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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic life-cycle carbon analysis for fast pyrolysis biofuel produced from pine residues: implications of carbon temporal effects

Abstract Background Woody biomass has been considered as a promising feedstock for biofuel production via thermochemical conversion technologies such as fast pyrolysis. Extensive Life Cycle Assessment studies have been completed to evaluate the carbon intensity of woody biomass-derived biofuels via fast pyrolysis. However, most studies assumed that woody biomass such as forest residues is a carbon–neutral feedstock like annual crops, despite a distinctive timeframe it takes to grow woody biomass. Besides, few studies have investigated the impacts of forest dynamics and the temporal effects of carbon on the overall carbon intensity of woody-derived biofuels. This study addressed such gaps by developing a life-cycle carbon analysis framework integrating dynamic modeling for forest and biorefinery systems with a time-based discounted Global Warming Potential (GWP) method developed in this work. The framework analyzed dynamic carbon and energy flows of a supply chain for biofuel production from pine residues via fast pyrolysis. Results The mean carbon intensity of biofuel given by Monte Carlo simulation across three pine growth cases ranges from 40.8–41.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) to 51.0–65.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (using the time-based discounted GWP method) when combusting biochar for energy recovery. If biochar is utilized as soil amendment, the carbon intensity reduces to 19.0–19.7 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) and 29.6–43.4 g CO 2 e MJ −1 in the time-based method. Forest growth and yields (controlled by forest management strategies) show more significant impacts on biofuel carbon intensity when the temporal effect of carbon is taken into consideration. Variation in forest operations and management (e.g., energy consumption of thinning and harvesting), on the other hand, has little impact on the biofuel carbon intensity. Conclusions The carbon temporal effect, particularly the time lag of carbon sequestration during pine growth, has direct impacts on the carbon intensity of biofuels produced from pine residues from a stand-level pine growth and management point of view. The carbon implications are also significantly impacted by the assumptions of biochar end-of-life cases and forest management strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformation and gene editing in the bioenergy grass Miscanthus

Miscanthus, a C4 member of Poaceae, is a promising perennial crop for bioenergy, renewable bioproducts, and carbon sequestration. Species of interest include nothospecies M. x giganteus and its parental species M. sacchariflorus and M. sinensis. Use of biotechnology-based procedures to genetically improve Miscanthus, to date, have only included plant transformation procedures for introduction of exogenous genes into the host genome at random, non-targeted sites. We developed gene editing procedures for Miscanthus using CRISPR/Cas9 that enabled the mutation of a specific (targeted) endogenous gene to knock out its function. Classified as paleo-allopolyploids (duplicated ancient Sorghum-like DNA plus chromosome fusion event), design of guide RNAs (gRNAs) for Miscanthus needed to target both homeologs and their alleles to account for functional redundancy. Prior research in Zea mays demonstrated that editing the lemon white1 (lw1) gene, involved in chlorophyll and carotenoid biosynthesis, via CRISPR/Cas9 yielded pale green/yellow, striped or white leaf phenotypes making lw1 a promising target for visual confirmation of editing in other species. Using sequence information from both Miscanthus and sorghum, orthologs of maize lw1 were identified; a multi-step screening approach was used to select three gRNAs that could target homeologs of lw1. Embryogenic calli of M. sacchariflorus, M. sinensis and M. x giganteus were transformed via particle bombardment (biolistics) or Agrobacterium tumefaciens introducing the Cas9 gene and three gRNAs to edit lw1. Leaves on edited Miscanthus plants displayed the same phenotypes noted in maize. Sanger sequencing confirmed editing; deletions in lw1 ranged from 1 to 26 bp in length, and one deletion (433 bp) encompassed two target sites. Confocal microscopy verified lack of autofluorescence (chlorophyll) in edited leaves/sectors. We developed procedures for gene editing via CRISPR/Cas9 in Miscanthus and, to the best of our knowledge, are the first to do so. This included five genotypes representing three Miscanthus species. Designed gRNAs targeted all copies of lw1 (homeologous copies and their alleles); results also confirmed lw1 made a good editing target in species other than Z. mays. The ability to target specific loci to enable endogenous gene editing presents a new avenue for genetic improvement of this important biomass crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial community dynamics and coexistence in a sulfide-driven phototrophic bloom

