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At least 847 records · Page 47

Simulation Framework to Estimate the Performance of CO2 and O2 Sensing from Space and Airborne Platforms for the ASCENDS Mission Requirements Analysis

The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission recommended by the NRC Decadal Survey has a desired accuracy of 0.3% in carbon dioxide mixing ratio (XCO2) retrievals requiring careful selection and optimization of the instrument parameters. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is investigating 1.57 micron carbon dioxide as well as the 1.26-1.27 micron oxygen bands for our proposed ASCENDS mission requirements investigation. Simulation studies are underway for these bands to select optimum instrument parameters. The simulations are based on a multi-wavelength lidar modeling framework being developed at NASA LaRC to predict the performance of CO2 and O2 sensing from space and airborne platforms. The modeling framework consists of a lidar simulation module and a line-by-line calculation component with interchangeable lineshape routines to test the performance of alternative lineshape models in the simulations. As an option the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) program may also be used for line-by-line calculations. The modeling framework is being used to perform error analysis, establish optimum measurement wavelengths as well as to identify the best lineshape models to be used in CO2 and O2 retrievals. Several additional programs for HITRAN database management and related simulations are planned to be included in the framework. The description of the modeling framework with selected results of the simulation studies for CO2 and O2 sensing is presented in this paper.

Plitau, Denis↗

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

The effect of water injection on nitric oxide emissions of a gas turbine combustor burning ASTM Jet-A fuel

Tests were conducted to determine the effect of water injection on oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions of a full annular, ram induction gas turbine combustor burning ASTM Jet-A fuel. The combustor was operated at conditions simulating sea-level takeoff and cruise conditions. Water at ambient temperature was injected into the combustor primary zone at water-fuel ratios up to 2. At an inlet-air temperature of 589 K (600 F) water injection decreased the NOx emission index at a constant exponential rate: NOx = NOx (o) e to the -15 W/F power (where W/F is the water-fuel ratio and NOx(o) indicates the value with no injection). The effect of increasing combustor inlet-air temperature was to decrease the effect of the water injection. Other operating variables such as pressure and reference Mach number did not appear to significantly affect the percent reduction in NOx. Smoke emissions were found to decrease with increasing water injection.

Marchionna, N. R.↗

A Combined Observational and Modeling Approach to Study Modern Dust Transport from the Patagonia Desert to East Antarctica

The understanding of present atmospheric transport processes from Southern Hemisphere (SH) landmasses to Antarctica can improve the interpretation of stratigraphic data in Antarctic ice cores. In addition, long range transport can deliver key nutrients normally not available to marine ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and may trigger or enhance primary productivity. However, there is a dearth of observational based studies of dust transport in the SH. This work aims to improve current understanding of dust transport in the SH by showing a characterization of two dust events originating in the Patagonia desert (south end of South America). The approach is based on a combined and complementary use of satellite retrievals (detectors MISR, MODIS, GLAS ,POLDER, OMI,), transport model simulation (HYSPLIT) and surface observations near the sources and aerosol measurements in Antarctica (Neumayer and Concordia sites). Satellite imagery and visibility observations confirm dust emission in a stretch of dry lakes along the coast of the Tierra del Fuego (TdF) island (approx.54deg S) and from the shores of the Colihue Huapi lake in Central Patagonia (approx.46deg S) in February 2005. Model simulations initialized by these observations reproduce the timing of an observed increase in dust concentration at the Concordia Station and some of the observed increases in atmospheric aerosol absorption (here used as a dust proxy) in the Neumayer station. The TdF sources were the largest contributors of dust at both sites. The transit times from TdF to the Neumayer and Concordia sites are 6-7 and 9-10 days respectively. Lidar observations and model outputs coincide in placing most of the dust cloud in the boundary layer and suggest significant de- position over the ocean immediately downwind. Boundary layer dust was detected as far as 1800 km from the source and approx.800 km north of the South Georgia Island over the central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. Although the analysis suggests the presence of dust at approx.1500 km SW of South Africa five days after, the limited capabilities of existing satellite platforms to differentiate between aerosol types do not permit a definitive conclusion. In addition, the model simulations show dust lifting to the free troposphere as it travels south but it could not be confirmed by the satellite observations due to cloudiness. This work demonstrates that complementary information from existing transport models, satellite and surface data can yield a consistent picture of the dust transport from the Patagonia desert to Antarctica. It also illustrates the limitation of using any of these approaches individually to characterize the transport of dust in a heavily cloudy area.

