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At least 847 records · Page 47

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cramer-Rao Lower Bound for SoOp-R-Based Root-Zone Soil Moisture Remote Sensing

Signals of opportunity (SoOp) reflectometry (SoOp-R) is a maturing field for geophysical remote sensing as evidenced by the growing number of airborne and spaceborne experiments. As this approach receives more attention, it is worth analyzing SoOp-R’s capabilities to retrieve subsurface soil moisture (SM) by leveraging communication and navigation satellite transmitters. In this research, the CRLB is used to identify the effects of variable SoOp-R parameters on the best achievable estimation error for root-zone soil moisture (RZSM). This study investigates the use of multiple frequency, polarization, and incidence angle measurement configurations on a two-layered dielectric profile. The results also detail the effects of variable SM conditions on the capability of SoOp-R systems to predict subsurface SM. The most prevalent observation is the importance of using at least two frequencies to limit uncertainties from subsurface SM estimates. If at least two frequencies are used, the CRLB of a profile is retrievable within the root-zone depending on the surface SM content as well as the number of independent measurements of the profile. For a depth of 30 cm, it is observed that a CRLB corresponding to 4% RZSM estimation accuracy is achievable with as few as 2 dual-frequency-based SoOp-R measurements. For this depth, increasing number of measurements provided by polarization and incidence angle allow for sensing of increasingly wet SM profile structures. This study, overall, details a methodology by which SoOp-R receiver system can be designed to achieve a desired CRLB using a trade-off study between the available measurements and SM profile.

Signals of Opportunity (SoOp)↗

Abnormalities of the QT interval in primary disorders of autonomic failure

BACKGROUND: Experimental evidence shows that activation of the autonomic nervous system influences ventricular repolarization and, therefore, the QT interval on the ECG. To test the hypothesis that the QT interval is abnormal in autonomic dysfunction, we examined ECGs in patients with severe primary autonomic failure and in patients with congenital dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DbetaH) deficiency who are unable to synthesize norepinephrine and epinephrine. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Maximal QT and rate-corrected QT (QTc) intervals and adjusted QTc dispersion [(maximal QTc - minimum QTc on 12 lead ECG)/square root of the number of leads measured] were determined in blinded fashion from ECGs of 67 patients with primary autonomic failure (36 patients with multiple system atrophy [MSA], and 31 patients with pure autonomic failure [PAF]) and 17 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. ECGs of 5 patients with congenital DbetaH deficiency and 6 age- and sex-matched controls were also analyzed. RESULTS: Patients with MSA and PAF had significantly prolonged maximum QTc intervals (492+/-58 ms(1/2) and 502+/-61 ms(1/2) [mean +/- SD]), respectively, compared with controls (450+/-18 ms(1/2), P < .05 and P < .01, respectively). A similar but not significant trend was observed for QT. QTc dispersion was also increased in MSA (40+/-20 ms(1/2), P < .05 vs controls) and PAF patients (32+/-19 ms(1/2), NS) compared with controls (21+/-5 ms(1/2)). In contrast, patients with congenital DbetaH deficiency did not have significantly different RR, QT, QTc intervals, or QTc dispersion when compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with primary autonomic failure who have combined parasympathetic and sympathetic failure have abnormally prolonged QT interval and increased QT dispersion. However, QT interval in patients with congenital DbetaH deficiency was not significantly different from controls. It is possible, therefore, that QT abnormalities in patients with primary autonomic failure are not solely caused by lesions of the sympathetic nervous system, and that the parasympathetic nervous system is likely to have a modulatory role in ventricular repolarization.

Non-NASA Center↗

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Functional team selection as a framework for local adaptation in plants and their belowground microbiomes

Abstract Multicellular organisms are hosts to diverse communities of smaller organisms known as microbiomes. Plants have distinctive microbiomes that can provide important functions related to nutrition, defense, and stress tolerance. Empirical studies provide convincing evidence that in some—but not all—circumstances, belowground microbiomes help plants adapt to their local environment. The purpose of this review is to develop functional team selection (FTS) as a framework to help predict the conditions necessary for root microbiomes to generate local adaptation for their plant hosts. FTS envisions plants and their microbiomes as complex adaptive systems, and plant adaptations as emergent properties of these systems. If plants have the capacity to recognize and cultivate beneficial microbes and suppress pathogens, then it is possible for plants to evolve the capacity to gain adaptations by curating their microbiome. In resource-limited and stressful environments, the emergent functions of complex microbial systems may contribute to positive feedback linked to plant vigor, and ultimately, local adaptation. The key factors in this process are: (i) selective force, (ii) host constitution, (iii) microbial diversity, and (iv) time. There is increasing interest in harnessing beneficial microbial interactions in agriculture and many microbial growth-promoting products are commercially available, but their use is controversial because a large proportion of these products fail to consistently enhance plant growth. The FTS framework may help direct the development of durable plant-microbiome systems that enhance crop production and diminish pathogens. It may also provide valuable insights for understanding and managing other kinds of host-microbe systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