Background: Lagoons are common along coastlines worldwide and are important for biogeochemical element cycling, coastal biodiversity, coastal erosion protection and blue carbon sequestration. These ecosystems are frequently disturbed by weather, tides, and human activities. Here, we investigated a shallow lagoon in New England. The brackish ecosystem releases hydrogen sulfide particularly upon physical disturbance, causing blooms of anoxygenic sulfur-oxidizing phototrophs. To study the habitat, microbial community structure, assembly and function we carried out in situ experiments investigating the bloom dynamics over time. Results: Phototrophic microbial mats and permanently or seasonally stratified water columns commonly contain multiple phototrophic lineages that coexist based on their light, oxygen and nutrient preferences. We describe similar coexistence patterns and ecological niches in estuarine planktonic blooms of phototrophs. The water column showed steep gradients of oxygen, pH, sulfate, sulfide, and salinity. The upper part of the bloom was dominated by aerobic phototrophic Cyanobacteria, the middle and lower parts by anoxygenic purple sulfur bacteria (Chromatiales) and green sulfur bacteria (Chlorobiales), respectively. We show stable coexistence of phototrophic lineages from five bacterial phyla and present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) of two uncultured Chlorobaculum and Prosthecochloris species. In addition to genes involved in sulfur oxidation and photopigment biosynthesis the MAGs contained complete operons encoding for terminal oxidases. The metagenomes also contained numerous contigs affiliating with Microviridae viruses, potentially affecting Chlorobi. Our data suggest a short sulfur cycle within the bloom in which elemental sulfur produced by sulfide-oxidizing phototrophs is most likely reduced back to sulfide by Desulfuromonas sp. Conclusions: The release of sulfide creates a habitat selecting for anoxygenic sulfur-oxidizing phototrophs, which in turn create a niche for sulfur reducers. Strong syntrophism between these guilds apparently drives a short sulfur cycle that may explain the rapid development of the bloom. The fast growth and high biomass yield of Chlorobi-affiliated organisms implies that the studied lineages of green sulfur bacteria can thrive in hypoxic habitats. This oxygen tolerance is corroborated by oxidases found in MAGs of uncultured Chlorobi. The findings improve our understanding of the ecology and ecophysiology of anoxygenic phototrophs and their impact on the coupled biogeochemical cycles of sulfur and carbon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic response to paleo-sand dunes in the Nugget Sandstone Formation, southwestern Wyoming

We have analyzed a 3D seismic survey acquired for a carbon sequestration project on top of the Moxa Arch in southwestern Wyoming. We observed a zone of discontinuous reflectors on vertical slices of seismic amplitude volume, whereas, the northwest–southeast lineations were observed on the time slices. We performed a seismic to well tie that suggested that the lineations occur within the Nugget Sandstone. The Nugget Sandstone is an eolian sandstone deposit of Early Jurassic age, deposited as a subtropical dune field, and equivalent to the Navajo Sandstone of southwestern Utah. Petrophysical analysis indicates that the Nugget Sandstone is dominated by clean sandstone (70%–80%), whereas evaporites, including halite and anhydrite, are present in certain zones. Previous outcrop studies on the Navajo Sandstone indicate the wind direction to be predominantly northeast–southwest. Seismic attributes, including coherence and curvature, displayed on stratal slices within the Nugget Sandstone interval indicate the presence of lineations in the northwest–southeast direction with irregular spacing. These lineations are approximately perpendicular to the inferred dominant wind direction. We computed the dominant wind direction from the average azimuth of the lineations as seen on the curvature attribute in the Nugget Sandstone interval. Geological feature: Eolian sand dunes with interdunal evaporites Seismic appearance: Parallel lineations with irregular spacing on seismic attribute horizon slices Alternative interpretations: Canyons at continental slopes; slope failures Features with a similar appearance: Marine bars; contourites Formation: The Nugget Sandstone — equivalent to the Navajo Sandstone Age: Early Jurassic Location: Moxa Arch, Wyoming Seismic data: Obtained by the University of Wyoming with U.S. DOE funding Contributors: Dhruv Agrawal, Brady Lujan, Sumit Verma, Shuvajit Bhattacharya, and Subhashis Mallick Analysis tools: Coherence and curvature attributes; seismic inversion; petrophysical inversion