Gasso, S.↗

Parameterizations of Chromospheric Condensations in dG and dMe Model Flare Atmospheres

The origin of the near-ultraviolet and optical continuum radiation in flares is critical for understanding particle acceleration and impulsive heating in stellar atmospheres. Radiative-hydrodynamic (RHD) simulations in 1D have shown that high energy deposition rates from electron beams produce two flaring layers at T approximately 10 (exp 4) K that develop in the chromosphere: a cooling condensation (downflowing compression) and heated non-moving (stationary) flare layers just below the condensation. These atmospheres reproduce several observed phenomena in flare spectra, such as the red-wing asymmetry of the emission lines in solar flares and a small Balmer jump ratio in M dwarf flares. The high beam flux simulations are computationally expensive in 1D, and the (human) timescales for completing NLTE models with adaptive grids in 3D will likely be unwieldy for some time to come. We have developed a prescription for predicting the approximate evolved states, continuum optical depth, and emergent continuum flux spectra of RHD model flare atmospheres. These approximate prescriptions are based on an important atmospheric parameter: the column mass (m(sub ref)) at which hydrogen becomes nearly completely ionized at the depths that are approximately in steady state with the electron beam heating. Using this new modeling approach, we find that high energy flux density (>F11) electron beams are needed to reproduce the brightest observed continuum intensity in IRIS data of the 2014 March 29 X1 solar flare, and that variation in m(sub ref) from 0.001 to 0.02 g cm (exp -2) reproduces most of the observed range of the optical continuum flux ratios at the peak of M dwarf flares.

Kowalski, Adam F.↗

Tropospheric Ozone Change from 1980 to 2010 Dominated by Equatorward Redistribution of Emissions

Ozone is an important air pollutant at the surface, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have shifted from developed to developing regions. Emissions have thereby been redistributed equatorwards, where they are expected to have a stronger effect on the tropospheric ozone burden due to greater convection, reaction rates and NOx sensitivity. Here we use a global chemical transport model to simulate changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2010, and to separate the influences of changes in the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants, the magnitude of these emissions, and the global atmospheric methane concentration. We estimate that the increase in ozone burden due to the spatial distribution change slightly exceeds the combined influences of the increased emission magnitude and global methane. Emission increases in Southeast, East and South Asia may be most important for the ozone change, supported by an analysis of statistically significant increases in observed ozone above these regions. The spatial distribution of emissions dominates global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from low latitudes.

Zhang, Yuqiang↗

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F(M1)(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F(M2)(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F(M2)(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human influence↗

Advanced Turboprop Transport Aircraft Modeling for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Project

The objective of this study is to establish models for state of the art, representative regional non-electrified turboprop configurations in the 19 to 50 passenger capability range and assess performance impacts from advanced aircraft technologies. Two of these models will serve as reference baseline configurations for comparison to electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) demonstrator concepts for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project. The other two non-electrified configurations will primarily assess the impacts of advanced technologies on fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. This paper details an aircraft synthesis and performance analysis approach using the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) which is used to establish baseline performance capabilities, calibrate airplane and engine models using published manufacturer data and conduct technology sensitivity studies. Advanced technologies are selected from the categories of propulsion, aerodynamics, and flight systems. A GASP-Monte Carlo simulation framework for uncertainty propagation is used to obtain performance distributions of the expected fuel burn, weight reduction and CO₂ emissions reductions from advanced aircraft technologies. Significant fuel burn savings from application of aerodynamics and propulsion technologies was observed.

