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NASA NTRS2018

Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission POS

In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. To accommodate this with regards to Navigation, the SLS utilizes an internally redundant Inertial Navigation System (INS) with built-in capability to detect, isolate, and recover from first failure conditions and still maintain adherence to performance requirements. The unit utilizes multiple hardware- and software-level techniques to enable detection, isolation, and recovery from these events in terms of its built-in Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) algorithms. Successful operation is defined in terms of sufficient navigation accuracy at insertion while operating under worst case single sensor outages (gyroscope and accelerometer faults at launch). In addition to first fault detection and recovery, the SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the INS to detect a second fault, tracking any unacceptable uncertainty in knowledge of the vehicle's state. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error and sensor faults can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environments and outside of its performance envelope causing loss of mission, or worse, loss of crew. The criteria for operation under second faults allows for a larger set of achievable missions in terms of potential fault conditions, due to the INS operating at the edge of its capability. As this performance is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design space. Due to the implications of the vehicle response to abort conditions (such as a potentially failed INS), it is important to consider a wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both magnitude and time. As such, the Navigation team is taking advantage of the INS's capability to schedule and change fault detection thresholds in flight. These values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success, and reducing the probability of false positives (defined as when the INS would report a second fault condition resulting in loss of mission, but the vehicle would still meet insertion requirements within system-level margins). This paper will describe an optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events as a function of potential fault magnitude and time of fault over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach, and performance assessment of the results will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this process to second fault detection to maximize mission probability of success.

Anzalone, Evan↗

NASA NTRS1986

A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

Abernethy, K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cell-level reliability testing procedures for CIGS photovoltaics

The reliability of photovoltaics is commonly studied at the module level. Many reliability problems originate from module attributes, such as metal interconnections to cells, junction boxes. However, significant work in reliability can also be done prior to module design. Testing for reliability earlier in the research cycle increases the probability of avoiding common module reliability problems before cell changes are implemented on a large scale. Cell-level reliability studies can thus lower the rates of module failures in the field and provide confidence to investors that new technologies will perform as advertised. This report summarizes how we investigated three reliability concerns in Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) photovoltaics at the cell level: metastability, shading-induced damage, and potential-induced degradation (PID). We find that examining these concerns required developing robust measurement protocols including the fabrication of novel testing structures. This information will allow readers to incorporate sound metrics for investigating reliability phenomena and aid their studies of cell and module reliability improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stress-Controlled Creep–Fatigue of an Advanced Austenitic Stainless Steel at Elevated Temperatures

Creep–fatigue interaction occurs in many structural components of high-temperature systems operating under cyclic and steady-state service conditions, such as in nuclear power plants, aerospace, naval, and other industrial applications. Thus, understanding micromechanisms governing high-temperature creep–fatigue behavior is essential for safety and design considerations. In this work, stress-controlled creep–fatigue tests of advanced austenitic stainless steel (Alloy 709) were performed at a 400 MPa stress range and 750 °C with tensile hold times of 0, 60, 600, 1800, and 3600 s, followed by microstructural examinations. The creep–fatigue lifetime of the Alloy 709 was found to decrease with increasing hold time until reaching a saturation level where the number of cycles to failure did not exhibit a significant decrease. Softening behavior was observed at the beginning of the test, possibly due to the recovery of entangled dislocations and de-twining. In addition, hysteresis loops showed ratcheting behavior, although the mean stress was zero during creep–fatigue cycling, which was attributed to activity of partial dislocations. Microstructural examination of the fracture surfaces showed that fatigue failure dominated at small hold times where the cracks initiated at the surface of the sample. Larger creep cracks were found for longer hold times with a lower probability of dimpled cavities, indicating the dominance of creep deformation. The results were compared with other commonly used stainless steels, and plausible reasons for the observed responses were described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Risk analysis of earth return options for the Mars rover/sample return mission

Four options for return of a Mars surface sample to Earth were studied to estimate the risk of mission failure and the risk of a sample container breach that might result in the release of Martian life forms, should such exist, in the Earth's biosphere. The probabilities calculated refer only to the time period from the last midcourse correction burn to possession of the sample on Earth. Two extreme views characterize this subject. In one view, there is no life on Mars, therefore there is no significant risk and no serious effort is required to deal with back contamination. In the other view, public safety overrides any desire to return Martian samples, and any risk of damaging contamination greater than zero is unacceptable. Zero risk requires great expense to achieve and may prevent the mission as currently envisioned from taking place. The major conclusion is that risk of sample container breach can be reduced to a very low number within the framework of the mission as now envisioned, but significant expense and effort, above that currently planned is needed. There are benefits to the public that warrant some risk. Martian life, if it exists, will be a major discovery. If it does not, there is no risk.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

