Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance modeling and prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) [Abstract]

Approximately half of global energy consumption is used for heating and cooling. Because fossil fuels are used to meet most of this demand, heating and cooling of buildings produces a large portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The proposed project seeks to demonstrate the feasibility of a seasonal thermal energy storage concept called fracture thermal energy storage (FTES), which has the potential to dramatically lower energy requirements for heating and cooling and improve the resilience of building energy systems. FTES is a technique for building a highly efficient heat exchanger by creating a carefully designed set of fractures in the ground below a building. This heat exchanger allows thermal energy to be stored over seasonal timeframes—for example, hot thermal energy that is easily captured in the summer or energy from waste heat sources—to meet heating needs during colder months. FTES offers a solution with a relatively small footprint and lower cost compared to currently operating aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems and could be used in the many areas without aquifers suitable for ATES. If commercialized, FTES systems could exceed the 2.5 TWh of energy storage per year from the more than 2,800 ATES systems in operation worldwide, which range from 0.1 MW to 30 MW. The savings in CO2 emissions per year are also expected to match or exceed individual ATES projects, with the largest, a 30 MW system used to provide heating and cooling to the University of Technology in Eindhoven in the Netherlands, estimated to save 13,000 tons of CO2 emissions per year. FTES utilizes mature drilling and fracturing technology and therefore has the potential to be rapidly commercialized once demonstrated. The ability to construct and establish flow through an FTES heat exchanger has been demonstrated by a previous project and the potential for efficient, large-capacity energy storage has been shown using numerical models. However, no experimental validation of these numerical estimates of thermal energy storage has been made. The first crucial need to advance FTES technology is to identify the sensitivity of key metrics such as thermal energy storage and production rates, capacities, and efficiencies to design parameters such as the number of fractures, depth/temperature of fractures, size of fractures, and circulation rates. The second crucial need is experimental testing of achievable thermal performance with optimized system design parameters. The proposed scope of work seeks to systematically address these two critical needs through a highly complementary international collaboration spanning theory, laboratory, and mesoscale field evaluation. The proposed work plan calls for using dimensional analysis and existing state-of-the-art numerical simulators to design carefully scaled laboratory and 10-meter-scale field tests of the thermal efficiency of FTES. The existing advanced laboratory and intermediate-scale field testbeds that will be used for this project will allow for detailed monitoring of the system performance during the test and of how the performance changes across time and length scales. These results will determine the feasibility of full- scale FTES systems. If the thermal performance is consistent with model predictions, the results will provide a strong economic justification for rapid commercialization of FTES technology in a wide range of geographical areas.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Establishment of a Vertically Integrated Domestic Manufacturing Process for Production of Substrates Needed for Manufacture of Gas Diffusion Layers

In this project, AvCarb, LLC evaluated the baseline performance metrics of commercial carbon veils and their corresponding Gas Diffusion Layers (GDLs) with the goal of establishing an optimized, vertically integrated production system for wet-laid nonwoven substrates used in gas diffusion media for electrochemical energy storage and conversion devices. Mechanical testing and microstructural characterization were conducted and used to develop a multiscale computational model capable of simulating and predicting the performance of GDLs in fuel cells. Although the project successfully generated foundational transport and modeling data, it was terminated prior to identifying the critical GDL design parameters necessary for full optimization. The program aimed to improve carbon veil fabrication through enhanced fiber dispersion, fiber-fiber adhesion control, and improved web formation, enabling the production of high-quality, uniform substrates. Simulations were intended to guide mixing and solution delivery system design and process conditions, followed by production-scale trials to evaluate fiber dispersion, web uniformity, and mechanical robustness. At full deployment, the proposed production line would have been capable of producing approximately 650,000 m² of carbon veil annually. This capability remains strategically important, as the United States currently lacks a domestic source of wet-laid nonwoven carbon substrates that satisfy the stringent quality requirements for fuel-cell GDLs and electrolyzers representing an ongoing supply-chain vulnerability. Beyond supply-chain benefits, the project established a robust benchmarking dataset for existing commercial carbon veils while advancing next-generation material concepts targeting improved performance and manufacturing consistency.