High-energy synchrotron flares powered by strongly radiative relativistic magnetic reconnection: 2D and 3D PIC simulations

ABSTRACT The time evolution of high-energy synchrotron radiation generated in a relativistic pair plasma energized by reconnection of strong magnetic fields is investigated with 2D and 3D particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. The simulations in this 2D/3D comparison study are conducted with the radiative PIC code OSIRIS, which self-consistently accounts for the synchrotron radiation reaction on the emitting particles, and enables us to explore the effects of synchrotron cooling. Magnetic reconnection causes compression of the plasma and magnetic field deep inside magnetic islands (plasmoids), leading to an enhancement of the flaring emission, which may help explain some astrophysical gamma-ray flare observations. Although radiative cooling weakens the emission from plasmoid cores, it facilitates additional compression there, further amplifying the magnetic field B and plasma density n, and thus partially mitigating this effect. Novel simulation diagnostics utilizing 2D histograms in the n-B space are developed and used to visualize and quantify the effects of compression. The n-B histograms are observed to be bounded by relatively sharp power-law boundaries marking clear limits on compression. Theoretical explanations for some of these compression limits are developed, rooted in radiative resistivity or 3D kinking instabilities. Systematic parameter-space studies with respect to guide magnetic field, system size, and upstream magnetization are conducted and suggest that stronger compression, brighter high-energy radiation, and perhaps significant quantum electrodynamic effects such as pair production, may occur in environments with larger reconnection-region sizes and higher magnetization, particularly when magnetic field strengths approach the critical (Schwinger) field, as found in magnetar magnetospheres.

Schoeffler, K. M. (ORCID:0000000276447381)↗

Roundup causes embryonic development failure and alters metabolic pathways and gut microbiota functionality in non-target species

Background: Research around the weedkiller Roundup is among the most contentious of the twenty-first century. Scientists have provided inconclusive evidence that the weedkiller causes cancer and other life-threatening diseases, while industry-paid research reports that the weedkiller has no adverse effect on humans or animals. Much of the controversial evidence on Roundup is rooted in the approach used to determine safe use of chemicals, defined by outdated toxicity tests. We apply a system biology approach to the biomedical and ecological model species Daphnia to quantify the impact of glyphosate and of its commercial formula, Roundup, on fitness, genome-wide transcription and gut microbiota, taking full advantage of clonal reproduction in Daphnia. We then apply machine learning-based statistical analysis to identify and prioritize correlations between genome-wide transcriptional and microbiota changes. Results: We demonstrate that chronic exposure to ecologically relevant concentrations of glyphosate and Roundup at the approved regulatory threshold for drinking water in the US induce embryonic developmental failure, induce significant DNA damage (genotoxicity), and interfere with signaling. Furthermore, chronic exposure to the weedkiller alters the gut microbiota functionality and composition interfering with carbon and fat metabolism, as well as homeostasis. Using the “Reactome,” we identify conserved pathways across the Tree of Life, which are potential targets for Roundup in other species, including liver metabolism, inflammation pathways, and collagen degradation, responsible for the repair of wounds and tissue remodeling. Conclusions: Our results show that chronic exposure to concentrations of Roundup and glyphosate at the approved regulatory threshold for drinking water causes embryonic development failure and alteration of key metabolic functions via direct effect on the host molecular processes and indirect effect on the gut microbiota. The ecological model species Daphnia occupies a central position in the food web of aquatic ecosystems, being the preferred food of small vertebrates and invertebrates as well as a grazer of algae and bacteria. The impact of the weedkiller on this keystone species has cascading effects on aquatic food webs, affecting their ability to deliver critical ecosystem services.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗

Impact of a track trigger at a multi-TeV muon collider

In the panorama of future particle accelerators, the Muon Collider seems to be the best choice for several reasons that will be explored in section 1.2. The main challenge is represented by the instability of the muons. At the desired instantaneous luminosities, an intense flow of secondary and tertiary particles from the interactions of the beam decay products with the machine elements reaches the detector, compromising its performance. Several studies are currently underway to mitigate the background and to have an efficient trigger. My work represents a first step towards understanding the basic characteristics of a trigger selection, which will subsequently guide the design of the trigger system. With this aim I produced and analyzed Higgs and di-Higgs signals with MadGraph and CERN-ROOT. In first section there is an introduction to Muon Collider, a brief history, a discussion of its benefits, a description of the detector and of the effects of the Beam Induced Background. Several operating center-of-mass energies are possible for this machine, in this report a center-of-mass of 3 TeV is assumed. Then I describe the event generation process. Finally I describe the entire analysis, in particular I analyzed the efficiency and the number of events for each process.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Hurricane Helene: Energy Systems Impact and Situational Insights in East Tennessee

This situational report focuses specifically on energy system performance and interdependencies associated with Hurricane Helene’s impacts across East Tennessee. It does not attempt to identify root causes, evaluate broader emergency response structures, or assess agency effectiveness. Rather, it aims to illuminate how energy disruptions intersected with other lifeline services, particularly water, transportation, and communications, and identify the infrastructural and logistical conditions that shaped those outcomes. Where possible, this report seeks to highlight both constraints and successful practices that emerged during the event.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Loudness of steady sounds - A new theory

A new mathematical theory for calculating the loudness of steady sounds from power summation and frequency interaction, based on psychoacoustic and physiological information, assuems that loudness is a subjective measure of the electrical energy transmitted along the auditory nerve to the central nervous system. The auditory system consists of the mechanical part modeled by a bandpass filter with a transfer function dependent on the sound pressure, and the electrical part where the signal is transformed into a half-wave reproduction represented by the electrical power in impulsive discharges transmitted along neurons comprising the auditory nerve. In the electrical part the neurons are distributed among artificial parallel channels with frequency bandwidths equal to 'critical bandwidths for loudness', within which loudness is constant for constant sound pressure. The total energy transmitted to the central nervous system is the sum of the energy transmitted in all channels, and the loudness is proportional to the square root of the total filtered sound energy distributed over all channels. The theory explains many psychoacoustic phenomena such as audible beats resulting from closely spaced tones, interaction of sound stimuli which affect the same neurons affecting loudness, and of individually subliminal sounds becoming audible if they lie within the same critical band.

Howes, W. L.↗

The ultimate quantum limits on the accuracy of measurements

A quantum generalization of rate-distortion theory from standard communication and information theory is developed for application to determining the ultimate performance limit of measurement systems in physics. For the estimation of a real or a phase parameter, it is shown that the root-mean-square error obtained in a measurement with a single-mode photon level N cannot do better than approximately N exp -1, while approximately exp(-N) may be obtained for multi-mode fields with the same photon level N. Possible ways to achieve the remarkable exponential performance are indicated.

Yuen, Horace P.↗

Distribution functions of probabilistic automata

Each probabilistic automaton M over an alphabet A defines a probability measure Prob sub(M) on the set of all finite and infinite words over A. We can identify a k letter alphabet A with the set {0, 1,..., k-1}, and, hence, we can consider every finite or infinite word w over A as a radix k expansion of a real number X(w) in the interval [0, 1]. This makes X(w) a random variable and the distribution function of M is defined as usual: F(x) := Prob sub(M) { w: X(w) < x }. Utilizing the fixed-point semantics (denotational semantics), extended to probabilistic computations, we investigate the distribution functions of probabilistic automata in detail. Automata with continuous distribution functions are characterized. By a new, and much more easier method, it is shown that the distribution function F(x) is an analytic function if it is a polynomial. Finally, answering a question posed by D. Knuth and A. Yao, we show that a polynomial distribution function F(x) on [0, 1] can be generated by a prob abilistic automaton iff all the roots of F'(x) = 0 in this interval, if any, are rational numbers. For this, we define two dynamical systems on the set of polynomial distributions and study attracting fixed points of random composition of these two systems.

