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At least 847 records · Page 47

Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates

Estimates of aviation effective radiative forcing (ERF) indicate that contrail cirrus is currently its largest contributor, although with a substantial associated uncertainty of ∼ 70 %. Here, we implement the contrail parameterisation developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM), allowing us to compare, for the first time, the impact of key features of the host climate model on contrail cirrus ERF. We find that differences in background humidity between the models result in the UM-simulated contrail fractions being 2 to 3 times larger than in CAM. Additionally, the models show contrasting responses in overall global cloud fraction, with contrails increasing the total cloud fraction in the UM and decreasing it in CAM. Differences in the complexity of the cloud microphysics schemes lead to significant differences in simulated changes to cloud ice water content due to aviation. After compensating for the unrealistically low contrail optical depth in the UM, we estimate the 2018 contrail cirrus ERF to be 40.8 mW m−2 in the UM, compared to 60.1 mW m−2 in CAM. These values highlight the substantial uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to differences in microphysics and radiation schemes between the two models. We also find a factor-of-8 uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to existing uncertainty in contrail cirrus optical depth. Future research should focus on better representing microphysical and radiative contrail characteristics in climate models and on improved observational constraints.

Zhang, Weiyu [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs

Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. Here, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – CESM1(WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1% of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation overcompensates sea ice, while the second undercompensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Modeling of a Solar-To-Hydrogen Flexible High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Plant

Sustainble hydrogen production for use as a renewable combustible fuel and clean chemical feedstock is an important objective as the world moves towards a renewable energy future. High temperature steam electrolysis is a promising hydrogen production technology due to its reduced electric input that is offset by heat input into steam generation and steam superheating. An option to provide this heat is to use concentrating solar thermal technology that can sustainably provide heat input while renewable electricity is used for the electrolysis reaction. In this work, a solar-to-hydrogen high temperature steam electrolysis plant is designed and dynamically modeled, showing continuous hydrogen production by utilizing supplemental heating and efficient recuperative heating from the electrolysis product streams. Through this design, over 90% of the required heat input for the process can by met by a combination of solar and recuperative heat. Additionally, the plant can flexibility operate by ramping down hydrogen production and through flexible heat integration, which intelligently integrates solar heat based on solar conditions. Smooth operation with flexible hydrogen production is demonstrated which decreases electrical input during on-peak grid times and also decreases the total supplemental heat load over the course of a day from 26.1% to 24.5%. In addition, by using flexible heat integration, the plant can increase its solar heat usage by 4.1% relative to a base case. Both options for flexibility show efficient use of solar thermal energy to sustainably and continuously produce hydrogen.

Immonen, Jake (ORCID:0000000341231625)↗

Summary Paper: An Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis

This paper summarizes the prior analysis, key findings, and recommendations from the published report titled “Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis” [1]. Globally, the growing demand for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies, primarily for electricity generation plants has been met with supply chains primarily composed of plentiful commodity materials such as steel, aluminum, and glass. Often the commodity materials can be sourced in the domestic market where power plant will be constructed. Although specialty components are required for CSP solar fields —including mirror panels used for heliostat applications—these specialty components constitute about 30-50% of total system installed costs [2]. Only a few companies and countries, including the United States, have developed the capacity to supply such specialty components. The U.S. heliostat supply chain at present is comprised of few companies (e.g., CSP developers), component suppliers, and is its infancy. By 2035, with current and aggressive solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity expansions, there is the potential for 500,000–1,500,000 direct and indirect jobs in the areas of manufacturing, installation and development, and operations and maintenance (O&M) [3]. Utilizing the CSP capacity estimations the recent NREL report [4], the construction of 39 gigawatts (GW) of CSP (assuming mainly power tower) in the U.S. could lead to approximately 195,000 manufacturing, construction, and O&M jobs. This does not include the longer-term jobs and economic impact (e.g., taxes from plant operations staff) from operating the plants once constructed. It is recommended that further CSP component and system supply chain analysis and modelling be undertaken.

