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At least 847 records · Page 47

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multi-device study of temporal characteristics of magnetohydrodynamic modes initiating disruptions

Disruptions in tokamaks are often preceded by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities that can rotate or become locked to the wall. Measurements from magnetic diagnostics in the presence of MHD mode precursors to disruptions can yield potentially valuable input to the plasma control system, with a view to disruption avoidance, prediction and mitigation. This report presents an exploratory analysis of the growth of MHD modes and corresponding time scales on the basis of magnetic measurements in multiple tokamaks. To this end, a database was compiled using disruptive discharges from COMPASS, ASDEX Upgrade, DIII-D and JET, manually classified according to disruption root cause, and characterized by a great diversity of operational conditions and mode dynamics. The typical time during which a mode can be detected using saddle coils and the duration of the locked mode phase in the database both extend over several orders of magnitude, but generally the time scales increase with plasma size. Several additional factors are discussed that can influence these durations, including the disruption root cause. A scaling law for the locked phase duration was estimated, yielding predictions toward ITER of the order of hundreds of milliseconds or even seconds. In addition, a scaling law for the mode amplitude at the disruption onset, proposed earlier by de Vries et al. (2016), is applied to the database, and its predictive capabilities are assessed. Despite significant uncertainty on the predictions from both scaling laws, encouraging trends are observed of the fraction of disruptions that may be detected with sufficient warning time to allow mitigation or even avoidance, based solely on observations of MHD mode dynamics. When combined with similar analysis of measurements from diagnostics that are sensitive to other disruption precursors, our analysis methods and results may contribute to the reliability, robustness and generalization of disruption warning schemes for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A new approach to the evaluation and solution of the relativistic kinetic dispersion relation and verification with continuum kinetic simulation

Here, the present work describes a new approach to evaluation and root finding for the kinetic dispersion relation of Langmuir waves, which is central to the analytical understanding of collisionless damping in plasmas. The plasma dispersion function is solved to machine precision using direct integration in the complex plane in combination with an analytic evaluation of the residue to account for the deformation along the Landau contour. To efficiently attain machine precision, the contour is displaced in the complex plane prior to integration, and numerical subtleties related to the placement of the contour are discussed. The approach is generic in that it applies to arbitrary distribution functions, with the present manuscript focused on relativistic cases. Detailed verification of results via direct kinetic simulation in a variety of configuration space dimensions is also presented. Finally, the technique is applied to the challenging case of highly relativistic (i.e. extremely hot) plasmas. Here we show both qualitative agreement with prior work, as well as the disappearance of the Landau root which would have significant implication for real-life observation or experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic characterization of sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effect of the integral length scales of turbulent inflows on wind turbine loads

As wind turbines become larger, the fluctuations in the inflow become increasingly influential in the turbine structural loading. These fluctuations are characterized by the integral length scale, which represents the average size of the largest energy-containing turbulent eddies. Current design standards neglect the varying integral length scales that characterize inflows of wind turbines in operation. Using large-eddy simulations, we generate turbulent inflows of varying integral length scales and quantify the loads of the IEA 15-MW reference wind turbine. Results illustrate that the impact of turbulence on rotor and tower loads is up to 10 times greater than the impact of the mean shear profile. Increasing integral length scales from 0.3x to 0.5x the rotor diameter reduces blade root flapwise moments and rotor and tower loads. Increasing integral length scales from 0.5x to 1.7x the rotor diameter increases the rotor aerodynamic thrust force and the blade root flapwise shear loads and decreases the tower base torsional moment and the tilting and yawing rotor aerodynamic moments. Additionally, turbulence intensity has a greater impact on wind turbine loads than integral length scales. In conclusion, findings indicate that design standards should consider varying integral length scales for accurate wind turbine loading characterization in turbulent inflow conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A decreasing carbon allocation to belowground autotrophic respiration in global forest ecosystems

