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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Mesh-based multiphysics coupling acceleration for fusion neutronics through clustering for fusion blanket applications

Accurate modeling of particle transport within fusion blankets is essential for predicting performance metrics such as heat deposition and the tritium breeding ratio (TBR). However, high-fidelity coupling of thermal fluids from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to neutronics simulations often incurs significant computational costs due to the complexity of surface intersection calculations in Monte Carlo codes. This paper presents an accelerated multiphysics coupling method for neutronics that utilizes hierarchical agglomerative clustering to map complex material property distributions to a neutronics model. Implemented within the fusion reactor design and assessment (FREDA) framework, the method leverages existing Python packages to automate the creation of clustered geometries for OpenMC. The approach is demonstrated on a sector model of an ARC-class tokamak with an immersion molten salt blanket, and an simple geometry with varying isotopic concentrations. Results show that the clustering method significantly reduces computational burden without compromising fidelity, providing a foundation for agile iteration of neutronics simulations involving multiple coupled material properties.

Bae, Jin Whan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326548907)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transforming microseismic clouds into near real-time visualization of the growing hydraulic fracture

SUMMARY Microseismic observations during unconventional reservoir stimulation are typically seen as a proxy for clusters of hydraulic fractures and the extent of the stimulated reservoir. Such straightforward interpretation is often misleading and fails to provide a physically reasonable image of the fracturing process. This paper demonstrates the application of a physics-based machine learning algorithm which enables a rapid and accurate fracture mapping from the microseismic data. Our training and validation data set relies on a history-matched geomechanical modelling workflow implemented in GEOS software for the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 1 (HFTS-1) project. For this study we augmented the simulated fracture growth through geostatistical modelling of induced seismicity, so that the synthetic microseismic catalogue matches the main statistical properties of the field observations. We formulated the problem of mapping the actual fracture in the clutter of events to parallel common video segmentation workflows: several past video frames (microseismic density snapshots) are passed through a deep convolutional network to classify whether a given voxel is associated with a fracture or intact rock. We found that for accurate fracture mapping, the network’s input and architecture must be augmented to incorporate the fluid injection parameters (pressure, rate, concentration of proppant, and location of the perforation within the cluster). The error rate for the network reached as little as 10 per cent of the fracture area, while a conventional microseismic interpretation approach yielded ∼300 per cent. Our approach also yields must faster predictions than conventional methods (minutes instead of weeks), and could enable engineers to make rapid decisions regarding engineering parameters (pumping rate, viscosity) in real time during stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning nuclear cross sections across the chart of nuclides with graph neural networks

We explore the use of deep learning techniques to learn how nuclear cross sections change as we add or remove protons and neutrons. As a proof of principle, we focus on the neutron-induced reactions in the fast energy regime. Our approach follows a two-stage learning framework. First, we apply representation learning to encode cross section data into a latent space using either variational autoencoders (VAEs) or implicit neural representations (INRs). Then, we train graph neural networks (GNNs) on the resulting embeddings to predict missing values across the nuclear chart by leveraging the topological structure of neighboring isotopes. We demonstrate accurate cross section predictions within a 9 × 9 block of missing nuclei. We also find that the optimal GNN training strategy depends on the type of latent representation used, with VAE embeddings performing best under end-to-end optimization in the original space, while INR embeddings achieve better results when the GNN is trained only in the latent space. Furthermore, using clustering algorithms, we map groups of latent vectors into regions of the nuclear chart and show that VAEs and INRs can discover some of the neutron magic numbers. These findings suggest that deep-learning models based on the representation encoding of cross sections combined with graph neural networks hold significant potential in augmenting nuclear theory models, e.g., by providing reliable estimates of covariances of cross sections, including cross-material covariances.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Probing the baryon content of SDSS DR15 galaxies with the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effects

