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DOE OSTI2025

Validation of RANS Models for Predicting Bypass Flow in Prismatic VHTRs

In prismatic Very-High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs), gaps occur between neighboring fuel assemblies referred to as bypass gaps. This work aims to measure the flow distribution between the bypass gaps between neighboring assemblies and the coolant channels within the assemblies. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was done using Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) modeling in STAR-CCM+ to assess the ability of RANS models to accurately capture this phenomena. The RANS results were compared to experimental worked performed by Seoul National University (SNU) and Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) for validation. The CFD results showed good comparison with the experimental data available from SNU and flow split was characterized for multiple configurations, inlet mass flow rates, and bypass gap sizes.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning Planar Ising Models Software

Learning Planar Ising Models is a software package written in Matlab for learning relationships among variable in a dataset using graphical models. The software package implements a generally-applicable algorithm for learning planar Ising models from any multivariate dataset. The code provides an algorithm for learning the best planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. The software includes demonstrations of the algorithm in simulations and for applications on publicly available datasets. Details of the algorithm, demonstration simulations, and applications are given in Johnson, et al; 2016. Reference: Johnson, J. K., Oyen, D., Chertkov, M., and Netrapalli, P. (2016). Learning planar Ising models. Journal of Machine Learning Research.

Oyen, Diane↗

DOE OSTI2020

H2OI95: A Stand-Alone Fortran Code for Evaluating the IAPWS-95 Equation-of-State Model for Water (Rev. 1)

H2OI95 is a stand-alone Fortran code for evaluating the IAPWS-95 equation-of-state model for the thermodynamic properties of water. It also evaluates the corresponding thermochemical properties of water consistent with the CODATA recommendations. The IAPWS-95 model is based on a model equation for the dimensionless Helmholtz energy for which the primary variables are the inverse reduced temperature (τ = T cr /T ) and reduced density (δ = ρ/ρ cr ). Here T is the absolute temperature (K), ρ is density (kg/m³), and the subscript “ cr ” refers to the critical point of water (647.096 K and 22.064 MPa pressure in this model, for which ρ cr is 322 kg/m³). The code solves four basic types of problems, distinguished by the specified inputs: 1. Temperature (K) and density (ρ kg/m³) or reduced density (δ) 2. Temperature (K) and pressure (MPa). 3. Temperature (K) on the saturation (liquid-vapor equilibrium) curve 4. Pressure (MPa) on the saturation curve. Each type of problem is run using a corresponding input (text) file. All but the first type of problem require iteration. For example, to solve for desired temperature and pressure, the reduced density must be adjusted to give the desired pressure. Iteration is accomplished using the Newton-Raphson method, though the secant method is also used in solving the fourth type of problem. For the last three types of problems, H2OI95 has been used to conduct numerical studies of convergence and the problem of multiple numerical solutions, some of which are not physically valid. Obtaining valid results depends mainly on appropriate choice of starting values for the density. The default values used in H2OI95 appear to consistently lead to generally desired results. With modification (not addressed here), H2OI95 can be used to support SUPCRT92 and similar codes that compute chemical thermodynamic properties of species and reactions over a wide range of temperature and pressure (273.16-1273K and 0-1000 MPa). Version 1.1 of this software calculates an extended set of water properties, including some derivable solely from IAPWS-95, such as the isobaric thermal expansivity and the isothermal compressibility, and still other properties based on supplementary models sanctioned by IAPWS, including the dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, and static dielectric constant, and various other properties (notably Debye-Hückel parameters) derivable from the dielectric constant and its partial derivatives with respect to temperature and pressure. A coding error in Version 1.0 was identified while testing the implementation of the viscosity model. This error is described in Appendix C. It mainly affects calculation of “higher order” properties such as compressibility and heat capacity near the critical point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Itinerant ferromagnetism and intrinsic anomalous Hall effect in amorphous iron-germanium

