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NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗

NASA NTRS2024

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

NASA NTRS1991

Use of satellite data and modeling to assess the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

Over the past forty years, numerous linear stability studies have been performed in order to explain the origin and structure of observed waves in the atmosphere. Of these studies, only a small fraction have considered the stability of time-dependent, zonally varying flow or the influence of radiative-photochemical feedbacks on the stability of zonally uniform flow. The stability of such flows is described, and these flows may yield important information concerning the origin, structure, and transient time scales of free waves in the atmosphere. During the period 1990 to 1991, a beta-plane model that couples radiative transfer, ozone advection, and ozone photochemistry with the quasigeostrophic dynamical circulation was developed in order to study the diabatic effects of Newtonian cooling and ozone-dynamics interaction on the linear stability of free planetary waves in the atmosphere. The stability of a basic state consisting of a westward-moving wave and a zonal mean jet was examined using a linearized, nondivergent barotropic model on sphere. The sensitivity of the stability of the flow to the strength and structure of the zonal jet was emphasized. The current research is focused on the following problems: (1) examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics; and (2) examination of the role of seasonal forcing in short-term climate variability. The plans for next year are presented.

Nathan, Terrence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regulating hydrogel mechanical properties with an electric field

Stimuli-responsive polymeric materials have attracted significant attention due to their ability to change properties in response to various external stimuli. Using an electric field as the stimulus is of particular interest as it possesses the potential for seamless integration of materials with electronic systems. While many materials with electric field responsive actuation have an associated mechanical property change, it is beneficial to develop materials that exhibit mechanical property changes without accompanying significant shape deformation. To address this challenge, here we designed a semi-interpenetrating polymer network (semi-IPN) hydrogel system containing both polyelectrolytes and salt ions, which enables electric field induced changes in mechanical properties while minimizing actuation. We first successfully verified the viability of our design by removing salt ions through a diffusion-only method where we witnessed the stiffness increased to 4.5 times the initial value while still being highly deformable. After this, we applied an electric field to transport the salt ions out of the hydrogel, as shown by both Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. We were able to show a time-dependent stiffness increase, the maximum of which was 5 times the original stiffness. We quantified ion transport and water-splitting in the hydrogel by both experiments and simulations. Following this, we showed functional system reversibility by reversing the direction of the current to reinject salt ions into the semi-IPN hydrogel and reducing its stiffness to below the initial value. It's worth noting that our simulations enable us to understand the governing mechanisms behind ion generation and salt transport that leads to mechanical property changes. Finally, we were able to fabricate a spatially variable stiffness haptic interface with our hydrogel, with demonstrated reversibility and cyclability. This research can possibly find applications in soft robotics and haptics and also inspire the development of bio-compatible electronics related devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying uncertainty in regional-scale seismic moment tensors

We examine the ability of three different inversion methods: 1) first motion (FM) inversions, 2) amplitude inversions, and 3) full waveform (FW) time variable moment tensor (TVMT) inversions, to recover an accurate source mechanism for simulated data for an earthquake as well as an explosion. The ability of inversion methods, such as the ones described above, to recover accurate models representative of the data depends on both a priori information as well as the quality of data being inverted. Therefore, we examine the effect that station geometry, geologic model, and noise level has on the inversion and estimated source mechanism. We find that FM data can provide more robust solutions than amplitude data and are not as sensitive to inaccurate earth models, especially in low-noise cases, and overall FW inversions are the most accurate out of the methods examined, but can still be biased by inaccurate earth models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toggling Stereochemical Activity through Interstitial Positioning of Cations between 2D V 2 O 5 Double Layers