We present high signal-to-noise measurements (up to 12$\sigma$) of the average thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect from optically selected galaxy groups and clusters and estimate their baryon content within a 2.1$^\prime$ radius aperture. Sources from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) DR15 catalog overlap with 3,700 sq. deg. of sky observed by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 2008 to 2018 at 150 and 98 GHz (ACT DR5), and 2,089 sq. deg. of internal linear combination component-separated maps combining ACT and $\it{Planck}$ data (ACT DR4). The corresponding optical depths, $\bar{\tau}$, which depend on the baryon content of the halos, are estimated using results from cosmological hydrodynamic simulations assuming an AGN feedback radiative cooling model. We estimate the mean mass of the halos in multiple luminosity bins, and compare the tSZ-based $\bar{\tau}$ estimates to theoretical predictions of the baryon content for a Navarro-Frenk-White profile. We do the same for $\bar{\tau}$ estimates extracted from fits to pairwise baryon momentum measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (kSZ) for the same data set obtained in a companion paper. We find that the $\bar{\tau}$ estimates from the tSZ measurements in this work and the kSZ measurements in the companion paper agree within $1\sigma$ for two out of the three disjoint luminosity bins studied, while they differ by 2-3$\sigma$ in the highest luminosity bin. The optical depth estimates account for one third to all of the theoretically predicted baryon content in the halos across luminosity bins. Potential systematic uncertainties are discussed. The tSZ and kSZ measurements provide a step towards empirical Compton-$\bar{y}$-$\bar{\tau}$ relationships to provide new tests of cluster formation and evolution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite-Time Teleportation Phase Transition in Random Quantum Circuits

How long does it take to entangle two distant qubits in a quantum circuit evolved by generic unitary dynamics? Here, we show that if the time evolution is followed by measurements of all but two infinitely separated test qubits, then the entanglement between them can undergo a phase transition and become nonzero at a finite critical time t c . The fidelity of teleporting a quantum state from an input qubit to an infinitely distant output qubit shows the same critical onset. Specifically, these finite-time transitions occur in short-range interacting two-dimensional random unitary circuits and in sufficiently long-range interacting one-dimensional circuits. The phase transition is understood by mapping the random continuous-time evolution to a finite-temperature thermal state of an effective spin Hamiltonian, where the inverse temperature equals the evolution time in the circuit. In this framework, the entanglement between two distant qubits at times t > t c corresponds to the emergence of long-range ferromagnetic spin correlations below the critical temperature. We verify these predictions using numerical simulation of Clifford circuits and propose potential realizations in existing platforms for quantum simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Picasso: Memory-Efficient Graph Coloring Using Palettes With Applications in Quantum Computing

A coloring of a graph is an assignment of colors to vertices such that no two neighboring vertices have the same color. The need for memory-efficient coloring algorithms is motivated by their application in computing clique partitions of graphs arising in quantum computations where the objective is to map a large set of Pauli strings into a compact set of unitaries. We present Picasso, a randomized memory-efficient iterative parallel graph coloring algorithm with theoretical sublinear space guarantees under practical assumptions. The parameters of our algorithm provide a trade-off between coloring quality and resource consumption. To assist the user, we also propose a machine learning model to predict the coloring algorithm’s parameters considering these trade-offs. We provide a sequential and a parallel implementation of the proposed algorithm. We perform an experimental evaluation on a 64-core AMD CPU equipped with 512 GB of memory and an Nvidia A100 GPU with 40GB of memory. For a small dataset where existing coloring algorithms can be executed within the 512 GB memory budget, we show up to 68× memory savings. On massive datasets we demonstrate that GPU-accelerated Picasso can process inputs with 49.5× more Pauli strings (vertex set in our graph) and 2,478× more edges than state-of-the-art parallel approaches.

artificial intelligence, quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Role of Hydrodynamics in Enhancing Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage Derived Synthetic Rating Curves: A Comparative Study in the Wu River Basin, Taiwan

The conventional approach to generating synthetic rating curves (SRC) using the Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage (HAND) method typically relies on the assumption of uniform flow, such as Manning's equation, to establish stage-discharge ratings. The zero-physics application of the uniform flow equation is insufficient for capturing detailed hydraulic features (e.g., backwater effect) and neglects the hydraulic effects from adjacent channels. This lack of hydrodynamic computation can impact the accuracy and effectiveness of riverine flood risk estimation and management. To reduce this foreseeable error, we introduce the HAND-hd workflow, which integrates sophisticated hydrodynamic computations in the production of HAND-based SRC with hydrodynamic features (SRC hd ). The results indicate that SRC hd demonstrates consistent agreement with both gauge observations and benchmark solutions. Additionally, the comparative analysis suggests that SRC hd provides notable improvements in stage-discharge ratings over conventional HAND-based SRCs, particularly in channels with mild bed gradients, where it reduces water stage prediction errors and percent biases. In steeper channel segments, SRC hd maintains comparable accuracy to conventional methods. The comprehensive evaluation in this study emphasizes the potential discrepancies and inaccuracies associated with the adoption of the uniform flow assumption in the conventional HAND-SRCs and addresses the necessity of including hydrodynamic physics in the application of HAND-based SRC (e.g., inundation map) in channels with mild gradients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical study of the CO 2 –O 2 van der Waals complex: potential energy surface and applications

