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At least 847 records · Page 47

Application of lagged averaged forecasting to medium range forecasting

The lagged average forecast (LAF) method for predicting and compensating for forecast error growth is applied to two 100 day samples of 10 day forecasts at the 500 mb altitude for winter-summer 1980-81. The LAF parameterizes the forecast error growth in order to weight the forecast with regression calculations. A 5 day LAF forecast was generated for a 10 day forecast made with a 1681 d.o.f. model which produced predictions using a truncated spherical harmonic expansion. A 100 day data set was employed, with the first 90 days serving for LAF forecasts for the model forecast. Significant improvements were obtained in the model forecast when the LAF weightings were introduced into the model variables.

Dalcher, A.↗

Validation of aerodynamic parameters at high angles of attack for RAE high incidence research models

Two series of free-flight tests have been conducted for combat aircraft configuration research models in order to investigate flight behavior near departure conditions as well as to obtain response data from which aerodynamic characteristics can be derived. The structure of the mathematical model and values for the mathematical derivatives have been obtained through an analysis of the first series, using stepwise regression. The results thus obtained are the bases of the design of active control laws. Flight test results for a novel configuration are compared with predicted responses.

Ross, A. Jean↗

Superluminal radio sources - What does X-ray emission tell us?

In a study on superluminal radio sources, statistical relationships between X-ray, optical, and radio luminosities among different categories of active galactic nuclei are compared to search for common energy mechanisms. The X-ray versus optical and X-ray versus radio correlations of radio-loud QSOs and superluminal radio sources are found to be similar, arguing against a model in which the emission in only one or two of the three wave bands is relativistically boosted. A regression analysis shows that highly polarized QSOs and optically violently variable QSOs are more similar to other flat-spectrum, radio-loud QSOs than to BL Lac objects, and it is reasonable to assume that self-Compton emission dominates the X-ray emission from at least half of the sources in this class. The X-ray versus radio correlation for BL Lac objects is poor, and there is support for the hypothesis that their X-ray emission is dominated by an isotropic component which is not directly related to relativistically boosted radio emission.

Worrall, Diana M.↗

Is CO2 ice permanent?

Carbon dioxide ice has been inferred to exist at the south pole in summertime, but Earth based measurements in 1969 of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere suggest that all CO2 ice sublined from the southern polar cap and exposed underlying water ice. This implies that the observed summertime CO2 ice is of recent origin. It appears possible to construct an energy balance model that maintains seasonal CO2 ice at the south pole year round and still reasonably simulates the polar cap regression and atmospheric pressure data. This implies that the CO2 ice observed in the summertime south polar cap could be seasonal in origin, and that minor changes in climate could cause CO2 ice to completely vanish, as would appear to have happened in 1969. However, further research remains before it is certain whether the CO2 ice observed in the summertime south polar cap is seasonal or is part of a permanent reservoir.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

Effect of Wind Speed on Aerosol Optical Depth over Remote Oceans, Based on Data from the Maritime Aerosol Network

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. The MAN archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we investigate correlations between ship-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) and near-surface wind speed, either measured (onboard or from satellite) or modeled (NCEP). According to our analysis, wind speed influences columnar aerosol optical depth, although the slope of the linear regression between AOD and wind speed is not steep (approx. 0.004 - 0.005), even for strong winds over 10m/s. The relationships show significant scatter (correlation coefficients typically in the range 0.3 - 0.5); the majority of this scatter can be explained by the uncertainty on the input data. The various wind speed sources considered yield similar patterns. Results are in good agreement with the majority of previously published relationships between surface wind speed and ship-based or satellite-based AOD measurements. The basic relationships are similar for all the wind speed sources considered; however, the gradient of the relationship varies by around a factor of two depending on the wind data used

Smirnov, A.↗

Wave Setup at the Minamitorishima Tide Gauge

A tide gauge situated on the western shore of Minamitorishima, a small atoll in the western Pacific, has measured sea levels significantly impacted by wave setup. Evidence for this rests with (a) strong correlations between sea level anomalies and high swell and (b) sea-level differences with satellite altimetry that display near-linear dependence on offshore swell heights (regression coefficient 30 cm per meter of swell). Setup is primarily induced by swell from the northwest. We develop models of wave setup which lead to corrected sea levels better reflecting the surrounding ocean, and thus more readily useful to studies of regional sea level and practical applications such as altimetry calibration. The wave setup is also evidently affecting measurements of the tide, with suppressed tide amplitudes in winter when swell is generally largest. In February 2020 the tide gauge was relocated to the southern shore of the island, and the wave setup is now markedly reduced.

