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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

NASA NTRS2014

New Laboratory-Based Satellite Impact Experiments for Breakup Fragment Characterization

A consortium consisting of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, U.S. Air Force's Space and Missile Systems Center, the Aerospace Corporation, and University of Florida is planning a series of hypervelocity impact experiments on mockup targets at the U.S. Air Force's Arnold Engineering Development Complex (AEDC) in early 2014. The target for the first experiment resembles a rocket upper stage whereas the target for the second experiment represents a typical 60‐cm/50‐kg class payload that incorporates modern spacecraft materials and components as well as exterior wrap of multi‐layer insulation and three solar panels. The projectile is designed with the maximum mass that AEDC's Range G two‐stage light gas gun can accelerate to an impact speed of 7 km/sec. The impact energy is expected to be close to 15 MJ to ensure catastrophic destruction of the target after the impact. Low density foam panels are installed inside the target chamber to slow down and soft‐catch the fragments for post‐impact processing. Diagnostic instruments, such as x‐ray and high speed optical cameras, will also be used to record the breakup process. The main goal of this "DebriSat" project is to characterize the physical properties, including size, mass, shape, and density distributions, of orbital debris that would be generated by a hypervelocity collision involving an upper stage or a modern satellite in the low Earth orbit environment. In addition, representative fragments will be selected for laboratory optical and radar measurements to allow for better interpretation of data obtained by telescope and radar observations. This paper will provide a preliminary report of the impact results and the plans to process, measure, and analyze the fragments.

Liou, J.-C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pushing the Limits of Aquatic Remote Sensing: Synthetic Data and Deep Learning for Fast Inverse Emulation of A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer Model

The inversion of electromagnetic information to physical and biological properties of the water column is a notoriously difficult problem, yet fundamental to our ability of understanding aquatic processes on large time and space scales. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will discuss research integrating advanced biological and radiative modeling, high-end computation, and machine learning to develop a portable global processor for simultaneous retrieval of atmosphere and water optics for diverse aquatic systems from the open and coastal ocean to optically extreme inland waters and harmful algal blooms. We will discuss some of the basic concepts behind the forward modeling approach including DEAP, the novel Distributed Equivalent Algal Populations model, for developing large spectral libraries of aquatic particle optics to aid in our ability to distinguish phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) and inorganic material, as well as other factors which enable comprehensive modeling from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). This information is being used to understand how we can leverage next-generation deep learning methods for maximum information retrieval and rapid image processing, while also providing capabilities to identify minimum sensor spectral requirements necessary for certain aquatic applications. Further, I will touch on how we envision this research to enable the aquatic community for science discovery and how we are moving closer towards the capability for high-fidelity global analysis of aquatic ecosystems.

Jeremy Alan Kravitz↗

NASA NTRS2011

Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and land surface hydrology through simulation, downscaling, and data assimilation. An overview of the GPM mission, science status, and synergies with HyMex activities will be presented

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Introduction to Analysis Methods for Big Earth Data

Big Earth Data are too big to be tractable to simple data inspection and require models to make sense of all the data. Useful models for Big Earth Data may be physical, statistical, or machine learning based. In many cases, hybrid models combine attributes of two or more of these types.

parallel processing (computers)↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Amorphous Composition of Three Mudstone Samples from Gale Crater: Implications for Weathering and Diagenetic Processes on Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, is exploring the lowermost formation of Gale crater's central mound. Within this formation, three samples named Marimba, Quela, and Sebina have been analyzed by the CheMin X-ray diffractometer and the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) to determine mineralogy and bulk elemental chemistry, respectively. Marimba and Quela were also analyzed by the SAM (Sample Analysis at Mars) instrument to characterize the type and abundance of volatile phases detected in evolved gas analyses (EGA). CheMin data show similar proportions of plagioclase, hematite, and Ca-sulfates along with a mixture of di- and trioctahedral smectites at abundances of approximately 28, approximately 16, and approximately 18 wt% for Marimba, Quela, and Sebina. Approximately 50 wt% of each mudstone is comprised of X-ray amorphous and trace crystalline phases present below the CheMin detection limit (approximately 1 wt%). APXS measurements reveal a distinct bulk elemental chemistry that cannot be attributed to the clay mineral variation alone indicating a variable amorphous phase assemblage exists among the three mudstones. To explore the amorphous component, the calculated amorphous composition and SAM EGA results are used to identify amorphous phases unique to each mudstone. For example, the amorphous fraction of Marimba has twice the FeO wt% compared to Quela and Sebina yet, SAM EGA data show no evidence for Fe-sulfates. These data imply that Fe must reside in alternate Fe-bearing amorphous phases (e.g., nanophase iron oxides, ferrihydrite, etc.). Constraining the composition, abundances, and proposed identity of the amorphous fraction provides an opportunity to speculate on the past physical, chemical, and/or diagenetic processes which produced such phases in addition to sediment sources, lake chemistry, and the broader geologic history of Gale crater.