Brain wave correlates of attentional states: Event related potentials and quantitative EEG analysis during performance of cognitive and perceptual tasks

The increased use of automation in the cockpits of commercial planes has dramatically decreased the workload requirements of pilots, enabling them to function more efficiently and with a higher degree of safety. Unfortunately, advances in technology have led to an unexpected problem: the decreased demands on pilots have increased the probability of inducing 'hazardous states of awareness.' A hazardous state of awareness is defined as a decreased level of alertness or arousal which makes an individual less capable of reacting to unique or emergency types of situations. These states tend to be induced when an individual is not actively processing information. Under such conditions a person is likely to let his/her mind wander, either to internal states or to irrelevant external conditions. As a result, they are less capable of reacting quickly to emergency situations. Since emergencies are relatively rare, and since the high automated cockpit requires progressively decreasing levels of engagement, the probability of being seduced into a lowered state of awareness is increasing. This further decreases the readiness of the pilot to react to unique circumstances such as system failures. The HEM Lab at NASA-Langley Research Center has been studying how these states of awareness are induced and what the physiological correlates of these different states are. Specifically, they have been interested in studying electroencephalographic (EEG) measures of different states of alertness to determine if such states can be identified and, hopefully, avoided. The project worked on this summer involved analyzing the EEG and the event related potentials (ERP) data collected while subjects performed under two conditions. Each condition required subjects to perform a relatively boring vigilance task. The purpose of using these tasks was to induce a decreased state of awareness while still requiring the subject to process information. Each task involved identifying an infrequently presented target stimulus. In addition to the task requirements, irrelevant tones were presented in the background. Research has shown that even though these stimuli are not attended, ERP's to them can still be elicited. The amplitude of the ERP waves has been shown to change as a function of a person's level of alertness. ERP's were also collected and analyzed for the target stimuli for each task. Brain maps were produced based on the ERP voltages for the different stimuli. In addition to the ERP's, a quantitative EEG (QEEG) was performed on the data using a fast Fourier technique to produce a power spectral analysis of the EEG. This analysis was conducted on the continuous EEG while the subjects were performing the tasks. Finally, a QEEG was performed on periods during the task when subjects indicated that they were in an altered state of awareness. During the tasks, subjects were asked to indicate by pressing a button when they realized their level of task awareness had changed. EEG epochs were collected for times just before and just after subjects made this reponse. The purpose of this final analysis was to determine whether or not subjective indices of level of awareness could be correlated with different patterns of EEG.

Freeman, Frederick G.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1948

Ditching Tests of Two Models of the Army B-36 Airplane

The ditching characteristics of the Army B-36 airplane were determined by testing 1/20- and 1/30-scale dynamic models in calm water in Langley tank no. 2 and at the outdoor catapult. The scope of the tests consisted of ditching the models at various conditions of simulated damage, landing attitudes, and speeds, with various flap settings using several degrees of restraint of the flap hinges. The ditching behavior was evaluated from recordings of deceleration, length of run, and motions of the models. The results showed that the airplane should be ditched at an attitude of about 9 deg with flaps full down. The probable ditching behavior will be a smooth run with a maximum longitudinal deceleration of 3g to 4g and a landing run of 4 to 5 fuselage lengths. Structural failure of the underside of the fuselage will not seriously affect the behavior of the airplane.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

Ono, Masahiro↗

NASA NTRS1959

Experimental Evaluation of Cermet Turbine Stator Blades for Use at Elevated Gas Temperatures

The suitability of cermets for turbine stator blades of a modified turbojet engine was determined at an average turbine-inlet-gas temperature of 2000 F. Such an increase in temperature would yield a premium in thrust from a service engine. Because the cermet blades require no cooling, all the available compressor bleed air could be used to cool a turbine made from conventional ductile alloys. Cermet blades were first run in 100-hour endurance tests at normal gas temperatures in order to evaluate two methods for mounting them. The elevated gas-temperature test was then run using the method of support considered best for high-temperature operation. After 52 hours at 2000 F, one of the group of four cermet blades fractured probably because of end loads resulting from thermal distortion of the spacer band of the nozzle diaphragm. Improved design of a service engine would preclude this cause of premature failure.

