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Statistical Evaluation of Combined Daily Gauge Observations and Rainfall Satellite Estimations over Continental South America

This paper describes a comprehensive assessment of a new high-resolution, high-quality gauge-satellite based analysis of daily precipitation over continental South America during 2004. This methodology is based on a combination of additive and multiplicative bias correction schemes in order to get the lowest bias when compared with the observed values. Inter-comparisons and cross-validations tests have been carried out for the control algorithm (TMPA real-time algorithm) and different merging schemes: additive bias correction (ADD), ratio bias correction (RAT) and TMPA research version, for different months belonging to different seasons and for different network densities. All compared merging schemes produce better results than the control algorithm, but when finer temporal (daily) and spatial scale (regional networks) gauge datasets is included in the analysis, the improvement is remarkable. The Combined Scheme (CoSch) presents consistently the best performance among the five techniques. This is also true when a degraded daily gauge network is used instead of full dataset. This technique appears a suitable tool to produce real-time, high-resolution, high-quality gauge-satellite based analyses of daily precipitation over land in regional domains.

Vila, Daniel↗

IUE data reduction: Wavelength determinations and line identifications using a VAX/750 computer

A fully automated, interactive system for determining the wavelengths of features in extracted IUE spectra is described. Wavelengths are recorded from video displays of expanded plots of individual orders using a movable cursor, and then corrected for IUE wavelength scale errors. The estimated accuracy of an individual wavelength in the final tabulation is 0.050 A. Such lists are ideally suited for line identification work using the method of wavelength coincidence statistics (WCS). The results of WCS studies of the ultraviolet spectra of the chemically peculiar (CP) stars iota Coronae Borealis and kappa Camcri. Aside from confirming a number of previously reported aspects of the abundance patterns in these stars, the searches produced some interesting, new discoveries, notably the presence of Hf in the spectrum of kappa Camcri. The implications of this work for theories designed to account for anomalous abundances in chemically peculiar stars are discussed.

Davidson, J. P.↗

Stellar fibril magnetic systems. I - Reduced energy state

The remarkable fibril structure of the magnetic fields at the surface of the sun (with fibrils compressed to 1,000-2,000 gauss) lies outside existing statistical theories of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. The total energy of the fibril field is enhanced by a factor of more than 100 above the energy for the mean field in a continuum state. The magnetic energy density within a fibril is of the order of 100 times the local kinetic energy density, so that no simple application of equipartition principles is possible. It is pointed out that the total energy of the atmosphere (thermal + gravitational + magnetic) is reduced by the fibril state of the field by avoiding the magnetic inhibition of the convective overturning, suggesting that the formation of the observed intense fibril state may be in response to the associated energy reduction. Calculation of the minimum total energy of a polytropic atmosphere permeated by magnetic fibrils yields theoretical fibril fields of the order of 1-5 kilogauss when characteristics appropriate to the solar convective zone are introduced, in rough agreement with the actual fields of 1-2 kilogauss. The polytrope model, although crude, establishes that a large reduction in total energy is made possible by the fibril state.

Parker, E. N.↗

Analysis of global cloud imagery from multiple satellites

IR measurements simultaneously conducted by four GEO and two polar-orbit satellites have been used to create synoptic global cloud-field images. The composite Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), with 0.5-deg horizontal resolution and 3-hr temporal resolution, constitute a nearly instantaneous snapshot of the global cloud pattern. To facilitate analysis of global cloud behavior, the GCI has been constructed with certain homogeneous properties. An interactive Image Analysis System (IAS) is developed in order to investigate the space-time behavior of global cloud activity. Due to its customized architecture and the homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS can perform space-time covariance analyses of the three-dimensional data with 'interactive' speed. Statistical properties of cloud variability are given.

Salby, Murry L.↗

A Statistical Study of the Global Structure of the Ring Current

In this paper we derive the average configuration of the ring current as a function of the state of the magnetosphere as indicated by the Dst index. We sort magnetic field data from the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) by spatial location and by the Dst index in order to produce magnetic field maps. From these maps we calculate local current systems by taking the curl of the magnetic field. NN7e find both the westward (outer) and the eastward (inner) components of the ring current. We find that the ring current intensity varies linearly with D.St as expected, and that the ring current is asymmetric for all Dst values. The azimuthal peak of the ring current is located in the afternoon sector for quiet conditions, and near midnight for disturbed conditions. The ring current also moves closer to the Earth during disturbed conditions. We are able to recreate the Dst index by integrating the magnetic perturbations caused by the ring current. We find that we needed to apply a 20 nT offset to Dst, and assume a perfectly conducting Earth to obtain an optimal agreement between the computed and the observed Dst. We interpret the 20 nT offset as the magnetic field generated by the quiet time ring current used as baseline in computing Dst.

