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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Ground testing of the Li-ion batteries in support of JPL's 2003 Mars Exploration Rover Mission

In early 2004, JPL successfully landed two Rovers, named Spirit and Opportunity, on the surface of Mars after traveling > 300 million miles over a 6-7 month period. In order to operate for extended duration on the surface of Mars, both Rovers are equipped with rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries, which were designed to aid in the launch, correct anomalies during cruise, and support surface operations in conjunction with a triple-junction deployable solar arrays. The requirements of the Lithium-ion battery include the ability to provide power at least 90 sols on the surface of Mars, operate over a wide temperature range (-20(deg)C to +4O(deg)C), withstand long storage periods (e.g., cruise period), operate in an inverted position, and support high currents (e.g., firing pyro events). In order to determine the viability of meeting these requirements, ground testing was performed on a Rover Battery Assembly Unit (RBAU), consisting of two 8-cell 8 Ah lithium-ion batteries connected in parallel. The RBAU upon which the performance testing was performed is nearly identical to the batteries incorporated into the two Rovers currently on Mars. The testing performed includes, (a) performing initial characterization tests (discharge capacity at different temperatures), (b) simulating the launch conditions, (c) simulating the cruise phase conditions (including trajectory corrections), (d) simulating the entry, decent, and landing pulse load profile (if required to support the pyros) (e) simulating the Mars surface operation mission simulation conditions, as well as, (f) assessing performance capacity loss and impedance characteristics as a function of temperature and life. As will be discussed, the lithium-ion batteries (fabricated by LithiodYardney, Inc.) were demonstrated to far exceed the requirements defined by the mission, and are projected to support an extended mission (> 2 years) with margin to spare.

Li-ion batteries↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Newly reconstructed Arctic surface air temperatures for 1979–2021 with deep learning method

A precise Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) dataset, that is regularly updated, has more complete spatial and temporal coverage, and is based on instrumental observations, is critically important for timely monitoring and improving understanding of the rapid change in the Arctic climate. In this study, a new monthly gridded Arctic SAT dataset dated back to 1979 was reconstructed with a deep learning method by combining surface air temperatures from multiple data sources. The source data include the observations from land station of GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network), ICOADS (International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) over the oceans, drifting ice station of Russian NP (North Pole), and buoys of IABP (International Arctic Buoy Programme). The last two are crucial for improving the representation of the in-situ observed temperatures within the Arctic. The newly reconstructed dataset includes monthly Arctic SAT beginning in 1979 and daily Arctic SAT beginning in 2011. This dataset would represent a new improvement in developing observational temperature datasets and can be used for a variety of applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Use of remote sensing for land use policy formulation

Research projects described include: (1) identifying coniferous forest types in Michigan using LANDSAT imagery; (2) investigating synoptic temperature patterns in Michigan as determined via GOES and HCMM thermal imagery; (3) land surface change detection using satellite data and a geographic data base; (4) determining soil map unit composition by electronic scanning densitometry; and (5) delimiting areas of virus infection in vineyards and blueberry fields in southwestern and western Michigan. Contractual activities involve important farmlands inventory, changes in aquatic vegetation in Saginaw Bay, digitized soil association map of Michigan, and aerial photography for hybrid-poplar research. On-going projects are also being conducted in Jamaica, Honduras, the Dominican Republic and Kenya.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the correlation of indices of vegetation and surface temperature over south-eastern Australia

Relationships between radiant surface temperature and vegetation indices for scenes with equal areas of forest and agricultural land use were studied using a Landsat TM scene during spring and an NOAA AVHRR scene during summer. The relationships between T sub R and the normalized difference (ND) index of vegetation for agricultural land use were different from those for forests. At the same T sub R, the forest had lower near infrared reflectance. This caused the ND of forests to fall below the T sub R/ND relationships formed by agricultural land use. This difference between forest and agricultural land use did not exist when visible reflectance was used as the index of vegetation.

Smith, R. C. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Understanding land surface evapotranspiration with satellite multispectral measurements

Quantitative use of remote multispectral measurements to study and map land surface evapotranspiration has been a challenging issue for the past 20 years. Past work is reviewed against process physics. A simple two-layer combination-type model is used which is applicable to both vegetation and bare soil. The theoretic analysis is done to show which land surface properties are implicitly defined by such evaporation models and to assess whether they are measurable as a matter of principle. Conceptual implications of the spatial correlation of land surface properties, as observed by means of remote multispectral measurements, are illustrated with results of work done in arid zones. A normalization of spatial variability of land surface evaporation is proposed by defining a location-dependent potential evaporation and surface temperature range. Examples of the application of remote based estimates of evaporation to hydrological modeling studies in Egypt and Argentina are presented.