Belowground autotrophic respiration (RAsoil) depends on carbohydrates from photosynthesis flowing to roots and rhizospheres, and is one of the most important but least understood components in forest carbon cycling. Carbon allocation plays an important role in forest carbon cycling and reflects forest adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, carbon allocation to RAsoil has not been fully examined at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, first, the spatio-temporal patterns of RAsoil from 1981 to 2017 were predicted by a Random Forest (RF) algorithm using the most updated Global Soil Respiration Database (v5) with global environmental variables; second, carbon allocation from photosynthesis to RAsoil (CAB), was calculated as the ratio of RAsoil to gross primary production; and its temporal and spatial patterns were assessed in global forest ecosystems. . Globally, mean RAsoil from forests was 8.9 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± standard deviation) from 1981 to 2017 with strong spatial variabilities. Temporally, RAsoil increased at a rate of 0.0059 Pg C yr-2, paralleling broader soil respiration changes and indicating increasing carbon respired by roots. Mean CAB was 0.243 ± 0.016 and decreased over time. The temporal trend of CAB varied greatly in space, reflecting uneven responses of CAB to environmental changes. This study is the first attempt to predict global CAB and analyze its temporal and spatial patterns. With the linkage of carbon use efficiency, the developed CAB offers an completely independent approach to quantify global aboveground autotropic respiration spatially and temporally, which could provide crucial insights into carbon flux partition and global carbon cycling under climate change.

Tang, Xiaolu↗

Belowground allocation and dynamics of recently fixed plant carbon in a California annual grassland

Plant roots and the organisms that surround them are a primary source for stabilized soil organic carbon (SOC). While grassland soils have a large capacity to store organic carbon (C), few field-based studies have quantified the amount of plant-fixed C that moves into soil and persists belowground over multiple years. Yet this characteristic of the soil C cycle is critical to C storage, soil water holding capacity, nutrient provisions, and the management of soil health. Here, we tracked the fate of plant-fixed C following a five-day 13 CO 2 labeling of a Northern California annual grassland, measuring C pools starting at the end of the labeling period, at three days, four weeks, six months, one year, and two years. Soil organic carbon was fractionated using a density-based approach to separate the free-light fraction (FLF), occluded-light fraction (OLF), and heavy fraction (HF). Using isotope ratio mass spectrometry, we measured 13 C enrichment and total C content for plant shoots, roots, soil, soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and the FLF, OLF, and HF. The chemical nature of C in the HF was further analyzed by solid state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy.

13C-NMR↗

Enzymatically hydrolyzed fluorescence-based chemical probe enables in situ mapping of chitinase activity in the rhizosphere

Rhizosphere microbiomes and root exudates play a pivotal biochemical role in helping to catalyze chitin catabolism. Chitin is a recalcitrant and ubiquitous soil biopolymer, estimated to be the second most abundant organic soil biopolymer on Earth. Despite its abundance, role as a source of C and N in soil, and importance to ecosystem function, the biochemical mechanisms controlling chitin fate in the rhizosphere are elusive and poorly understood. To enable spatial mapping of chitinase activity in the rhizosphere, we designed and synthesized an enzymatically activated fluorogenic substrate, chitotriose-TokyoGreen (chitotriose-TG), by incorporating a fluorescein derivative (TG) onto the trimeric unit of chitin. This non-fluorescent substrate is selectively hydrolyzed by chitinase to release TG and yield a high fluorescence signal, which can be used to spatially image and measure chitinase activity in the rhizosphere. To demonstrate the application of this technique, we grew switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) in rhizoboxes amended with a horizontal layer of chitin. We extracted mobile proteins from the rhizobox using a nitrocellulose membrane blotting technique which offer non-destructive enzyme extraction while preserving the 2D spatial position of the enzymes. We then subjected these membranes to the synthesized chitotriose-TG stain to spatially visualize the distribution of chitinase activity within the rhizosphere. Furthermore, we observed increased chitinase activity near plant roots and higher activity within the soil zone enriched in chitin, showing an adaptive response of chitinase activity with spatial focusing in areas of higher chitin abundance. Thus, the enzyme extraction and visualization strategy we describe here can help enlighten efforts to better understand spatial controls on chitin breakdown in rhizosphere, further elucidating the role of chitin as a C and N source in these systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aligning theoretical and empirical representations of soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry with process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models