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗
DOE OSTI2020

BEPAM Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel"

This dataset consists of various input data that are used in the GAMS model. All the data are in the format of .inc which can be read within GAMS or Notepad. Main data sources include: acreage data (acre), crop budget data ($/acre), crop yield data (e.g. bushel/acre), Soil carbon sequestration data (KgCO2/ha/yr). Model details can be found in the "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel" and GAMS model package. ## File Description (1) GAMS Model.zip: This includes all the input files and scripts for running the model (2) Table*.csv: These files include the data from the tables in the manuscript (3) Figure2_3_4.csv: This contains the data used to create the figures in the manuscript (4) BaselineResults.csv: This includes a summary of the model results. (5) SensitivityResults_*.csv: Model results from the various sensitivity analyses performed (6) LUC_emission.csv: land use change emissions by crop reporting district for changes of pasturelands to annual crops.

Anticipated baseline approach↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for Transformation and Gene Editing in the Bioenergy Grass Miscanthus

Miscanthus, a C4 member of the family Poaceae, is a promising perennial crop for bioenergy, renewable bioproducts, and carbon sequestration. Species of interest include nothospecies Miscanthus x giganteus and its parental species M. sacchariflorus and M. sinensis . Use of biotechnology-based procedures to genetically improve miscanthus, to date, have only included plant transformation procedures for introduction of exogenous genes into the host genome at random, non-targeted sites.

Biomass Analytics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wavefront shaping with a Hadamard basis for scattering soil imaging

Here, soil is a scattering medium that inhibits imaging of plant-microbial-mineral interactions that are essential to plant health and soil carbon sequestration. However, optical imaging in the complex medium of soil has been stymied by the seemingly intractable problems of scattering and contrast. Here, we develop a wavefront shaping method based on adaptive stochastic parallel gradient descent optimization with a Hadamard basis to focus light through soil mineral samples. Our approach allows a sparse representation of the wavefront with reduced dimensionality for the optimization. We further divide the used Hadamard basis set into subsets and optimize a certain subset at once. Simulation and experimental optimization results demonstrate our method has an approximately seven times higher convergence rate and overall better performance compared to that with optimizing all pixels at once. The proposed method can benefit other high-dimensional optimization problems in adaptive optics and wavefront shaping.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chromosome duplication causes premature aging via defects in ribosome quality control

Down syndrome, caused by an extra copy of Chromosome 21, causes lifelong problems. One of the most common phenotypes among people with Down syndrome is premature aging, including early tissue decline, neurodegeneration, and shortened life span. Yet the reasons for premature systemic aging are a mystery and difficult to study in humans. Here we show that chromosome amplification in wild yeast also produces premature aging and shortens life span. Chromosome duplication disrupts nutrient-induced cell-cycle arrest, entry into quiescence, and cellular health during chronological aging, across genetic background and independent of which chromosome is amplified. Using a genomic screen, we discovered that these defects are due in part to aneuploidy-induced dysfunction in Ribosome Quality Control (RQC). We show that aneuploids entering quiescence display aberrant ribosome profiles, accumulate RQC intermediates, and harbor an increased load of protein aggregates compared to euploid cells. Although they maintain proteasome activity, aneuploids also show signs of ubiquitin dysregulation and sequestration into foci. Remarkably, inducing ribosome stalling in euploids produces similar aging phenotypes, while up-regulating limiting RQC subunits or poly-ubiquitin alleviates many of the aneuploid defects. We propose that the increased translational load caused by having too many mRNAs accelerates a decline in translational fidelity, contributing to premature aging.