Jorgensen, A. M.↗

Tropospheric Ozone Near-Nadir-Viewing IR Spectral Sensitivity and Ozone Measurements from NAST-I

Infrared ozone spectra from near nadir observations have provided atmospheric ozone information from the sensor to the Earth's surface. Simulations of the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (approximately 20 km altitude) with a spectral resolution of 0.25/cm were used for sensitivity analysis. The spectral sensitivity of ozone retrievals to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and water vapor is assessed in order to understand the relationship between the IR emissions and the atmospheric state. In addition, ozone spectral radiance sensitivity to its ozone layer densities and radiance weighting functions reveals the limit of the ozone profile retrieval accuracy from NAST-I measurements. Statistical retrievals of ozone with temperature and moisture retrievals from NAST-I spectra have been investigated and the preliminary results from NAST-I field campaigns are presented.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

Unsteady Probabilistic Analysis of a Gas Turbine System

In this work, we have considered an annular cascade configuration subjected to unsteady inflow conditions. The unsteady response calculation has been implemented into the time marching CFD code, MSUTURBO. The computed steady state results for the pressure distribution demonstrated good agreement with experimental data. We have computed results for the amplitudes of the unsteady pressure over the blade surfaces. With the increase in gas turbine engine structural complexity and performance over the past 50 years, structural engineers have created an array of safety nets to ensure against component failures in turbine engines. In order to reduce what is now considered to be excessive conservatism and yet maintain the same adequate margins of safety, there is a pressing need to explore methods of incorporating probabilistic design procedures into engine development. Probabilistic methods combine and prioritize the statistical distributions of each design variable, generate an interactive distribution and offer the designer a quantified relationship between robustness, endurance and performance. The designer can therefore iterate between weight reduction, life increase, engine size reduction, speed increase etc.

Brown, Marilyn↗

Simulating Visual Attention Allocation of Pilots in an Advanced Cockpit Environment

This paper describes the results of experiments conducted with human line pilots and a cognitive pilot model during interaction with a new 40 Flight Management System (FMS). The aim of these experiments was to gather human pilot behavior data in order to calibrate the behavior of the model. Human behavior is mainly triggered by visual perception. Thus, the main aspect was to setup a profile of human pilots' visual attention allocation in a cockpit environment containing the new FMS. We first performed statistical analyses of eye tracker data and then compared our results to common results of familiar analyses in standard cockpit environments. The comparison has shown a significant influence of the new system on the visual performance of human pilots. Further on, analyses of the pilot models' visual performance have been performed. A comparison to human pilots' visual performance revealed important improvement potentials.

Frische, F.↗

Pre-Flight Advanced Clothing Study

All human space missions require significant logistical mass and volume that will become an excessive burden for long duration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The current International Space Station (ISS) crew wardrobe has already evolved not only to reduce some of the logistical burden but also to address crew preference. The present study was undertaken to find ways further to reduce this logistical burden while examining human response to different types of clothes. The primary objective of the study is to measure how long people can wear the same exercise garment, depending on the type of fabric and the presence of antimicrobial treatment. The secondary objective is to assess the reasons for length of wear from perceptions of clothing characteristics, including nine ordinal scales. Cardiovascular exercise was chosen as the activity in this experiment for its profuse sweating effect and because it is considered a more severe treatment applied to the clothes than every-day usage. Study garments were exercise T-shirts and shorts purchased from various vendors. Fabric construction, fabric composition, and finishing treatment were defined as the key variables. A web-based questionnaire was used for self-reported data collection. The study was divided in three balanced experiments: a cotton-polyester-wool (CPW) T-shirts study with 61 participants, a polyester-modacrylic-polyester/cocona (PMC) T-shirts study with 40 participants, and a shorts study with 70 participants. In the CPW study, the T-shirts were made of 100% cotton, or of 100% polyester or of 100% wool, and categorized into open and tight knit constructions. In the PMC study, the T-shirts were made of 100% polyester, or of 82% modacrylic, or of 95% polyester with 5% cocona fiber, without construction distinction. The shorts were made either of 100% cotton or of 100% polyester, and were knitted or woven. Some garments were treated with Bio-Protect 500 antimicrobial finish according the experimental design. The data collected from the questionnaire included garment identification, level of exertion, duration of exercise session, number of exercise sessions, an ordinal preference scale for nine sensory elements, and reason for retiring a used garment. From the analysis of the combined CPW and PMC shirt studies, there are statistically significant differences among the mean lifetimes of various types of shirts. The exercise shirts with the longest mean lifetimes are untreated wool (600 minutes), treated cotton (526 minutes), and untreated modacrylic (515 minutes). From the combined CPW and PMC shirt studies, the most preferred material was untreated open-knit wool, which is one of the two materials that jointly were worn the longest, untreated wool, both open-knit and tight-knit. For the CP shorts study, there were no statistically significant differences in mean lifetimes of the exercise shorts at the 5% significance level due to the treatment combinations. There was therefore no justification to examine differences among levels of main effects or interactions. The preference for shorts was in this order: untreated woven polyester, untreated knitted polyester, untreated woven cotton, and treated knitted cotton.The nine preference scales were tabulated to determine the preference responses at the end of those exercise periods which were prior to the period when a garment was retired and a new garment was started. The assumption is that an unfavorable assessment of a garment leads to its retirement. The scent scale response was predominantly unfavorable at the end of the exercise period immediately prior to the exercise period when a new garment was started. Additional work on wool clothing is needed to assess if this material can be part of a crew wardrobe for long duration missions. The results of this study informed the choice of fabrics for an upcoming ISS intra-vehicular clothing study.