Wave setup↗

Estimating Blade Section Airloads from Blade Leading-Edge Pressure Measurements

The Tilt-Rotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) test in the Duitse-Nederlandse Wind (DNW) Tunnel acquired blade pressure data for forward flight test conditions of a tiltrotor in helicopter mode. Chordwise pressure data at seven radial locations were integrated to obtain the blade section normal force. The present investigation evaluates the use of linear regression analysis and of neural networks in estimating the blade section normal force coefficient from a limited number of blade leading-edge pressure measurements and representative operating conditions. These network models are subsequently used to estimate the airloads at intermediate radial locations where only blade pressure measurements at the 3.5% chordwise stations are available.

vanAken, Johannes M.↗

The benefit of brightness temperature assimilation for the SMAP Level-4 surface and root-zone soil moisture analysis

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 (L4) product provides global estimates of surface soil moisture (SSM) and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) via the assimilation of SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Here, using in situ measurements from 2474 sites in China, we evaluate the performance of soil moisture estimates from the L4 data assimilation (DA) system and from a baseline “open-loop” (OL) simulation of CLSM without Tb assimilation. Using random forest regression, the efficiency of the L4 DA system (i.e., the performance improvement in DA relative to OL) is attributed to eight control factors related to the CLSM as well as τ–ω radiative transfer model (RTM) components of the L4 system. Results show that the Spearman rank correlation (R) for L4 SSM with in situ measurements increases for 77 % of the in situ measurement locations (relative to that of OL), with an average R increase of approximately 14 % (ΔR=0.056). RZSM skill is improved for about 74 % of the in situ measurement locations, but the average R increase for RZSM is only 7 % (ΔR=0.034). Results further show that the SSM DA skill improvement is most strongly related to the difference between the RTM-simulated Tb and the SMAP Tb observation, followed by the error in precipitation forcing data and estimated microwave soil roughness parameter h. For the RZSM DA skill improvement, these three dominant control factors remain the same, although the importance of soil roughness exceeds that of the Tb simulation error, as the soil roughness strongly affects the ingestion of DA increments and further propagation to the subsurface. For the skill of the L4 and OL estimates themselves, the top two control factors are the precipitation error and the SSM–RZSM coupling strength error, both of which are related to the CLSM component of the L4 system. Finally, we find that the L4 system can effectively filter out errors in precipitation. Therefore, future development of the L4 system should focus on improving the characterization of the SSM–RZSM coupling strength.

Jianxiu Qiu↗

An Updated Geomagnetic Index-Based Model for Determining the Latitudinal Extent of Energetic Electron Precipitation

Energetic Electron Precipitation (EEP) from the Earth's plasma sheet and the radiation belts is an important feature of atmospheric dynamics through their destruction of ozone in the lower thermosphere and mesosphere. Therefore, understanding the magnitude of the atmospheric impact of the Sun-Earth interaction requires a comprehensive understanding of the intensity and location of EEP. This study improves the accuracy of a previous pressure-corrected Dst model that predicts the equatorward extent of >43, >114, and >292 keV EEP using the measurements from the Medium Energy Proton Electron Detector detector of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and EUMETSAT/METOP satellites. The improvement is achieved through multiple linear regression of pressure-corrected Dst and pressure-corrected Ring Current (RC) indices. The RC index mitigates the baseline variation of the Dst index that created an inherent solar cycle bias in the previous model. The new model is then extended to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) after removing the South Atlantic Anomaly longitudes from the data. More than 80% of the residuals lie within ±1.8° Corrected Geomagnetic Latitude (CGMLat) in the Northern Hemisphere and within ±1.98° CGMLat in the SH.