Menenti, M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Simulated retrieval of land surface parameters using multichannel satellite microwave radiometry

The current global change research emphasis on understanding water and energy fluxes at the land-atmosphere interface provided renewed interest in using passive microwave satellite data for land studies. Radiative transfer models of microwave emission and scattering in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere column, though still in the process of development, can be used to estimate the accuracies with which land surface parameters can be derived from satellite data. These parameters include surface soil moisture, surface temperature, vegetation water content, and atmospheric water content. A microwave radiative transfer model is used to develop linear and nonlinear versions of a multichannel retrieval algorithm to simulate retrievals of the surface and atmospheric parameters. These simulations include the effect of additive noise, and examine the effects of nonlinearities in the radiative transfer models. However, effects of spatial heterogeneity are not considered. Satellite data to which the retrieval algorithms may be applied include the SSMR and SSM/I, and in future will include the Multifrequency Imaging Microwave Radiometer (MIMR) to be launched as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite provided data from 1978 to 1987 at five microwave frequencies between 6.6 and 37 GHz. The series of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments launched on the DMSP satellites provide data from 1987 to the present at four frequencies between 19.35 and 8.5 GHz. Spatial resolutions of the data range from approximately 12 to 120 km depending on the frequency. Examples using data from these sensors are shown to indicate the results of applying retrieval algorithms based on model simulations to real data.

Njoku, Eni G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗
NASA NTRS2024

An Airborne Multi-Frequency Microwave Analysis of Precipitation within Two Winter Cyclones

NASA’s Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign gathered data using “satellite-simulating” (albeit with higher-resolution data than satellites currently provide) and in situ aircraft to study snowstorms, with an emphasis on banding. This study used three IMPACTS microwave instruments—two passive and one active—chosen for their sensitivity to precipitation microphysics. The 10–37-GHz passive frequencies were well suited for detecting light precipitation and differentiating rain intensities over water. The 85–183-GHz frequencies were more sensitive to cloud ice, with higher cloud tops manifesting as lower brightness temperatures, but this did not necessarily correspond well to near-surface precipitation. Over land, retrieving precipitation information from radiometer data is more difficult, requiring increased reliance on radar to assess storm structure. A dual-frequency ratio (DFR) derived from the radar’s Ku- and Ka-band frequencies provided greater insight into storm microphysics than reflectivity alone. Areas likely to contain mixed-phase precipitation (often the melting layer/bright band) generally had the highest DFR, and high-altitude regions likely to contain ice usually had the lowest DFR. The DFR of rain columns increased toward the ground, and snowbands appeared as high-DFR anomalies.

Amanda Richter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methodology to determine the coupling of continental clouds with surface and boundary layer height under cloudy conditions from lidar and meteorological data

Abstract. The states of coupling between clouds and surface or boundary layer have been investigated much more extensively for marine stratocumulus clouds than for continental low clouds, partly due to more complex thermodynamic structures over land. A manifestation is a lack of robust remote sensing methods to identify coupled and decoupled clouds over land. Following the idea for determining cloud coupling over the ocean, we have generalized the concept of coupling and decoupling to low clouds over land, based on potential temperature profiles. Furthermore, by using ample measurements from lidar and a suite of surface meteorological instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site from 1998 to 2019, we have developed a method to simultaneously retrieve the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) and coupled states under cloudy conditions during the daytime. The new lidar-based method relies on the PBLH, the lifted condensation level, and the cloud base to diagnose the cloud coupling. The coupled states derived from this method are highly consistent with those derived from radiosondes. Retrieving the PBLH under cloudy conditions, which has been a persistent problem in lidar remote sensing, is resolved in this study. Our method can lead to high-quality retrievals of the PBLH under cloudy conditions and the determination of cloud coupling states. With the new method, we find that coupled clouds are sensitive to changes in the PBL with a strong diurnal cycle, whereas decoupled clouds and the PBL are weakly related. Since coupled and decoupled clouds have distinct features, our new method offers an advanced tool to separately investigate them in climate systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial abundances and carbon use under ambient temperature or experimental warming in a southern boreal peatland