A four-dimensional-potential energy surface (4D-PES) of the atmospherically relevant carbon dioxide–oxygen molecule (CO 2 –O 2 ) van der Waals complex is mapped using the ab initio explicitly correlated coupled cluster method with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations (UCCSD(T)-F12b), and extrapolation to the complete basis set (CBS) limit using the cc-pVTZ-F12/cc-pVQZ-F12 bases and the l –3 formula. An analytic representation of the 4D-PES was fitted using the method of interpolating moving least squares (IMLS). These calculations predict that the most stable configuration of CO 2 –O 2 complex corresponds to a planar slipped-parallel structure with a binding energy of V ~ –243 cm –1 . Another isomer is found on the PES, corresponding to a non-planar cross-shaped structure, with V ~ –218 cm –1 . The transition structure connecting the two minima is found at V ~ –211 cm –1 . We also performed comparisons with some CO 2 –X van der Waals complexes. Moreover, we provide a SAPT analysis of this molecular system. Then, we discuss the complexation induced shifts of CO 2 and O 2 . Afterwards, this new 4D-PES is employed to compute the second virial coefficient including temperature dependence. A comparison between quantities obtained in our calculations and those from experiments found close agreement attesting to the high quality of the PES and to the importance of considering a full description of the anisotropic potential for the derivation of thermophysical properties of CO 2 –O 2 mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Machine Learning for Bragg Coherent Diffraction Imaging (BCDI) of 3D Electron Density Maps with Application to La 2-x Ba x CuO 4 (LBCO) High Temperature Superconductor Studies [PowerPoint]

Understanding mesoscale heterogeneity is important for evaluating fatigue and failure of structural materials and for manufacturing processes. Data-driven tools can facilitate in guiding effort investment (measurements and computations) at various stages of the materials development. Our 3D reconstruction approach is to find a set of coefficients which define a bounding surface of the electron density. Data for training the 3D CNN was generated by sampling coefficients from uniform distributions. Test vs. prediction values are shown for the 28 even-valued coefficients for 1000 test structures, with the best and worst performers highlighted. The adaptive part of this work utilized a model independent extremum seeking (ES). The predictions of the CNN were used as the starting point for the ES algorithm. The convergence of the ES algorithm for 3 different structures is illustrated, and the robustness of the adaptive ML approach was demonstrated on experimentally measured 3D crystal from high energy diffraction microscopy. Reconstruction of a non-uniform density volume with different levels of Poisson noise is also shown. Preliminary attempts at reconstructing measured La 2-x Ba x CuO 4 diffraction patterns have so far failed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

HFIR SiC Bowing Test Ready to Insert

This report describes the successful assembly of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment designed to assess radiation-induced lateral bowing of silicon carbide fiber–reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (SiC/SiC) components under a radial fast neutron flux gradient. Excessive bowing of a SiC/SiC channel box in a boiling water reactor could potentially interfere with control blade movements. Similar concerns exist for SiC/SiC fuel cladding in light water reactors. The experiment described herein will provide experimental validation of the structural response of a miniature SiC/SiC channel box and tube specimens with pressurized water reactor diameters during irradiation. The significant radial fast neutron flux gradients that exist in the permanent reflector of HFIR were characterized using detailed three-dimensional neutronic calculations. The three-dimensional displacement damage dose rate profile and the resulting volumetric swelling in SiC were used as inputs to structural analyses that predicted the deformation and stresses in the channel box specimen. The specimens were thoroughly characterized prior to irradiation using traditional dimensional inspection and surface profilometry so that these measurements can later be compared with similar measurements that will be made post-irradiation to determine radiation-induced deformations. Furthermore, fine engraving markers were inscribed along all outer surfaces of the specimen and mapped using a digital microscope and a three-dimensional stage. This technique allowed for accurate measurements of the marker spacings, which can be compared with similar measurements that will be made post-irradiation to provide local radiation-induced strain mapping. The experiment was successfully assembled and is scheduled for insertion during HFIR cycle 492, which is currently scheduled to run from May 25, 2021 to June 18, 2021.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genome-scale model development and genomic sequencing of the oleaginous clade Lipomyces

