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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale modeling high-order methods and data-driven modeling

Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) comprise a promising set of data-driven approaches for accelerating the simulation of high-fidelity numerical simulations. Standard projection-based ROM approaches, however, suffer from several drawbacks when applied to the complex nonlinear dynamical systems commonly encountered in science and engineering. These limitations include a lack of stability, accuracy, and sharp a posteriori error estimators. This work addresses these limitations by leveraging multiscale modeling, least-squares principles, and machine learning to develop novel reduced-order modeling approaches, along with data-driven a posteriori error estimators, for dynamical systems. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the two ROM approaches developed in this work - namely the windowed least-squares method and the Adjoint Petrov - Galerkin method - yield substantial improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Additionally, numerical results demonstrate the capability of the a posteriori error models developed in this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1987

Numerical tests of a modified full implicit continuous Eulerian (FICE) scheme with projected normal characteristic boundary conditions for MHD flows

A numerical method has been developed based on a modified full implicit continuous Eulerian (FICE) scheme and projected normal characteristic boundary conditions for simulating MHD flows which undergo a long process of evolution. An astrophysical flow is chosen for illustration of this procedure, and numerical tests are made to verify the computational stability and physically realistic solution. Three computational tests have been accomplished; they are tests of solving methods, characteristic boundary condition, and time steps. The tests show that the program from the modified FICE scheme with proper boundary conditions and time steps can be made numerically stable for a time long enough to obtain physically plausible solutions.

Wu, S. T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

High Order Discontinuous Gelerkin Methods for Convection Dominated Problems with Application to Aeroacoustics

This project is about the investigation of the development of the discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods, for general geometry and triangulations, for solving convection dominated problems, with applications to aeroacoustics. On the analysis side, we have studied the efficient and stable discontinuous Galerkin framework for small second derivative terms, for example in Navier-Stokes equations, and also for related equations such as the Hamilton-Jacobi equations. This is a truly local discontinuous formulation where derivatives are considered as new variables. On the applied side, we have implemented and tested the efficiency of different approaches numerically. Related issues in high order ENO and WENO finite difference methods and spectral methods have also been investigated. Jointly with Hu, we have presented a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for solving the nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi equations. This method is based on the RungeKutta discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for solving conservation laws. The method has the flexibility of treating complicated geometry by using arbitrary triangulation, can achieve high order accuracy with a local, compact stencil, and are suited for efficient parallel implementation. One and two dimensional numerical examples are given to illustrate the capability of the method. Jointly with Hu, we have constructed third and fourth order WENO schemes on two dimensional unstructured meshes (triangles) in the finite volume formulation. The third order schemes are based on a combination of linear polynomials with nonlinear weights, and the fourth order schemes are based on combination of quadratic polynomials with nonlinear weights. We have addressed several difficult issues associated with high order WENO schemes on unstructured mesh, including the choice of linear and nonlinear weights, what to do with negative weights, etc. Numerical examples are shown to demonstrate the accuracies and robustness of the methods for shock calculations. Jointly with P. Montarnal, we have used a recently developed energy relaxation theory by Coquel and Perthame and high order weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) schemes to simulate the Euler equations of real gas. The main idea is an energy decomposition under the form epsilon = epsilon(sub 1) + epsilon(sub 2), where epsilon(sub 1) is associated with a simpler pressure law (gamma)-law in this paper) and the nonlinear deviation epsilon(sub 2) is convected with the flow. A relaxation process is performed for each time step to ensure that the original pressure law is satisfied. The necessary characteristic decomposition for the high order WENO schemes is performed on the characteristic fields based on the epsilon(sub l) gamma-law. The algorithm only calls for the original pressure law once per grid point per time step, without the need to compute its derivatives or any Riemann solvers. Both one and two dimensional numerical examples are shown to illustrate the effectiveness of this approach.

Shu, Chi-Wang↗

NASA NTRS2004

Relaxation and Preconditioning for High Order Discontinuous Galerkin Methods with Applications to Aeroacoustics and High Speed Flows

This project is about the investigation of the development of the discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods, for general geometry and triangulations, for solving convection dominated problems, with applications to aeroacoustics. Other related issues in high order WENO finite difference and finite volume methods have also been investigated. methods are two classes of high order, high resolution methods suitable for convection dominated simulations with possible discontinuous or sharp gradient solutions. In [18], we first review these two classes of methods, pointing out their similarities and differences in algorithm formulation, theoretical properties, implementation issues, applicability, and relative advantages. We then present some quantitative comparisons of the third order finite volume WENO methods and discontinuous Galerkin methods for a series of test problems to assess their relative merits in accuracy and CPU timing. In [3], we review the development of the Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) methods for non-linear convection-dominated problems. These robust and accurate methods have made their way into the main stream of computational fluid dynamics and are quickly finding use in a wide variety of applications. They combine a special class of Runge-Kutta time discretizations, that allows the method to be non-linearly stable regardless of its accuracy, with a finite element space discretization by discontinuous approximations, that incorporates the ideas of numerical fluxes and slope limiters coined during the remarkable development of the high-resolution finite difference and finite volume schemes. The resulting RKDG methods are stable, high-order accurate, and highly parallelizable schemes that can easily handle complicated geometries and boundary conditions. We review the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of these methods and show several applications including nonlinear conservation laws, the compressible and incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and Hamilton-Jacobi-like equations.

