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At least 847 records · Page 47

The Cost of Saving Electricity: A Multi-Program Cost Curve for Programs Funded by U.S. Utility Customers

This study analyzed the cost performance of electricity efficiency programs implemented by 116 investor-owned utilities between 2009 and 2015 in 41 states, representing about three-quarters of the total spending on U.S. efficiency programs. We applied our typology to characterize efficiency programs along several dimensions (market sector, technology, delivery approach, and intervention strategy) and report the costs incurred by utilities and other program administrators to achieve electricity savings as a result of the programs. Such cost performance data can be used to compare relative costs of different types of efficiency programs, evaluate efficiency options alongside other electricity resources, benchmark local efficiency programs against regional and national cost estimates, and assess the costs of meeting state efficiency policies. The savings-weighted average cost of saved electricity for the period was $0.025/kilowatt-hour (kWh). The cost of saved electricity for programs that targeted residential customers was $0.021/kWh, compared to $0.025/kWh for programs for commercial and industrial customers. Ultimately, we developed an aggregate program savings “cost curve” for the actual electricity efficiency resource during the period that provides insights into the relative costs of various types of efficiency programs and the savings contribution of each program type to the efficiency resource at a national level.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Ab initio GGA+U investigations of the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of Cd 1-x Mn x Te alloy

The structural, electronic and magnetic properties of Cd 1-x Mn x Te alloy in the zinc-blende (ZB) phase within the framework of spin-polarized density functional theory using the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) are studied. In particular, we employ GGA+U SIC method that gives a better description of systems with strong Coulomb correlations of the d-electrons. First, we discuss implementation of GGA+U method to the ground state calculations of pure CdTe and ferromagnetic MnTe. The alloy is modelled at some selected compositions by ordered structures described in terms of periodically repeated supercells for the compositions x = 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75. The compositional dependence of the lattice constant, electronic band structure and partial densities of states of ferromagnetic Cd 1-x Mn x Te alloy are studied. We estimate the spin-exchange splitting energies produced by the Mn 3d-states and determine the exchange constants for the conduction and valence bands of the alloy. The energy positions of the occupied and unoccupied Mn 3d-bands in the electronic structure of ferromagnetic Cd 1-x Mn x Te alloy are also presented. Our calculations using GGA+U SIC approach agree well with the available experimental data and other calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Capturing many-body correlation effects with quantum and classical computing

Theoretical descriptions of excited states of molecular systems in high-energy regimes are crucial for supporting and driving many experimental efforts at light source facilities. However, capturing their complicated correlation effects requires formalisms that provide a hierarchical infrastructure of approximations. These approximations lead to an increased overhead in classical computing methods and, therefore, decisions regarding the ranking of approximations and the quality of results must be made on purely numerical grounds. The emergence of quantum computing methods has the potential to change this situation. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the efficiency of the quantum phase estimator (QPE) in identifying core-level states relevant to x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. We compare and validate the QPE predictions with exact diagonalization and real-time equation-of-motion coupled-cluster formulations, which are some of the most accurate methods for states dominated by collective correlation effects.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Ground and excited state properties of ThBe and AcBe

In this work, the ground and excited states of ThBe and AcBe were investigated by performing high-level multireference and single-reference coupled-cluster quantum chemical calculations with large correlation consistent basis sets. Full potential energy curves (PECs), chemical bonding patterns, energetics, spectroscopic parameters (T e , r e , ω e , and ω e x e ), and spin–orbit effects of 13 and 8 electronic states of ThBe and AcBe, respectively, are reported. The ground electronic states of ThBe and AcBe are single-reference 1 3 Σ − (1σ 2 2σ 2 1π 2 ) and 1 2 Π (1σ 2 2σ 2 1π 1 ), respectively, and originate from their corresponding ground state fragments. The chemical bonding of ThBe (1 3 Σ − ) and AcBe (1 2 Π) are π-dative in character and are formed by d-electron transfers from Th/Ac to the empty 2p x and 2p y of the Be atom. The electron populations of the f-orbitals of both ThBe (1 3 Σ − ) and AcBe (1 2 Π) are minor which exhibit their “transition-metal-like” nature. The estimated bond energies of the spin–orbit ground states of ThBe (1 3 Σ − 0+ ) and AcBe (1 2 Π 1/2 ) are 12.79 and 11.02 kcal mol −1 , respectively. Finally, the bond energy of ThBe was used to estimate its heat of formation ΔH 0 f (298 K) of 869.61 ± 6 kJ mol −1 .