Achilles, C. N.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Accurate Magnetometer/Gyroscope Attitudes Using a Filter with Correlated Sensor Noise

Magnetometers and gyroscopes have been shown to provide very accurate attitudes for a variety of spacecraft. These results have been obtained, however, using a batch-least-squares algorithm and long periods of data. For use in onboard applications, attitudes are best determined using sequential estimators such as the Kalman filter. When a filter is used to determine attitudes using magnetometer and gyroscope data for input, the resulting accuracy is limited by both the sensor accuracies and errors inherent in the Earth magnetic field model. The Kalman filter accounts for the random component by modeling the magnetometer and gyroscope errors as white noise processes. However, even when these tuning parameters are physically realistic, the rate biases (included in the state vector) have been found to show systematic oscillations. These are attributed to the field model errors. If the gyroscope noise is sufficiently small, the tuned filter 'memory' will be long compared to the orbital period. In this case, the variations in the rate bias induced by field model errors are substantially reduced. Mistuning the filter to have a short memory time leads to strongly oscillating rate biases and increased attitude errors. To reduce the effect of the magnetic field model errors, these errors are estimated within the filter and used to correct the reference model. An exponentially-correlated noise model is used to represent the filter estimate of the systematic error. Results from several test cases using in-flight data from the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory are presented. These tests emphasize magnetometer errors, but the method is generally applicable to any sensor subject to a combination of random and systematic noise.

Sedlak, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Fracture mechanics evaluation of GaAs

A data base of mechanical and fracture properties for GaAs was generated. The data for single crystal GaAs will be used to design reusable GaAs solar modules. Database information includes; (1) physical property characterizations; (2) fracture behavior evaluations; and (3) strength of cells determined as a function of cell processing and material parameters.

Chen, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Precedency control and other semantic integrity issues in a workbench database

Most database systems model the current state of a system of real world discrete and simple entities together with their relationships. By examining instead a database system that is a workbench and models more complicated entities, a fresh perspective is gained. Specifically, semantic integrity is analysed. Four aspects distinct from physical integrity are identified, namely - access, failure, concurrency and precedency. Access control is shown to be the consequence of semantic interdependency between data and its matching semantic routines. Failure, concurrency precedency controls are concerned with preventing processes interfering with each other. Precedency is a new concept in the database context. It expresses a constraint between processes that act on the database. As processes create, update and delete entities they in general obey a partial ordering imposed by the semantics of their actions. Precedency control ensures that data remains consistent with respect to this partial order.

Dampney, C. N. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Span graphics display utilities handbook, first edition

The Space Physics Analysis Network (SPAN) is a computer network connecting scientific institutions throughout the United States. This network provides an avenue for timely, correlative research between investigators, in a multidisciplinary approach to space physics studies. An objective in the development of SPAN is to make available direct and simplified procedures that scientists can use, without specialized training, to exchange information over the network. Information exchanges include raw and processes data, analysis programs, correspondence, documents, and graphite images. This handbook details procedures that can be used to exchange graphic images over SPAN. The intent is to periodically update this handbook to reflect the constantly changing facilities available on SPAN. The utilities described within reflect an earnest attempt to provide useful descriptions of working utilities that can be used to transfer graphic images across the network. Whether graphic images are representative of satellite servations or theoretical modeling and whether graphics images are of device dependent or independent type, the SPAN graphics display utilities handbook will be the users guide to graphic image exchange.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Weather prediction using a genetic memory

Kanaerva's sparse distributed memory (SDM) is an associative memory model based on the mathematical properties of high dimensional binary address spaces. Holland's genetic algorithms are a search technique for high dimensional spaces inspired by evolutional processes of DNA. Genetic Memory is a hybrid of the above two systems, in which the memory uses a genetic algorithm to dynamically reconfigure its physical storage locations to reflect correlations between the stored addresses and data. This architecture is designed to maximize the ability of the system to scale-up to handle real world problems.

Rogers, David↗

NASA NTRS1993

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Dissemination and fractionation of projectile materials in the impact melts from Wabar Crater, Saudi Arabia

Results are presented from the analyses of small ballistically dispersed melt samples (occurring in the form of aerodynamically shaped spheres, dumbbells, and teardrops) from the Wabar Crater (Saudi Arabia) and of melts from the Wabar and Nejed meteorites. On the basis of the data obtained and of models for crater forming processes it is concluded that the ballistically-dispersed glasses were formed from material at shallow levels in the target zone where temperatures were higher and where intimate physical contact with the disrupting impactor was achieved. Siderophile element fractionation was completed early, while the impactor was undergoing decompression and prior to mixing with the target glasses.