Dahlia D.V. Pham↗

Pulsar Simulations for the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Pulsars are among the prime targets for the Large Area Telescope (LAT) aboard the recently launched Fermi observatory. The LAT will study the gamma-ray Universe between 20 MeV and 300 GeV with unprecedented detail. Increasing numbers of gamma-ray pulsars are being firmly identified, yet their emission mechanisms are far from being understood. To better investigate and exploit the tAT capabilities for pulsar science. a set of new detailed pulsar simulation tools have been developed within the LAT collaboration. The structure of the pulsar simulator package (PulsarSpeccrum) is presented here. Starting from photon distributions in energy and phase obtained from theoretical calculations or phenomenological considerations, gamma-rays are generated and their arrival times at the spacecraft are determined by taking Into account effects such as barycentric effects and timing noise. Pulsars in binary systems also can be simulated given orbital parameters. We present how simulations can be used for generating a realistic set of gamma rays as observed by the LAT, focusing on some case studies that show the performance of the LAT for pulsar observations.

Razzano, M.↗

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗

Top-Down NOx Emissions of European Cities Based on the Downwind Plume of Modelled and Space-Borne Tropospheric NO2 Columns

Top-down estimates of surface NOX emissions were derived for 23 European cities based on the downwind plume decay of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) chemistry transport model (CTM) and from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals, averaged for the summertime period (April-September) during 2013. Here we show that the top-down NOX emissions derived from LOTOS-EUROS for European urban areas agree well with the bottom-up NOX emissions from the MACC-III inventory data (R(exp 2) = 0.88) driving the CTM demonstrating the potential of this method. OMI top-down NOX emissions over the 23 European cities are generally lower compared with the MACC-III emissions and their correlation is slightly lower (R(exp 2) = 0.79). The uncertainty on the derived NO2 lifetimes and NOX emissions are on average ~55% for OMI and ~63% for LOTOS-EUROS data. The downwind NO2 plume method applied on both LOTOS-EUROS and OMI tropospheric NO2 columns allows to estimate NOX emissions from urban areas, demonstrating that this is a useful method for real-time updates of urban NOX emissions with reasonable accuracy.

NOx emissions↗

Lean stability augmentation study

An analytical conceptual design study and an experimental test program were conducted to investigate techniques and develop technology for improving the lean combustion limits of premixing, prevaporizing combustors applicable to gas turbine engine main burners. The use of hot gas pilots, catalyzed flameholder elements, and heat recirculation to augment lean stability limits was considered in the conceptual design study. Tests of flameholders embodying selected concepts were conducted at a pressure of 10 arm and over a range of entrance temperatures simulating conditions to be encountered during stratospheric cruise. The tests were performed using an axisymmetric flametube test rig having a nominal diameter of 10.2 cm. A total of sixteen test configurations were examined in which lean blowout limits, pollutant emission characteristics, and combustor performance were evaluated. The use of a piloted perforated plate flameholder employing a pilot fuel flow rate equivalent to 4 percent of the total fuel flow at a simulated cruise condition resulted in a lean blowout equivalence ratio of less than 0.25 with a design point (T sub zero = 600k, Phi = 0.6) NOx emission index of less than 1.0 g/kg.

Mcvey, J. B.↗

Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population

With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.

Pierbattista, Marco↗

Stratospheric limb radiance simulations for the HCl channel of CLAES

The earthlimb radiance of the HCl detector array of the CLAES instrument is simulated in order to specify and optimize the free spectral range for the etalon used in this spectral region and to select sampling positions which facilitate the recovery of HCl profiles. Considerations entering into the limb radiance computation of each contributing species are discussed. Simulations are then presented for tangent heights of 15 to 5 km for daytime and nighttime conditions, and their significance for HCl retrievals is addressed. The simulation results indicate that the HCl (P2) feature should be observable in the earth limb emission spectrum, and that an etalon with an FSR of 12.6/cm optimally avoids interference from OH emission lines blended with the HCl feature by adjacent transmission peaks.

Mergenthaler, J. L.↗

The profile algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce accuracy better than 0.3 cm of delay. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution, which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm, excluding uncertainties caused by the radiometers and the emission model, has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and corresponding simulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual rms errors for a wide range of sites average 0.18 cm in the absence of clouds, 0.22 cm in cloudy weather, and 0.19 cm overall. In clear weather, the new algorithm's accuracy is comparable to the best that can be obtained from conventional linear algorithms, while in cloudy weather it offers a 35 percent improvement.

Robinson, Steven E.↗