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

On the connection between least squares, regularization, and classical shadows

Classical shadows (CS) offer a resource-efficient means to estimate quantum observables, circumventing the need for exhaustive state tomography. Here, we clarify and explore the connection between CS techniques and least squares (LS) and regularized least squares (RLS) methods commonly used in machine learning and data analysis. By formal identification of LS and RLS ``shadows'' completely analogous to those in CS---namely, point estimators calculated from the empirical frequencies of single measurements---we show that both RLS and CS can be viewed as regularizers for the underdetermined regime, replacing the pseudoinverse with invertible alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we evaluate RLS and CS from three distinct angles: the tradeoff in bias and variance, mismatch between the expected and actual measurement distributions, and the interplay between the number of measurements and number of shots per measurement. Compared to CS, RLS attains lower variance at the expense of bias, is robust to distribution mismatch, and is more sensitive to the number of shots for a fixed number of state copies---differences that can be understood from the distinct approaches taken to regularization. Conceptually, our integration of LS, RLS, and CS under a unifying ``shadow'' umbrella aids in advancing the overall picture of CS techniques, while practically our results highlight the tradeoffs intrinsic to these measurement approaches, illuminating the circumstances under which either RLS or CS would be preferred, such as unverified randomness for the former or unbiased estimation for the latter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Calculating the two-photon exchange contribution to K L → μ + μ − decay

We present a theoretical framework within which both the real and imaginary parts of the complex, two-photon exchange amplitude contributing to K L → μ + μ − decay can be calculated using lattice quantum chromodynamics. The real part of this two-photon amplitude is of approximately the same size as that coming from a second-order weak strangeness-changing neutral-current process. Thus a test of the standard model prediction for this second-order weak process depends on an accurate result of this two-photon amplitude. A limiting factor of our proposed method comes from low-energy three-particle π π γ states. The contribution from these states will be significantly distorted by the finite volume of our calculation—a distortion for which there is no available correction. However, a simple estimate of the contribution of these three-particle states suggests their contribution to be at most a few percent allowing their neglect in a lattice calculation with a 10% target accuracy. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Out of Distribution Detection with Neural Network Anchoring

This is code to reproduce and build on OOD detection from the paper "Out of Distribution Detection with Neural Network Anchoring". Our goal here is to exploit heteroscedastic temperature scaling as a calibration strategy for out of distribution (OOD) detection. Heteroscedasticity here refers to the fact that the optimal temperature parameter for each sample can be different, as opposed to conventional approaches that use the same value for the entire distribution. To enable this, we propose a new training strategy called anchoring that can estimate appropriate temperature values for each sample, leading to state-of-the-art OOD detection performance across several benchmarks. Using NTK theory, we show that this temperature function estimate is closely linked to the epistemic uncertainty of the classifier, which explains its behavior. In contrast to some of the best-performing OOD detection approaches, our method does not require exposure to additional outlier datasets, custom calibration objectives, or model ensembling. Through empirical studies with different OOD detection settings - far OOD, near OOD, and semantically coherent OOD - we establish a highly effective OOD detection approach.

Thiagarajan, Jayaraman↗

County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers

Customer concerns over electric system resilience could drive early adoption of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage (BTM PVESS), especially as wildfire, hurricane, and other climate-driven risks to electric grids become more pronounced. However, the resilience benefits of BTM PVESS are poorly understood, especially for residential customers, owing to lack of data and methodological challenges, making it difficult to forecast adoption trends. In this paper, we develop a methodology to model the performance of BTM PVESS in providing backup power across a wide range of customer types, geography / climate conditions, and long duration power interruption scenarios, considering both whole-building backup and backup of specific critical loads. We combine novel, disaggregated end-use load profiles across the continental United States with temporally and geospatially aligned solar generation estimates. We then implement a PVESS dispatch algorithm to calculate the amount of load served during interruptions. We find that PVESS with 10 kWh of storage can meet a limited set of critical loads in most United States counties during any month of the year, though this capability drops to meeting only 86% of critical load, averaged across all counties and months, when heating and cooling are considered critical. Backup performance is lowest in winter months where electric heat is common (southeast and northwest U.S.) and in summer months in places with large cooling loads (southwest and southeast U.S.). Winter backup performance varies by roughly 20% depending on infiltration rates, while summer performance varies by close to 15% depending on the efficiency of the central air-conditioning system. Differences in temperature set-points in Harris County correspond to a 40% range in winter backup performance and a 20% range in summer performance. Economic calculations show that a customer’s resilience value of PVESS must be high to motivate adoption of these systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

Optimization performance, fidelity, and cost: SIAM VQE

This dataset contains files storing results from classically-simulated quantum subroutines within a dynamical mean-field theory workflow, and jupyter notebooks processing the data in these files to generate plots. The files store: (1) Results from variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) simulations searching for optimal parameters allowing parametrized quantum circuits to prepare approximations to ground states of different Anderson impurity models (AIMs) (2) Results from simulations of a quantum Lanczos algorithm (QLA) estimating the Lanczos coefficients defining the continued-fraction representation of an (AIM) Green’s function Description: Any file named vqe_gs_results* stores approximations to the ground state and energy of a given AIM estimated using three different methods: (1) Numerical diagonalization (2) Ideal VQE simulation (3) VQE simulation with sampling noise For each VQE simulations metadata about the optimization (optimization results plus number of quantum circuits that would have been executed on real hardware) is also stored. Any file named qla_dos_results* estimations for the Lanczos coefficients defining the Green’s function of an AIM. The stored estimations are achieved using different methods: (1) Numerical Lanczos algorithm from initial states obtained from numerical diagonalization (2) Simulated quantum Lanczos algorithm from initial states prepared from parametrized quantum circuits yielded by corresponding ideal and noisy VQE subroutines. The dataset is used and described in M. Karabin et al., "Quantum solver for single-impurity Anderson models with particle-hole symmetry", Phys. Rev. Research 8, 033066 (2026). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/7ys3-tl4l

