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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Thermal Plumbing System of Stromboli Volcano, Aeolian Islands (Italy) Inferred From Electrical Conductivity and Induced Polarization Tomography

Abstract We performed the first 3D island‐scale tomography of the electrical conductivity of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) using 2D acquisition lines (37.2 km) and a total of 18,880 measurements and 2,402 unique electrode locations. This 3D data set was inverted using a Gauss‐Newton algorithm, parallel‐processing on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh containing 678,420 finite‐element nodes and 3,580,145 elements to account for the topography of the volcanic island. The tomogram exhibits a conductive body (10 −2 –1.0 S m −1 ) consistent with the location of CO 2 and temperature anomalies observed at the ground surface. It corresponds to the hydrothermal system with high electrical conductivity associated with alteration. In order to confirm this interpretation, a 2.5D large‐scale induced polarization tomography was performed crossing the volcano. The joint interpretation of the conductivity and normalized chargeability is done with a petrophysical model previously tested and verified at both shield‐ and strato‐volcanoes. This model implies that alteration (through the effect of the cation exchange capacity associated with clay minerals and zeolites) plays a strong role in both controlling the electrical conductivity and normalized chargeability at Stromboli volcano. A temperature tomogram, derived from the geoelectrical measurements, is consistent with surface temperature anomalies and the Very Long Period (VLP) seismicity related to the mild‐explosive activity. This survey displays at 600 m a.s.l. a lateral shift in the highest temperature location, also corresponding to the source of VLP seismicity. Structural boundaries have a major role in the hottest hydrothermal fluids rising below the active crater terrace of Stromboli volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the 2021 Milford, Utah earthquake swarm: Enhanced earthquake catalog and migration patterns

An earthquake swarm occurred in Spring 2021 in south-central Utah near the town of Milford. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations located 125 earthquakes between March 19 and May 10 with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.2. We implement a matched-filter technique in order to identify additional earthquakes that went undetected during the routine network location. The 125 network-located earthquakes are used as templates and are cross-correlated with continuous data for the dates Feb 17—June 10. This time period corresponds to approximately 1 month before the earthquake swarm began through 1 month after it ended. For the matched-filter analysis, we rely heavily on station FOR1, which is located within 5 km of most template events. Four other stations within 20–30 km of most template events provide a supplement to the closest station. The matched-filter implementation results in the detection of over 600 earthquakes in addition to the original 125 catalog events. This is one of the largest swarms ever recorded in Utah, and no previous large swarms have been recorded in this location. We use HypoDD to obtain relative double-difference locations of the catalog events. Both routine locations and HypoDD relocations of the catalog events suggest a fault dipping west beneath the mountain range, opposite of typical Basin and Range normal faults that dip beneath alluvial valleys. Moment tensors for the largest five events show normal faulting consistent with the west-dipping fault seen in the seismicity. Hydrothermal features in the area, including a geothermal power plant, suggest that fluids may be a contributing factor to the earthquake swarm triggering. We examine the role of fluids by exploring bounds on diffusion parameters and investigating spatial migration characteristics of the swarm seismicity. We conclude that this swarm is the result of heterogenous stress conditions in a prefractured region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PLATO hare-and-hounds exercise: asteroseismic model fitting of main-sequence solar-like pulsators

ABSTRACT Asteroseismology is a powerful tool to infer fundamental stellar properties. The use of these asteroseismic-inferred properties in a growing number of astrophysical contexts makes it vital to understand their accuracy. Consequently, we performed a hare-and-hounds exercise where the hares simulated data for six artificial main-sequence stars and the hounds inferred their properties based on different inference procedures. To mimic a pipeline such as that planned for the PLATO mission, all hounds used the same model grid. Some stars were simulated using the physics adopted in the grid, others a different one. The maximum relative differences found (in absolute value) between the inferred and true values of the mass, radius, and age were 4.32, 1.33, and 11.25 per cent, respectively. The largest systematic differences in radius and age were found for a star simulated assuming gravitational settling, not accounted for in the model grid, with biases of −0.88 per cent (radius) and 8.66 per cent (age). For the mass, the most significant bias (−3.16 per cent) was found for a star with a helium enrichment ratio outside the grid range. Moreover, an ∼7 per cent dispersion in age was found when adopting different prescriptions for the surface corrections or shifting the classical observations by ±1σ. The choice of the relative weight given to the classical and seismic constraints also impacted significantly the accuracy and precision of the results. Interestingly, only a few frequencies were required to achieve accurate results on the mass and radius. For the age the same was true when at least one l = 2 mode was considered.