Abstract Organic peat soils occupy relatively little of the global land surface area but store vast amounts of soil carbon in northern latitudes where climate is warming at a rapid pace. Warming may result in strong positive feedbacks of carbon loss and global climate change driven by microbial processes if warming alters the balance between primary productivity and decomposition. To elucidate effects of warming on the microbial communities mediating peat carbon dynamics, we explored the abundance of broad microbial groups and their source of carbon (i.e. old carbon versus more recently fixed photosynthate) using microbial lipid analysis (δ 13 C PLFA) of peat samples under ambient temperatures and before/after initiation of experimental peat warming (+ 2.25, + 4.5, + 6.75, and + 9 °C). This analysis occurred over a profile to 2 m depth in an undrained, ombrotrophic peat bog in northern Minnesota. We found that the total microbial biomass and individual indicator lipid abundances were stratified by depth and strongly correlated to temperature under ambient conditions. However, under experimental warming, statistically significant effects of temperature on the microbial community were sporadic and inconsistent. For example, 3 months after experimental warming the relative abundance of Gram-negative bacterial indicators across depth combined and > 50 cm depth and Gram-positive bacterial indicators at 20–50 cm depth showed significant positive relationships to temperature. At that same timepoint, however, the relative abundance of Actinobacterial indicators across depth showed a significant negative relationship to temperature. After 10 months of experimental warming, the relative abundance of fungal biomarkers was positively related to temperature in all depths combined, and the absolute abundance of anaerobic bacteria declined with increasing temperature in the 20–50 cm depth interval. The lack of observed response in the broader microbial community may suggest that at least initially, microbial community structure with peat depth in these peatlands is driven more by bulk density and soil water content than temperature. Alternatively, the lack of broad microbial community response may simply represent a lag period, with more change to come in the future. The long-term trajectory of microbial response to warming in this ecosystem then could either be direct, after this initial lag time, or indirect through other physical or biogeochemical changes in the peat profile. These initial results provide an important baseline against which to measure long-term microbial community and carbon-cycling responses to warming and elevated CO 2 .

Felice, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1984

Testing the radiometric stability of HCMM thermal infrared data

A study conducted to test the radiometric stability of thermal infrared (TIR) data from the heat-capacity mapping mission (HCMM) satellites is considered. The radiance values associated with various land use and cover types in a regional study area centered on Washington, D.C. are examined. The study shows that for three different day TIR-data sets, the relative ranking of mean thermal values associated with five Level I and three Level II land-use/land-cover categories remains constant over time. Although HCMM predicted temperatures show variability up to 5 C from ground observed temperatures, the thermal measurements recorded by the satellite are fairly stable as indicators of surface temperature. A method for combining HCMM thermal data and Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to improve the classification of Level I land-cover categories, and in particular the separability of urban and nonurban areas is described. A merged HCMM-MSS data set is found to yield the best results in terms of thematic-map accuracy.

Witt, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature, Humidity, and Time-Lapse Video Data from the East River Watershed, Water Year 2024

A new version of this dataset is available at doi:10.15485/3001338 and is the first citation in the 'Related References' section. It is expands on this dataset by appending another water year of data collection and additional logger sites.This dataset contains time-lapse imagery and distributed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and soil temperature across the East River basin from 3 October 2023 to 12 August 2024. Instruments were deployed at 14 sites as part of the DOE Grant: Seasonal Cycles Unravel Mysteries of Missing Mountain Water organized by Jessica Lundquist (University of Washington), Rosemary Carroll (Desert Research Institute), and Ethan Gutmann (National Center for Atmospheric Research). The data are published to support studies of surface climate or hydrologic processes in complex terrain. Measurements were collected with low-cost data loggers installed 2 m high on evergreen trees or buried just below the soil surface. Time-lapse cameras were deployed at three sites. Imagery from sites AP BONUS and AP5 provides insight into large-scale seasonal snow cover variability. Imagery from site EL2 shows smaller-scale snow patterns across a nearby meadow.Dataset files are organized by site and variable (air measurements, ground measurements, or time-lapse video). Air and ground measurements are packaged in LoggerData.zip, and time-lapse imagery is compiled into short videos stored in TimelapseVideos.zip. File-level metadata contains details for each file included in the dataset. A data dictionary provides units and descriptions for column or row names in all files. The locations metadata file describes site characteristics, locations, and associated GPS methods.Dataset update 2025-03-03: Resolved header and datetime formatting inconsistencies within LoggerData.zip files KP1_Air, KP3_Air, KP3_Ground, KP6_Ground, AP3_Ground, AP4_Air, and AP6_Air.Dataset update 2025-11-18: Modified abstract and related references sections to include new version of dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature, Humidity, and Time-Lapse Video Data from the East River Watershed, Water Years 2024 and 2025

