Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

BISON Capability to Account for Dopant Sensitivity in Relevant UO 2 Material Models

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program aims to develop predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. Incorporation of more physics-based models in BISON for the accident tolerant fuel applications motivated this study. This document details integration of new modeling capabilities in BISON, including: a tensile strength model for uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel to incorporate the microstructural effects (e.g., grain size, fabrication pore size, and porosity), and atomistic-informed creep model for UO 2 fuel that is developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sensitivity analyses are conducted on these models separately as well as a two-dimensional full rod application under normal operating conditions. Lastly, these new modeling capabilities in BISON are exercised in Halden IFA-677.1 and IFA-716.1 assessment cases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compare Mechanistic Predictions for Doped UO 2 Mechanical Response and Other Properties with Empirical Models and Experimental Measurements

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program develops predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. As part of its development, additional modeling capabilities and improvements have been developed for relevant fuel forms. In this work, a fuel creep deformation model for Cr-doped fuel has been implemented into BISON, along with improvements to the empirical UO 2 fuel creep model based on experimental data and improvements to the radial power factor calculation for doped fuels. This work allows for more accurate simulation analyses for both UO 2 and doped-UO 2 fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2020

Control of Weld Residual Stress in a Thin Steel Plate through Low Transformation Temperature Welding Consumables

Low transformation temperature welding (LTTW) consumables are characterized by a low martensite start temperature and a large fraction of martensite forming in the weld. It can efficiently reduce the tensile residual stress because the volume expansion associated with the martensitic transformation compensates for the thermal contraction during cooling. In this work, a LTTW wire, designated as EH200B, was created for the arc welding of advanced high-strength steel thin plates. In comparison to conventional ER70S-3 wires, this LTTW wire generated an opposite distortion pattern. Neutron diffraction measurements along the center thickness of the welded plates showed the maximum residual stress along the longitudinal direction (LD) in the weld region, and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) immediately adjacent to the weld region was reduced from ~330 MPa to below 240 MPa by using the LTTW wire. A finite element (FE) model was developed to predict the residual stress distributions of the plates welded under these two wires. The simulation results showed reasonable agreement with the volume-average neutron diffraction data. Compressive residual stress in the weld region using the LTTW wire was predicted by the FE method. Electron backscattered diffraction and x-ray diffraction measurements confirmed ~90% martensite was present in the LTTW weld. The fatigue life of DP980 steel lap joint panels using EH200B wire nearly doubled that of ER70S-3 wire. This improvement was attributed to the high strength and low LD residual stress in the weld and HAZ immediately adjacent to the weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drought adaptation index (DAI) based on BLUP as a selection approach for drought-resilient switchgrass germplasm

This study introduces a Drought Adaptation Index (DAI), derived from Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), as a method to assess drought resilience in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). A panel of 404 genotypes was evaluated under drought-stressed (CV) and well-watered (UC) conditions over four consecutive years (2019–2022). BLUP-estimated biomass yields were used to calculate the DAI, which enabled classification of genotypes into four adaptation groups: very well-adapted, well-adapted, adapted, and unadapted. The DAI was compared with conventional drought tolerance indices, including the Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI), Stress Tolerance Index (STI), Geometric Mean Productivity (GMP), and Yield Stability Index (YSI). Correlation analyses demonstrated strong agreement between DAI and these indices, supporting its validity and consistency. Biplot analyses using the Genotype plus Genotype-by-Environment Interaction (GGE) and Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) models revealed significant genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI) and identified J222.A, J463.A, and J295.A. A as high-performing genotypes, with J222.A exhibiting greater yield stability across treatments and years. Additionally, DAI isoline curves provided a graphical representation of differential genotype performance under drought and control conditions. These visualizations aided in distinguishing genotypes with stable and superior biomass yield across contrasting environments. Overall, the BLUP-based DAI is a robust and practical selection tool that improves the accuracy of identifying drought-resilient, high-yielding switchgrass genotypes. Its integration into breeding programs offers a comprehensive framework for improving biomass productivity and stress adaptation under variable climatic conditions. The application of DAI supports the development of climate-resilient cultivars and contributes to sustainable bioenergy and forage production systems.