Cunha, M. S. (ORCID:0000000182377343)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust In-Situ Strain Measurements to Monitor CO 2 Storage

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate robust instrumentation to monitor the in-situ strain tensor in order to improve the reliability and security of CO 2 storage in geologic formations. We met the original goals of the project and the major overarching accomplishment is the advancement of strain tensor monitoring from an intriguing concept to a commercially available technology with a solid foundation of novel instruments supported by theoretical analyses and validation experiments. The main accomplishments of the project are summarized below. We designed, built and evaluated nine new optical fiber strainmeters and tiltmeters using Michelson interferometers to measure deformation with ultra-high resolution at both shallow and deep point locations in the subsurface. These are the robust strainmeters that motivated the title of the project. We designed, built and evaluated a novel method of measuring distributed strain in optical fibers with nanostrain resolution, and cm-scale location, and sampling into the seismic band. The new method is called Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interfereometry (CMPI). CMPI technology has advantages over existing commercial DAS and DSS methods. We developed and demonstrated capabilities to deploy instruments in the field and used them to measure strain caused by ambient signals like barometric pressure and tides, as well as induced signals like surface loading and pore pressure changes from pumping tests. We deployed a working strainmeter at 1,700 ft depth, slightly above an active reservoir. This is to our knowledge the greatest depth a strainmeter has been deployed and the techniques we used can readily be extended to greater depths. Optical fiber borehole tensor strainmeter techology was advanced from a TRL 4 at the start, to a TRL of 7 at the conclusion of the project. The project included advances in simulations and theoretical analyses. We developed and demonstrated a computational workflow that uses machine learning to reduce the computational requirements and make it practical to use Bayesian inversion to solve large numerical poroelastic analyses needed to interpret strain tensor field data. We evaluated the strain tensor fields and time series that would be caused by leaks of CO 2 or other fluids from reservoirs. These simulations demonstrated that signals from leaks could be measured with instruments developed for the project, opening a potentially new method for ensuring storage security. We showed that strains in caprock can be used to estimate pressure in a reservoir. This avoids the need to drill monitoring wells into the reservoir, and it expands the capabilities of monitoring in the caprock. The project includes a derivation and application of a novel analytical solution to the strains in the vicinity of a pressurized poroelastic inclusion. This solution explains field data measured during injeciton tests at the North Avant Field, and it will simplify future interpretation of strain tensor data. The project included a broad range of experiments, and of the most significant is the characterization of the strain tensor at an array three strainmeters during six injection tests at the North Avant Field, Oklahoma. This demonstrated repeatability of the strain signal measured by the new instruments developed for the project, and it showed similarities between the strain signal at shallow depths and pressure in the underlying reservoir. We also demonstrated that useful strain data can be measured at reservoir depths. This confirms that strain tensor data can be measured throughout the caprock over a reservoir. The project demonstrated the feasibility of using the strain tensor and distributed strain measured in caprock during a variety of different well tests where the pumping rate was constant, sinusoidal and positive, or a periodic square wave with zero net rate. This further strengthens the validity of using strain data to characterize reservoirs and aquifers. We also demonstrated that strain caused be fluctuations of air pressure and water pressure in the vadose zone can be measured and interpreted, suggesting that high resolution distributed strain measurements hold promise for monitoring the vadose zone. The project partially supported nine graduate students in the Environmental Engineering, Hydrogeology, Electrical Engineering programs at Clemson University. The research was described in nine journal papers, 23 talks and conference abstracts. Additional journal papers are in preparation. A new company called Tensora was started to provide strainmeter technology for commercial applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Based Analysis of the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas Earthquakes: A Tale of Two Sequences

Here, we revisited the June 2010 to October 2011 Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas using PhaseNet, a deep neural network trained to pick P and S arrival times. We applied PhaseNet to continuous waveform data and used phase association and hypocenter relocation to locate nearly 90,000 events. Our catalog suggests that the sequence consists of two adjacent earthquake sequences on the same fault and that the second sequence may be associated with the wastewater disposal well to the west of the Guy-Greenbrier Fault, rather than the wells to the north and the east that were previously implicated. We find that each sequence is composed of many small clusters that exhibit diffusion along the fault at shorter timescales. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning-based earthquake catalog development is now feasible and will yield new insights into earthquake behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Index Models for Exploration Datasets at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), index models needed to be developed to map values in geoscientific exploration datasets to favorability index values. This GDR submission includes those index models. Index models were created by binning values in exploration datasets into chunks based on their favorability, and then applying a number between 0 and 5 to each chunk, where 0 represents very unfavorable data values and 5 represents very favorable data values. To account for differences in how exploration methods are used to detect each play component, separate index models are produced for each exploration method for each component of each play type. Index models were created using histograms of the distributions of each exploration dataset in combination with literature and input from experts about what combinations of geophysical, geological, and geochemical signatures are considered favorable at Newberry. This is in attempt to create similar sized bins based on the current understanding of how different anomalies map to favorable areas for the different types of geothermal plays (i.e., conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). For example, an area of partial melt would likely appear as an area of low density, high conductivity, low vp, and high vp/vs. This means that these target anomalies would be given high (4 or 5) index values for the purpose of imaging the heat source. To account for differences in how exploration methods are used to detect each play component, separate index models are produced for each exploration method for each component of each play type. Index models were produced for the following datasets: - Geologic model - Alteration model - vp/vs - vp - vs - Temperature model - Seismicity (density*magnitude) - Density - Resistivity - Fault distance - Earthquake cutoff depth model