E. M. Babu↗

Regressed relations for forced convection heat transfer in a direct injection stratified charge rotary engine

Currently, the heat transfer equation used in the rotary combustion engine (RCE) simulation model is taken from piston engine studies. These relations have been empirically developed by the experimental input coming from piston engines whose geometry differs considerably from that of the RCE. The objective of this work was to derive equations to estimate heat transfer coefficients in the combustion chamber of an RCE. This was accomplished by making detailed temperature and pressure measurements in a direct injection stratified charge (DISC) RCE under a range of conditions. For each specific measurement point, the local gas velocity was assumed equal to the local rotor tip speed. Local physical properties of the fluids were then calculated. Two types of correlation equations were derived and are described in this paper. The first correlation expresses the Nusselt number as a function of the Prandtl number, Reynolds number, and characteristic temperature ratio; the second correlation expresses the forced convection heat transfer coefficient as a function of fluid temperature, pressure and velocity.

Lee, Chi M.↗

Regressed relations for forced convection heat transfer in a direct injection stratified charge rotary engine

Currently, the heat transfer equation used in the rotary combustion engine (RCE) simulation model is taken from piston engine studies. These relations have been empirically developed by the experimental input coming from piston engines whose geometry differs considerably from that of the RCE. The objective of this work was to derive equations to estimate heat transfer coefficients in the combustion chamber of an RCE. This was accomplished by making detailed temperature and pressure measurements in a direct injection stratified charge (DISC) RCE under a range of conditions. For each specific measurement point, the local gas velocity was assumed equal to the local rotor tip speed. Local physical properties of the fluids were then calculated. Two types of correlation equations were derived and are described in this paper. The first correlation expresses the Nusselt number as a function of the Prandtl number, Reynolds number, and characteristic temperature ratio; the second correlation expresses the forced convection heat transfer coefficient as a function of fluid temperature, pressure and velocity.

Lee, Chi M.↗

Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter Using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors

We estimated global fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations using information from satellite-, simulation- and monitor-based sources by applying a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to global geophysically-based satellite-derived PM(sub 2.5) estimates. Aerosol optical depth from multiple satellite products (MISR, MODIS Dark Target, MODIS and SeaWiFS Deep Blue, and MODIS MAIAC) was combined with simulation (GEOS-Chem) based upon their relative uncertainties as determined using ground-based sun photometer (AERONET) observations for 1998−2014. The GWR predictors included simulated aerosol composition and land use information. The resultant PM(sub 2.5) estimates were highly consistent (R(sup 2) equals 0.81) with out-of-sample cross-validated PM(sub 2.5) concentrations from monitors. The global population-weighted annual average PM(sub 2.5) concentrations were 3-fold higher than the 10 micrograms per cubic meter WHO guideline, driven by exposures in Asian and African regions. Estimates in regions with high contributions from mineral dust were associated with higher uncertainty, resulting from both sparse ground-based monitoring, and challenging conditions for retrieval and simulation. This approach demonstrates that the addition of even sparse ground-based measurements to more globally continuous PM(sub 2.5) data sources can yield valuable improvements to PM(sub 2.5) characterization on a global scale.

aerosols↗

Application of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics for Physics-Informed Learning

Advances in machine learning and deep neural networks has enabled complex engineering tasks like image recognition, anomaly detection, regression, and multi-objective optimization, to name but a few. The complexity of the algorithm architecture, e.g., the number of hidden layers in a deep neural network, typically grows with the complexity of the problems they are required to solve, leaving little room for interpreting (or explaining) the path that results in a specific solution. This drawback is particularly relevant for autonomous aerospace and aviation systems, where certifications require a complete understanding of the algorithm behavior in all possible scenarios. Including physics knowledge in such data-driven tools may improve the interpretability of the algorithms, thus enhancing model validation against events with low probability but relevant for system certification. Such events include, for example, spacecraft or aircraft sub-system failures, for which data may not be available in the training phase. This paper investigates a recent physics-informed learning algorithm for identification of system dynamics, and shows how the governing equations of a system can be extracted from data using sparse regression. The learned relationships can be utilized as a surrogate model which, unlike typical data-driven surrogate models, relies on the learned underlying dynamics of the system rather than large number of fitting parameters. The work shows that the algorithm can reconstruct the differential equations underlying the observed dynamics using a single trajectory when no uncertainty is involved. However, the training set size must increase when dealing with stochastic systems, e.g., nonlinear dynamics with random initial conditions.