BLUP↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamics of Liquid Immiscibility in Iron-Silicate Melt Systems: A Study of Nuclear Fallout Glass

In a ground-interacting nuclear explosion, elements derived from environmental and anthropogenic material, such as iron, silicon, and aluminum, can be incorporated into the fireball. When significant amounts of metals are entrained, the resulting melt may display immiscible textures. The composition of these textures is a record of the temperature of formation and cooling rates (or thermodynamic stability) of the melts and can provide unique constraints on the early cooling conditions of these events. Here, a thermodynamic approach using calculated phase diagrams, the CALPHAD method, is used to predict temperature and composition ranges where stable liquid immiscibility might result in the textures observed in nuclear fallout glass. Sensitivity of the immiscibility to the presence of relative Al, Ca, and Mg content is also explored and compared to fallout samples, and partition coefficients are introduced to understand the preferred distribution of components into each liquid phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON High Burnup Structure Modeling Capabilities Validated with a Selection of the Halden IFA-650 Rods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS)program aims to develop predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. This document continues analysis and refinement of capabilities added to BISON early this calendar year in regards to the incorporation of capabilities applicable to extended burnups in response to industry interest. Details are provided on high burnup thermal conductivity models, a refitting of the high-burnup structure (HBS) porosity formation model to include additional data, the coupling of the HBS volume fraction model to thermal conductivity and fine fragmentation models, and validation activities. The IFA-650.4 and IFA-650.9 loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analyses are revisited with the latest developments in this report. A new validation case, IFA-650.14 has also been added to the BISON test suite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Visual Designer of Layer-wise Relevance Propagation Models

Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) is an emerging and widely-used method for interpreting the prediction results of convolutional neural networks (CNN). LRP developers often select and employ different relevance backpropagation rules and parameters, to compute relevance scores on input images. However, there exists no obvious solution to define a "best" LRP model. A satisfied model is highly reliant on pertinent images and designers' goals. We develop a visual model designer, named as VisLRPDesigner, to overcome the challenges in the design and use of LRP models. Various LRP rules are unified into an integrated framework with an intuitive workflow of parameter setup. VisLRPDesigner thus allows users to interactively configure and compare LRP models. It also facilitates relevance-based visual analysis with two important functions: relevance-based pixel flipping and neuron ablation. Several use cases illustrate the benefits of VisLRPDesigner. The usability and limitation of the visual designer is evaluated by LRP users.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar forecasting using machine learned cloudiness classification

Methods and systems for predicting irradiance include learning a classification model using unsupervised learning based on historical irradiance data. The classification model is updated using supervised learning based on an association between known cloudiness states and historical weather data. A cloudiness state is predicted based on forecasted weather data. An irradiance is predicted using a regression model associated with the cloudiness state.

Hamann, Hendrik F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biomass Feedstock Flow Modeling at Exascale

Variable biomass feedstock handling in hoppers and screw conveyors can cause upstream failures and disrupt downstream conversion operations. Understanding how particle size, shape, and moisture content affect feedstock flowability is important for efficient biorefinery operation. We present the use of our open-source discrete element method (DEM) solver for predicting flows in large scale hoppers and assess its performance on state-of-the-art high performance computing platforms that use heterogenous computing architectures.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning for Battery Health Diagnosis

Battery health diagnosis often requires time-consuming measurements in laboratory conditions, but these types of measurements are unsuitable for use in real-world application such as electric vehicles. Instead, rapid measurements that can be conducted at varying environmental conditions need to be used to monitor battery health. Machine-learning techniques can then be utilized to connect these rapid measurements to health diagnostic information recorded in the lab. This presentation is a part of a tutorial on using machine-learning methods to analyze and predict battery state.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

DED Additively Manufactured HEAs Optimized via Parametric Study of Functionally Graded Materials

Complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) are a system of alloys composition of nearly equiatomic elements, creating a state of high configurational entropy in the material. These alloys are of interest for various industrial applications due to their high strength and hardness, wide operational temperature range, creep and diffusion resistance, and radiation resistance. In the current work CoCrFeNi-base CCAs are synthesize by combining three commonly industrial alloys: IN718, SS316L, and 70Co30Cr (commercially known as Stellite 21), in-situ utilizing directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM). One bulk specimen is fabricated with a 1:1:1 ratio of IN718, SS316L, and 70Co30Cr where IN718 is a source of nickel and chrome, SS316 is a source of iron and chrome, and 70Co30Cr is a source of cobalt and supplemental chrome. Additionally, a functionally graded material (FGM) of the identified CCA system from SS316 was fabricated with 10 layers, where the initial five layers are the base material of SS316L and graded by steps of 20% to transition to the CCA system. Overall build quality, microstructure, compositional distribution, phases analysis, and microhardness were studied by laser optical microscopy, scanning election microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), and Vickers microhardness techniques. Overall build quality showed a successful bulk build with acceptable density, however unmelted particles are observed in the as-built alloy. Compositional results show that the system meets the Boltzmann’s hypothesis definition of an HEA, and that an FCC CCA was produced with increased hardness, small grain size, and superior hardness properties to the SS316L substrate. While initial XRD results show predominately FCC structure, EDS analysis of interdendritic regions show the existence of Laves phases in the material. The fabrication of an FGM CCA allowed for potential screening of additional alloy mixes which may be of interest to explore in future research, and the resulting composition is compared to predicted values. This novel method of CCA fabrication results in substantial cost savings of these CCA systems over traditional methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