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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sustaining On-going Risk Communication at the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site - 20310

An environmental risk assessment report has been completed to provide an updated assessment regarding current site conditions for the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing site. Argonne National Laboratory conducted the assessment in collaboration with the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) and the Northern Arapaho Natural Resources Office (NANRO). The data quality objectives process conducted confirmed that data from plants growing on the Riverton site would be useful and would address an outstanding concern. Data available from site soil, groundwater, and surface water were also used in the assessment in conjunction with the new plant data. A plant survey was then conducted in 2018 to identify the plants at the Riverton site with known traditional Native American cultural uses for sampling and analysis. Laboratory analysis was conducted on the plant samples for the contaminants of concern. Samples were collected from plants growing on the groundwater plume area of the site, and the same was done for eight other areas not affected by the groundwater plume but still within the institutional control boundary. These eight areas served as reference areas for this study. This human health and ecological assessment update provide the quantitative risk information that was qualitatively addressed in a 1995 Risk Assessment Report on plants, livestock, and surface water exposures at the Riverton site [1]. The conditions at the Riverton site are protective of human health and the environment given the results of the update, in combination with past completed remedial action and ongoing monitoring activities and IC implementation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconsolidation and Leach Burn Leach of Seven As Irradiated AGR 5/6/7 TRISO Fuel Compacts from Capsules 2, 3, 4, and 5

Seven as-irradiated Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 compacts underwent destructive post-irradiation examination via deconsolidation-leach-burn leach at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The selection of the compacts extended the upper and lower limits of time-average volume-average (TAVA) temperature for compacts that had gone through deconsolidation-leach-burn leach so far. The measured inventories of fission products and actinides in the compact matrix and outer pyrolytic carbon were reported. Results indicated unexpectedly higher rates of fuel kernel leaching compared to compacts from AGR-1 and AGR-2. These failure rates were attributed to damage during post-irradiation sample handling, rather than irradiation itself. AGR-5/6/7 compacts have little or no matrix coverage for some particles at the top and bottom ends of cylindrical fuel compacts, making them more fragile. Sixty particles were randomly sampled from each compact, and the gamma results were reported. Three SiC shells from were identified, one of which showed signs of chemical attack in the high-irradiation temperature compact.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Tap Water from the American Healthy Homes Survey II

Humans experience widespread exposure to anthropogenic per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) through various media, which can lead to a wide range of negative health impacts. Tap water is an important source of exposure in communities with any degree of contamination but routine or large-scale PFAS monitoring often depends on targeted analytical methods limited to measuring specific PFAS. We analyzed 680 tap water samples from the American Healthy Homes Survey II for PFAS using non-targeted analysis (NTA) to expand the range of detectable PFAS. Based on detection frequency and relative abundance, about half of the identified PFAS were found only by NTA. We identified (with varying degrees of confidence) 75 distinct PFAS, including 57 exclusively detected by NTA. The identified PFAS are members of seven structural subclasses differentiated by their head groups and degree of fluorination. Clustering analysis categorized the PFAS into four coabundance groups dominated by specific PFAS subclasses. One group uniquely identified by NTA contains zwitterionic PFAS and other PFAS transformation products which are likely associated with aqueous firefighting foam contaminants in a small number of spatially correlated samples. These results help further characterize the scope of exposure to emerging PFAS experienced by the U.S. population via tap water and augment nationwide targeted-PFAS monitoring programs.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation exposure induces cross-species temporal metabolic changes that are mitigated in mice by amifostine