Denotational semantics↗

Equivalent Linearization Analysis of Geometrically Nonlinear Random Vibrations Using Commercial Finite Element Codes

Two new equivalent linearization implementations for geometrically nonlinear random vibrations are presented. Both implementations are based upon a novel approach for evaluating the nonlinear stiffness within commercial finite element codes and are suitable for use with any finite element code having geometrically nonlinear static analysis capabilities. The formulation includes a traditional force-error minimization approach and a relatively new version of a potential energy-error minimization approach, which has been generalized for multiple degree-of-freedom systems. Results for a simply supported plate under random acoustic excitation are presented and comparisons of the displacement root-mean-square values and power spectral densities are made with results from a nonlinear time domain numerical simulation.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

REIMR: A Process for Utilizing Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons-Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted a t the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). The results of this study was the identification of the "Fundamental Root Causes" that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future engine development efforts. This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided.

Ballard, Richard O.↗

Evaluation of Contact Separation Force Testing as a Screening Methodology for Electrical Socket Contacts

During system level testing intermittent and permanent open circuit failures of mated, crimp removable, electrical contact pairs were experienced. The root cause of the failures was determined to be low (but not zero) contact forces applied by the socket contact tines against the engaging pin. The low contact force reduces the effectiveness of the wiping action of the socket tines against the pin. The observed failure mode may be produced when insufficient wiping during mate, demate and small relative movement in use allows for the accumulation of debris or insulating films that electrically separate the contact pair. The investigation identified at least three manufacturing process control problems associated with the socket contacts that enabled shipment of contacts susceptible to developing low contact forces: (1) Improper heat treatment of the socket tines resulting in plastic rather than elastic behavior; (2) Overly thinned socket tines at their base resulting in reduced pin retention forces; (3) Insufficient screening tests to identify parts susceptible to the aforementioned failure mechanisms. The results from an extensive screening program of socket contacts utilizing the industry standard contact separation force test procedures are described herein. The investigation shows this method to be capable of identifying initially weak sockets. However, sockets whose contact retention forces may degrade during use may not be screened out by pin retention testing alone. Further investigations are required to correlate low contact retention forces with increased electrical contact resistance in the presence of insulating films that may accumulate in the use environment.

Christopher Green↗

Ares Launch Vehicle Transonic Buffet Testing and Analysis Techniques

It is necessary to define the launch vehicle buffet loads to ensure that structural components and vehicle subsystems possess adequate strength, stress, and fatigue margins when the vehicle structural dynamic response to buffet forcing functions are considered. In order to obtain these forcing functions, the accepted method is to perform wind-tunnel testing of a rigid model instrumented with hundreds of unsteady pressure transducers designed to measure the buffet environment across the desired frequency range. The buffet wind-tunnel test program for the Ares Crew Launch Vehicle employed 3.5 percent scale rigid models of the Ares I and Ares I-X launch vehicles instrumented with 256 unsteady pressure transducers each. These models were tested at transonic conditions at the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. The ultimate deliverable of the Ares buffet test program are buffet forcing functions (BFFs) derived from integrating the measured fluctuating pressures on the rigid wind-tunnel models. These BFFs are then used as input to a multi-mode structural analysis to determine the vehicle response to buffet and the resulting buffet loads and accelerations. This paper discusses the development of the Ares I and I-X rigid buffet model test programs from the standpoint of model design, instrumentation system design, test implementation, data analysis techniques to yield final products, and presents normalized sectional buffet forcing function root-mean-squared levels.

Piatak, David J.↗

Eclipse-Free-Time Assessment Tool for IRIS

IRIS_EFT is a scientific simulation that can be used to perform an Eclipse-Free- Time (EFT) assessment of IRIS (Infrared Imaging Surveyor) mission orbits. EFT is defined to be those time intervals longer than one day during which the IRIS spacecraft is not in the Earth s shadow. Program IRIS_EFT implements a special perturbation of orbital motion to numerically integrate Cowell's form of the system of differential equations. Shadow conditions are predicted by embedding this integrator within Brent s method for finding the root of a nonlinear equation. The IRIS_EFT software models the effects of the following types of orbit perturbations on the long-term evolution and shadow characteristics of IRIS mission orbits. (1) Non-spherical Earth gravity, (2) Atmospheric drag, (3) Point-mass gravity of the Sun, and (4) Point-mass gravity of the Moon. The objective of this effort was to create an in-house computer program that would perform eclipse-free-time analysis. of candidate IRIS spacecraft mission orbits in an accurate and timely fashion. The software is a suite of Fortran subroutines and data files organized as a "computational" engine that is used to accurately predict the long-term orbit evolution of IRIS mission orbits while searching for Earth shadow conditions.

Eagle, David↗