Kurup, Parthiv (ORCID:0000000217356703)↗

Human Factors Design for Particle Accelerator Control Room Interfaces

Fermilab, the birthplace of many scientific discoveries in physics and particle accelerator sciences, is in the midst of a widescale modernization effort. The Accelerator Control Operations Research Network (ACORN project’s goal is to modernize the accelerator control system by replacing end-of-life power supplies and enhance future operations of the Fermilab accelerator complex with megawatt particle beams. Within ACORN, opportunities for process improvement concerning software development, human-system interface design, and task performance are also being considered. Human factors researchers from Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with usability experts from Fermilab, are currently investigating human-centered design improvements for the accelerator control system. For example, substantial tribal knowledge and memory recall are required to effectively operate the accelerator system. This contributes to high cognitive workload and potential burnout of accelerator operators. Developing guidance for consistent visual and functional design enables a more intuitive interaction and relieves operators of cognitive burden. Additionally, developing more intuitive and integrated interfaces can also lead to improved accelerator efficacy by empowering operators with greater understanding and control of the systems. The challenge in developing such interfaces is in designing for a wide variety of user goals, system specifications, and level of experience in users. The challenges need to be met while e also considering the maintainability of the control system. The purpose of this paper is to detail the human factors process and design within the ACORN project, describe results gathered thus far, and discuss the larger implications for this work.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Baltimore MD↗

Screening and Brief Interventions for Alcohol Use During Pregnancy: Practices Among US Primary Care Clinicians, DocStyles 2019

Alcohol use during pregnancy can cause birth defects and developmental disabilities. From 2018 through 2020, 13.5% of pregnant women reported current drinking. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends evidence-based tools (eg, AUDIT-C and SASQ) for implementing screening and brief interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use among adults, including pregnant people, for whom any alcohol use is considered excessive. We used DocStyles 2019 data to conduct a cross-sectional analysis to examine current screening and brief intervention practices that primary care clinicians conduct among pregnant patients; clinicians’ confidence levels in conducting screening, brief interventions, and referral to treatment; and the documentation of brief interventions in the medical record. A total of 1,500 US adult medicine clinicians completed the entire survey. Among the respondents who conduct screening (N = 1,373) and brief interventions (N = 1,357) in their practice, nearly all reported implementing screening (94.6%) and brief interventions (94.9%) with their pregnant patients for alcohol use, but fewer than half felt confident about conducting their screening practices (46.5%). Two-thirds (64%) reported using a tool that met the criteria recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Over half documented brief interventions in electronic health record notes (51.7%) or designated space (50.7%). Pregnancy presents a unique opportunity for clinicians to incorporate screening into routine obstetric care and encourage behavior change among patients. Most providers reported always screening their pregnant patients for alcohol use, but fewer used evidence-based USPSTF-recommended screening tools. Increased clinician confidence in screening and brief intervention, the use of standardized screening tools tailored to pregnant people, and maximal use of electronic health record technology may enhance the benefits of their application to alcohol use, which ultimately can reduce adverse outcomes associated with alcohol use during pregnancy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advancing Building Performance: Field Results of Thin-Glass Triple-Pane Window Demonstrations

To meet California and the nation's ambitious energy targets, energy use in the building sector must drop dramatically. Windows continue to be the lowest thermally performing envelope system in the nation's buildings, resulting in poor overall envelope performance and potential impacts to human health and comfort. Current best practice new window performance is typically met by double-pane low-solar-gain glazing. Thin-glass triple-pane windows are a highly promising next step forward in performance and have been deployed in two California multi-family sites to quantify field performance and building energy savings. The technology assessed offers the performance benefits of traditional triple-pane but with little increase in weight or cost, enabling incremental costs competitive with alternative energy reduction solutions for the building envelope. This paper covers a detailed investigation into the demonstration project and measured performance benefits of the windows after a full year of data collection.