Orndoff, Evelyne↗

Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Project: Advanced Clothing Ground Study Final Report

All human space missions require significant logistical mass and volume that will become an excessive burden for long duration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The goal of the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction & Repurposing (LRR) project is to bring new ideas and technologies that will enable human presence in farther regions of space. The LRR project has five tasks: 1) Advanced Clothing System (ACS) to reduce clothing mass and volume, 2) Logistics to Living (L2L) to repurpose existing cargo, 3) Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) to reprocess materials in space, 4) Trash to Gas (TTG) to extract useful gases from trash, and 5) Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) to integrate these logistical components. The current International Space Station (ISS) crew wardrobe has already evolved not only to reduce some of the logistical burden but also to address crew preference. The ACS task is to find ways to further reduce this logistical burden while examining human response to different types of clothes. The ACS task has been broken into a series of studies on length of wear of various garments: 1) three small studies conducted through other NASA projects (MMSEV, DSH, HI-SEAS) focusing on length of wear of garments treated with an antimicrobial finish; 2) a ground study, which is the subject of this report, addressing both length of wear and subject perception of various types of garments worn during aerobic exercise; and 3) an ISS study replicating the ground study, and including every day clothing to collect information on perception in reduced gravity in which humans experience physiological changes. The goal of the ground study is first to measure how long people can wear the same exercise garment, depending on the type of fabric and the presence of antimicrobial treatment, and second to learn why. Human factors considerations included in the study consist of the Institutional Review Board approval, test protocol and participants' training, and a web-based data collection questionnaire. Cardiovascular exercise was chosen as the activity in this experiment for its profuse sweating effect and because it is considered a more severe treatment applied to the clothes than every-day usage. Study garments were exercise T-shirts and shorts purchased from various vendors. Fabric construction, fabric composition, and finishing treatment were defined as the key variables. The study was divided into three balanced experiments: a cotton-polyester-wool (CPW) T-shirts study with 61 participants, a polyester-modacrylic-polyester/cocona (PMC) T-shirts study with 40 participants, and a shorts study with 70 participants. In the CPW study, the T-shirts were made of 100% cotton, or of 100% polyester or of 100% wool, and categorized into open and tight knit constructions. In the PMC study, the T-shirts were made of 100% polyester, or of 82% modacrylic, or of 95% polyester with 5% cocona fiber, without construction distinction. The shorts were made either of 100% cotton or of 100% polyester, and were knitted or woven. Some garments were treated with Bio-Protect 500 antimicrobial finish according to the experimental design. The data collected from the questionnaire included garment identification, level of exertion, duration of exercise session, number of exercise sessions, an ordinal preference scale for nine sensory elements, and reason for retiring a used garment. From the analysis of the combined CPW and PMC shirt studies, there are statistically significant differences among the mean lifetimes of various types of shirts. The exercise shirts with the longest mean lifetimes are untreated wool (600 minutes), treated cotton (526 minutes), and untreated modacrylic (515 minutes). From the combined CPW and PMC shirt studies, the most preferred material was untreated open-knit wool, which is one of the two materials that jointly were worn the longest, untreated wool, both open-knit and tight-knit. For the CP shorts study, there were no statistically significant differences in mean lifetimes of the exercise shorts at the 5% significance level due to the treatment combinations. There was therefore no justification to examine differences among levels of main effects or interactions. The preference for shorts was in this order: untreated woven polyester, untreated knitted polyester, untreated woven cotton, and treated knitted cotton. The nine preference scales were tabulated to determine the preference responses at the end of those exercise periods which were prior to the period when a garment was retired and a new garment was started. The assumption is that an unfavorable assessment of a garment leads to its retirement. The scent scale response was predominantly unfavorable at the end of the exercise period immediately prior to the exercise period when a new garment was started.

