camera. This would then allow the return of a single completely in focus image constructed only from those portions of individual images that lie within the camera's depth of field. Output from these algorithms could be used to autonomously obtain rock spectra, determine which images should be transmitted to the ground, or to aid in image compression. We will discuss these algorithms and their performance during a recent rover field test.

Gulick, V. C.↗

Whole metagenome sequencing and 16S rRNA gene amplicon analyses reveal the complex microbiome responsible for the success of enhanced in-situ reductive dechlorination (ERD) of a tetrachloroethene-contaminated Superfund site

The North Railroad Avenue Plume (NRAP) Superfund site in New Mexico, USA exemplifies successful chlorinated solvent bioremediation. NRAP was the result of leakage from a dry-cleaning that operated for 37 years. The presence of tetrachloroethene biodegradation byproducts, organohalide respiring genera (OHRG), and reductive dehalogenase (rdh) genes detected in groundwater samples indicated that enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) was the remedy of choice. This was achieved through biostimulation by mixing emulsified vegetable oil into the contaminated aquifer. This report combines metagenomic techniques with site monitoring metadata to reveal new details of ERD. DNA extracts from groundwater samples collected prior to and at four, 23 and 39 months after remedy implementation were subjected to whole metagenome sequencing (WMS) and 16S rRNA gene amplicon (16S) analyses. The response of the indigenous NRAP microbiome to ERD protocols is consistent with results obtained from microcosms, dechlorinating consortia, and observations at other contaminated sites. WMS detects three times as many phyla and six times as many genera as 16S. Both techniques reveal abundance changes in Dehalococcoides and Dehalobacter that reflect organohalide form and availability. Methane was not detected before biostimulation but appeared afterwards, corresponding to an increase in methanogenic Archaea. Assembly of WMS reads produced scaffolds containing rdh genes from Dehalococcoides, Dehalobacter, Dehalogenimonas, Desulfocarbo, and Desulfobacula. Anaerobic and aerobic cometabolic organohalide degrading microbes that increase in abundance include methanogenic Archaea, methanotrophs, Dechloromonas, and Xanthobacter, some of which contain hydrolytic dehalogenase genes. Aerobic cometabolism may be supported by oxygen gradients existing in aquifer microenvironments or by microbes that produce O 2 via microbial dismutation. The NRAP model for successful ERD is consistent with the established pathway and identifies new taxa and processes that support this syntrophic process. This project explores the potential of metagenomic tools (MGT) as the next advancement in bioremediation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Extraction and Separation Modeling of Orion Test Vehicles with ADAMS Simulation

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project has increased efforts to demonstrate the performance of fully integrated parachute systems at both higher dynamic pressures and in the presence of wake fields using a Parachute Compartment Drop Test Vehicle (PCDTV) and a Parachute Test Vehicle (PTV), respectively. Modeling the extraction and separation events has proven challenging and an understanding of the physics is required to reduce the risk of separation malfunctions. The need for extraction and separation modeling is critical to a successful CPAS test campaign. Current PTV-alone simulations, such as Decelerator System Simulation (DSS), require accurate initial conditions (ICs) drawn from a separation model. Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems (ADAMS), a Commercial off the Shelf (COTS) tool, was employed to provide insight into the multi-body six degree of freedom (DOF) interaction between parachute test hardware and external and internal forces. Components of the model include a composite extraction parachute, primary vehicle (PTV or PCDTV), platform cradle, a release mechanism, aircraft ramp, and a programmer parachute with attach points. Independent aerodynamic forces were applied to the mated test vehicle/platform cradle and the separated test vehicle and platform cradle. The aero coefficients were determined from real time lookup tables which were functions of both angle of attack ( ) and sideslip ( ). The atmospheric properties were also determined from a real time lookup table characteristic of the Yuma Proving Grounds (YPG) atmosphere relative to the planned test month. Representative geometries were constructed in ADAMS with measured mass properties generated for each independent vehicle. Derived smart separation parameters were included in ADAMS as sensors with defined pitch and pitch rate criteria used to refine inputs to analogous avionics systems for optimal separation conditions. Key design variables were dispersed in a Monte Carlo analysis to provide the maximum expected range of the state variables at programmer deployment to be used as ICs in DSS. Extensive comparisons were made with Decelerator System Simulation Application (DSSA) to validate the mated portion of the ADAMS extraction trajectory. Results of the comparisons improved the fidelity of ADAMS with a ramp pitch profile update from DSSA. Post-test reconstructions resulted in improvements to extraction parachute drag area knock-down factors, extraction line modeling, and the inclusion of ball-to-socket attachments used as a release mechanism on the PTV. Modeling of two Extraction parachutes was based on United States Air Force (USAF) tow test data and integrated into ADAMS for nominal and Monte Carlo trajectory assessments. Video overlay of ADAMS animations and actual C-12 chase plane test videos supported analysis and observation efforts of extraction and separation events. The COTS ADAMS simulation has been integrated with NASA based simulations to provide complete end to end trajectories with a focus on the extraction, separation, and programmer deployment sequence. The flexibility of modifying ADAMS inputs has proven useful for sensitivity studies and extraction/separation modeling efforts. 1

Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.↗

A Phobos-Deimos Mission as an Element of the NASA Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0

NASA has conducted a series of mission studies over the past 25 years examining the eventual exploration of the surface of Mars by humans. The latest version of this evolutionary series of design reference missions/architectures - Design Reference Architecture 5 or DRA-5 - was completed in 2007. This paper examines the implications of including a human mission to explore the moons of Mars and teleoperate robots in various locations, but not to land the human crews on Mars, as an element of this reference architecture. Such a mission has been proposed several times during this same 25 year evolution leading up to the completion of DRA-5 primarily as a mission of testing the in-space vehicles and operations while surface vehicles and landers are under development. But such a precursor or test mission has never been explicitly included as an element of this Architecture. This paper will first summarize the key features of the DRA-5 to provide context for the remainder of the assessment. This will include a description of the in-space vehicles that would be the subject of a shakedown test during the Mars orbital mission. A decision tree will be used to illustrate the factors that will be analyzed, and the sequence in which they will be addressed, for this assessment. The factors that will be analyzed include the type of interplanetary transfer orbit (opposition class versus conjunction class), the type of parking orbit (circular versus elliptical), and the type of propulsion technology (high thrust chemical versus nuclear thermal rocket). The manner in which each of these factors impacts an individual mission will be described. In addition to the direct impact of these factors, additional considerations impacting crew health and overall programmatic outcomes will be discussed. Numerical results for each of the factors in the decision tree will be grouped with derived qualitative impacts from crew health and programmatic consideration. These quantitative and qualitative results will be summarized in a pros/cons table as a summary for this analysis.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Depositional and tectonic setting of the Archean Moodies Group, Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa

The 3.22-3.10 Ga old Moodies Group, uppermost unit of the Swaziland Supergroup in the Barberton Greenstone Belt (BGB), is the oldest exposed, well-preserved quartz-rich sedimentary sequence on earth. It is preserved in structurally separate blocks in a heavily deformed fold-and-thrust belt. North of the Inyoka Fault, Moodies strata reach up to 3700 m in thickness. Detailed mapping, correlation of measured sections, and systematic analysis of paleocurrents show that the lower Moodies Group north of the Inyoka Fault forms a deepening- and fining-upward sequence from a basal alluvial conglomerate through braided fluvial, tidal, and deltaic sandstones to offshore sandy shelf deposits. The basal conglomerate and overlying fluvial facies were derived from the north and include abundant detritus eroded from underlying Fig Tree Group dacitic volcanic rocks. Shoreline-parallel transport and extensive reworking dominate overlying deltaic, tidal, and marine facies. The lithologies and arrangement of Moodies Group facies, sandstone petrology, the unconformable relationship between Moodies strata and older deformed rocks, presence of at least one syndepositional normal fault, and presence of basaltic flow rocks and airfall fall tuffs interbedded with the terrestrial strata collectively suggest that the lower Moodies Group was deposited in one or more intramontane basins in an extensional setting. Thinner Moodies sections south of the Inyoka Fault, generally less than 1000 m thick, may be correlative with the basal Moodies Group north of the Inyoka Fault and were probably deposited in separate basins. A northerly derived, southward-thinning fan-delta conglomerate in the upper part of the Moodies Group in the central BGB overlies lower strata with an angular unconformity. This and associated upper Moodies conglomerates mark the beginning of basin shortening by south- to southeast-directed thrust faulting along the northern margin of the BGB and suggest that the upper Moodies Group was deposited in a foreland basin. Timing, orientation, and style of shortening suggest that this deformation eventually incorporated most of the BGB into a major fold-and-thrust belt.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Surveyor Project Final Report: Part 1 - Project Description and Performance, Volume 1