The 5/6s 2 lone-pair electrons of p-block cations in their lower oxidation states are a versatile electronic and geometric structure motif that can underpin lattice anharmonicity and often engender electronic and structural instabilities that underpin the function of active elements in nonlinear optics, thermochromics, thermoelectrics, neuromorphic computing, and photocatalysis. In contrast to periodic solids where lone-pair-bearing cations are part of the structural framework, installing lone-pair-bearing cations in the interstitial sites of intercalation hosts provides a means of a systematically modulating electronic structure through the choice of the group and the period of the inserted cation while preserving the overall framework connectivity. The extent of stereochemical activity and the energy positioning of lone-pair-derived mid-gap states depend on the cation identity, stoichiometry, and strength of anion hybridization. V 2 O 5 polymorphs are versatile insertion hosts that can accommodate a broad range of s-, p-, and d-block cations. However, the insertion of lone-pair-bearing cations remains largely underexplored. In this article, we examine the implications of varying the 6s 2 cations situated in interlayer sites between condensed [V 4 O 10 ] n double layers. Systematic modulations of lattice distortions, electronic structure, and magnetic ordering are observed with increasing strength of stereochemical activity from group 12 to group 14 cations. We compare and contrast p-block-layered M x V 2 O 5 (M = Hg, Tl, and Pb) compounds and map the significance of local off-centering arising from the stereochemical activity of lone-pair cations to the emergence of filled antibonding lone-pair 6s 2 –O 2p-hybridized mid-gap states mediated by second-order Jahn–Teller distortions. Crystallographic studies of cation coordination environments and the resulting modulation of V–V interactions have been used in conjunction with variable-energy hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements, first-principles electronic structure calculations, and crystal orbital Hamilton population analyses to decipher the origins of stereochemical activity. Magnetic susceptibility measurements reveal antiferromagnetic signatures for all the three compounds. However, the differences in V–V interactions significantly affect the energy balance of the superexchange interactions, resulting in an ordering temperature of 160 and 260 K for Hg 0.5 V 2 O 5 and δ-Tl 0.5 V 2 O 5 , respectively, as compared to 7 K for δ-Pb 0.5 V 2 O 5 . In δ-Pb 0.5 V 2 O 5 , the strong stereochemical activity of electron lone pairs and the resulting electrostatic repulsions enforce superlattice ordering, which strongly modifies the electronic localization patterns along the [V 4 O 10 ] slabs, resulting in disrupted magnetic ordering and an anomalously low ordering temperature. The results demonstrate a versatile strategy for toggling the stereochemical activity of electron lone pairs to modify the electronic structure near the Fermi level and to mediate superexchange interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2004

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Yang, Fanglin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of effective mass and long-range interactions in the band-gap renormalization of photoexcited semiconductors

Understanding how to control changes in the electronic structure and related dynamical renormalizations by external driving fields is the key for understanding ultrafast spectroscopy and applications in electronics. Here, we focus on the band gap's modulation by external electric fields and uncover the effect of band dispersion on the gap renormalization. We employ the Green's function formalism using the real-time Dyson expansion to account for dynamical correlations induced by photodoping. The many-body formalism captures the dynamics of systems with long-range interactions, carrier mobility, and variable electron and hole effective mass. We also demonstrate that mean-field simulations based on the Hartree-Fock Hamiltonian, which lacks dynamical correlations, yields a qualitatively incorrect picture of band-gap renormalization. We find the trend that increasing effective mass, thus decreasing mobility, leads to as much as a 6% enhancement in band-gap renormalization. Further, the renormalization is strongly dependent on the degree of photodoping. As the screening induced by free electrons and holes effectively reduces any long-range and interband interactions for highly excited systems, we show that there is a specific turnover point with a minimal band gap. Here, we further demonstrate that the optical gap renormalization follows the same trend though its magnitude is altered by the Moss-Burstein effect.

Approximation methods for many-body systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

SIW21-95: Hybridizing Synchronous Condensers with Grid-Forming Battery Energy Storage Systems

One of the main challenges associated with deployment of high shares of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in power grid is not only reduced system inertia but also degrading system strength that may cause severe stability impacts. A minimum level of system strength is needed for the power system to remain stable under normal conditions and to return to a steady state condition following a system disturbance. Significant system strength reduction is expected in almost all planned areas for solar and wind generation deployment. Synchronous condensers (SC) have been considered as one main technology to address the system strength issues for the areas with high levels of IBRs. SCs can help improving reliability and resiliency of power system but they do not provide the full range of services needed by power systems for reliable and economic integration of high shares of inverter-coupled variable generation such as PV generation. Services related to active power controls cannot be provided by SCs due to lack of prime mover. Even for provision of reactive power SCs have certain constraints based on their thermal and stability limits. NREL has been conducting research on a hybridized concept that combines SCs with grid forming (GFM) battery energy storage systems (BESS). This super flexible AC transmission system (SuperFACTS) that combines these two technologies in a single plant under the same controller offers a unique scalable set of services to the power system at all levels (transmission, sub-transmission, distribution, islands and isolated microgrids). Depending on use cases, SuperFACTS can be controlled to provide fully dispatchable and flexible operation using energy storage component, provide a full range of existing and future ancillary and reliability services to the grid (similar or better than conventional sources), maintain adequate levels of grid strength and inertia, and provide fault current for proper operation of protection systems. Therefore, this economic and easy to commercialize solution has potential for significant impacts on certain segments of global energy sector. All types of gird services (market based, reliability and resiliency) can be provided by SuperFACTS plants. GFM BESS can act as a self-black start source for each SuperFACTS module, which in turn can act a black start resource for co-located PV and wind power plants, segments of transmission and distribution networks, for conventional power plants, etc. The issue of in-rush currents during black start is addressed by overcurrent capability of SCs. In this paper we describe the results of modeling for SuperFACTS concept.