The Lipomyces clade contains oleaginous yeast species with advantageous metabolic features for biochemical and biofuel production. Limited knowledge about the metabolic networks of the species and limited tools for genetic engineering have led to a relatively small amount of research on the microbes. Here, a genome-scale metabolic model (GSM) of Lipomyces starkeyi NRRL Y-11557 was built using orthologous protein mappings to model yeast species. Phenotypic growth assays were used to validate the GSM (66% accuracy) and indicated that NRRL Y-11557 utilized diverse carbohydrates but had more limited catabolism of organic acids. The final GSM contained 2,193 reactions, 1,909 metabolites, and 996 genes and was thus named iLst996. The model contained 96 of the annotated carbohydrate-active enzymes. iLst996 predicted a flux distribution in line with oleaginous yeast measurements and was utilized to predict theoretical lipid yields. Twenty-five other yeasts in the Lipomyces clade were then genome sequenced and annotated. Sixteen of the Lipomyces species had orthologs for more than 97% of the iLst996 genes, demonstrating the usefulness of iLst996 as a broad GSM for Lipomyces metabolism. Pathways that diverged from iLst996 mainly revolved around alternate carbon metabolism, with ortholog groups excluding NRRL Y-11557 annotated to be involved in transport, glycerolipid, and starch metabolism, among others. Overall, this study provides a useful modeling tool and data for analyzing and understanding Lipomyces species metabolism and will assist further engineering efforts in Lipomyces .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Tool Size Study for Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing

Over the past few decades, computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS) systems have become more deterministic. A target surface profile can be predictably achieved with a combination of tools of different sizes. However, deciding the optimal set of tool sizes that will achieve the target residual error in the shortest run time is difficult, and no general guidance has been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a computer-assisted study on choosing the proper tool size for a given surface error map. First, we propose that the characteristic frequency ratio (CFR) can be used as a general measure of the correction capability of a tool over a surface map. Second, the performance of different CFRs is quantitatively studied with a computer simulation by applying them to guide the tool size selection for polishing a large number of randomly generated surface maps with similar initial spatial frequencies and root mean square errors. Finally, we find that CFR = 0.75 achieves the most stable trade-off between the total run time and the number of iterations and thus can be used as a general criterion in tool size selection for CCOS processes. To the best of our knowledge, the CFR is the first criterion that ties tool size selection to overall efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-located temperature and electrical resistivity measurements for permafrost mapping, Teller 27, Teller 47 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, late summers of 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022

This data set contains co-located shallow soil (0.8m below ground level) and electrical resistivity at various depth extracted from Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) measurements. Data were acquired at three watersheds on the southern Seward Peninsula during the late summers of 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022. The three watersheds are located along the Nome-Teller Highway at mile markers 27 and 47, and along Kougarok Road mile marker 64. The co-located temperature and electrical resistivity data were used to (1) map the spatial extend of near surface permafrost, and (2) for supervised classification of permafrost bodies. This dataset contains .csv, .txt, .srv files and flmd reporting format with data dictionary. Find information about the .srv files at "https://e4d-userguide.pnnl.gov/e4d_guide/elec/e4d_e4d-survey.html". The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Patterns and rates of soil movement and shallow failures across several small watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Abstract. Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr−1 for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr−1 in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition for convection-dominated flows

Autoencoder techniques find increasingly common use in reduced order modeling as a means to create a latent space. This reduced order representation offers a modular data-driven modeling approach for nonlinear dynamical systems when integrated with a time series predictive model. In this Letter, we put forth a nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) framework, which is an end-to-end Galerkin-free model combining autoencoders with long short-term memory networks for dynamics. By eliminating the projection error due to the truncation of Galerkin models, a key enabler of the proposed nonintrusive approach is the kinematic construction of a nonlinear mapping between the full-rank expansion of the POD coefficients and the latent space where the dynamics evolve. We test our framework for model reduction of a convection-dominated system, which is generally challenging for reduced order models. Our approach not only improves the accuracy, but also significantly reduces the computational cost of training and testing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