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stable Rate of Slip Along the Karakax Section of the Altyn Tagh Fault from Observation of Interglacial and Postglacial Offset Morphology and Surface Dating

Digital elevation maps obtained using TanDEM-X and Pleiades data combined with newly obtained surface age estimates using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) and optically simulated luminescence (OSL) methods are used to quantify the slip rate along the western section of the Altyn Tagh Fault in southern Xinjiang. The reconstruction of the conical shape of massive alluvial fans inferred to be from the Eemian (115±7 ka) from CRN dating shows consistent left-lateral offsets of 300±20 m, yielding a slip rate of 2.6±0.3 mm/year. Successive episodes of incision have left cut terraces inset in wide canyons, 10–25 m below the fans' surface. The incision was followed by the deposition of a broad terrace of early Holocene age, which is reincised by modern stream channels. Near the village of Shanxili, a 200 m wide valley is partially dammed by a shutter ridge displaced by the fault. A fill terrace deposited upstream from the ridge has an OSL age of 8.8±0.6 ka. The 23±2 m offset of the riser incising the terrace indicates a minimum postdepositional movement on the fault, yielding a Holocene rate of 2.6±0.5 mm/year, consistent with the 115-ka average slip rate. Furthermore, scarp degradation analysis using mass diffusion reveals a nonlinear relationship between fault displacement and degradation coefficient along the progressively exposed fault scarp, a pattern suggesting either seismic clustering or variable diffusion rate since the Eemian. Together with the Gozha Co-Longmu Co fault to the south, the Karakax section of the Altyn Tagh Fault contributes to the eastward movement of the western corner of Tibet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control Mechanisms for Self‐Sealing in Activated Clay‐Rich Faults Through Controlled Hydraulic Injection Experiment

Abstract In a high‐pressure injection fault activation experiment conducted at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland, the transmissivity of the Opalinus Clay fault significantly increased due to opening and shearing. The fluid injection, spanning a few hours, generated a 10 m radius fault activation patch. Subsequent pressure pulse tests conducted bi‐weekly for a year revealed the gradual return of fault transmissivity to its initial state. The study utilized fluid pressure decay analysis, optical fiber monitoring, continuous active source seismic measurements and borehole displacement sensors for measuring fault displacements. The fault zone exhibited a dilation of approximately 1.4 mm, associated with both normal and tangential movements during activation, resulting in a sudden transmissivity increase from 1 × 10 −12 to 3.2 × 10 −7 m 2 /s. Early post‐activation, transient compaction and the subsequent slow compaction were observed, transitioning to an extension regime. The pressure pulse tests demonstrated a rapid transmissivity drop by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 10 days, followed by a gradual and less pronounced decrease. Plastic shear and compaction dominated the transmissivity evolution until 70 days after injection ended, followed by a period where additional factors, such as clay mineral swelling, influenced the behavior. Extrapolation suggested a sealing process taking at least 50 years after the initial activation. Plain Language Summary A field‐scale fault activation experiment offers valuable insights into the elasto‐plastic processes governing the sealing of shale faults. The experiment reveals a rapid increase in the fault's transmissivity by approximately five orders of magnitude during activation. Subsequent observations show a gradual transmissivity decrease by about three orders of magnitude post‐activation, with slow long‐term plastic shear and compaction of the fault competing against secondary processes, notably clay mineral swelling. All conceptual models employed to interpret these field data converge on the estimation that the fault's return to its initial low transmissivity state would require a minimum of 50 years. Key Points High‐pressure injection fault activation experiment at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory Continuous transmissivity measurements record self‐sealing inside a clay‐rich fault zone Transmissivity undergoes a phase of domination by slow plastic compaction and shearing during the initial post‐activation period, with mineral swelling exerting its influence over the long term

Guglielmi, Yves↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating deep neural networks with full-waveform inversion: Reparameterization, regularization, and uncertainty quantification