Exposure to acute, damaging radiation may occur through a variety of events from cancer therapy and industrial accidents to terrorist attacks and military actions. Our understanding of how to protect individuals and mitigate the effects of radiation injury or Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) is still limited. There are only a few Food and Drug Administration-approved therapies for ARS; whereas, amifostine is limited to treating low dose (0.7–6 Gy) radiation poisoning arising from cancer radiotherapy. An early intervention is critical to treat ARS, which necessitates identifying diagnostic biomarkers to quickly characterize radiation exposure. Towards this end, a multiplatform metabolomics study was performed to comprehensively characterize the temporal changes in metabolite levels from mice and non-human primate serum samples following γ-irradiation. The metabolomic signature of amifostine was also evaluated in mice as a model for radioprotection. The NMR and mass spectrometry metabolomics analysis identified 23 dysregulated pathways resulting from the radiation exposure. These metabolomic alterations exhibited distinct trajectories within glucose metabolism, phospholipid biosynthesis, and nucleotide metabolism. A return to baseline levels with amifostine treatment occurred for these pathways within a week of radiation exposure. Together, our data suggests a unique physiological change that is independent of radiation dose or species. Furthermore, a metabolic signature of radioprotection was observed through the use of amifostine prophylaxis of ARS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy and Principal Component Analysis to Retrospectively Determine Production History of Plutonium Dioxide

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the shortwave infrared (930–1600 nm) spectral region were acquired for Pu 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •9H 2 O and its thermal decomposition product, PuO 2 . We analyzed a total of eight PuO 2 samples that were produced at different calcination temperatures (300, 350, 450, 525, 600, 675, 750, and 900 °C). Our goal was to identify spectroscopic fingerprints that could be used to gain retrospective information regarding the production parameters of these important nuclear compounds. The diffuse reflectance spectrum of Pu 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •9H 2 O features several broad bands that currently preclude detailed analysis. However, all PuO 2 samples produced relatively sharp spectral features that got sharper and more intense for samples that were produced at higher calcination temperatures. The electronic band observed at 1433 nm in the diffuse reflectance spectra of PuO 2 was found to be a sensitive indicator of crystallinity; a result that is corroborated by ancillary Raman spectroscopy measurements. Principal component analysis of diffuse reflectance spectra was able to clearly rank and categorize PuO 2 samples based on the calcination temperature that was employed during their production. Thus, we show herein that important retrospective information pertaining to the process history of PuO 2 can be gained through the relatively simplistic combination of diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and principal component analysis. This discovery presents a new method for determining the provenance and process history of PuO 2 and should have an impact in the fields of nuclear forensics and nuclear nonproliferation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subhalos in Galaxy Clusters: Coherent Accretion and Internal Orbits

Subhalo dynamics in galaxy cluster host halos govern the observed distribution and properties of cluster member galaxies. We use the IllustrisTNG simulation to investigate the accretion and orbits of subhalos found in cluster-size halos. We find that the median change in the major axis direction of cluster-size host halos is approximately 80° between a ∼ 0.1 and the present day. We identify coherent regions in the angular distribution of subhalo accretion, and ∼68% of accreted subhalos enter their host halo through ∼38% of the surface area at the virial radius. The majority of galaxy clusters in the sample have ∼2 such coherent regions. We further measure angular orbits of subhalos with respect to the host major axis and use a clustering algorithm to identify distinct orbit modes with varying oscillation timescales. The orbit modes correlate with subhalo accretion conditions. Subhalos in orbit modes with shorter oscillations tend to have lower peak masses and accretion directions somewhat more aligned with the major axis. One orbit mode, exhibiting the least oscillatory behavior, largely consists of subhalos that accrete near the plane perpendicular to the host halo major axis. Our findings are consistent with expectations from inflow from major filament structures and internal dynamical friction: most subhalos accrete through coherent regions, and more massive subhalos experience fewer orbits after accretion. Our work offers a unique quantification of subhalo dynamics that can be connected to how the intracluster medium strips and quenches cluster galaxies.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synthesis of magnesiowüstite nanocrystallites embedded in an amorphous silicate matrix via low energy multiple ion implantations