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A dataset of recorded electricity outages by United States county 2014–2022

In this Data Descriptor, we present county-level electricity outage estimates at 15-minute intervals from 2014 to 2022. By 2022 92% of customers in the 50 US States, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico are represented. These data have been produced by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I TM ), a geographic information system and data visualization platform created at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to map the population experiencing electricity outages every 15 minutes at the county level. Although these data do not cover every US customer, they represent the most comprehensive outage information ever compiled for the United States. The rate of coverage increases through time between 2014 and 2022. We present a quantitative Data Quality Index for these data for the years 2018–2022 to demonstrate temporal changes in customer coverage rates by FEMA region and indicators of data collection gaps or other errors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower: Documentation (2025)

Hydropower currently contributes about 80 GW of conventional and 23 GW of pumped storage capacity to the United States (US) power grid. Previous studies have estimated a considerable amount of remaining US hydropower resources, including non-powered dams (NPD) (Hadjerioua et al., 2012), new stream-reach developments (NSD) (Kao et al., 2014), pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and canal/conduit (Kao et al., 2022). The combined theoretical capacity potential of these various hydropower resources is comparable to the existing US hydropower capacity. There is a continuing interest in developing this hydropower potential, particularly to help meet the increasing demand for electricity. However, available data (Sasthav and Oladosu, 2022) show that the rate of new hydropower development has slowed considerably over time despite the interest of industry stakeholders. This is partly due to the competition from other energy resources and from the highly dispersed nature of remaining hydropower resources, which lead to high information requirements for evaluating the feasibility of potential projects. Cost information provides the most succinct summary of the feasibility of a potential hydropower project required by stakeholders, including developers, investors, policymakers, consumer groups, etc., considering investment options. The best estimates of hydropower costs can be obtained through detailed engineering design and cost assessments of individual projects. However, this approach has high data and resource (time, funds, cross-disciplinary expertise) requirements that render it inapplicable for rapid cost estimation with limited data. Although innovative approaches can overcome some of these impediments (see Oladosu and Ma, 2024 for such an application to potential NPD projects), the development of such approaches still requires significant amounts of resources and are not generally applicable to all hydropower project types. Therefore, statistical and parametric methods using simpler cost specifications remain of significant utility to hydropower stakeholders and are, at the least, complementary to more detailed approaches, particularly when evaluating many potential projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings: The Potential for Cost Savings and CO 2 Reductions from Lighting and Cooling Measures

This report presents the estimated impact of lighting and cooling efficiency and demand flexibility measures in large office buildings in each state in the contiguous United States. It provides modeled results for three different metrics: bill savings, regional grid operational costs savings, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions. Lighting efficiency and demand flexibility are estimated to reduce load by up to 80 MWh/yr in a single large office building. These load reductions result in customer bill savings of up to $8,800/yr per building, with the highest savings in southern and midwestern states. Grid operating cost savings are estimated at up to $3,240/yr/building, with greatest benefit in southern and northeastern states. CO 2 emissions reduction potential is highest in the Dakotas, Nebraska, across the Midwest, in West Virginia, and in Mississippi (<48,200 kg/yr/building). Comparatively, cooling measures are found to have less load reduction potential (<28.5 MWh/yr/building), with the greatest potential in southern states including Texas, which ranks top of the list across several of the metrics studied. In numerous states, shifting cooling load to off-peak hours is found to increase costs and CO 2 emissions because precooling results in increased load during high-cost or high-CO 2 emissions periods. In general, focusing on cooling efficiency and load shedding has the potential for more savings. In all cases, the specific rate structure is a significant determinant in actual bill savings, which are up to $4,000/yr/building. To realize the full potential for bill savings through an energy measure, building operators must identify how the measure will change the building load pattern and the interaction of this load change with the applicable rate tariff. To realize CO 2 emissions reductions, industry and state coordination is needed to verify which fuel source is on the margin and then to create incentives for end users to reduce load during high-CO 2 emissions hours. Regular updates to data sets and analyses are critical. Regulators and policymakers are well positioned to facilitate the necessary coordination between the electric industry and building energy managers to develop appropriate price signals and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

Abstract Background Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. Methods We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus , Culex nigripalpus , Culex pipiens , Culex quinquefasciatus , Culex restuans , Culex salinarius , and Culex tarsalis . Results We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. Conclusions Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