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an accurate imaging approach for modeling the velocity structure by minimizing the misfit between recorded and predicted seismic waveforms. However, the strong nonlinearity of FWI resulting from fitting oscillatory waveforms can trap the optimization in local minima. We have adopted a neural-network-based full-waveform inversion (NNFWI) method that integrates deep neural networks with FWI by representing the velocity model with a generative neural network. Neural networks can naturally introduce spatial correlations as regularization to the generated velocity model, which suppresses noise in the gradients and mitigates local minima. Furthermore, the velocity model generated by neural networks is input to the same partial differential equation (PDE) solvers used in conventional FWI. The gradients of the neural networks and PDEs are calculated using automatic differentiation, which back propagates gradients through the acoustic PDEs and neural network layers to update the weights of the generative neural network. Experiments on 1D velocity models, the Marmousi model, and the 2004 BP model determine that NNFWI can mitigate local minima, especially for imaging high-contrast features such as salt bodies, and it significantly improves the inversion in the presence of noise. Adding dropout layers to the neural network model also allows analyzing the uncertainty of the inversion results through Monte Carlo dropout. NNFWI opens a new pathway to combine deep learning and FWI for exploiting the characteristics of deep neural networks and the high accuracy of PDE solvers. Because NNFWI does not require extra training data and optimization loops, it provides an attractive and straightforward alternative to conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fiber-Optic Sensing for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring, and Early Warning

The use of fiber‐optic sensing systems in seismology has exploded in the past decade. Despite an ever‐growing library of ground‐breaking studies, questions remain about the potential of fiber‐optic sensing technologies as tools for advancing if not revolutionizing earthquake‐hazards‐related research, monitoring, and early warning systems. A working group convened to explore these topics; we comprehensively examined the application of fiber optics in various aspects of earthquake hazards, encompassing earthquake source processes, crustal imaging, data archiving, and technological challenges. There is great potential for fiber‐optic systems to advance earthquake monitoring and understanding, but to fully unlock their capabilities requires continued progress in key areas of research and development, including instrument testing and validation, increased dynamic range for applications focused on larger earthquakes, and continued improvement in subsurface and source imaging methods. A key current stumbling block results from the lack of clear data archiving requirements, and we propose an initial strategy that balances data volume requirements with preserving key data for a broad range of future studies. In addition, we demonstrate the potential for fiber‐optic sensing to impact monitoring efforts by documenting the data completeness in a number of long‐term experiments. Finally, we outline the features of a instrument testing facility that would enable progress toward reliable and standardized distributed acoustic sensing data. Overcoming these current obstacles would facilitate progress in fiber‐optic sensing and unlock its potential application to a broad range of earthquake hazard problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local Explosion Detection and Infrasound Localization by Reverse Time Migration Using 3-D Finite-Difference Wave Propagation

Infrasound data are routinely used to detect and locate volcanic and other explosions, using both arrays and single sensor networks. However, at local distances (< km) topography often complicates acoustic propagation, resulting in inaccurate acoustic travel times leading to biased source locations when assuming straight-line propagation. Here we present a new method, termed Reverse Time Migration-Finite-Difference Time Domain (RTM-FDTD), that integrates numerical modeling into the standard RTM back-projection process. Travel time information is computed across the entire potential source grid via FDTD modeling to incorporate the effects of topography. The waveforms are then back-projected and stacked at each grid point, with the stack maximum corresponding to the likely source. We apply our method to three volcanoes with different network configurations, source-receiver distances, and topography. At Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu, RTM-FDTD locates explosions within ~20 m of the source and differentiates between multiple vents. RTM-FDTD produces a more accurate location for the two Yasur subcraters than standard RTM and doubles the number of detected events. At Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, RTM-FDTD locates the source within 50 m of the active vent despite notable topographic blocking. The RTM-FDTD location is similar to that from the Time Reversal Mirror method, but is more computationally efficient. Lastly, at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, RTM and RTM-FDTD both produce realistic source locations (<50 m) for ground-coupled airwaves recorded on a four-station seismic network. We show that RTM is an effective method to detect and locate infrasonic sources across a variety of scenarios, and by integrating numerical modeling, RTM-FDTD produces more accurate source locations and increases the detection capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Experimental Science Plan