The synthesis process is presented for experimentally simulating modifications in cosmic dust grains using sequential ion implantations or irradiations followed by thermal annealing. Cosmic silicate dust analogues were prepared via implantation of 20–80 keV Fe - , Mg - , and O - ions into commercially available p-type silicon (100)wafers. The as-implanted analogues are amorphous with a Mg/(Fe+Mg) ratio of 0.5 tailored to match theoretical abundances in circumstellar dusts. Before the ion implantations were performed, Monte-Carlo-based ion-solid interaction codes were used to model the dynamic redistribution of the implanted atoms in the silicon substrate. 600 keV helium ion irradiation was performed on one of the samples before thermal annealing. Two samples were thermally annealed at a temperature appropriate for an M-class stellar wind, 1000 K, for 8.3 h in a vacuum chamber with a pressure of 1 x 10 -7 torr. The elemental depth profiles were extracted utilizing Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry (RBS) in the samples before and after thermal annealing. X-ray diffraction (XRD)analysis was employed for the identification of various phases in crystalline minerals in the annealed analogues. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis was utilized to identify specific crystal structures. RBS analysis shows redistribution of the implanted Fe, Mg, and O after thermal annealing due to incorporation into the crystal structures for each sample type. XRD patterns along with TEM analysis showed nanocrystalline Mg and Fe oxides with possible incorporation of additional silicate minerals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Metabolomics Assay to Diagnose Citrus Huanglongbing Disease and to Aid in Assessment of Treatments to Prevent or Cure Infection

Citrus greening disease, or Huanglongbing (HLB), has devastated citrus crops globally in recent years. The causal bacterium, ‘ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’, presents a sampling issue for qPCR diagnostics and results in a high false negative rate. In this work, we compared six metabolomics assays to identify HLB-infected citrus trees from leaf tissue extracted from 30 control and 30 HLB-infected trees. A liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based assay was most accurate. A final partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) model was trained and validated on 690 leaf samples with corresponding qPCR measures from three citrus varieties (Rio Red grapefruit, Hamlin sweet orange, and Valencia sweet orange) from orchards in Florida and Texas. Trees were naturally infected with HLB transmitted by the insect vector Diaphorina citri. In a randomized validation set, the assay was 99.9% accurate to classify diseased from nondiseased samples. This model was applied to samples from trees receiving plant defense-inducer compounds or biological treatments to prevent or cure HLB infection. From two trials, HLB-related metabolite abundances and PLS-DA scores were tracked longitudinally and compared with those of control trees. We demonstrate how our assay can assess tree health and the efficacy of HLB treatments and conclude that no trialed treatment was efficacious.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considerations for quantitative in situ X-ray powder diffraction studies of solid-state reactions

The importance of sample preparation in collecting high-fidelity powder diffraction data suitable for quantitative structure and phase analysis is well established. Such powder diffraction experiments are increasingly being appliedin situ, during reactions, to explore solid-state reactivity. When appliedin situ, X-ray diffraction is widely used to gain insight into the mechanism and kinetics, and to identify dynamic intermediate states. Here, using a model ion-exchange reaction (NaFeO 2 + LiCl → LiFeO 2 + NaCl), we show that sample preparation not only influences the fidelity of powder diffraction analysis but also impacts the observed reaction progress. Specifically, we found that the observed reaction progress can differ by ∼50% depending on the capillary sample preparation. Thus, forin situdiffraction studies of solid-state reactions, packing fraction is an important and previously unrecognized consideration that impacts reproducibility and fidelity of the reaction study.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Water Retention and Hydraulic Conductivity Data and Model at Trail Creek in Taylor River Watershed, Colorado 2024-2025

