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NASA NTRS2021

Evaluating Observational Constraints on Intermodel Spread in Cloud, Temperature, and Humidity Feedbacks

Uncertainty in climate feedbacks is the primary source of the spread in projected surface temperature responses to anthropogenic forcing. Cloud feedback persistently appears as the main source of disagreement in future projections while the combined lapse-rate plus water vapor (LR+WV) feedback is a smaller (30%), but non-trivial source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Here we attempt to observationally constrain the feedbacks in an effort to reduce the irintermodel uncertainties. The observed interannual variation provides a useful constraint on the long-term cloud feedback, as evidenced by the consistency of global-mean values and regional contributions to the intermodal spread on both interannual and long-term timescales. However, interannual variability does not serve to constrain the long-term LR+WV feedback spread, which we find is dominated by the varying tropical relative humidity (RH) response to interhemispheric warming differences under clear-sky conditions and the RH-fixed LR feedback under all-sky conditions

radiative feedbacks↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm/yr (6.56×10^4 cu.km/yr) to 617.1 mm/yr (6.87×10^4 cu.km/yr). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm/sq.yr with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr−2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm/sq.yr, p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm/yr. Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2021

Classifying planetary cloudiness with an updated set of MODIS Cloud Regimes

We present an updated Cloud Regime (CR) dataset based on Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6.1 cloud products, specifically joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within distinct combinations of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness ranges. The paper focuses on an edition of the CR dataset derived from our own aggregation of MODIS pixel-level cloud retrievals on an equal area grid and pre-specified 3-hour UTC intervals that spatiotemporally match International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) gridded cloud data. The other edition comes from the 1-degree daily aggregation provided by standard MODIS Level-3 data, as in previous versions of the MODIS CRs, for easier use with datasets mapped on equal angle grids. Both editions consist of 11 clusters whose centroids are nearly identical.We provide a physical interpretation of the new CRs and aspects of their climatology that have not been previously examined, such as seasonal and interannual variability of CR frequency of occurrence. We also examine the makeup and precipitation properties of the CRs assisted by independent datasets originating from active observations, and provide a first glimpse of how MODIS CRs relate to clouds as seen by ISCCP.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Interrelationships of Sea Surface Salinity, Chlorophyll-α Concentration, and Sea Surface Temperature near the Antarctic Ice Edge

Satellite data can now provide a coherent picture of sea surface salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-α concentration (Chlα), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice cover across the Southern Ocean. The availability of these data at the basin scale enables novel insight into the physical and biological processes in an area that has historically been difficult to gather in situ data from. The analysis shows large regional and interannual variability of these parameters but also strong coherence across the Southern Ocean. The covariability of the parameters near the marginal ice zone shows a generally negative relationship between SSS and Chlα (r = −0.87). This may in part be attributed to the large seasonality of the variables, but analysis of data within the spring period (from November to December) shows similarly high correlation (r = −0.81). This is the first time that a large-scale robust connection between low salinity and high phytoplankton concentration during ice melt period has been quantified. Chlorophyll-α concentration is also well correlated with SST (r = 0.79) providing a potential indicator of the strength of the temperature limitation on primary productivity in the region. The observed correlation also varied regionally due to differences in ice melt patterns during spring and summer. Overall, this study provides new insights into the physical characteristics of the Southern Ocean as observed from space. In a continually warming and freshening Southern Ocean, the relationships observed here provide a key data source for testing ocean biogeochemical models and assessing the effect of sea ice–ocean processes on primary production.