Hart, Robert↗

Combining Generative Modeling and Advanced Control for Building Scenario Generation

Buildings make up a large portion of energy consumption in the U.S. today. Understanding their energy consumption patterns can improve their efficiency, but requires detailed models that rely on incomplete or unknown information. Previous work has shown that artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to predict missing information and even suggest upgrades to improve building efficiency. However, building upgrades may require undesirable upfront costs. Oppositely, advanced control could improve building efficiency with negligible upfront cost. To explore the tradeoffs between these two approaches, in this work we propose a workflow to compute optimal temperature setpoint schedules to minimize energy consumption and operational cost. Results show that modifying the temperature setpoints in a building using model predictive control (MPC) can effectively reduce its energy consumption and operational cost. This optimal operation cannot fully meet a desired goal. However, we show that by considering MPC in addition to component upgrades, a desired goal can be met with significantly less upfront costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

TCF Base Technology-Specific Final Report: Negative Cracked Film Lithography for PERC CdTe

NLR worked with the world's leading thin-film photovoltaic manufacturer - First Solar, an American company - to develop electrical contacting methods that improve the power conversion efficiency of First Solar's cells by 0.5% absolute. We met this milestone but contrary to our hypothesis, these performance gains are not passivation (PERC)-based. Instead, we identified another mechanism by which our micropatterned Al 2 O 3 contacts improve efficiency. Using the results of this project, we will adapt NLR's cracked film lithography intellectual property (IP) toward the application we identified, which is a new route to commercialization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Overview of the fusion nuclear science facility, a credible break-in step on the path to fusion energy

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is examined here as part of a two step program from ITER to commercial power plants. This first step is considered mandatory to establish the materials and component database in the real fusion in-service environment before proceeding to larger electricity producing facilities. The FNSF can be shown to make tremendous advances beyond ITER, toward a power plant, particularly in plasma duration and fusion nuclear environment. A moderate FNSF is studied in detail, which does not generate net electricity, but does reach the power plant blanket operating temperatures. The full poloidal Dual Coolant Lead Lithium (DCLL) blanket is chosen, with alternates being the Helium Cooled Lead Lithium (HCLL) and Helium Cooled Ceramic Breeder/Pebble Bed (HCCB/PB). Several power plant relevant choices are made in order to follow the philosophy of targeted technologies. Any fusion core component must be qualified by fusion relevant neutron testing and highly integrated non-nuclear testing before it can be installed on the FNSF in order to avoid the high probability of constant failures in a plasma-vacuum system. A range of missions for the FNSF, or any fusion nuclear facility on the path toward fusion power plants, are established and characterized by several metrics. A conservative physics strategy is pursued to accommodate the transition to ultra-long plasma pulses, and parameters are chosen to represent the power plant regime to the extent possible. An operating space is identified, and from this, one point is chosen for further detailed analysis, with R = 4.8 m, a = 1.2 m, IP = 7.9 MA, BT = 7.5 T, βN Gr = 0.9, fBS = 0.52, q95 = 6.0, H98 ∼1.0, and Q = 4.0. The operating space is shown to be robust to parameter variations. A program is established for the FNSF to show how the missions for the facility are met, with a He/H, a DD and 5 DT phases. The facility requires ∼25 years to complete its DT operation, including 7.8 years of neutron production, and the remaining spent on inspections and maintenance. The DD phase is critical to establish the ultra-long plasma pulse lengths. The blanket testing strategy is examined, and shows that many sectors have penetrations for heating and current drive (H/CD), diagnostics, or Test Blanket Modules (TBMs). The hot cell is a critical facility element in order for the FNSF to perform its function of developing the in-service material and component database. The pre-FNSF R&D is laid out in terms of priority topics, with the FNSF phases driving the time-lines for R&D completion. A series of detailed technical assessments of the FNSF operating point are reported in this issue, showing the credibility of such a step, and more detailed emphasis on R&D items to pursue. These include nuclear analysis, thermo-mechanics and thermal-hydraulics, liquid metal thermal hydraulics, transient thermo-mechanics, tritium analysis, maintenance assessment, magnet specification and analysis, materials assessments, core and scrape-off layer (SOL)/divertor plasma examinations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Example Alternative Compliance Annual Report