Olson, Cynthia Lemay↗

MuSIKAL: Multiphysics Simulations and Knowledge Discovery through AI/ML Technologies

Under the MuSiKAL project, we developed a framework for a coastal digital twin (DT) platform capable of integrating diverse data resources, configuring multiscale model simulations, performing SciML‐accelerated predictions, with applications primarily driven by storm surge and heavily rainfall events impacting the Gulf Coast of the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Dust-Cloud-Radiation-Precipitation Dynamical Feedback on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Global Variable-Resolution Simulations With MPAS-CAM5

In this study, we investigate the effects of increased dust emission from the Middle East deserts on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S₂S) variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Numerical experiments are performed using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) coupled with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) physics, with regional refinement at 30 km grid resolution over South Asia and the surrounding regions. Result shows that increased dust emission and transport from the Middle East/West Asia region induces a strong dust-cloud-radiation-precipitation-circulation feedback, resulting in a colder surface over the desert regions and the western Tibetan Plateau, but warmer and moister troposphere with enhanced cloudiness and precipitation over the Pakistan/Northwest India (PNWI) region. The latter changes are amplified by the dust aerosol induced Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) mechanism along the West Himalayas/Iranian Plateau foothill regions, most pronounced during May-June. During July-August, cloud radiation feedback further enhances the warming of the upper troposphere, and cooling of the land surface over the PNWI and adjacent regions over West Asia. The upper tropospheric heating and increased precipitation over PNWI spur a large-scale anomalous Rossby wavetrain and a northward displacement of the subtropical jetstream, manifesting in a contraction of the South Asian High and westward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. As a result, the entire ASM precipitation-cloud system is displaced westward. Precipitation and cloudiness are intensified over northwest and western India and west Asia, but suppressed over southern and central East Asia. Analyses of the S₂S variability of the upper level vorticity balance suggests that heating by Middle East dust plays an important role in exciting, and anchoring a teleconnection pattern through interactions among dust-cloud radiation, precipitation heating over the PNWI, the development of an upper level Rossby wavetrain, and the northward shift of the boreal summer jetstream over Eurasia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

A miniature two-axis fluxgate magnetometer

Miniature fluxgate magnetometer for sounding rocket measurements of two orthogonal components of external magnetic field, predicting performance by linear mathematical model

Acuna, M. H.↗

Modeling and prediction of ionospheric scintillation

Scintillation modeling performed thus far is based on the theory of diffraction by a weakly modulating phase screen developed by Briggs and Parkin (1963). Shortcomings of the existing empirical model for the scintillation index are discussed together with questions of channel modeling, giving attention to the needs of the communication engineers. It is pointed out that much improved scintillation index models may be available in a matter of a year or so.

Fremouw, E. J.↗

The detection of geothermal areas from Skylab thermal data

Skylab-4 X-5 thermal data of the geysers area was analyzed to determine the feasibility of using midday Skylab images to detect geothermal areas. The hottest ground areas indicated on the Skylab image corresponded to south-facing barren or sparsely vegetated slopes. A geothermal area approximately 15 by 30 m coincided with one of the hottest areas indicated by Skylab. This area could not be unambiguously distinguished from the other areas which are believed to be hotter than their surroundings as a result of their topography, and micrometeorological conditions. A simple modification of a previous thermal model was performed and the predicted temperatures for the hottest slopes using representative values was in general agreement with the observed data. It is concluded that data from a single midday Skylab pass cannot be used to locate geothermal areas.