Cynthia Garcia-Eidell↗
NASA NTRS2021

Diagnosing Seasonal to Multi-decadal Phytoplankton Group Dynamics in a Highly Productive Coastal Ecosystem

The Santa Barbara Channel, CA (SBC) is a biodiverse marine ecosystem fueled largely by phytoplankton productivity, and the composition of the phytoplankton community influences the magnitude and fates of this productivity. Here, we create a 22-year monthly time series of phytoplankton biomarker pigment concentrations in the SBC by combining 12 years of high performance liquid chromatography phytoplankton pigment concentrations with bio-optical models and 10 additional years of bio-optical observations. The bio-optical models skillfully predict biomarker pigment concentrations representative of five distinct phytoplankton groups (PGs; diatoms, dinoflagellates, chlorophytes, prymnesiophytes, and picophytoplankton) and resolve seasonal responses to the annual upwelling-relaxation cycle for all PGs except the dinoflagellates. Our observations indicate that nanophytoplankton groups respond most rapidly to seasonal upwelling, followed by diatoms, and then by picophytoplankton as the water column stratifies in the summer. A Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) solution is used to relate advection of different source waters to the observed PG dynamics. The ROMS simulation results suggest that, on seasonal time scales, pronounced cross-SBC differences in PG seasonality are related to cross-SBC differences in source waters. El Niño Southern Oscillation events drive interannual variability in the upwelling response of most PGs. On decadal time scales, dinoflagellate blooms are associated with the warm phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and anomalous advection of Southern California Bight source waters into the SBC. Taken together, our results provide a novel view of phytoplankton community succession in response to seasonal upwelling by considering the dynamics of pico- and nano-phytoplankton and suggest that regional surface ocean advection plays a substantial role in driving phytoplankton composition in the SBC.

Phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗
NASA NTRS2022

Introduction to Special Collection ``The Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex in 2019/2020: Causes and Consequences"

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground-based data sets and chemistry-transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far-reaching consequences of such extremes.

Artic↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRS2022

Climatology of Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Residual Circulations and Mesopause Height Derived From SABER Observations

In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, residual circulations driven by gravity wave breaking and dissipation significantly impact constituent distribution and the height and temperature of the mesopause. The distribution of CO2 can be used as a proxy for the residual circulations. Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) CO2 volume mixing ratio (VMR) and temperature measurements from 2003 to 2020 are used to study the monthly climatology of MLT residual circulations and the mesopause height. Our analyses show that (a) mesopause height strongly correlates with the CO2 VMR vertical gradient during solstices; (b) mesopause height has a discontinuity at midlatitude in the summer hemisphere, with a lower mesopause height at mid-to-high latitudes as a result of adiabatic cooling driven by strong adiabatic upwelling; (c) the residual circulations have strong seasonal variations at mid-to-high latitudes, but they are more uniform at low latitudes; and (d) the interannual variability of the residual circulations and mesopause height is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH; 4–5 km) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH; 0.5–1 km).

SABER↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully-Coupled Climate Model

Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in AMOC by comparing a fully-coupled large ensemble, a forced-ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully-coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged towards reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well-captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind-nudging and forced-ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully-coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds towards observations also reduces the 1979-2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high-latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long-term AMOC changes.

AMOC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining the Feasibility of Detailed Decomposition of Radiative Flux Anomalies to Cloud Changes

This presentation will explore the degree to which radiative flux anomalies in the last two decades seen by CERES can be interpreted as the result of changes in particular cloud types. A study of this kind is potentially enabled by the new CERES FlxByCldTyp (FBCT) product which provides combined Terra and Aqua daytime 1°-regional gridded daily and monthly top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and associated MODIS-derived cloud properties stratified by Cloud Top Pressure (CTP) and Cloud Optical Thickness (TAU), i.e., arrays of cloud properties and radiative fluxes resolved in CTP-TAU bins. It has been shown (Sun et al. 2022) that the FBCT time series of global flux anomalies tracks closely its SSF1deg and EBAF counterparts, indicating that these three products provide fluxes of consistent stability for interannual variability studies. We are thus in position to examine whether CERES regional or global radiative fluxes anomalies and trends are driven by changes in certain elements of FBCT flux arrays corresponding to particular cloud types. Anomalies in flux array elements will in turn be investigated in terms of cloud property variations within the CTP-TAU bins where the biggest flux anomalies are encountered. We will essentially seek to obtain the relative contributions to the anomalies of binned all-sky fluxes of changes in cloud fraction within cloud types and of changes in their overcast fluxes modulated by other cloud properties. Such an analysis holds great promise of unveiling the root causes of cloud-driven changes in the planetary radiation budget of the last two decades.