The amorphous iron-germanium system ( a - Fe x Ge 1 - x ) lacks long-range structural order and hence lacks a significant Brillouin zone. The magnetization of a - Fe x Ge 1 - x is well explained by the Stoner model for Fe concentrations x above the onset of magnetic order around x = 0.4 , indicating that the local order of the amorphous structure preserves the spin-split density of states of the Fe- 3 d states sufficiently to polarize the electronic structure despite k being a bad quantum number. Measurements reveal an enhanced anomalous Hall resistivity ρ x y AH relative to crystalline FeGe; this ρ x y AH is compared to density-functional theory calculations of the anomalous Hall conductivity to resolve its underlying mechanisms. The intrinsic mechanism, typically understood as the Berry curvature integrated over occupied k states but shown here to be equivalent to the density of curvature integrated over occupied energies in aperiodic materials, dominates the anomalous Hall conductivity of a - Fe x Ge 1 - x ( 0.38 ≤ x ≤ 0.61 ). The density of curvature is the sum of spin-orbit correlations of local orbital states and can hence be calculated with no reference to k space. This effect and the accompanying Stoner-like model for the intrinsic anomalous Hall conductivity establish a unified understanding of the underlying physics of the anomalous Hall effect in both crystalline and disordered systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Represent precipitation-induced geological hazards in Earth system models using artificial intelligence

Precipitation-induced geological hazards, such as debris flow, landslides, mudflow and rockfalls (hereafter referred to as landslides), pose serious threats to public safety in many areas through the world. As residential properties and infrastructure in the US have increasingly expanded into landslide-prone areas and the drivers of landslides (e.g., wildfires and hurricanes) are predicted to intensify under climate warming, losses and fatalities from landslides are likely to increase in the future. Although our understanding of geoenvironmental factors and mechanisms contributing to landslides has greatly improved, only moderate progress has been made in predicting landslides out of well-studied watersheds. Furthermore, explicitly representing various landslide-related processes in Earth system models (ESMs), from the buckling of local bearing elements in granular materials, to frictional sliding between grains, formation of microcracks in the soil matrix, rupture of capillary bridges, or breakage of plant roots3 is still very unlikely within the next decade, even with the help of exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A reduced-order modeling of a tubular solar reactor for long duration thermochemical energy storage

The storage of solar energy in a solid form, referred to as a “solar fuel”, can be achieved through a process known as endothermic solar thermochemistry. This process transforms the absorbed solar energy into a stable and retrievable form that can be stored for extended periods of time. This paper presents a low–order heat transfer model of a counter–current tubular falling bed reactor designed to produce thermally reduced magnesium manganese oxide pellets for long duration thermochemical energy storage. The energy required for the endothermic reduction was supplied by concentrated solar energy or renewable electricity via indirect heating of the gas and solid reactants flowing in a ceramic tube. The counter-current gas flow enhances the mixing of the solid particles with the heat recuperation zone, allowing the gas and particles to enter and exit the tubular reactor close to room temperature. Further, the reactor was vertically oriented and was heated circumferentially by an adjustable level heat flux along a finite segment of its length. The temperature distribution of the reactor in response to transient changes along the tube was modeled by considering conduction, convection, and radiation heat transfer. Governing equations for the heat transfer model were solved by discretizing the reactor tube into a finite number of control volumes and using an energy balance for the heat exchange between the reactor wall, gas, and particles within the control volume. The energy absorbed during this endothermic reaction was modeled numerically by fitting the data of the chemical conversion rate with the corresponding temperature of particles in the heating zone. The numerical model has been experimentally validated using a reactor prototype made of a 121.92 cm alumina tube heated by a 7kW electric tube–furnace. The alumina tube receives magnesium manganese oxide pellets of 3.66±0.516 mm in diameter from the top, and a counter–current gas flow from the bottom. The reactor wall temperature was monitored by six thermocouples installed along the reactor tube length. The experimental procedure was numerically simulated, and the temperature variation along the reactor tube was compared with a matrix of experimental runs for a range of particles mass flowrates (0.75–1.25g/s) and corresponding gas flowrates (36–65 SLPM). The reactor system was heated gradually from room temperature to a steady state temperature of 1673K, and then cooled down to room temperature. The heating and cooling processes were simulated, and the numerical and experimental results were compared throughout processes. The numerical model showed similar trends to the experimental results, with an error of 0.69 to 7.9% for the particle inlet and 0.7 to 7.9% for the gas inlet during steady-state operation. The proposed numerical model can be implemented as a simplified physical model to design a feedback control system to regulate reactor temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scarcity of fixed carbon transfer in a model microbial phototroph–heterotroph interaction