grid forming↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of high-dose neutron irradiation at light-water reactor relevant temperature on the mechanical properties of SiC/SiC composites

For this study, the neutron dose-dependent evolutions and the underlying mechanisms of properties of SiC fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composites at a temperature relevant to light-water reactors (∼600 K) were investigated and analyzed. Chemical vapor infiltrated (CVI) SiC/SiC composites reinforced with Hi-Nicalon Type S or Tyranno SA3 fiber were neutron-irradiated to doses up to 30 dpa. The irradiated composites retained their flexural strengths. The thermal diffusivity and dimensional changes were mostly retained from 2.0 to 30.2 dpa. Discrepancies in irradiation responses among CVI SiC/SiC composites from different sources were found. Additional microstructural analysis using Raman spectroscopy and numerical analysis on irradiation effect on residual stress were used to explain how the microstructural variables, especially of carbon interphases, affect the mechanical properties in the 30–40 dpa dose range.

Continuous fiber-reinforced ceramic matrix composi↗

DOE OSTI2026

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach Using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

The uncertainty of soil moisture (SM) retrievals from satellite brightness temperature (TB) observations depends primarily on the choice of radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters, prior SM information and TB inputs. This paper studies the sensitivity of several (quasi-)operational and experimental SM retrieval products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to these choices at 11 reference sites, located in 7 watersheds across the United States (US). Different literature-based RTM parameter sets cause large biases between retrievals. Whereas typical RTM parameter sets are calibrated for SM retrievals, it is shown that a parameter set carefully optimized for TB forward modeling can also be used for retrieving SM. It is also shown that the inclusion of dynamic prior SM estimates in a Bayesian retrieval scheme can strongly improve SM retrievals, regardless of the choice of RTM parameters, and that the use of multi-angular and multi-polarization TB does not necessarily lead to superior retrievals compared to retrievals based on TB data at a single incidence angle and polarization. The second part of this paper evaluates ensemble uncertainty metrics for SM retrievals obtained by propagating a wide range of RTM parameters through the RTM. As expected for bounded variables, the spread in the ensemble SM retrievals is smallest for wet and dry SM values and highest for intermediate SM values. After removal of the strong long-term mean bias associated with the RTM parameter values for individual ensemble members, the remaining anomaly ensemble SM spread of 0.037 cu m/cu m approximates the actual time series unbiased root-mean-square-difference of 0.042 cu m/cu m between ensemble mean retrievals and in situ reference data across the reference sites. However, the temporal variability in the anomaly ensemble spread reveals higher-order biases in the retrieval error, which should be accounted for when characterizing retrieval error.

Jan Quets↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deciphering Distinct Overpotential-Dependent Pathways for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Catalyzed by an Iron–Terpyridine Complex

[Fe(tpyPY2Me)] 2+ ([Fe] 2+ ) is a homogeneous electrocatalyst for converting CO 2 into CO featuring low overpotentials of <100 mV, near-unity selectivity, and high activity with turnover frequencies faster than 100 000 s -1 . To identify the origins of its exceptional performance and inform future catalyst design, we report a combined computational and experimental study that establishes two distinct mechanistic pathways for electrochemical CO 2 reduction catalyzed by [Fe] 2+ as a function of applied overpotential. Electrochemical data shows the formation of two catalytic regimes at low (η TOF/2 of 160 mV) and high (η TOF/2 of 590 mV) overpotential plateaus. We propose that at low overpotentials [Fe] 2+ undergoes a two-electron reduction, two-proton-transfer mechanism (electrochemical-electrochemical-chemical-chemical, EECC), where turnover occurs through the dicationic iron complex, [Fe] 2+ . Computational analysis supports the importance of the singlet ground-state electronic structure for CO 2 binding and that the rate-limiting step is the second protonation in this low-overpotential regime. When more negative potentials are applied, an additional electron-transfer event occurs through either a stepwise or proton-coupled electron-transfer (PCET) pathway, enabling catalytic turnover from the monocationic iron complex ([Fe] + ) via an electrochemical-chemical-electrochemical-chemical (ECEC) mechanism. Comparison of experimental kinetic data obtained from variable controlled potential electrolysis (CPE) experiments with direct product detection with calculated rates obtained from the energetic span model supports the PCET pathway as the most likely mechanism. Moreover, we build upon this mechanistic understanding to propose the design of an improved ligand framework that is predicted to stabilize the key transition states identified in our study and explore their electronic structures using an energy decomposition analysis. Finally, taken together, this work highlights the value of synergistic computational/experimental approaches to decipher mechanisms of new electrocatalysts and direct the rational design of improved platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Performance Optimization of Gamma Spectrometers With Many Channels