Corbetta, Matteo↗

Condensed phase details in the time-independent combustion of AP/composite propellants

The problem of nonmetallized ammonium perchlorate (AP)/composite propellant combustion is studied with the aim of coherently interpreting apparently diverse experimental data. Three fundamental hypotheses are introduced: the extent of propellant degradation at the vaporization step has to be specified through a scientific criterion; condensed phase degradation of AP to vaporizable fragments is the overall rate-limiting reaction; the rate of combustion in the gas phase is controlled by diffusive-mixing processes. Theoretical predictions of the regression rates of AP are seen to match well with experimental observations. Theoretical curves of regression rate are presented for a typical composite propellant. It is seen through analyses that either of the two familiar models for the gas phase (flame sheet approximation and uniform combustion) describes the general behavior adequately, hence de-emphasizing the role of gas phase details in propellant combustion.

Kumar, R. N.↗

Literature review of some selected types of results and statistical analyses of total-ozone data

The depletion of ozone in the stratosphere is examined, and causes for the depletion are cited. Ground station and satellite measurements of ozone, which are taken on a worldwide basis, are discussed. Instruments used in ozone measurement are discussed, such as the Dobson spectrophotometer, which is credited with providing the longest and most extensive series of observations for ground based observation of stratospheric ozone. Other ground based instruments used to measure ozone are also discussed. The statistical differences of ground based measurements of ozone from these different instruments are compared to each other, and to satellite measurements. Mathematical methods (i.e., trend analysis or linear regression analysis) of analyzing the variability of ozone concentration with respect to time and lattitude are described. Various time series models which can be employed in accounting for ozone concentration variability are examined.

Myers, R. H.↗

A LANDSAT study of ephemeral and perennial rangeland vegetation and soils

The author has identified the following significant results. Several methods of computer processing were applied to LANDSAT data for mapping vegetation characteristics of perennial rangeland in Montana and ephemeral rangeland in Arizona. The choice of optimal processing technique was dependent on prescribed mapping and site condition. Single channel level slicing and ratioing of channels were used for simple enhancement. Predictive models for mapping percent vegetation cover based on data from field spectra and LANDSAT data were generated by multiple linear regression of six unique LANDSAT spectral ratios. Ratio gating logic and maximum likelihood classification were applied successfully to recognize plant communities in Montana. Maximum likelihood classification did little to improve recognition of terrain features when compared to a single channel density slice in sparsely vegetated Arizona. LANDSAT was found to be more sensitive to differences between plant communities based on percentages of vigorous vegetation than to actual physical or spectral differences among plant species.

Bentley, R. G., Jr.↗

Assessment of wetland productive capacity from a remote-sensing-based model - A NASA/NMFS joint research project

NASA and the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service have undertaken the development of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) technology for the evaluation of the usefulness of wetlands to estuarine fish and shellfish production. Toward this end, a remote sensing-based Productive Capacity model has been developed which characterizes the biological and hydrographic features of a Gulf Coast Marsh to predict detrital export. Regression analyses of TM simulator data for wetland plant production estimation are noted to more accurately estimate the percent of total vegetative cover than biomass, indicating that a nonlinear relationship may be involved.

Butera, M. K.↗

Broadband transmission functions for atmospheric IR flux computations and climate studies

In order to reduce the size of precomputed tables which are used in the emissivity approach to computing IR radiation in a climate model, the three-dimensional transmission function in the water vapor bands is defined in this study by a simple regression equation consisting of three two-dimensional parameters. The transmittances in the 9.6 and 15 micron bands are individually parameterized as functions of the amount of scaled absorber. This approach can thus be applied to atmospheres with a variable CO2 concentration.

Chou, M.-D.↗