Byrne, Vicky↗

Estimation of Aerosol Optical Depth at Different Wavelengths by Multiple Regression Method

This study aims to investigate and establish a suitable model that can help to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) in order to monitor aerosol variations especially during non-retrieval time. The relationship between actual ground measurements (such as air pollution index, visibility, relative humidity, temperature, and pressure) and AOD obtained with a CIMEL sun photometer was determined through a series of statistical procedures to produce an AOD prediction model with reasonable accuracy. The AOD prediction model calibrated for each wavelength has a set of coefficients. The model was validated using a set of statistical tests. The validated model was then employed to calculate AOD at different wavelengths. The results show that the proposed model successfully predicted AOD at each studied wavelength ranging from 340 nm to 1020 nm. To illustrate the application of the model, the aerosol size determined using measure AOD data for Penang was compared with that determined using the model. This was done by examining the curvature in the ln [AOD]-ln [wavelength] plot. Consistency was obtained when it was concluded that Penang was dominated by fine mode aerosol in 2012 and 2013 using both measured and predicted AOD data. These results indicate that the proposed AOD prediction model using routine measurements as input is a promising tool for the regular monitoring of aerosol variation during non-retrieval time.

Tan, Fuyi↗

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗

Measurement Uncertainty Analysis of 6x9 Icing Research Tunnel (IRT)

This paper presents the results of the measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed on the aero-thermal characteristics of the 6- by 9-Foot Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The engineering judgments and statistical methods used to determine the elemental uncertainties are described. Instrumentation uncertainty was quanti ed using MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) and instrument speci cation sheets. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic components of uncertainty in order to quantify the uncertainty of the Variables of Interest (VOI). A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method and the MANTUS tool can be found in the Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel report [1]. Detailed uncertainty results for test section airspeed and temperature as well as other variables of interest are described within this document.

6x9 Icing Research Tunnel↗

Coronal X-ray activity preceding solar flares

The characteristics of coronal emplacements preceding solar flares were investigated based on a comprehensive survey of Skylab soft X-ray images. A search interval of 30 min before flare was used in the X-ray observations. X-ray images with preflare enhancements were compared with high resolution H-alpha images and photospheric magnetograms and preflare enhancements were found in a statistically significant number of the observed preflare intervals. The enhancement events consisted of loops, kernels, and sinuous features with one to three separate preflare structures appearing in each interval. Typical gas pressures in the preflare X-ray features were estimated on the order of a few dyne per sq cm and densities were 4-10 x 10 to the -9th per cu cm for assumed average temperatures. H-alpha brightenings in the form of knots and patches were found in conjunction with the X-ray preflare features in nearly all of the intervals. It is concluded that H-alpha emission is characteristic of preflare emission processes. The observational data are interpreted within the framework of existing loop preheating models, and the results are discussed in detail.

Webb, D. F.↗

Characteristics of Seamounts Near Hawaii as Viewed by GLORIA

Using images and data acquired from the GLORIA sonar system, 390 seamounts within the U.S. Hawaiian Exclusive Economic Zone (HEEZ) off Hawaii have been studied. Their diameters range from 1 to 57 km. with most less than 15 km. Seamount abundance increases exponentially with decreasing size. The areal density of observed seamounts having diameters greater than 1 km is 182/10(exp 6) sq km. The theoretical abundance of seamounts of all sizes normalized to a unit area is (309 +/- 17)/10(exp 6) sq km, about an order of magnitude less than other surveyed areas of the Pacific. This may reflect a lower abundance of Cretaceous seamounts in this region, the covering of small seamounts by sediment, or discrepancies from the use of different data sets to derive the abundance statistics. The seamounts have morphologies ranging from steep-sided, flat-topped structures to cones to more amorphous structures; they are similar to volcanoes found elsewhere on the seafloor. A suite of secondary features associated with the seamounts includes summit craters, summit mounds, coalesced boundaries, landslides, and graben. Several seamount chains are aligned parallel to Cretaceous fracture zones, consistent with an origin close to the ancestral East Pacific Rise. Others are aligned parallel to the Necker Ridge, suggesting that they formed contemporaneously with Necker in the plate interior. This observation, together with high abundances of seamounts where other intraplate igneous processes have occurred, suggests some seamounts formed since leaving the spreading center.