Although the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has long served as a reference organism, few studies have interrogated its role as a primary producer in microbial interactions. Here, we quantitatively investigated C. reinhardtii’s capacity to support a heterotrophic microbe using the established coculture system with Mesorhizobium japonicum, a vitamin B 12 -producing α-proteobacterium. Using stable isotope probing and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (nanoSIMS), we tracked the flow of photosynthetic fixed carbon and consequent bacterial biomass synthesis under continuous and diurnal light with single-cell resolution. We found that more 13 C fixed by the alga was taken up by bacterial cells under continuous light, invalidating the hypothesis that the alga’s fermentative degradation of starch reserves during the night would boost M. japonicum heterotrophy. 15 NH 4 assimilation rates and changes in cell size revealed that M. japonicum cells reduced new biomass synthesis in coculture with the alga but continued to divide—a hallmark of nutrient limitation often referred to as reductive division. Despite this sign of starvation, the bacterium still synthesized vitamin B 12 and supported the growth of a B 12 -dependent C. reinhardtii mutant. Finally, we showed that bacterial proliferation could be supported solely by the algal lysis that occurred in coculture, highlighting the role of necromass in carbon cycling. Collectively, these results reveal the scarcity of fixed carbon in this microbial trophic relationship (particularly under environmentally relevant light regimes), demonstrate B 12 exchange even during bacterial starvation, and underscore the importance of quantitative approaches for assessing metabolic coupling in algal–bacterial interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-Frequency Stability Analysis of Inverter-Based Islanded Multiple-Bus AC Microgrids Based on Terminal Characteristics

For system planning of three-phase inverter-based islanded ac microgrids, the low frequency instability issue caused by interactions of inverter droop controllers is a major concern. When internal control information of procured commercial inverters is unknown, impedance-based small-signal stability criteria facilitate prediction of resonances in medium and high frequency ranges, but they usually assume the grid fundamental frequency as constant and thus they are incapable of analyzing the low-frequency oscillation of the fundamental frequency in islanded microgrids. Aiming at solving this issue, this paper proposes two stability analysis methods based on terminal characteristics of inverters and passive connection network including the dynamics of the fundamental frequency for analysis of low-frequency stability in islanded multiple-bus microgrids. Based on the Component Connection Method (CCM) to systematically separate inverters from the passive connection network, a general approach is developed to model the microgrid as a multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) negative feedback system in the common system d-q reference frame. By applying the generalized Nyquist stability criterion (GNC) to the return-ratio and return-difference matrices of the MIMO system model, the low-frequency stability related to the fundamental frequency can be analyzed using the measured terminal characteristics of inverters. Finally, analysis and simulation of a 37-bus microgrid verify the effectiveness of the proposed stability analysis methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

NMPFamsDB: a database of novel protein families from microbial metagenomes and metatranscriptomes

Abstract The Novel Metagenome Protein Families Database (NMPFamsDB) is a database of metagenome- and metatranscriptome-derived protein families, whose members have no hits to proteins of reference genomes or Pfam domains. Each protein family is accompanied by multiple sequence alignments, Hidden Markov Models, taxonomic information, ecosystem and geolocation metadata, sequence and structure predictions, as well as 3D structure models predicted with AlphaFold2. In its current version, NMPFamsDB hosts over 100 000 protein families, each with at least 100 members. The reported protein families significantly expand (more than double) the number of known protein sequence clusters from reference genomes and reveal new insights into their habitat distribution, origins, functions and taxonomy. We expect NMPFamsDB to be a valuable resource for microbial proteome-wide analyses and for further discovery and characterization of novel functions. NMPFamsDB is publicly available in http://www.nmpfamsdb.org/ or https://bib.fleming.gr/NMPFamsDB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the WRF-Solar Model Performance Using Satellite-Derived Irradiance from the National Solar Radiation Database