This data package includes soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity data and model fitting results from measurements of ex-situ soil samples and in-situ soil sensors near Trail Creek. Soil water retention curves (SWRC) characterize soil water content as a function of soil water potential. SWRC depends on soil texture and pore structure and can be used to describe the constraints on biogeochemical processes in terms of soil water availability. In this data package, the sample identification follows the format TR-X-Y, where TR refers to Trail Creek, X is the treatment block identifier, and Y is the location identifier. Specifically, TR-ASCC1 is the control treatment block under the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project, and TR-ASCC2 is the clear-cut treatment block. TR-ASCC-EHSn is associated with ecohydrology sites under the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory Sites directory, and TR-ASCC-ERTn (upslope n=1) are ecohydrology sites along the electrical resistivity tomography transects. The sample and location information can be found in metadata.csv, and the data from the soil sensors will be included in a future data version when the observation period becomes sufficiently long for data analysis. Sampling and Measurements Each sample falls into one of the two sampling methods – (1) intact cores or (2) soil sensors – and one of the two measurement methods – (a) laboratory or (b) in-situ. The intact cores were measured using the laboratory methods, which include measurements of soil water potential (HYPROP & WP4C, METER), saturated (KSAT, METER) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP). The in-situ method uses a pair of co-located soil sensors to measure volumetric water content (TEROS12, METER) and soil water potential (TEROS21, METER), and the hydraulic conductivity was not measured. In comparison, the laboratory methods progress from full saturation to dry conditions, and the in-situ method includes both dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry cycles. The sampling and measurement methods for each sample can be found in metadata.csv, and more information about the measurements is detailed in the Methods section below. Models Retention and hydraulic conductivity data were fitted with four van-Genuchten-type models (specified by “model_name” column in the files): (1) traditional constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained”), (2) traditional unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained”), (3) PDI-variant of the constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained_PDI”), and (4) PDI-variant of the unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained_PDI”). The difference between the constrained (1: n) and the unconstrained (2: n, m) van Genuchten models is the number of pore-size distribution parameters in the model equations, giving the unconstrained model more degrees of freedom when fitting the data. Between the traditional and the PDI-variant models, model fitting differs the most at the dry end of the measurements. The traditional models allow infinite suction at the residual water content (water content does not drop below residual water content), and the PDI-variant models enforce a soil water potential value of pF=6.8 (~ -630 MPa) at oven-dryness (water content reaches 0). The inclusion of the van-Genuchten-type models is due to their common application. If other retention models are required, users can access the data in data.csv for further data fitting. More information about the models can be found in the Methods section below. Fitting Tasks The model fitting can be categorized into three levels of tasks (specified by “fitting_task” column in the files). Level 1 (“fit_retention”) only includes retention data fitting (the only level available for the in-situ method). Level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, a parameter of the hydraulic conductivity functions) is fixed by the measurements from KSAT. Level 3 (“fit_retention_conductivity_Ks”) also includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, but Ks is a fitted parameter without the constraints from KSAT measurements. Among the same retention models (e.g. vG_constrained models of the same sample), level 1 should produce the best retention data fitting. Level 2 should have the highest misfit of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data, because the retention and hydraulic conductivity functions share common model parameters, and the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP) data fitting is subject to Ks measured independently by KSAT. Level 3 should have mid-level misfits of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data. While level 3 fits the hydraulic conductivity data better than level 2, the fitted Ks value might be unreasonable due to the lack of constraints at the wet end of the measurements. General recommendation when using this data package: (1) Choice of sampling methods: Intact cores might suffer from sample gaps that would lead to overestimation of Ks (sample gaps can be inferred from the “soil_sample_volume” column in metadata.csv when the value is < 249). In-situ method has higher uncertainty in characterizing the wet end of the SWRC because of sensor limitations and the difficulty in reaching full saturation under natural conditions. (2) Choice of fitting tasks: When only retention data is needed, level 1 (“fit_retention”) should be prioritized. When both retention and hydraulic conductivity data are needed, level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) could be prioritized. (3) Choice of models: This could depend on what the downstream models call for. If no specific model is required, model misfit could be used as a ranking criterion. Model misfit values in terms of RMSE can be found in model_parameters.csv. The following files are included in this data package: (1) metadata.csv – This file includes the general information of each sample, including location (description, geocoordinates, elevation), sampling and measurements details (method, depth, time or period, volume, instruments), and soil physical properties (bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, only applicable to physical soil samples). (2) data.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity data of each sample. Column “instrument” specifies the instrument (HYPROP, WP4C, or TEROS) used to perform the measurements. (3) model_fit.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity fitted from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the variable does not apply to that fitting task. (4) model_parameters.csv – This file includes the fitted model parameters, model misfits, and conventional water content thresholds (field capacity and wilting point) from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the parameter does not apply to that model and/or that fitting task. (5) data_Ks.csv – This file includes the saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements from KSAT. (6) /figure/*.png – This folder includes three quick visualizations of the data, retention model fitting results and misfits, and hydraulic conductivity model fitting results, misfits, and parameters. The model fitting results are separated by samples and fitting tasks and colored by models. Zoom-in required. (7) /hyprop/*.bdhx – This folder includes proprietary hyprop files that require the free Labros SoilView-Analysis (METER) to open. Users can explore data fitting using other retention models (i.e. Brooks-Corey, Fredlund-Xing, Kosugi, bimodal models). Be aware that Ks value is pre-entered under “Fitting tab, Conductivity functions parameters” for level 2 fitting. If the value is lost, please refer to metadata.csv under “Ks” column. (8) Six file-level metadata that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Poisson tensor completion non-parametric differential entropy estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator, a non-parametric differential entropy estimator. The PTC estimator leverages inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the intensity measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed PTC differential entropy estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values and so can be safely used directly in entropy estimation. Our estimator is the first tensor-based estimator that exploits the underlying spatial Poisson process related to the histogram explicitly when estimating the probability density with low-rank tensor decompositions for the purpose of tensor completion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A systematic analytical framework for multi-source municipal solid waste characterization for energy recovery