cloud↗
NASA NTRS2023

Convective Impact on the Global Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Budget

Water vapor in the stratosphere is primarily controlled by temperatures in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, the direct impact of deep convection on the global lower stratospheric water vapor budget is still an actively debated issue. Two complementary modeling approaches are used to investigate the convective impact in boreal winter and summer. Convective influence is diagnosed by tracing trajectories through convective cloud top altitude fields derived from global rainfall and brightness temperature data. Backward trajectory model simulations coupled with a detailed treatment of cloud microphysical processes indicate that convection moistens the global lower stratosphere by approximately 0.3 ppmv in boreal winter and summer 2010. The diurnal peak in convection is responsible for about half of the total convective moistening during winter and nearly all of the convective moistening during summer. Deep convective clouds overshooting the tropopause have relatively minor effect on global lower stratospheric water vapor. A forward trajectory model coupled with a simplified cloud module is used to estimate the relative magnitude of the interannual variability of the convective impact. Combining the results from the two models, we find that the convective impact on the global lower stratospheric water vapor during 2006-2016 is approximately 0.3 ppmv with year-to-year variations of up to 0.1 ppmv. An important mechanism of convective hydration of the lower stratosphere is via the detrainment of saturated air and ice into the tropical uppermost troposphere and the subsequent upward transport of some of these moist air parcels across relatively warm and subsaturated tropopause.

CONVECTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine learning based noise reduction for satellite products: application to solar-induced fluorescence retrievals using simulated and real data

In the past two decades, global satellite measurements of terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) have been used widely for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants. However, SIF retrievals are inherently noisy due to the relatively small SIF spectral signature in comparison with observational noise. In this work, we examine how a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network can be used to reduce noise and other artifacts in satellite level 2 (L2) products. We first apply the approach in a controlled environment in which radiance spectra are simulated with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model for different scenarios including various SIF values that are known. Various levels of noise can be added to the simulated spectra. Resulting noisy and noise-reduced SIF retrievals are compared with the true values to assess performance. We then apply the noise reduction approach to real SIF derived from instruments flying on meteorological satellites. The results are evaluated by comparing SIF retrievals from different platforms with each other and with other independent data sets, showing enhanced capability to capture seasonal and interannual variability in SIF.

Chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Size Distribution Assumption on PM2.5 Simulation

Aerosol particles, especially those with diameter that is smaller than 2.5um, i.e. PM2.5, have detrimental impact on public health. As a regulated criteria air pollutant, PM2.5 is monitored by ground networks using various instruments. At the same time aerosol assimilation modeling system is developed to simulate the aerosol distribution with continuous global coverage. In this study we compared the PM2.5 simulated by NASA’s MERRA-2 modeling system with the measurements made at US Embassy sites around the globe on diurnal cycle, monthly average, and interannual variabilities. We focused the comparison in the places that are significantly impacted by the desert dust. Simulations based on both aerodynamic and geometric diameters are compared with available measurements. Aerodynamic diameter assumption shows better model-observation agreements over several dust belt stations.