This document is an example for state and alternative fuel provider fleets regulated by the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) to report how they met their annual requirements using the Alternative Compliance method.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship (CLUES) Report serves as a summary document of the land use and environmental stewardship activities occurring on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site (Desert) and the Research and Education Campus (REC) within Idaho Falls. Land and facility use planning and decisions at the INL Site are guided by a comprehensive planning process in accordance with the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Order 430.1C, “Real Property Asset Management,” which states "Establish a data-driven, risk-informed, performance-based approach to the life-cycle management of real property assets that aligns the real property portfolio with DOE mission needs; acquire, manage, positively account for, and dispose of real property assets in a safe, secure, cost-effective, and sustainable manner; and ensure the real property portfolio is appropriately sized, aligned, and in the proper condition to support efficient mission execution." Land use planning, like Campus Master Planning and 5-Year Facility Planning, provides a means for better, more sustainable use of the INL Site in a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met, including acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization and long-term stewardship. This document and all functions of INL are guided by the DOE Vision for INL and the INL Mission and builds on the baseline established in the FY 2015 CLUES Report. However, it delivers a revised structure with focus on new resource management zones, which provide organization of key management considerations and access restrictions to optimize land use and environmental stewardship. A new set of thematic Guiding Principles presented in this report provide the intent and sustainable management direction to protect the INL Site natural environment. They demonstrate that the mission and vision of DOE and INL can be realized with inclusion of first of a kind technology, private sector development, and globally recognized testing and demonstration. This CLUES Report encourages comprehensive management decision-making with additional resource discussions for sustainability, the built environment, and the ecological landscape at the INL Site. Enhanced resource considerations and trends emphasize the importance of air, land use, environmental, subsurface, and cultural resources. The INL Site supports exceptional and interdependent resources. A diversity of bat species are accommodated by culturally significant caves distributed around the Site. Big game species like elk, deer, and moose seek vegetation communities which are protected by long-term stewardship and monitoring programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Moving Zero Energy Office Buildings to the Mainstream: Establishing Design Guidelines and Energy Targets: Preprint

Office buildings represent a significant portion of the commercial sector and are ideal candidates to lead the market towards achieving zero energy or zero energy ready buildings. The variety of sizes and uses for office buildings make them challenging to determine set design guidance that can be deployed across the market. A project committee for ASHRAE’s Zero Energy - Advanced Energy Design Guide (ZE-AEDG) for small and medium office buildings , comprised of members from five major national associations with market-pull in commercial buildings, created design guidance for achieving zero energy office buildings for new construction and major retrofit. This design guidance focuses on the process, providing a pathway for both office owners and design teams to achieve zero energy status. Energy use intensity targets range from 16 kBtu/ft²·yr to 36 kBtu/ft²·yr for the different climate zones were established such that office buildings can be “zero-ready,” that is, having low energy consumption that can easily be offset with renewables, preferably on-site. The design guidance was rooted in extensive energy modeling, as well as case studies of actual office buildings that have achieved high levels of energy performance and met zero energy or zero energy ready status. A unique aspect of the zero-energy guide is that it is not compared against a baseline but focuses on achieving an absolute target. The paper presents process of creating the targets, the selection of strategies to achieve the targets, and sample case studies that show how the cost-sensitive solutions are achievable for the design community. It also presents outreach strategies to deploy market achievable zero energy measures.

buildings↗

Deep Retrofits for Multifamily: Experiences in Scaling to Zero Energy: Preprint

Zero net energy (ZNE) buildings are needed to reverse the growing trend of increasing energy consumption. But to make dramatic changes, existing buildings must be renovated at scale. In addition, the building stock must be electrified so that its energy needs could be met by renewable generation. Such aggressive goals often mean very high custom design and capital construction costs. Suitable options for comprehensive envelope retrofits can be too expensive to be practical, and electrification requires upgrades to building-level electrical infrastructure. This paper is a case study of eight projects—primarily multifamily residential—that strived for zero-energy, all-electric retrofits. The design teams were challenged to create solutions that could be replicated at scale, showing decreasing costs with broader adoption. Key technologies considered in designing cost-effective, scalable solutions include industrialized prefabricated retrofit components, modular HVAC solutions, and innovative domestic hot water systems. We trace the progress toward the goals set and examine the choices made by the teams as they encountered technical, logistical, and cost barriers. We also discuss financial challenges for multifamily retrofits, provide guidance for incentives, and examine procurement processes for design services and technologies.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