Mittlefehldt, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observations of the Thermal Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Information on the thermal structure of the Martian atmosphere has been obtained using several different techniques, including in situ sounding from decent probes, radio occultations and infrared thermal emission measurements from orbiters, and earth based full-disk microwave measurements. Knowledge of the 3- dimensional atmospheric temperature field and its temporal variation provides an important observational approach to the study of the dynamics of the atmosphere. Comparison of the observed thermal structure with results from a Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) can be used to refine the model and provide greater insight into the physical processes controlling the dynamics of the atmosphere. Direct assimilation of the temperature observations into an MGCM can also be used to address similar goals. In addition, relatively simple diagnostic models can be applied to the data to directly obtain information on winds and other meteorological properties of the atmosphere. In this overview, we concentrate primarily on the structure retrieved from thermal emission measurements. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Conrath, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics of the Regional Hydrologic Cycle

Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of surface evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote geographic sources of surface evaporation for precipitation, based on the implementation of three-dimensional constituent tracers of regional water vapor sources (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. The major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In the WVT approach, each tracer is associated with an evaporative source region for a prognostic three-dimensional variable that represents a partial amount of the total atmospheric water vapor. The physical processes that act on a WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be predicted within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional sources, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In most North American continental regions, the local source of precipitation is correlated with total precipitation. There is a general positive correlation between local evaporation and local precipitation, but it can be weaker because large evaporation can occur when precipitation is inhibited. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Search for Young Planetary Systems And the Evolution of Young Stars

The Space Interferometer Mission (SIM) will provide a census of planetary systems by con- ducting a broad survey of 2,000 stars that will be sensitive to the presence of planets with masses as small as approx. 15 Earth masses (1 Uranus mass) and a deep survey of approx. 250 of the nearest, stars with a mass limit of approx.3 Earth masses. The broad survey will include stars spanning a wide range of ages, spectral types, metallicity, and other important parameters. Within this larger context, the Young Stars and Planets Key Project will study approx. 200 stars with ages from 1 Myr to 100 Myr to understand the formation and dynamical evolution of gas giant planets. The SIM Young Stars and Planets Project will investigate both the frequency of giant planet formation and the early dynamical history of planetary systems. We will gain insight into how common the basic architecture of our solar system is compared with recently discovered systems with close-in giant planets by examining 200 of the nearest (less than 150 pc) and youngest (1-100 Myr) solar-type stars for planets. The sensitivity of the survey for stars located 140 pc away is shown in the planet mass-separation plane. We expect to find anywhere from 10 (assuming that only the presently known fraction of stars. 5-7%, has planets) to 200 (all young stars have planets) planetary systems. W-e have set our sensitivity threshold to ensure the detection of Jupiter-mass planets in the critical orbital range of 1 to 5 AU. These observations, when combined with the results of planetary searches of mature stars, will allow us to test theories of planetary formation and early solar system evolution. By searching for planets around pre-main sequence stars carefully selected to span an age range from 1 to 100 Myr, we will learn a t what epoch and with what frequency giant planets are found at the water-ice snowline where they are expected to form. This will provide insight into the physical mechanisms by which planets form and migrate from their place of birth, and about their survival rate. With these data in hand, we will provide data, for the first time, on such important questions as: What processes affect the formation and dynamical evolution of planets? When and where do planets form? What is initial mass distribution of planetary systems around young stars? How might planets be destroyed? What is the origin of the eccentricity of planetary orbits? What is the origin of the apparent dearth of companion objects between planets and brown dwarfs seen in mature stars? The observational strategy is a compromise between the desire to extend the planetary mass function as low as possible and the essential need to build up sufficient statistics on planetary occurrence. About half of the sample will be used to address the "where" and "when" of planet formation. We will study classical T Tauri stars (cTTs) which have massive accretion disks and post- accretion, weak-lined T Tauri stars (wTTs). Preliminary estimates suggest the sample will consist of approx. 30% cTTs and approx. 70% wTTs, driven in part by the difficulty of making accurate astrometric measurements toward objects with strong variability or prominent disks.

Beichman, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Common Badging and Access Control System (CBACS)

The goals of the project are: Achieve high business value through a common badging and access control system that integrates with smart cards. Provide physical (versus logical) deployment of smart cards initially. Provides a common consistent and reliable environment into which to release the smart card. Gives opportunity to develop agency-wide consistent processes, practices and policies. Enables enterprise data capture and management. Promotes data validation prior to SC issuance.

Baldridge, Tim↗

NASA NTRS2007

Wire Crimp Connectors Verification using Ultrasonic Inspection

The development of a new ultrasonic measurement technique to quantitatively assess wire crimp connections is discussed. The amplitude change of a compressional ultrasonic wave propagating through the junction of a crimp connector and wire is shown to correlate with the results of a destructive pull test, which previously has been used to assess crimp wire junction quality. Various crimp junction pathologies (missing wire strands, incorrect wire gauge, incomplete wire insertion in connector) are ultrasonically tested, and their results are correlated with pull tests. Results show that the ultrasonic measurement technique consistently (as evidenced with pull-testing data) predicts good crimps when ultrasonic transmission is above a certain threshold amplitude level. A physics-based model, solved by finite element analysis, describes the compressional ultrasonic wave propagation through the junction during the crimping process. This model is in agreement within 6% of the ultrasonic measurements. A prototype instrument for applying the technique while wire crimps are installed is also presented.

Cramer, K. Elliott↗