Soil carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry acts as a control over decomposition and soil organic matter formation and loss, making it a key soil property for understanding ecosystem dynamics and projected ecosystems responses to global environmental change. However, the controls of soil C:N and how they respond to increasing pressures from global change agents are not fully understood. The “foundational” controls on soil C:N, namely plant and microbial C:N, have been used to predict soil C:N, but fail to accurately simulate all ecosystems and may be insufficient for predictions under global environmental change. Here we present an “emerging” representation of controls of soil C:N that includes plant-microbe-mineral feedbacks that have been shown to regulate soil C:N. We argue that including representation of these emerging drivers in process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, which include biological N fixation, mycorrhizae, priming, root exudation of organic acids, and mineralogy (including soil texture, mineral composition, and aggregation), will improve mechanistic representation of soil C:N and associated processes. Such improvements will produce models that will better simulate a variety of ecological states and predict soil C:N when global changes modify plant-microbe-mineral interactions. Here, we align our empirical understanding of controls of soil C:N with those controls represented in models, identifying contexts where emerging drivers might be particularly important to represent (e.g., priming and root exudation in nutrient-limited conditions) and areas of future work. Additionally, we show that implementing emerging drivers of soil C:N results in different simulated outcomes at steady state and in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Our review and preliminary simulations support the need to incorporate emerging drivers of soil C:N into process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, allowing for both theoretical exploration of mechanisms and potentially more accurate predictions of land biogeochemical responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shrub and sedge rhizosphere communities display distinct affinities toward exudates and soil organic matter degradation: a quantitative stable isotope probing analysis

Warming temperatures are accelerating permafrost thaw and changing tundra vegetation, where woody shrubs are displacing sedges. Shrubs, such as Betula nana, and sedges, such as Eriophorum vaginatum, exhibit distinct life strategies including unique root-associated, or rhizosphere microbial communities. As permafrost thaws it unlocks previously unavailable carbon and nutrient sources resulting in deeper roots and a translocation of rhizosphere communities. Because permafrost microbial communities contain lower diversity and biomass than rhizosphere communities, the coalescence of rhizosphere and permafrost microbial communities could alter soil organic matter (SOM) degradation rates and increase greenhouse gas emissions. To identify metabolic strategies across distinct rhizosphere and permafrost microbial communities we conducted an isotope tracing incubation experiment. We inoculated thawed permafrost with shrub and sedge rhizosphere communities while adding exudates or water daily and compared this to an uninoculated control. After 46 days, we spiked samples with 18O enriched water or 13C enriched exudates and measured isotope incorporation into microbial DNA with quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP). Our results indicate that exudate additions had little effect on uninoculated permafrost communities but the addition of exudates and rhizosphere inoculants had a compounding effect on respiration rates. We found that soils inoculated with shrub rhizosphere communities contained a mixture of exudate and SOM degraders while soils inoculated with sedge rhizosphere communities contained mainly SOM degraders. Finally, we found that individual microbial taxa exhibited maximum growth rates under specific combinations of microbial inoculant communities and exudate addition treatments. Our results reveal that microbial niches are strongly influenced by substrate preferences and community context, and suggest that a reduction in sedges and an expansion of shrubs may provide a mechanism by which permafrost carbon losses are mitigated through corresponding shifts in microbial communities and their substrate preferences.

Schaefer, Sean R [Natural Resources and Earth Syst↗

Toward accurate prediction of partial-penetration laser weld performance informed by three-dimensional characterization – Part II: μCT based finite element simulations

The mechanical behavior of partial-penetration laser welds exhibits significant variability in engineering quantities such as strength and apparent ductility. Understanding the root cause of this variability is important when using such welds in engineering designs. In Part II of this work, we develop finite element simulations with geometry derived from micro-computed tomography (μCT) scans of partial-penetration 304L stainless steel laser welds that were analyzed in Part I. We use these models to study the effects of the welds’ small-scale geometry, including porosity and weld depth variability, on the structural performance metrics of weld ductility and strength under quasi-static tensile loading. We show that this small-scale geometry is the primary cause of the observed variability for these mechanical response quantities. Additionally, we explore the sensitivity of model results to the conversion of the μCT data to discretized model geometry using different segmentation algorithms, and to the effect of small-scale geometry simplifications for pore shape and weld root texture. The modeling approach outlined and results of this work may be applicable to other material systems with small-scale geometric features and defects, such as additively manufactured materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Computing the viscous effect in early-time drop impact dynamics

The impact of a liquid drop on a solid surface involves many intertwined physical effects, and is influenced by drop velocity, surface tension, ambient pressure and liquid viscosity, among others. Experiments by Kolinski et al. ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 112, no. 13, 2014 b , p. 134501) show that the liquid–air interface begins to deviate away from the solid surface even before contact. They found that the lift-off of the interface starts at a critical time that scales with the square root of the kinematic viscosity of the liquid. To understand this, we study the approach of a liquid drop towards a solid surface in the presence of an intervening gas layer. We take a numerical approach to solve the Navier–Stokes equations for the liquid, coupled to the compressible lubrication equations for the gas, in two dimensions. With this approach, we recover the experimentally captured early time effect of liquid viscosity on the drop impact, but our results show that lift-off time and liquid kinematic viscosity have a more complex dependence than the square-root scaling relationship. We also predict the effect of interfacial tension at the liquid–gas interface on the drop impact, showing that it mediates the lift-off behaviour.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Soil Carbon Stocks Not Linked to Aboveground Litter Input and Chemistry of Old-Growth Forest and Adjacent Prairie