Advancing municipal solid waste (MSW) management from disposal-oriented practices toward circular, value-driven systems requires standardized methodologies capable of identifying material composition and resource recoverable potential at the point of generation. Despite extensive research, MSW characterization remains fragmented due to inconsistences in sampling methodologies, waste sorting categories, and temporal coverage across previous studies which limit cross-site comparability, reproducibility, and constrain the reliable evaluation of potential resource recovery pathways. This lack of consistency has hindered the development of a unified framework for MSW characterization and resource assessment. This study introduces a standardized, field-validated protocol for MSW sampling and composition analysis that ensures consistent, traceable data across diverse waste sources. The protocol integrates randomized spatial sampling, systematic material sorting, and controlled subsampling for multi-site and multi-season field campaigns. Validation included MSW collection from residential, grocery, restaurant, and school MSW streams across five U.S. states, including Maryland, Idaho, Virginia, Ohio, and Mississippi, to demonstrate the protocol’s ability to identify source-based composition patterns relevant to resource recovery applications. Grocery and restaurant streams were dominated by food waste and high-moisture organics, while school waste contained higher paper content and residential waste showed greater heterogeneity. Aggregation into energy-relevant fractions highlighted practical recovery pathways via anaerobic digestion or gasification, supporting data-driven planning, policy, and circular economy strategies for sustainable waste management across waste sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applications of Machine Learning to Predicting Core-collapse Supernova Explosion Outcomes

Most existing criteria derived from progenitor properties of core-collapse supernovae are not very accurate in predicting explosion outcomes. We present a novel look at identifying the explosion outcome of core-collapse supernovae using a machine-learning approach. Informed by a sample of 100 2D axisymmetric supernova simulations evolved with F ornax , we train and evaluate a random forest classifier as an explosion predictor. Furthermore, we examine physics-based feature sets including the compactness parameter, the Ertl condition, and a newly developed set that characterizes the silicon/oxygen interface. With over 1500 supernovae progenitors from 9-27 M ⊙ , we additionally train an autoencoder to extract physics-agnostic features directly from the progenitor density profiles. We find that the density profiles alone contain meaningful information regarding their explodability. Both the silicon/oxygen and autoencoder features predict the explosion outcome with ≈90% accuracy. In anticipation of much larger multidimensional simulation sets, we identify future directions in which machine-learning applications will be useful beyond the explosion outcome prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semi-analytical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for DESI 2024 data