Bridges, Nathan T.↗

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 2. Global analysis from MODIS

Global distributions of albedo susceptibility for areas covered by liquid clouds are presented for 4 months in 2005. The susceptibility estimates are based on expanded definitions presented in a companion paper and include relative cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) changes, perturbations in cloud droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, atmospheric/surface effects, and incorporation of the full solar spectrum. The cloud properties (optical thickness and effective radius) used as input in the susceptibility calculations come from MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection 5 gridded data. Geographical distributions of susceptibility corresponding to absolute ( absolute cloud susceptibility ) and relative ( relative cloud susceptibility ) CDNC changes are markedly different indicating that the detailed nature of the cloud microphysical perturbation is important for determining the radiative forcing associated with the first indirect aerosol effect. However, both types of susceptibility exhibit common characteristics such as significant reductions when perturbations in single-scattering properties are omitted, significant increases when atmospheric absorption and surface albedo effects are ignored, and the tendency to decrease with latitude, to be higher over ocean than over land, and to be statistically similar between the morning and afternoon MODIS overpasses. The satellite-based susceptibility analysis helps elucidate the role of present-day cloud and land surface properties in indirect aerosol forcing responses. Our realistic yet moderate CDNC perturbations yield forcings on the order of 1-2 W/sq m for cloud optical property distributions and land surface spectral albedos observed by MODIS. Since susceptibilities can potentially be computed from model fields, these results have practical application in assessing the reasonableness of model-generated estimates of the aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

Automated Conflict Resolution, Arrival Management and Weather Avoidance for ATM

The paper describes a unified solution to three types of separation assurance problems that occur in en-route airspace: separation conflicts, arrival sequencing, and weather-cell avoidance. Algorithms for solving these problems play a key role in the design of future air traffic management systems such as NextGen. Because these problems can arise simultaneously in any combination, it is necessary to develop integrated algorithms for solving them. A unified and comprehensive solution to these problems provides the foundation for a future air traffic management system that requires a high level of automation in separation assurance. The paper describes the three algorithms developed for solving each problem and then shows how they are used sequentially to solve any combination of these problems. The first algorithm resolves loss-of-separation conflicts and is an evolution of an algorithm described in an earlier paper. The new version generates multiple resolutions for each conflict and then selects the one giving the least delay. Two new algorithms, one for sequencing and merging of arrival traffic, referred to as the Arrival Manager, and the other for weather-cell avoidance are the major focus of the paper. Because these three problems constitute a substantial fraction of the workload of en-route controllers, integrated algorithms to solve them is a basic requirement for automated separation assurance. The paper also reviews the Advanced Airspace Concept, a proposed design for a ground-based system that postulates redundant systems for separation assurance in order to achieve both high levels of safety and airspace capacity. It is proposed that automated separation assurance be introduced operationally in several steps, each step reducing controller workload further while increasing airspace capacity. A fast time simulation was used to determine performance statistics of the algorithm at up to 3 times current traffic levels.

Erzberger, H.↗

Inferred Lunar Boulder Distributions at Decimeter Scales

Block size distributions of impact deposits on the Moon are diagnostic of the impact process and environmental effects, such as target lithology and weathering. Block size distributions are also important factors in trafficability, habitability, and possibly the identification of indigenous resources. Lunar block sizes have been investigated for many years for many purposes [e.g., 1-3]. An unresolved issue is the extent to which lunar block size distributions can be extrapolated to scales smaller than limits of resolution of direct measurement. This would seem to be a straightforward statistical application, but it is complicated by two issues. First, the cumulative size frequency distribution of observable boulders rolls over due to resolution limitations at the small end. Second, statistical regression provides the best fit only around the centroid of the data [4]. Confidence and prediction limits splay away from the best fit at the endpoints resulting in inferences in the boulder density at the CPR scale that can differ by many orders of magnitude [4]. These issues were originally investigated by Cintala and McBride [2] using Surveyor data. The objective of this study was to determine whether the measured block size distributions from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera - Narrow Angle Camera (LROC-NAC) images (m-scale resolution) can be used to infer the block size distribution at length scales comparable to Mini-RF Circular Polarization Ratio (CPR) scales, nominally taken as 10 cm. This would set the stage for assessing correlations of inferred block size distributions with CPR returns [6].

Baloga, S. M.↗