Aneuploidy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riparian vegetation composition and diversity shows resilience following cessation of livestock grazing in northeastern Oregon, USA

Riparian ecosystem restoration has been accomplished through exclusion of livestock using corridor fencing along hundreds of kilometers of streams in the western United States, for the benefit of riparian-obligate wildlife and endangered fishes. Yet, there are limited scientific studies that have evaluated more than short-term shifts in vegetation composition and diversity at a single location or handful of locations following grazing. We sampled riparian vegetation composition along 11-paired grazed and ungrazed (exclosed) stream reaches in northeastern Oregon. Exclosure ages ranged from 2 to >30 years and grazing treatments varied from light grazing every one out of three years to heavy season-long grazing. Species richness and diversity was higher in the ungrazed reaches (p = 0.002). The abundance of native sedges ( Carex spp.) and broad-leaved forbs were also significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater in ungrazed areas. In contrast, exotic species adapted to grazing such as Poa pratensis and Trifolium repens were more abundant in grazed stream reaches. The prevalence of hydrophytic species significantly increased (p ≤ 0.01) in ungrazed reaches, (based on wetland species indicator scores), indicating that wetland-dominated communities within the ungrazed stream reaches were replacing ones adapted to drier environments. The increased abundance of facultative and wetland-obligate species in ungrazed reaches compared to grazed reaches suggests that livestock grazing exacerbates those climate change effects also leading to warmer and drier conditions. Further, riparian-obligate shrub cover along the streambank was higher in 7 of 8 exclosures that were older than 5 years (p = 0.05). As a restoration approach, the inherent resilience of riparian ecosystems exhibited in ungrazed riparian zones suggest positive feedbacks to other beneficial ecosystem processes such as increased species and habitat diversity, increased carbon sequestration, enhanced allochthonous inputs and greater sediment retention, that would affect the aquatic and terrestrial biota, water quality, and stream morphology.

Kauffman, J. Boone (ORCID:0000000290202815)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intraspecific variability in plant and soil chemical properties in a common garden plantation of the energy crop Populus

Optimizing crops for synergistic soil carbon (C) sequestration can enhance CO 2 removal in food and bioenergy production systems. Yet, in bioenergy systems, we lack an understanding of how intraspecies variation in plant traits correlates with variation in soil biogeochemistry. This knowledge gap is exacerbated by both the heterogeneity and difficulty of measuring belowground traits. Here, we provide initial observations of C and nutrients in soil and root and stem tissues from a common garden field site of diverse, natural variant, Populus trichocarpa genotypes—established for aboveground biomass-to-biofuels research. Our goal was to explore the value of such field sites for evaluating genotype-specific effects on soil C, which ultimately informs the potential for optimizing bioenergy systems for both aboveground productivity and belowground C storage. To do this, we investigated variation in chemical traits at the scale of individual trees and genotypes and we explored correlations among stem, root, and soil samples. We observed substantial variation in soil chemical properties at the scale of individual trees and specific genotypes. While correlations among elements were observed both within and among sample types (soil, stem, root), above-belowground correlations were generally poor. We did not observe genotype-specific patterns in soil C in the top 10 cm, but we did observe genotype associations with soil acid-base chemistry (soil pH and base cations) and bulk density. Finally, a specific phenotype of interest (high vs low lignin) was unrelated to soil biogeochemistry. Our pilot study supports the usefulness of decade-old, genetically-variable, Populus bioenergy field test plots for understanding plant genotype effects on soil properties. Finally, this study contributes to the advancement of sampling methods and baseline data for Populus systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Further species- and region-specific efforts will enhance C predictability across scales in bioenergy systems and, ultimately, accelerate the identification of genotypes that optimize yield and carbon storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nutrient and carbon concentrations in dated soil cores at US-OWC Ameriflux wetland site (OWC NERR)