Qian Tan↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Mars Atmosphere Water Ice Aerosol Climatology by MRO/CRISM: 5 Mars Years of Observations

We use near-infrared spectra returned from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to provide retrievals of the column-integrated optical depth of water ice aerosols for more than 5 Martian years between Mars Year (MY) 28 at Ls = 112° (27 September 2006) and MY 33 at Ls = 213° (30 August 2016). We have developed a radiative transfer model for this purpose that retrieves aerosol opacity from the water ice aerosol feature near 3.3 μm using CRISM hyperspectral observations for the first time. The resulting retrievals well depict the main features in the water ice aerosol climatology with repeatable patterns every Martian year. The aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is observed between 10°S and 30°N, with peak optical depth around Ls = 90°. Apart from the global dust storm during MY 28, modest interannual variability in the water ice aerosol optical depth is observed in the ACB. The north polar hood is observed at latitudes poleward of 45°N throughout northern spring and summer seasons and reappears in northern winter. The south polar hood is observed in early to mid-southern autumn, reaching latitudes around 60°S, and re-emerging during southern winter between 45°S and 60°S. A lack of water ice aerosols is repeatedly seen in the southern hemisphere throughout southern spring and summer. High optical depth in the ACB is observed over the volcanoes of Olympus Mons, Elysium, and the Tharsis bulge, as well as over Hellas Basin.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications of MERRA-2 data for avian migration, biomass burning, and dusty atmospheric rivers

Three different applications of MERRA-2 data are presented. 1) Using radar data, we introduced a new concept for spatial patterns of bird migration across the contiguous U.S. This approach allowed us to use MERRA-2 data and learn that remote forcing in the tropical Pacific—through a chain of processes including atmospheric Rossby wave trains— controls the climatic conditions, associated with bird migration in North America. 2) We showed that emissions from biomass burning in the Congo Basin are partly controlled by the low-level winds, which are in turn associated with the intensity of the subtropical high in the Indian Ocean. Using back-trajectory analysis, we found that these emissions combined with their transport mechanism explain the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa. 3) Our analysis showed that atmospheric rivers in the Middle East contribute to both heavy flood and dust transport within their corridor. We also found that warm advection and rain-on-snow effect of dusty atmospheric rivers further enhance the chance of flood through rapid snowmelt processes.

Amin Dezfuli↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Examination of Autumn Southern Polar Ozone Tendencies and the Residual Circulation in MERRA-2 Products

Changes in lower stratospheric ozone caused by dynamical transport can be difficult to characterize and thus are sometimes difficult to distinguish from chemical losses. Correlations between ozone changes and various dynamical proxies (e.g., the eddy heat flux) from year to year can be of interest, but they do little in themselves to explain the ozone transport mechanisms behind such correlations. In this study, we use products from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) to calculate the ozone mass flux, integrating it in space and time over the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric Southern polar cap during periods when little chemical loss is expected. The ozone mass flux is expressed in terms of components of the residual circulation of the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM, i.e., 𝑣𝑣̅ ∗and 𝑤𝑤(∗) as well as eddy mixing terms. We relate these terms to the local ozone mass tendency ("#! "$ ), similarly integrated, and we find that the interannual variability of the ozone changes are strongly related to the residual meridional circulation and the meridional eddy mixing terms. These directly calculated dynamical transport terms provide clearer ozone proxies. Removing these advective terms from a long-term ozone time series can more effectively reveal ozone variations and long-term trends, specifically those caused by photochemical production and losses (e.g., human-produced ozone depletion).

Ozone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications of MERRA-2 Data for Avian Migration, Biomass Burning, and Dusty Atmospheric Rivers

Three different applications of MERRA-2 data are presented. 1) Using radar data, we introduced a new concept for spatial patterns of bird migration across the contiguous U.S. This approach allowed us to use MERRA-2 data and learn that remote forcing in the tropical Pacific—through a chain of processes including atmospheric Rossby wave trains— controls the climatic conditions, associated with bird migration in North America. 2) We showed that emissions from biomass burning in the Congo Basin are partly controlled by the low-level winds, which are in turn associated with the intensity of the subtropical high in the Indian Ocean. Using back-trajectory analysis, we found that these emissions combined with their transport mechanism explain the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa. 3) Our analysis showed that atmospheric rivers in the Middle East contribute to both heavy flood and dust transport within their corridor. We also found that warm advection and rain-on-snow effect of dusty atmospheric rivers further enhance the chance of flood through rapid snowmelt processes.

Amin Dezfuli↗