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Program is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve the United States’ explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to low-yield and potentially evasive underground nuclear testing. The LYNM Program focuses on researching, discovering, and exploiting unique and useful signatures, from all available technologies and sensors (e.g., seismic, acoustic, electromagnetic, gases, and particulates (both stable and radioactive)). Four Department of Energy laboratories participate in LYNM and together are referred to as the ‘quad-lab’. The R&D program execution is performed under NNSA defined structures known as “ventures”. Four science ventures were established: 1) Explosion Source Functions; 2) Containment of Low-Yield Underground Tests; 3) Local Signatures; 4) Dynamic Monitoring Networks. To organize and execute the large field scale experiment a fifth venture was established: 5) Physics Experiment One (PE-1). As part of the LYNM Program, a series of experiments are planned at various scales and levels of venture involvement. These vary from those that involve a subset of labs and/or LYNM ventures (e.g., small experiments), to full quad-lab LYNM Program field-scale integrated experiments. Such experiments may involve chemical explosions with tracer materials or other means of simulating the expected signals from a nuclear explosion. The LYNM Program does not conduct actual nuclear explosions. Since 1992, the U.S. has observed a moratorium on underground nuclear explosions. This document is intended to provide the underlying scientific basis for the LYNM planned experimental work. Each specific LYNM experiment will develop a goals, objectives, and requirements (GOR) plan following the guidance in this document. The LYNM technical staff will define the numbers and types of experiments required over the course of the Program based on technical needs and within funding constraints. As with any scientific experiment series, the number and types of experiments may change based upon the experimental results obtained. An experiment that agrees with models/codes/software signature predictions may need fewer repetitions/variations, depending upon the level of statistical rigor desired, as compared to one in which the predictions and experimental data do not match. The large LYNM field-scale integrated experiments require the longest lead-time for planning, and these are discussed in more detail near the end of this document.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for a Single Holocene Paleoseismic Event on the Pajarito Fault, Northern New Mexico

Low-slip rate fault systems tend to be less studied than their high-slip rate counterparts, and paleoseismic techniques used to study them may pose challenges in interpretation that differ from high-slip rate systems. A good example of this is the Pajarito fault system (PFS), a normal fault complex within the Rio Grande rift. Despite numerous previous paleoseismic trenching studies conducted on the PFS between 1990 and 2003, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its Holocene paleoseismic history, particularly for the primary Pajarito fault (PF). To further clarify the PF paleoseismic history, we present data from paleoseismic investigations of 6 trenches at 3 distinct locations along the PF. Though the totality of the age and structural data obtained in this study is complex and not entirely consistent with any one interpretation, a single Holocene paleoearthquake occurring younger than ∼1,600 to 2,300 kcal yr BP is the simplest interpretation. It is possible that the PF records two Holocene events, with a penultimate event 6.9–2.4 kcal yr BP event and the aforementioned most recent event (MRE) between 2.3 and 1.6 kcal yr BP. However, only a single wall of one trench, out of a total of 12 walls in our 6 trenches, provides evidence supporting that interpretation. This study finds evidence of a single late Holocene paleoseismic event on the PF and sparse evidence for 2 Holocene paleoseismic events on the PF and highlights the benefits of logging multiple trench walls to better understand the complexity that results from this low-slip rate, low-deposition-rate fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Soil Properties and Input Motion on Site Amplification Using Validated Nonlinear Soil Model

Here, three-dimensional (3-D) nonlinear site response analyses are conducted using finite element models of actual soil profiles from ten nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in the United States to investigate the effects of soil properties and input motions on site amplification. The modeling approach developed in this study combines several novel elements, such as 3-D analysis (including vertical motions), nonlinear inelastic behavior of soil (strain-dependent shear modulus reduction and hysteretic damping), formulation of nonreflecting boundary conditions at the base, and generation of realistic outcrop ground motions for specific sites. All these elements of the modeling approach are first validated using actual data from five earthquakes at three downhole array stations recorded in the Kiban-Kyoshin network (KiK-net), Japan. The same approach is then used to develop site models of ten NPP sites in the United States and corresponding ground motions that are spectrally matched to the site hazard spectra. Eight sets of three-component input motions are used in the study and are categorized on the basis of presence or absence of a near-field pulse in the seed ground motions used for spectral matching. It is found that all sites retain a definite site amplification function regardless of the input motion, provided that the seed motion is spectrally matched to the site hazard spectra. The magnitude of site amplification and frequencies at which they occur depend upon soil properties, particularly the shear wave velocity profile and the constitutive relationship (strain-dependent shear modulus reduction and hysteretic damping) of soil. Amplification of spectral acceleration in the vertical direction (up-down motion) is found to be just as much as, if not more than, the amplification in the horizontal direction. Peak shear strain is found to be about 20% larger for near-field motions compared to far-field motions whereas maximum horizontal site amplification for far-field motions is found to be consistently larger than that of near-field motions, even though the differences between the two remain within the scatter resulting from individual ground motions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