In gamma spectrometers with variable spectroscopic performance across many channels (e.g., many pixels or voxels), a tradeoff exists between including data from successively worse-performing readout channels and increasing efficiency. Brute-force calculation of the optimal set of included channels is exponentially infeasible as the number of channels grows, and approximate methods are required. In this work, we present a data-driven framework for attempting to find near-optimal sets of included detector channels. The framework leverages non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to learn the behavior of gamma spectra across the detector and clusters similarly-performing detector channels together. Performance comparisons are then made between spectra with channel clusters removed, which is more feasible than brute force. The framework is general and can be applied to arbitrary, user-defined performance metrics depending on the application. We apply this framework to optimizing gamma spectra measured by H3D M400 CdZnTe (CZT) spectrometers, which exhibit variable performance across their crystal volumes. In particular, we show several examples optimizing various performance metrics for uranium and plutonium gamma spectra in non-destructive assay (NDA) for nuclear safeguards, and explore trends in performance versus parameters such as clustering algorithm type. We also compare the NMF + clustering pipeline to several non-machine-learning (ML) algorithms, including several greedy algorithms. Although, we find that the NMF + clustering pipeline tends to find the best-performing set of detector voxels, significantly improving over the unoptimized spectra, but that a greedy accumulation of spectra segmented by detector depth can, in some cases, give similar performance improvements in much less computation time.

Energy resolution↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of composition, temperature and pressure on the oxidation state and coordination environment of copper in silicate melts

Copper is a redox variable element that may occur as Cu 0 , Cu + , and Cu 2+ in the Earth’s crust. The oxidation state will affect its partitioning between coexisting minerals, melts and fluids and hence its behaviour in magmatic processes. Copper bearing silicate glasses were quenched from melts with 23 synthetic compositions (19 CaO-Na 2 O-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 (CNMAS), two “granites” containing K 2 O ± H 2 O, and Fe-bearing “MORB” and “andesite”) equilibrated at oxygen fugacities (fO 2 ), expressed in log units relative to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer, ranging from −0.7 to 14, temperatures from 900 to 1500 °C and pressures from 0 to 2.5 GPa. Cu K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra were recorded from the glasses and a pre-edge feature in the XANES spectra was found to scale with the proportion of Cu + . Cu + /ΣCu (where ΣCu = Cu + + Cu 2+ ) was quantified by fitting the intensity of the pre-edge feature as a function of fO 2 to the thermodynamically expected relationship. Cu + /ΣCu was found to only weakly depend on melt composition, with more basic melts (e.g., basalts rather than granites) preferentially stabilising Cu 2+ . Increasing temperature stabilises Cu + , while increasing pressure had little effect on Cu + /ΣCu in CNMAS melts but preferentially stabilised Cu 2+ in granite melts. Cu + /ΣCu can be predicted in silicate melts by the empirical equation: log(Cu 2+ /Cu + ) = 0.25(ΔFMQ + 8.58 − 25050/T + 940P/T – 0.02P) − 4.73 + 5400/T + 1.99Λ + (280P – 90P2) where T is temperature in K, P is pressure in GPa and is the optical basicity of the composition. The effects of fO 2 , melt composition, temperature and pressure on Cu + /ΣCu indicate that Cu + will be the dominant oxidation state in terrestrial silicate melts (e.g., Cu + /ΣCu = 99% in an andesitic melt at 900 °C, 1 GPa and ΔFMQ = 1). The electron exchange reaction Cu 2+ + Fe 2+ → Cu + + Fe 3+ occurs on cooling and, given the abundance of Fe in natural melts, the oxidation state of Cu in natural glasses is unlikely to correspond to that in the original melt.

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