We present an optimized way of producing the fast semi-analytical covariance matrices for the Legendre moments of the two-point correlation function, taking into account survey geometry and mimicking the non-Gaussian effects. We validate the approach on simulated (mock) catalogs for different galaxy types, representative of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1, used in 2024 analyses. We find only a few percent differences between the mock sample covariance matrix and our results, which can be expected given the approximate nature of the mocks, although we do identify discrepancies between the shot-noise properties of the DESI fiber assignment algorithm and the faster approximation (emulator) used in the mocks. Importantly, we find a close agreement (≤ 8% relative differences) in the projected errorbars for distance scale parameters for the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements. This confirms our method as an attractive alternative to simulation-based covariance matrices, especially for non-standard models or galaxy sample selections, making it particularly relevant to the broad current and future analyses of DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Charge Compensation by Iodine Covalent Bonding in Lead Iodide Perovskite Materials

Metal halide perovskite materials (MHPs) are a family of next-generation semiconductors that are enabling low-cost, high-performance solar cells and optoelectronic devices. The most-used halogen in MHPs, iodine, can supplement its octet by covalent bonding resulting in atomic charges intermediate to I− and I0. Here, we examine theoretically stabilized defects of iodine using density functional theory (DFT); defect formation enthalpies and iodine Bader charges which illustrate how MHPs adapt to stoichiometry changes. Experimentally, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is used to identify perovskite defects and their relative binding energies, and validate the predicted chemical environments of iodine defects. Examining MHP samples with excess iodine compared with near stoichiometric samples, we discern additional spectral intensity in the I 3d5/2 XPS data arising from defects, and support the presence of iodine trimers. I 3d5/2 defect peak areas reveal a ratio of 2:1, matching the number of atoms at the ends and middle of the trimer, whereas their binding energies agree with calculated Bader charges. Results suggest the iodine trimer is the preferred structural motif for incorporation of excess iodine into the perovskite lattice. Understanding these easily formed photoactive defects and how to identify their presence is essential for stabilizing MHPs against photodecomposition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enter Gaussian Mixture Modeling Extensions for Improved False Discovery Rate Estimation in GC-MS Metabolomics

Identifying small molecules (e.g., metabolites) is key towards driving scientific advancement in metabolomics, and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) is an analytic method that may be applied to facilitate this process. The typical GC-MS identification workflow involves quantifying the similarity of an observed sample spectrum and other features (e.g. retention index) to that of several references, noting the compound of the best-matching reference spectrum as the identified metabolite. While a deluge of similarity metrics exists, none characterize the error rate of generated identifications, thereby presenting an unknown risk of false identification or discovery. To quantify this unknown risk, we propose a model-based framework for estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) among a set of identifications. Extending the traditional mixture modeling framework, our method incorporates both similarity score and experimental information in estimating the FDR. We apply these models to identification lists derived from across 548 samples of varying complexity and sample type (e.g., fungal species, standard mixtures, etc.), comparing their performance to that of the traditional Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Through simulation, we additionally assess the impact of reference library size on the accuracy of FDR estimates. In comparing the best performing model extensions to the GMM, our results indicate relative decreases in median absolute estimation error (MAE) ranging from 12% to 70%, based on comparisons of the median MAEs across all hit-lists. Results indicate that these relative performance improvements generally hold despite library size, however FDR estimation error typically worsens as the set of reference compounds diminishes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale homogeneity in the distribution of quasars in the Hercules-Corona Borealis Great Wall region

In light of recent debates on the existence of a gigaparsec-scale structure traced by gamma-ray bursts, namely the Hercules-Corona Borealis Great Wall (HCBGW), we revisit large-scale homogeneity in the spatial distribution of quasars. Our volume-limited sample of quasars in the redshift range 1:6 < z ≤ 2:1, which is constructed from the data release 7 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasar catalogue, covers about half of the suspected HCBGW region. We analyze the sample in two complementary ways: fractal analysis of determining the average scale of homogeneity and friends- of-friends analysis of identifying specific large-scale structures. The quasar distribution on average reaches homogeneity at rh = 136 ± 38h-1 Mpc and the richness and comoving size frequencies of large (> ~ 150h-1 Mpc) quasar groups are consistent with the prediction of homogeneous distribution. These results put constraints on the spatial extent of the HCBGW but do not contradict its existence since our quasar sample does not cover the entire HCBGW region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