Abstract WRF-Solar is a numerical weather prediction model specifically designed to meet the increasing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasting. The model provides flexibility in the representation of the aerosol–cloud–radiation processes. This flexibility can be argued to make it more difficult to improve the model’s performance because of the necessity of inspecting different configurations. To alleviate this situation, WRF-Solar has a reference configuration to use as a benchmark in sensitivity experiments. However, the scarcity of high-quality ground observations is a handicap to accurately quantify the model performance. An alternative to ground observations are satellite irradiance retrievals. Herein we analyze the adequacy of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to validate the WRF-Solar performance using high-quality global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Based on the sufficient performance of NSRDB, we further analyze the WRF-Solar forecast errors across the CONUS, the growth of the forecasting errors as a function of the lead time, and sensitivities to the grid spacing and the representation of the radiative effects of unresolved clouds. Our results based on WRF-Solar forecasts spanning 2018 reveal a 7% median degradation of the mean absolute error (MAE) from the first to the second daytime period. Reducing the grid spacing from 9 to 3 km leads to a 4% improvement in the MAE, whereas activating the radiative effects of unresolved clouds is desirable over most of the CONUS even at 3 km of grid spacing. A systematic overestimation of the GHI is found. These results illustrate the potential of GHI retrievals to contribute to increasing the WRF-Solar performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking materials property prediction methods: the Matbench test set and Automatminer reference algorithm

Abstract We present a benchmark test suite and an automated machine learning procedure for evaluating supervised machine learning (ML) models for predicting properties of inorganic bulk materials. The test suite, Matbench, is a set of 13 ML tasks that range in size from 312 to 132k samples and contain data from 10 density functional theory-derived and experimental sources. Tasks include predicting optical, thermal, electronic, thermodynamic, tensile, and elastic properties given a material’s composition and/or crystal structure. The reference algorithm, Automatminer, is a highly-extensible, fully automated ML pipeline for predicting materials properties from materials primitives (such as composition and crystal structure) without user intervention or hyperparameter tuning. We test Automatminer on the Matbench test suite and compare its predictive power with state-of-the-art crystal graph neural networks and a traditional descriptor-based Random Forest model. We find Automatminer achieves the best performance on 8 of 13 tasks in the benchmark. We also show our test suite is capable of exposing predictive advantages of each algorithm—namely, that crystal graph methods appear to outperform traditional machine learning methods given ~10 4 or greater data points. We encourage evaluating materials ML algorithms on the Matbench benchmark and comparing them against the latest version of Automatminer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Frontiers in Geoengineering Research

In late summer 2019, the ninth annual workshop of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP; http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP) convened at Beijing Normal University (Fig. 1). This meeting was held in conjunction with a summer school in which 89 participants from five continents learned about climate modeling of solar geoengineering, also known as climate engineering or climate intervention. Solar geoengineering refers to “radiation management” methods, which involve deliberate manipulations of the radiation budget through potential technologies such as stratospheric sulfate aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus thinning, but not CO2 removal. The students at the summer school were mainly physical science majors, with many from China, but also included some social science people. The summer school was focused on impact modeling (e.g., on agriculture and the cryosphere) and consideration of extremes, rather than just looking at climate modeloutput. There were also lectures on governance and economics. This event signifies the first major international geoengineering meeting held in Asia.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning of dynamically responsive chemical Hamiltonians with semiempirical quantum mechanics