Chiarito, Patrick T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Tensile Creep and Fatigue of Sylramic-iBN Melt-Infiltrated SiC Matrix Composites: Retained Properties, Damage Development, and Failure Mechanisms

An understanding of the elevated temperature tensile creep, fatigue, rupture, and retained properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) envisioned for use in gas turbine engine applications are essential for component design and life-prediction. In order to quantify the effect of stress, time, temperature, and oxidation for a state-of-the-art composite system, a wide variety of tensile creep, dwell fatigue, and cyclic fatigue experiments were performed in air at 1204 C for the SiC/SiC CMC system consisting of Sylramic-iBN SiC fibers, BN fiber interphase coating, and slurry-cast melt-infiltrated (MI) SiC-based matrix. Tests were either taken to failure or interrupted. Interrupted tests were then mechanically tested at room temperature to determine the residual properties. The retained properties of most of the composites subjected to tensile creep or fatigue were usually within 20% of the as-produced strength and 10% of the as-produced elastic modulus. It was observed that during creep, residual stresses in the composite are altered to some extent which results in an increased compressive stress in the matrix upon cooling and a subsequent increased stress required to form matrix cracks. Microscopy of polished sections and the fracture surfaces of specimens which failed during stressed-oxidation or after the room-temperature retained property test was performed on some of the specimens in order to quantify the nature and extent of damage accumulation that occurred during the test. It was discovered that the distribution of stress-dependent matrix cracking at 1204 C was similar to the as-produced composites at room temperature; however, matrix crack growth occurred over time and typically did not appear to propagate through thickness except at final failure crack. Failure of the composites was due to either oxidation-induced unbridged crack growth, which dominated the higher stress regime (> 179 MPa) or controlled by degradation of the fibers, probably caused by intrinsic creep-induced flaw growth of the fibers or internal attack of the fibers via Si diffusion through the CVI SiC and/or microcracks at the lower stress regime (< 165 MPa).

Morscher, Greg↗

NASA NTRS1992

Derivation and application of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. If this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline, either the necessary conditions for system stability are violated or the system leaves the allowed state-space. In such a case a dynamic failure is said to occur to the system. A method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems by considering system stability and the allowed state-space is presented. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space - which is derived from given input and state constraints - is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. A one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure is also considered. The knowledge of hard deadline is then applied to the design of error recovery in a triple modular redundant (TMR) controller computer.

Shin, Kang G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Derivation of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. A dynamic failure is said to occur if this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline. The authors present a method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space-which is derived from given input and state constraints-is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. The authors consider a one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure.

Shin, Kang G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Discrete Measurements of the Least Horizontal Principal Stress from Core Data: An Application of Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation

Summary The emerging Paradox Oil Play in southeastern Utah is among the most significant unconventional plays in the western USA. The mean total undiscovered oil resources within just the Pennsylvanian Cane Creek interval of the Paradox Basin are believed to exceed 215 million barrels. However, to date, less than 5% (~9 million barrels) of the total Cane Creek resource has been produced from fewer than 40 wells, and only approximately one-half of those are horizontal wells. More than 95% of production is from the central Cane Creek Unit (CCU). Natural fractures are a key feature of many production wells, but stimulation by induced hydraulic fractures is not consistently successful. We hypothesize that more effective production in this play will rely on better fundamental characterization, especially on better quantification of the state of stress. Approximately 110 ft of core, well logs, and a diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) were acquired from the State 16-2 well within the CCU. With these data, we applied two methods to constrain and clarify the state of stress. The first technique, the Simpson’s coefficient method, provides lower bounds on the two horizontal principal stresses and relies on only limited data. Alternatively, the viscoelastic stress relaxation (VSR) method is used to estimate the least horizontal principal stress, building on observations that principal stresses become more isotropic as the viscous behavior of a rock is more pronounced. Results of these two methods support the hypothesis that the state of stress in the CCU of the Paradox Basin is nearly lithostatic and isotropic. Other factors consistent with this hypothesis include high formation pore pressure, which tends to reduce the possible stress states by changing the frictional failure equilibrium; lack of induced fractures in the core, which should be present in the case of stress anisotropy; and interbedded halite layers, which given their high degree of ductility, probably lead to greater VSR for the entire sedimentary package.

Energy & Fuels↗

NASA NTRS1989

A combined Eulerian-Lagrangian two-phase flow analysis of SSME HPOTP nozzle plug trajectories. II - Results

An analysis of Space Shuttle Main Engine high-pressure oxygen turbopump nozzle plug trajectories has been performed, using a Lagrangian method to track nozzle plug particles expelled from a turbine through a high Reynolds number flow in a turnaround duct with turning vanes. Axisymmetric and parametric analyses reveal that if nozzle plugs exited the turbine they would probably impact the LOX heat exchanger with impact velocities which are significantly less than the penetration velocity. The finding that only slight to moderate damage will result from nozzle plug failure in flight is supported by the results of a hot-fire engine test with induced nozzle plug failures.