The Surveyor Project planned and conducted seven unmanned lunar missions for which spacecraft were launched between May 1966 and January 1968. Each of the spacecraft was successfully launched with the then newly developed Atlas/Centaur vehicle which utilized for the first time a high-specific-impulse, liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen fueled stage. Five of the spacecraft successfully soft-landed and returned a great quantity of engineering and scientific data on extensive postlanding operations, accomplishing all mission and project objectives. Four of the spacecraft soft-landed at selected mare sites to provide data which were required to support the Apollo Program. The final spacecraft was then successfully used for scientific investigation of a contrasting site in the rugged lunar highlands. Surveyor was a fully attitude-stabilized spacecraft designed to receive and execute a wide variety of earth commands, as well as to perform certain automatic functions including the critical terminal-descent and soft-landing sequences. Significant new and advanced subsystems that were developed and/or used in combination to enable Surveyor to execute the complex terminal phase of flight were: (1) a solid-propellant main retro motor, (2) throttlable liquid-propellant vernier engines (also used for midcourse velocity correction), (3) highly sensitive velocity- and altitude-sensing radars, and (4) an automatic closed-loop guidance and control system. The first Surveyor spacecraft carried a survey television camera which, together with other engineering instrumentation, obtained in-flight and postlanding data. The complement of instruments carried on later missions included various combinations of the following additional devices: (1) a soil mechanics/surface sampler instrument for picking, digging, and handling lunar surface material; (2) an alpha scattering instrument for performing a chemical analysis of the lunar surface material; and (3) magnets attached to the spacecraft for determining magnetic properties of the soil.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory↗

Surveyor Project Final Report: Part 1 - Project Description and Performance, Volume 2

The Surveyor Project planned and conducted seven unmanned lunar missions for which spacecraft were launched between May 1966 and January 1968. Each of the spacecraft was successfully launched with the then newly developed Atlas/Centaur vehicle which utilized for the first time a high-specific-impulse, liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen fueled stage. Five of the spacecraft successfully soft-landed and returned a great quantity of engineering and scientific data on extensive postlanding operations, accomplishing all mission and project objectives. Four of the spacecraft soft-landed at selected mare sites to provide data which were required to support the Apollo Program. The final spacecraft was then successfully used for scientific investigation of a contrasting site in the rugged lunar highlands. Surveyor was a fully attitude-stabilized spacecraft designed to receive and execute a wide variety of earth commands, as well as to perform certain automatic functions including the critical terminal-descent and soft-landing sequences. Significant new and advanced subsystems that were developed and/or used in combination to enable Surveyor to execute the complex terminal phase of flight were: (1) a solid-propellant main retro motor, (2) throttlable liquid-propellant vernier engines (also used for midcourse velocity correction), (3) highly sensitive velocity- and altitude-sensing radars, and (4) an automatic closed-loop guidance and control system. The first Surveyor spacecraft carried a survey television camera which, together with other engineering instrumentation, obtained in-flight and postlanding data. The complement of instruments carried on later missions included various combinations of the following additional devices: (1) a soil mechanics/surface sampler instrument for picking, digging, and handling lunar surface material; (2) an alpha scattering instrument for performing a chemical analysis of the lunar surface material; and (3) magnets attached to the spacecraft for determining magnetic properties of the soil.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

Biogeochemistry of Pond B (Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA): Water column and Sediments

Pond B at Savannah River Site (SRS, South Carolina) is a monomictic reservoir that received SRS R reactor cooling water from 1961–1964. Previous studies conducted between the 1980s–1990s on the water column and sediments of Pond B measured trace amounts of Pu (33 MBq 238Pu and 430 MBq 239,240Pu), 241Am, and 137Cs. Since then, the pond has been relatively isolated and the radionuclide concentrations have not been monitored over time. Herein, about 30 years after the last publication on Pond B, we are re-evaluating the geochemistry and radionuclide distribution within Pond B at five locations along a horizontal transect from the inlet to outlet. In addition, we are conducting the first analysis of the microbial community composition. This data package consists of water column measurements (1) using a multi-probe sonde, (2) plutonium isotopes and total concentrations, (3) total organic/inorganic carbon concentrations, (4) trace metals and major ions concentrations, and (6) microbial community composition. Sediment measurements include (1) plutonium isotopes and total concentrations and (2) microbial community composition.For sediment core and porewater, please see other Pond B data package (ess-dive-60d2352a4495472-20200615T203925174).The data in this package will be submitted for peer review in 2023.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