The long-standing assumption that aboveground plant litter inputs have a substantial influence on soil organic carbon storage (SOC) and dynamics has been challenged by a new paradigm for SOC formation and persistence. We tested the importance of plant litter chemistry on SOC storage, distribution, composition, and age by comparing two highly contrasting ecosystems: an old-growth coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest, with highly aromatic litter, and an adjacent coastal prairie, with more easily decomposed litter. We hypothesized that if plant litter chemistry was the primary driver, redwood would store more and older SOC that was less microbially processed than prairie. Total soil carbon stocks to 110 cm depth were higher in prairie (35 kg C m —2 ) than redwood (28 kg C m —2 ). Radiocarbon values indicated shorter SOC residence times in redwood than prairie throughout the profile. Higher amounts of pyrogenic carbon and a higher degree of microbial processing of SOC appear to be instrumental for soil carbon storage and persistence in prairie, while differences in fine-root carbon inputs likely contribute to younger SOC in redwood. We conclude that at these sites fire residues, root inputs, and soil properties influence soil carbon dynamics to a greater degree than the properties of aboveground litter.

13C-NMR spectroscopy↗

Impacts of Anisotropic Porosity on Heat Transfer and Off-Gassing during Biomass Pyrolysis

The pore structure of biogenic materials imbues the ability to deliver water and nutrients through a plant from root to leaf. This anisotropic pore granularity can also play a significant role in processes such as biomass pyrolysis that are used to convert these materials into useful products like heat, fuel, and chemicals. Evolutions in modeling of biomass pyrolysis as well as imaging of pore structures allow for further insights into the concerted physics of phase change-induced off-gassing, heat transfer, and chemical reactions. In this work, we report a biomass single particle model which incorporates these physics to explore the impact of implementing anisotropic permeability and diffusivity on the conversion time and yields predicted for pyrolysis of oak and pine particles. Simulation results showed that anisotropic permeability impacts predicted conversion time more than 2 times when the Biot number is above 0.1 and pyrolysis numbers (Py 1 , Py 2 ) are less than 20. Pore structure significantly impacts predicted pyrolytic conversion time (>8 times) when the Biot number is above 1 and the pyrolysis number is below 1, i.e., the “conduction controlled” regime. Therefore, these nondimensional numbers reflect that when internal heat conduction limits pyrolysis performance, internal pyrolysis off-gassing further retards effective heat transfer rates as a closely coupled phenomenon. Overall, this study highlights physically meaningful opportunities to improve particle-scale pyrolysis modeling and experimental validation relevant to a variety of feedstock identities and preparations, guiding the future design of pyrolyzers for efficient biomass conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Understanding the Origin of the Nonpassivating Behavior of Si-Based Anodes during the Initial Cycles

In this contribution, we combined electrochemical cycling and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) to understand the nonpassivating behavior of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) on Si anodes during the first cycles. Based on galvanostatic measurements, we show that the irreversible capacity loss is reduced after the first cycle, and it stays almost constant from the second cycle onwards. XPS was used to determine the root causes of the Coulombic inefficiency, showing that the rate of decomposition of the organic solvents strongly decreased after the first cycle, whereas the rate of salt decomposition is almost unchanged between cycles. We determine that the inhibition of the decomposition reaction of the organic solvent is responsible for the lower Coulombic loss during the second electrochemical cycle in comparison to the first, whereas the nonpassivating behavior toward the salt decomposition is one of the main causes of capacity loss upon cycling. Here, we further revisit the role of cracking in contributing to capacity loss. Whereas high volumetric expansion remains an issue plaguing the performance of Si anodes, our chronoamperometry studies reveal that the SEI formed on Si anodes does not passivate even when the electrode is fully expanded, and no additional surface is exposed. Overall, our work establishes the need to address the chemical and electrochemical instability of the SEI on the Si anode in addition to the more notorious issue of cracking.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