Siegal, B. S.↗

Application of LSI to signal detection: The deltic DFPCC

The development of the DELTIC DFPCC serial mode signal processor is discussed. The processor is designed to detect in the presence of background noise a signal coded into the zero crossings of the waveform. The unique features of the DELTIC DFPCC include versatility in handling a variety of signals and relative simplicity in implementation. A theoretical performance model is presented which predicts the expected value of the output signal as a function of the input signal to noise ratio. Experimental results obtained with the prototype system, which was breadboarded with LSI, MSI and SSI components, are given. The device was compared with other LSI schemes for signal processing and it was concluded that the DELTIC DFPCC is simpler and in some cases more versatile than other systems. With established LSI technology, low frequency systems applicable to sonar and similar problems are feasible.

Gassaway, J. D.↗

Cost performance satellite design using queueing theory

A modified Poisson arrival, infinite server queuing model is used to determine the effects of limiting the number of broadcast channels (C) of a direct broadcast satellite used for public service purposes (remote health care, education, etc.). The model is based on the reproductive property of the Poisson distribution. A difference equation has been developed to describe the change in the Poisson parameter. When all initially delayed arrivals reenter the system a (C plus 1) order polynomial must be solved to determine the effective value of the Poisson parameter. When less than 100% of the arrivals reenter the system the effective value must be determined by solving a transcendental equation. The model was used to determine the minimum number of channels required for a disaster warning satellite without degradation in performance. Results predicted by the queuing model were compared with the results of digital simulation.

Hein, G. F.↗

Thermoelectrically cooled cloud physics expansion chamber

The design and fabrication of a thermoelectric chiller for use in chilling a liquid reservoir is described. Acceptance test results establish the accuracy of the thermal model and predict the unit performance under various conditions required by the overall spacelab program.

Buist, R. J.↗

Primary Electric Propulsion Technology Study

An investigation of the 30-cm engineering-model-thruster technology with emphasis placed on the development of models for understanding and predicting the operational characteristics and wear-out mechanisms of the thruster as a function of operating or design parameters is presented. The task studies include: (1) the wear mechanisms and wear rates that determine the useful lifetime of the thruster discharge chamber; (2) cathode lifetime as determined by the depletion of barium from the barium-aluminate-impregnated-porous-tungsten insert that serves as a barium reservoir; (3) accelerator-grid-system technology; (4) a verification of the high-voltage propellant-flow-electrical-isolator design developed under NASA contract NAS3-20395 for operation at 10-kV applied voltage and 10-A equivalent propellant flow with mercury and argon propellants. A model was formulated for predicting performance.

Poeschel, R. L.↗

Testing of fuel/oxidizer-rich, high-pressure preburners

Results of an evaluation of high pressure combustion of fuel rich and oxidizer rich LOX/RP-1 propellants using 4.0 inch diameter prototype preburner injectors and chambers are presented. Testing covered a pressure range from 8.9 to 17.5 MN/square meters (1292 to 2540 psia). Fuel rich mixture ratios ranged from 0.238 to 0.367; oxidizer rich mixture ratios ranged from 27.2 to 47.5. Performance, gas temperature uniformity, and stability data for two fuel rich and two ozidizer rich preburner injectors are presented for a conventional like-on-like (LOL) design and a platelet design injector. Kinetically limited combustion is shown by the excellent agreement of measured fuel rich gas composition and C performance data with kinetic model predictions. The oxidizer rich test results support previous equilibrium combustion predictions.

Lawver, B. R.↗

Carbon dioxide evolution rate as a method to monitor and control an aerobic biological waste treatment system

An experimental system was developed to study the microbial growth kinetic of an undefined mixed culture in an erobic biological waste treatment process. The experimental results were used to develop a mathematical model that can predict the performance of a bioreactor. The bioreactor will be used to regeneratively treat waste material which is expected to be generated during a long term manned space mission. Since the presence of insoluble particles in the chemically undefined complex media made estimating biomass very difficult in the real system, a clean system was devised to study the microbial growth from the soluble substrate.

Lee, S. S.↗