De novo transcriptome in roots of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L. ) reveals gene expression dynamic and act network under alkaline salt stress

Background: Soil salinization is a major limiting factor for crop cultivation. Switchgrass is a perennial rhizomatous bunchgrass that is considered an ideal plant for marginal lands, including sites with saline soil. Here we investigated the physiological responses and transcriptome changes in the roots of Alamo (alkaline-tolerant genotype) and AM314/MS-155 (alkaline-sensitive genotype) under alkaline salt stress. Results: Alkaline salt stress significantly affected the membrane, osmotic adjustment and antioxidant systems in switchgrass roots, and the ASTTI values between Alamo and AM-314/MS-155 were divergent at different time points. A total of 108,319 unigenes were obtained after reassembly, including 73,636 unigenes in AM-314/MS-155 and 65,492 unigenes in Alamo. A total of 10,219 DEGs were identified, and the number of upregulated genes in Alamo was much greater than that in AM-314/MS-155 in both the early and late stages of alkaline salt stress. The DEGs in AM-314/MS-155 were mainly concentrated in the early stage, while Alamo showed greater advantages in the late stage. These DEGs were mainly enriched in plant-pathogen interactions, ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis and glycolysis/gluconeogenesis pathways. We characterized 1480 TF genes into 64 TF families, and the most abundant TF family was the C2H2 family, followed by the bZIP and bHLH families. A total of 1718 PKs were predicted, including CaMK, CDPK, MAPK and RLK. WGCNA revealed that the DEGs in the blue, brown, dark magenta and light steel blue 1 modules were associated with the physiological changes in roots of switchgrass under alkaline salt stress. The consistency between the qRT-PCR and RNA-Seq results confirmed the reliability of the RNA-seq sequencing data. A molecular regulatory network of the switchgrass response to alkaline salt stress was preliminarily constructed on the basis of transcriptional regulation and functional genes. Conclusions: Alkaline salt tolerance of switchgrass may be achieved by the regulation of ion homeostasis, transport proteins, detoxification, heat shock proteins, dehydration and sugar metabolism. These findings provide a comprehensive analysis of gene expression dynamic and act network induced by alkaline salt stress in two switchgrass genotypes and contribute to the understanding of the alkaline salt tolerance mechanism of switchgrass and the improvement of switchgrass germplasm.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Food Acceptability, Menu Fatigue, and Aversion During the Sirius-21 Analog Mission

Spaceflight food systems are closed systems, meaning they are restricted to the variety and quantity of food launched within resource limitations of the mission. The acceptability of the food system has been linked to caloric intake and associated nutritional benefits. ISS crew members receive substantial personal food preferences (around 25% of their total intake) but have noted in debriefs that they would prefer more food variety and preference for the length of the missions and they tire of certain foods over six months. Limits on variety and personal preference are expected to increase as missions become further from Earth. It is possible that menu fatigue leads to decreases in acceptability and increased aversion to available foods that may contribute to the body mass loss often experienced by spaceflight crews. However, the impact of repeat food consumption on acceptability has not yet been systematically investigated across potential spaceflight food systems. Limited variety and crew preferences within food categories may have more severe physical and behavioral health and performance consequences as mission duration increases. Characterizing the relationship between food acceptability and mission duration will contribute to defining requirements for an acceptable food system that will support crew health and performance on long duration missions. This study evaluated acceptability of the food system used in the SIRIUS-21 8-month mission in Moscow, Russia. To capture in situ scoring of repeat consumption experiences, we administered a weekly food acceptability questionnaire to all 5 crewmembers throughout the mission. Crewmembers scored foods they consumed at 3 meals every 6 days on a 9-point hedonic scale and provided open-ended feedback regarding food context, attributes, and the meal. The sequence was intended to capture all days in the 7-day menu cycle. The repetition was intended to target repeat food ratings that may provide insight into onset of menu fatigue where they might stop eating some foods or limit their choices to their favorites. Every 30 days crewmembers completed two additional surveys to characterize the food system, any changes to the food system, and their experience with the food system. Data collection is complete. Data are currently being assessed by descriptive statistics and visualizations of the ratings over time. The primary goal is to look for trends in the trajectories of ratings of the food items over time – both within and between individuals – to determine if there are substantial decreases in acceptability across all foods, or within specific food categories (e.g., vegetables). The number of times a particular item is scored provides some information on the frequency of consumption (preference), and the overall number of unique items can give a measure of overall variety. We will assess whether individuals were more likely to have more observations on food items that are rated higher, and whether those who rated foods higher had more or less overall variety. Since the data are composed of longitudinal subjective ratings, repeated measures techniques will be used to quantify trends over time and how these may relate to preference and variety. We will assess how these trends relate to their characterization of and experience with the SIRIUS-21 food system. We will also provide content analysis of any additional feedback collected on the open-ended questions and debrief interviews.