Shu, Chi-Wang↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

NASA NTRS2018

Is MBSE Helping? Measuring Value on Europa Clipper

JPL’s Integrated Model Centric Engineering Initiative (IMCE) has led the infusion of MBSE at JPL. In 2009 I authored for IMCE a set of challenges that confronted systems engineering at JPL, based on examination of issues and lessons from several recent projects (the “Five System Engineering Challenges”). In 2012 I augmented this work to describe specific areas where it appeared MBSE could help address these challenges. Around the same time, the Europa Clipper Mission became the first project at JPL to attempt, in close collaboration with IMCE, a widespread adoption of MBSE. This adoption has been highly successful so far. Europa Clipper completed Phase A (Formulation) with a successful System Requirements Review / Mission Definition Review, and is nearing the end of Phase B, with a successful Flight System Preliminary Design Review in October 2017. This is an opportune time to take stock of the progress and the work yet to go. This paper proposes a practical method for measuring value added through use of MBSE, applies this method to the Europa Clipper Project, and suggests how it might be applied to other projects and organizations.

Bayer, Todd↗

DOE OSTI2022

Customer outcomes in Pay-As-You-Save programs

We review the energy and financial outcomes of households participating in several programs based on successive versions of the Pay As You Save¯ (PAYS¯) system. PAYS¯ programs offer non-debt financing for energy efficiency (and sometimes other technologies) in residential buildings through a tariff attached to the home’s utility meter, designed to be offset by project savings. We find that the five programs we study generally serve customers living in zip codes with levels of income and education below the national average and unemployment rates above the national average, demonstrating their potential to improve equity in energy efficiency adoption. Using weather-normalized analysis of energy consumption data, we show that most customers of Midwest Energy’s program reduce annual electricity and gas consumption, averaging 15% and 26% reductions respectively. Changes in energy consumption calculated using this method represent a combination of project effects and changes in occupant behavior. These results are similar to existing analyses of PAYS¯ programs in North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee. About half of participating Midwest households generate sufficient energy cost savings to cover their monthly tariff. Various factors, including changes in occupant behavior, program error, causes independent of the customer or program, or some combination thereof may explain lower-than-expected cost reductions in some projects. Given the inherent variability in annual household electricity consumption, we feel these programs are enabling energy efficiency improvements and their attendant co-benefits, including occupant health and comfort and reduced carbon emissions, while reasonably balancing energy savings and tariff costs. Pairing PAYS¯ with additional financial assistance, as well as promoting cost-effective measures such as air and duct sealing, could further broaden program participation by enabling additional projects to meet PAYS¯ program eligibility rules.

Deason, Jeff↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Dry Storage Canister Cutting Operations - 20534

A recent project investigated the optimal cutting method for the opening of a welded dry storage/shielded canister (DSC) or dual purpose canister (DPC) containing Used Nuclear Fuel (UNF). Due to the lack of a disposal path for UNF in the U.S., the majority of UNF is currently moved into welded DSCs and DPCs designed by Orano TN, NAC, and Holtec. As the DSCs/DPCs were neither designed nor licensed for disposal and may not be able to be emplaced in a geologic repository due to physical emplacement constraints, near-term thermal limitations, or long-term criticality issues, the UNF in these existing DSCs/DPCs may need to be repackaged into transportation, aging, and disposal canisters (TADs), generic standard TADs (STADs), transportation casks, new cask/canister systems, and/or cask/canister/package systems suitable for disposal. These DSCs/DPCs may also be opened to simply remove the UNF in preparation for recycling, re-storage, or placement into a waste package suitable for disposal. Regardless of need, the DSCs/DPCs would require to be cut open by a potentially large scale operation. This project examined the multiple means for cutting welded metal systems and considered several factors to determine an optimal approach. Issues arose around some of the cutting approaches when applied to systems with 2 or 3 lids and with pre-cutting gas testing required. The resulting preferences in cutting methods with an optimized application for the opening of DSCs/DPCs are presented. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Investigation of Techniques for Simulating Communications and Tracking Subsystems on Space Station Freedom

The need to reduce the costs of Space Station Freedom has resulted in a major redesign and downsizing of the Station in general, and its Communications and Tracking (C&T) components in particular. Earlier models and simulations of the C&T Space-to-Ground Subsystem (SGS) in particular are no longer valid. There thus exists a general need for updated, high fidelity simulations of C&T subsystems. This project explored simulation techniques and methods that might be used in developing new simulations of C&T subsystems, including the SGS. Three requirements were placed on the simulations to be developed: (1) they run on IBM PC/XT/AT compatible computers; (2) they be written in Ada as much as possible; and (3) since control and monitoring of the C&T subsystems will involve communication via a MIL-STD-1553B serial bus, that the possibility of commanding the simulator and monitoring its sensors via that bus be included in the design of the simulator. The result of the project is a prototype of a simulation of the Assembly/Contingency Transponder of the SGS, written in Ada, which can be controlled from another PC via a MIL-STD-1553B bus.