Soil cores were sampled at the Old Woman Creek (OWC) National Estuarine Research Reserve at the south shore of Lake Erie, near Huron, Ohio, USA. OWC is a temperate mineral soil marsh. We dated the soil cores using lead isotope analysis and measured the concentrations of carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) throughout the core depths. We analyzed 36 cores, sampled along three transects at areas of the wetland with different hydrological regimes. Each transect included three coring sites at different water depth categories (shallow, intermediate deep) with four core samples per coring site. The data can be used to determine the carbon sequestration rates and nutrient accumulation rates, at multiple locations throughout OWC wetland.Dataset, in csv format, with data variables in columns, and different cores and core depths slices in rows, includes results from 36 sediment cores (0-30 cm depth) taken at 9 locations (4 replicates at each location) along 3 gradients of water depth (shallow, intermediate, deep), each at a different hydrologic location (outflow, backflow, middle). At each depth slice within a core, we provide depth, date (using 210Pb), bulk density, and the concentrations of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, d13C, and d15N.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model code and data: biomass allocation adjustments induced by elevated CO2 and warming in a C3 brackish marsh, 2017-2022, Maryland

This dataset and R script accompany the published paper Bruns et al. (2024) in Geophysical Research Letters. The data are from the first six years of a field manipulation of whole-ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 experiment (Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment, or SMARTX) in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland (GCReW), a brackish, microtidal wetland site on a subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay. These data were generated to understand how warming and elevated CO2 interact to structure ecosystem-level responses to global change, particularly in terms of carbon sequestration. The dataset covers 2017-2022 and includes peak annual above ground biomass, annual belowground fine root productivity, and porewater NH4 for each experimental plot. The overall experiment is replicated in two locations on the marsh, a lower elevation zone dominated the C3 sedge S. Americanus and a higher elevation plot dominated by the C4 species. This paper and its data release is only for the C3 plot. Variable descriptions for data file is available in variable_descriptions.pdf. The R script Bruns_et_al_2024_GRL_make_figures.Rmd contains model code and other scripts used to generate all paper figures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Manuscript model outputs, model source code, and figure scripts: The role of geomorphology in mediating biomass allocation impacts on salt-marsh resilience and carbon accumulation

This data package provides model source code (C++), model outputs, and figure generation scripts (R) needed to reproduce the following manuscript: Bruns, Nicholas E., Genevieve L. Noyce, and Matthew L. Kirwan. "The Role of Geomorphology in Mediating Biomass Allocation Impacts on Salt-Marsh Resilience and Carbon Accumulation." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 327 (December 2025): 109549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109549. This manuscript investigates how geomorphology mediates the impact of biomass allocation shifts on salt marsh persistence and carbon (C) sequestration under sea level rise. We use a 1-D soil-column model (Kirwan and Mudd 2012) to perform experiments across a range of static root:shoot ratios (RSR = 1-4) spanning observed values. The model explicitly simulates interactions between tidal inundation, productivity, inorganic sediment deposition, and organic matter accumulation. Experiments determine whether geomorphic feedbacks amplify, dampen, or leave unchanged the ecosystem response to biomass allocation shifts. A first experiment uses constant sea level rise (2.5 mm/yr) to examine equilibrium dynamics and their influence on carbon accumulation rates across different suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A second set of experiments calculates threshold sea level rise rates for marsh drowning across RSR and SSC combinations. Final experiments apply accelerating sea level rise scenarios (2000-2200) derived from NOAA projections (Sweet et al. 2022) to generate an envelope of expected responses, quantifying the importance of biomass allocation shifts on marsh carbon accumulation and persistence. All experiments are repeated across SSC ranging from 5-50 mg/L to investigate how these interactions vary in micro-tidal marshes with different sediment supplies. Package contents: * README.txt with detailed description of package contents and instructions for reproducing manuscript figures and model outputs * R scripts for generating all manuscript figures * C++ baseline model code from Kirwan and Mudd (2012) * C++ source code for 4 experimental model variants used in the manuscript, extending above baseline code * Model input files (.csv, .txt) including sea level rise scenarios * Model output files (.txt) used in manuscript analyses Temporal coverage: Model simulations span years 1900-2200, with accelerating sea level rise scenarios for 2000-2200. Key variables: Root:shoot ratio, suspended sediment concentration, carbon accumulation rate, vertical accretion rate, marsh elevation, inundation depth, threshold sea level rise rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