Mcconnaughey, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Atomic oxygen undercutting of defects on SiO2 protected polyimide solar array blankets

Low Earth Orbital (LEO) atomic oxygen can oxidize SiO2-protected polyimide kapton solar array blanket material which is not totally protected as a result of pinholes or scratches in the SiO2 coatings. The probability of atomic oxygen reaction upon initial impact is low, thus inviting oxidation by secondary impacts. The secondary impacts can produce atomic oxygen undercutting which may lead to coating mechanical failure and ever increasing mass loss rates of kapton. Comparison of undercutting effects in isotropic plasma asher and directed beam tests are reported. These experimental results are compared with computational undercutting profiles based on Monte Carlo methods and their implication on LEO performance of protected polymers.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A procedure for combining acoustically induced and mechanically induced loads (first passage failure design criterion)

The combined load statistics are developed by taking the acoustically induced load to be a random population, assumed to be stationary. Each element of this ensemble of acoustically induced loads is assumed to have the same power spectral density (PSD), obtained previously from a random response analysis employing the given acoustic field in the STS cargo bay as a stationary random excitation. The mechanically induced load is treated as either (1) a known deterministic transient, or (2) a nonstationary random variable of known first and second statistical moments which vary with time. A method is then shown for determining the probability that the combined load would, at any time, have a value equal to or less than a certain level. Having obtained a statistical representation of how the acoustic and mechanical loads are expected to combine, an analytical approximation for defining design levels for these loads is presented using the First Passage failure criterion.

Crowe, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Robotic and Human-Tended Collaborative Drilling Automation for Subsurface Exploration

Future in-situ lunar/martian resource utilization and characterization, as well as the scientific search for life on Mars, will require access to the subsurface and hence drilling. Drilling on Earth is hard - an art form more than an engineering discipline. Human operators listen and feel drill string vibrations coming from kilometers underground. Abundant mass and energy make it possible for terrestrial drilling to employ brute-force approaches to failure recovery and system performance issues. Space drilling will require intelligent and autonomous systems for robotic exploration and to support human exploration. Eventual in-situ resource utilization will require deep drilling with probable human-tended operation of large-bore drills, but initial lunar subsurface exploration and near-term ISRU will be accomplished with lightweight, rover-deployable or standalone drills capable of penetrating a few tens of meters in depth. These lightweight exploration drills have a direct counterpart in terrestrial prospecting and ore-body location, and will be designed to operate either human-tended or automated. NASA and industry now are acquiring experience in developing and building low-mass automated planetary prototype drills to design and build a pre-flight lunar prototype targeted for 2011-12 flight opportunities. A successful system will include development of drilling hardware, and automated control software to operate it safely and effectively. This includes control of the drilling hardware, state estimation of both the hardware and the lithography being drilled and state of the hole, and potentially planning and scheduling software suitable for uncertain situations such as drilling. Given that Humans on the Moon or Mars are unlikely to be able to spend protracted EVA periods at a drill site, both human-tended and robotic access to planetary subsurfaces will require some degree of standalone, autonomous drilling capability. Human-robotic coordination will be important, either between a robotic drill and humans on Earth, or a human-tended drill and its visiting crew. The Mars Analog Rio Tinto Experiment (MARTE) is a current project that studies and simulates the remote science operations between an automated drill in Spain and a distant, distributed human science team. The Drilling Automation for Mars Exploration (DAME) project, by contrast: is developing and testing standalone automation at a lunar/martian impact crater analog site in Arctic Canada. The drill hardware in both projects is a hardened, evolved version of the Advanced Deep Drill (ADD) developed by Honeybee Robotics for the Mars Subsurface Program. The current ADD is capable of 20m, and the DAME project is developing diagnostic and executive software for hands-off surface operations of the evolved version of this drill. The current drill automation architecture being developed by NASA and tested in 2004-06 at analog sites in the Arctic and Spain will add downhole diagnosis of different strata, bit wear detection, and dynamic replanning capabilities when unexpected failures or drilling conditions are discovered in conjunction with simulated mission operations and remote science planning. The most important determinant of future 1unar and martian drilling automation and staffing requirements will be the actual performance of automated prototype drilling hardware systems in field trials in simulated mission operations. It is difficult to accurately predict the level of automation and human interaction that will be needed for a lunar-deployed drill without first having extensive experience with the robotic control of prototype drill systems under realistic analog field conditions. Drill-specific failure modes and software design flaws will become most apparent at this stage. DAME will develop and test drill automation software and hardware under stressful operating conditions during several planned field campaigns. Initial results from summer 2004 tests show seven identifi distinct failure modes of the drill: cuttings-removal issues with low-power drilling into permafrost, and successful steps at executive control and initial automation.

Glass, Brian↗