Deacetis, Louis A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Innovating Training through Immersive Environments: Generation Y, Exploratory Learning, and Serious Games

Over the next decade, those entering Service and Joint Staff positions within the military will come from a different generation than the current leadership. They will come from Generation Y and have differing preferences for learning. Immersive learning environments like serious games and virtual world initiatives can complement traditional training methods to provide a better overall training program for staffs. Generation Y members desire learning methods which are relevant and interactive, regardless of whether they are delivered over the internet or in person. This paper focuses on a project undertaken to assess alternative training methods to teach special operations staffs. It provides a summary of the needs analysis used to consider alternatives and to better posture the Department of Defense for future training development.

Gendron, Gerald↗

NASA NTRS2017

Ames Engineering Directorate

The Ames Engineering Directorate is the principal engineering organization supporting aerospace systems and spaceflight projects at NASA's Ames Research Center in California's Silicon Valley. The Directorate supports all phases of engineering and project management for flight and mission projects-from R&D to Close-out-by leveraging the capabilities of multiple divisions and facilities.The Mission Design Center (MDC) has full end-to-end mission design capability with sophisticated analysis and simulation tools in a collaborative concurrent design environment. Services include concept maturity level (CML) maturation, spacecraft design and trades, scientific instruments selection, feasibility assessments, and proposal support and partnerships. The Engineering Systems Division provides robust project management support as well as systems engineering, mechanical and electrical analysis and design, technical authority and project integration support to a variety of programs and projects across NASA centers. The Applied Manufacturing Division turns abstract ideas into tangible hardware for aeronautics, spaceflight and science applications, specializing in fabrication methods and management of complex fabrication projects. The Engineering Evaluation Lab (EEL) provides full satellite or payload environmental testing services including vibration, temperature, humidity, immersion, pressure/altitude, vacuum, high G centrifuge, shock impact testing and the Flight Processing Center (FPC), which includes cleanrooms, bonded stores and flight preparation resources. The Multi-Mission Operations Center (MMOC) is composed of the facilities, networks, IT equipment, software and support services needed by flight projects to effectively and efficiently perform all mission functions, including planning, scheduling, command, telemetry processing and science analysis.

Small Satellites↗

DOE OSTI2021

FCET Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Testing and Development: CRADA 526 [Abstract only]

The purpose of the proposed project is for PNNL to test the performance of prototype solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) created by FCET. Such testing will provide FCET with independent performance data that can be communicated to potential clients and/or investors. Additionally, PNNL will collaborate with FCET on design changes to improve fuel cell performance. Intellectual property developed in this way will benefit FCET with improved products to market, and PNNL through royalty revenue. The key technology held by FCET is a process to deposit extremely thin layers of oxide materials, from 10-50 nm in thickness. The range of possible materials that can be deposited with their method is broad, but this project will focus on the yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electrolytes for SOFCs. Thin, gas tight YSZ membranes have been a long-sought target in SOFC research. The thinner the YSZ, the lower the cell resistance, and the higher performance of the cell (or the lower the operating temperature). 10-50 nm would be a major step change in YSZ thickness from the state of the art. PNNL can team with FCET on future R&D projects and push this technology forward to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS2021

Gaps List KSC Space Crop Production Project Scientist: Interview Evaluation

The Space Crop Production (SCP) Program at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is aimed at achieving nutrient supplementation and moving towards caloric independence from Earth by growing crops for astronauts. However, growing crops outside of Earth’s orbit creates many new challenges. The KCS SCP Project Scientists have developed a method of organizing these challenges, called the Gaps List. This Gaps List is a dynamic, taxonomically arranged list of missing knowledge and technologies needed to reach production goals. The purpose of this evaluation was to assess the effectiveness and current research coverage of the Gaps List by using it to document KSC SCP Program research. It was determined that there are several needs within the SCP Program that are not being met, as well as, many deficiencies within the Gaps List. Gaps involving hardware were largely unrecognized by both the KSC researchers and the funding sources that would typically support them. The KSC SCP Project will require more engineering and physical sciences support to fill those gaps. The Gaps List was found to be out of date and in need of rearrangement. A recommendation from this review was that the Gaps List be reassessed at regular intervals to ensure all gaps, and relevant research topics are included. To better understand the gaps within the list, any assessment needs to include a measure of priority, dependency, and breadth. These measures may be included within or alongside the current taxonomical arrangement of the Gaps List.

Chloe Sophia Alexander↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gaps List KSC Space Crop Production Project Scientist: Interview Evaluation

Chloe S. Alexander↗