Grace L. Douglas↗

Microgravity Transport Phenomena Experiment (MTPE) Overview

The Microgravity Transport Phenomena Experiment (MTPE) is a fluids experiment supported by the Fundamentals in Biotechnology program in association with the Human Exploration and Development of Space (BEDS) initiative. The MTP Experiment will investigate fluid transport phenomena both in ground based experiments and in the microgravity environment. Many fluid transport processes are affected by gravity. Osmotic flux kinetics in planar membrane systems have been shown to be influenced by gravimetric orientation, either through convective mixing caused by unstably stratified fluid layers, or through a stable fluid boundary layer structure that forms in association with the membrane. Coupled transport phenomena also show gravity related effects. Coefficients associated with coupled transport processes are defined in terms of a steady state condition. Buoyancy (gravity) driven convection interferes with the attainment of steady state, and the measurement of coupled processes. The MTP Experiment measures the kinetics of molecular migration that occurs in fluids, in response to the application of various driving potentials. Three separate driving potentials may be applied to the MTP Experiment fluids, either singly or in combination. The driving potentials include chemical potential, thermal potential, and electrical potential. Two separate fluid arrangements are used to study membrane mediated and bulk fluid transport phenomena. Transport processes of interest in membrane mediated systems include diffusion, osmosis, and streaming potential. Bulk fluid processes of interest include coupled phenomena such as the Soret Effect, Dufour Effect, Donnan Effect, and thermal diffusion potential. MTP Experiments are performed in the Microgravity Transport Apparatus (MTA), an instrument that has been developed specifically for precision measurement of transport processes. Experiment fluids are contained within the MTA fluid cells, designed to create a one dimensional flow geometry of constant cross sectional area, and to facilitate fluid filling and draining operations in microgravity. The fluid cells may be used singly for bulk solutions, or in a Stokes diaphragm configuration to investigate membrane mediated phenomena. Thermal and electrical driving potentials are applied to the experiment fluids through boundary plates located at the ends of the fluid cells. In the ground based instrument, two constant temperature baths circulate through reservoirs adjacent to the boundary plates, and establish the thermal environment within the fluid cells. The boundary plates also serve as electrodes for measurement and application of electrical potentials. The Fluid Manipulation System associated with the MTA is a computer controlled system that enables storage and transfer of experiment fluids during on orbit operations. The system is used to automatically initiate experiments and manipulate fluids by orchestrating pump and valve operations through scripted sequences. Unique technologies are incorporated in the MTA for measurement of fluid properties. Volumetric Flow Sensors have been developed for precision measurement of total fluid volume contained within the fluid cells over time. This data is most useful for measuring the kinetics of osmosis, where fluid is transported from one fluid cell to another through a semipermeable membrane. The MicroSensor Array has been designed to perform in situ measurement of several important fluid parameters, providing simultaneous measurement of solution composition at multiple locations within the experiment fluids. Micromachined sensors and interface electronics have been developed to measure temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, cation activity, and anion activity. The Profile Refractometer uses a laser optical system to directly image the fluid Index of Refraction profile that exists along the MTA fluid cell axis. A video system acquires images of the RI profile over time, and records the transport kinetics that occur upon application of chemical, thermal, or electrical driving potentials. Image processing algorithms have been developed to analyze the refractometer images on a pixel by pixel basis, calibrating and scaling the measured Index of Refraction profile to correlated solution properties of interest such as density, concentration, and temperature. Additional software has been developed to compile the processed images into a three dimensional matrix that contains fluid composition data as a function of experiment time and position in the fluid cell. These data are combined with data from the other sensor systems, and analyzed in the context of transport coefficients associated with the various transport phenomena. Analysis protocols have been developed to measure the transient kinetics, and steady state distribution of fluid components that occur in response to the applied driving potentials. The results are expressed in terms of effective transport coefficients. Experiments have been performed using a variety of solutes, and results generated are that are in agreement with published transport coefficient values.

Mason, Larry W.↗