Conventional machine-learning (ML) models in computational chemistry learn to directly predict molecular properties using quantum chemistry only for reference data. While these heuristic ML methods show quantum-level accuracy with speeds several orders of magnitude faster than traditional quantum chemistry methods, they suffer from poor extensibility and transferability; i.e., their accuracy degrades on large or new chemical systems. Incorporating quantum chemistry frameworks into the ML models directly solves this problem. Here we take the structure of semiempirical quantum mechanics (SEQM) methods to construct dynamically responsive Hamiltonians. SEQM methods use empirical parameters fitted to experimental properties to construct reduced-order Hamiltonians, facilitating much faster calculations than ab initio methods but with compromised accuracy. By replacing these static parameters with machine-learned dynamic values inferred from the local environment, we greatly improve the accuracy of the SEQM methods. Trained on molecular energies and atomic forces, these dynamically generated Hamiltonian parameters show a strong correlation with atomic hybridization and bonding. Trained with only about 60,000 small organic molecular conformers, the resulting model retains interpretability, extensibility, and transferability when testing on much larger chemical systems and predicting various molecular properties. Overall, this work demonstrates the virtues of incorporating physics-based descriptions with ML to develop models that are simultaneously accurate, transferable, and interpretable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing transmit field inhomogeneity of parallel RF transmit design in 7T MRI using deep learning

Ultrahigh field (UHF) Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) provides a higher signal-to-noise ratio and, thereby, higher spatial resolution. However, UHF MRI introduces challenges such as transmit radiofrequency (RF) field (B+1) inhomogeneities, leading to uneven flip angles and image intensity anomalies. These issues can significantly degrade imaging quality and its medical applications. This study addresses B+1 field homogeneity through a novel deep learning-based strategy. Traditional methods like Magnitude Least Squares (MLS) optimization have been effective but are time-consuming and dependent on the patient’s presence. Recent machine learning approaches, such as RF Shim Prediction by Iteratively Projected Ridge Regression and deep learning frameworks, have shown promise but face limitations like extensive training times and oversimplified architectures. We propose a two-step deep learning strategy. First, we obtain the desired reference RF shimming weights from multi-channel B+1 fields using random-initialized Adaptive Moment Estimation. Then, we employ Residual Networks (ResNets) to train a model that maps B+1 fields to target RF shimming outputs. Our approach does not rely on pre-calculated reference optimizations for the testing process and efficiently learns residual functions. Comparative studies with traditional MLS optimization demonstrate our method’s advantages in terms of speed and accuracy. The proposed strategy achieves a faster and more efficient RF shimming design, significantly improving imaging quality at UHF. This advancement holds potential for broader applications in medical imaging and diagnostics.

Lu, Zhengyi [Vanderbilt University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Technical Report on Waveform Fit Metrics for Global Models

The new WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes an increased emphasis on the development of Earth models and methods to predict entire seismic and acoustic waveforms more accurately. In general, this increased emphasis is predicated on the need to better characterize seismic events and provide improved model-based discrimination between event types including earthquakes and explosions. More specifically, while current moment tensor inversion methods tend to work well for larger events (M>~4) using tuned 1-D Earth models, the development of state-of-the-art 3-D models and methods is required for the prediction of shorter period waves over large areas for discrimination of smaller events. There is no standard metric for model-based waveform prediction accuracy used in the waveform modeling/inversion community. However, there are several popular waveform misfit definitions; and minimizing the corresponding objective functions is the goal of waveform inversion. Some example misfit definitions employed for adjoint waveform tomography include measures of simple travel time differences (e.g. Tape et al., 2010), cross-correlation travel time differences (e.g. Luo and Schuster, 1991), multi-taper frequency dependent methods (e.g. Lei et al., 2020), time-frequency phase misfit functions (e.g. Fichtner 2010; Rodgers et al., 2022), normalized cross-correlation methods (e.g. Tao et al., 2018), and others. In some cases, these misfit definitions also involve complicated weighting schemes and summations over multiple frequency bands making it difficult to duplicate the misfit measurement with alternative models and datasets. Although each of the misfit definitions mentioned above are useful for developing waveform models, the actual misfit values are not usually meaningful outside of a given project, model, and/or dataset. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and communicate model performance for predicting waveforms and comparing to other models and/or new model iterations with a different dataset. Therefore, there is a need for a generalized method for evaluating overall model performance that is independent from the specific misfit chosen to develop the waveform models that is also intuitive and meaningful. In this report, we describe a new metric we refer to as ‘Percent of Correlated Signal’. The following sections describe and demonstrate the metric with a case study event and a more rigorous test using a random selection of globally distributed events. While the focus here is on global tomography models, the metric is meant to applicable to regional ‘wiggle-for-wiggle’ waveform models/studies as well.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