This dataset contains time-lapse imagery and distributed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and soil temperature across the East River basin from 3 October 2023 to 8 August 2025. Instruments were deployed at 19 sites as part of the DOE Grant: Seasonal Cycles Unravel Mysteries of Missing Mountain Water organized by Jessica Lundquist (University of Washington), Rosemary Carroll (Desert Research Institute), and Ethan Gutmann (National Center for Atmospheric Research). The data are published to support studies of surface climate or hydrologic processes in complex terrain. Measurements were collected with low-cost data loggers installed 2 m high on evergreen trees or buried just below the soil surface. Time-lapse cameras were deployed at three sites. Imagery from sites AP BONUS and AP5 (Avery Picnic) provides insight into large-scale seasonal snow cover variability. Imagery from site EL2 (Emerald Lake) shows smaller-scale snow patterns across a nearby meadow. Dataset files are organized by site and variable (air measurements, ground measurements, or time-lapse video). Air and ground measurements are packaged in LoggerData.zip, and time-lapse imagery is compiled into short videos stored in TimelapseVideos.zip. File-level metadata contains details for each file included in the dataset. A data dictionary provides units and descriptions for column or row names in all files. The locations metadata file describes site characteristics, locations, and associated GPS methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Parameterization of Sub-grid Topographical Effects on Solar Radiation in the E3SM Land Model (Version 1.0): Implementation and Evaluation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. A few stand-alone regional and global atmospheric models have included parameterizations for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. However, nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) use a plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer scheme that assumes the terrain is flat. In this study, we incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic (TOP) parameterization in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) version 1.0 to quantify the effects of sub-grid topography on solar radiation flux, including the shadow effects and multi-scattering between adjacent terrain. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to evaluate the performance of ELM. We studied the role of sub-grid topography by performing ELM simulations with the PP and TOP schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Additional ELM simulations were performed at multiple spatial resolutions to investigate the role of spatial scale on sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. When compared to MODIS data, incorporating the sub-grid topographic effects overall reduces the biases of ELM in simulating surface energy balance, snow cover and surface temperature especially in the high-elevation and snow-cover regions over the TP. Topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the TP. The absolute differences in surface energy fluxes for net solar radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux between TOP and PP exceed 20 W/m 2 , 10 W/m 2 , and 5 W/m 2 , respectively. The differences in land surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface temperature between TOP and PP exceed 0.1, 20%, and 1K, respectively. The magnitude of the sub-grid topographic effects is dependent on seasons and elevations, and is also sensitive to the spatial scales. Although the sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation are more significant with more spatial details at finer spatial scales, they cannot be simply neglected at coarse spatial scales. The inclusion of sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation parameterization in ELM will contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of the surface topography on terrestrial processes over complex terrain.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Update of the Ground Testing of the Li-ion Batteries in Support of JPL's 2003 Mars Exploration Rover Mission

In early 2004, JPL successfully landed two Rovers, named Spirit and Opportunity, on the surface of Mars after traveling > 300 million miles over a 6-7 month period. In order to operate for extended duration (>9 months), both Rovers are equipped with rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries, which have enabled operation for over 854 and 834 Sols of operation, respectively, to date. Given that the batteries were required to support the mission for 90 Sols of operation by design, it is significant that the batteries have demonstrated over a nine fold increase in life over mission objectives. In addition to supporting the surface operations in conjunction with a triple-junction deployable solar arrays, the batteries were designed to aid in the launch and the EDL pyros, and allow for anomalies during cruise. In summary, the requirements of the Lithium-ion battery include the ability to provide power at least 90 sols on the surface of Mars, operate over a wide temperature range (-20 C to +30 C), withstand long storage periods (e.g., cruise period), operate in an inverted orientation, and support high current pulses (e.g., firing pyro events). In order to determine the viability of meeting these requirements, ground testing was performed on a Rover Battery Assembly Unit (RBAU), consisting of two 8-cell 10 Ah lithium-ion batteries connected in parallel. The RBAU upon which the performance testing was performed is nearly identical to the batteries incorporated into the two Rovers currently on Mars. The testing includes, (a) performing initial characterization tests (discharge capacity at different temperatures), (b) simulating the launch conditions, (c) simulating the cruise phase conditions (including trajectory correction maneuvers), (d) simulating the entry, decent, and landing (EDL) pulse load profile (required to support the pyros) (e) simulating the Mars surface operation mission simulation conditions, as well as, (f) assessing capacity loss and impedance characteristics as a function of temperature and life. This paper provides further detail to previously reported results1 of the RBAU testing program, especially with regard to the life characteristics. To date, the lithium-ion batteries (fabricated by Lithion/Yardney, Inc.) have been demonstrated to far exceed the requirements defined by the mission, both on Mars and on the ground, and are projected to support an extended mission (> 4 years).

Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) Mission↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