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NASA NTRS2021

Land Surface Modeling Over the Dry Chaco: The Impact of Model Structures, and Soil, Vegetation and Land Cover Parameters

In this study, we tested the impact of a revised set of soil, vegetation and land cover parameters on the performance of three different state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The impact of this revision was tested over the South American Dry Chaco, an ecoregion characterized by deforestation and forest degradation since the 1980s. Most large-scale LSMs may lack the ability to correctly represent the ongoing deforestation processes in this region, because most LSMs use climatological vegetation indices and static land cover information. The default LIS parameters were revised with improved soil parameters, satellite-based interannually varying vegetation indices (leaf area index and green vegetation fraction) instead of climatological vegetation indices, and yearly land cover information instead of static land cover. A relative comparison in terms of water budget components and “efficiency space” for various baseline and revised experiments showed that large regional and long-term differences in the simulated water budget partitioning relate to different LSM structures, whereas smaller local differences resulted from updated soil, vegetation and land cover parameters. Furthermore, the different LSM structures redistributed water differently in response to these parameter updates. A time-series comparison of the simulations to independent satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration and brightness temperature (Tb) showed that no LSM setup significantly outperformed another for the entire region and that not all LSM simulations improved with updated parameter values. However, the revised soil parameters generally reduced the bias between simulated surface soil moisture and pixel-scale in situ observations and the bias between simulated Tb and regional Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations. Our results suggest that the different hydrological responses of various LSMs to vegetation changes may need further attention to gain benefits from vegetation data assimilation.

Michiel Maertens↗

NASA NTRS2021

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth's water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation in radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering, and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May–September, 2016/17) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppress convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

clouds↗

NASA NTRS2021

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in Eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth’s water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation of radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May-September, 2016-2017) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having a large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppresses convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

Tianmeng Chen↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sensitivity studies of nighttime top-of-atmosphere radiances from artificial light sources using a 3-D radiative transfer model for nighttime aerosol retrievals

By accounting for surface-based light source emissions and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) downward lunar fluxes, we adapted the spherical harmonics discrete ordinate method (SHDOM) 3-dimensional (3-D) radiative transfer model (RTM) to simulate nighttime 3-D TOA radiances as observed from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) on board the Suomi-NPP satellite platform. Used previously for daytime 3-D applications, these new SHDOM enhancements allow for the study of the impacts of various observing conditions and aerosol properties on simulated VIIRS-DNB TOA radiances. Observations over Dakar, Senegal, selected for its bright city lights and a large range of aerosol optical depth (AOD), were investigated for potential applications and opportunities for using observed radiances containing VIIRS-DNB “bright pixels” from artificial light sources to conduct aerosol retrievals. We found that using the standard deviation (SD) of such bright pixels provided a more stable quantity for nighttime AOD retrievals than direct retrievals from TOA radiances. Further, both the mean TOA radiance and SD of TOA radiances over artificial sources are significantly impacted by satellite viewing angles. Light domes, the enhanced radiances adjacent to artificial light sources, are strong functions of aerosol properties and especially aerosol vertical distribution, which may be further utilized for retrieving aerosol layer height in future studies. Through inter-comparison with both day- and nighttime Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data, the feasibility of retrieving nighttime AODs using 3-D RTM SHDOM over artificial light sources was demonstrated. Our study shows strong potential for using artificial light sources for nighttime AOD retrievals, while also highlighting larger uncertainties in quantifying surface light source emissions. This study underscores the need for surface light emission source characterizations as a key boundary condition, which is a complex task that requires enhanced input data and further research. We demonstrate how quality-controlled nighttime light data from NASA’s Black Marble product suite could serve as a primary input into estimations of surface light source emissions for nighttime aerosol retrievals.

Jianglong Zhang↗

NASA NTRS1975

Generating social impact scenarios: A key step in making technology assessment studies

The MITRE methodological studies were conducted to define relevant questions in relation to the concept of total impact analysis and to provide a procedure for integrating diverse checklists of questions which trace the initial and secondary impacts of any major technological application or of society's attempts to respond to or redirect that application. Some of the results of that study are presented in tabular form.

Jones, M. V.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical study of a delta planform with multiple jets in ground effect

The flow past a 60-deg delta wing equipped with two thrust-reverser jets near the inboard trailing edge has been analyzed by numerical solution of the 3D thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. An implicit, partially flux-split, approximately-factored Navier-Stokes solver coupled with a multiple grid embedding scheme has been adapted to this problem. Studies of the impact of numerical parameters (e.g., grid refinement and dissipation levels), and flow-field parameters such as the height of the delta wing above the ground plane and the jet size on the solution, were performed. Results of these numerical studies indicate some challenges in the accurate resolution of complex 3D free shear layers and jets. Nevertheless, flow features such as jet deformation and ground vortex formation observed in experimental flow visualizations are captured. Further, comparisons with experimental data confirm the ability to simulate the loss of wing-borne lift, commonly referred to 'suckdown, as the delta planform flies at slow speeds in close proximity to the ground. Detailed analysis of the numerical results has also given additional insight into the structure of the ground vortex and the mechanisms of lift loss.

Chawla, K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Highly Efficient Design-of-Experiments Methods for Combining CFD Analysis and Experimental Data

It is the purpose of this study to examine the impact of "highly efficient" Design-of-Experiments (DOE) methods for combining sets of CFD generated analysis data with smaller sets of Experimental test data in order to accurately predict performance results where experimental test data were not obtained. The study examines the impact of micro-ramp flow control on the shock wave boundary layer (SWBL) interaction where a complete paired set of data exist from both CFD analysis and Experimental measurements By combining the complete set of CFD analysis data composed of fifteen (15) cases with a smaller subset of experimental test data containing four/five (4/5) cases, compound data sets (CFD/EXP) were generated which allows the prediction of the complete set of Experimental results No statistical difference were found to exist between the combined (CFD/EXP) generated data sets and the complete Experimental data set composed of fifteen (15) cases. The same optimal micro-ramp configuration was obtained using the (CFD/EXP) generated data as obtained with the complete set of Experimental data, and the DOE response surfaces generated by the two data sets were also not statistically different.

Anderson, Bernhard H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Impact of Subsampling on MODIS Level-3 Statistics of Cloud Optical Thickness and Effective Radius

The MODIS Level-3 optical thickness and effective radius cloud product is a gridded l deg. x 1 deg. dataset that is derived from aggregation and subsampling at 5 km of 1 km, resolution Level-2 orbital swath data (Level-2 granules). This study examines the impact of the 5 km subsampling on the mean, standard deviation and inhomogeneity parameter statistics of optical thickness and effective radius. The methodology is simple and consists of estimating mean errors for a large collection of Terra and Aqua Level-2 granules by taking the difference of the statistics at the original and subsampled resolutions. It is shown that the Level-3 sampling does not affect the various quantities investigated to the same degree, with second order moments suffering greater subsampling errors, as expected. Mean errors drop dramatically when averages over a sufficient number of regions (e.g., monthly and/or latitudinal averages) are taken, pointing to a dominance of errors that are of random nature. When histograms built from subsampled data with the same binning rules as in the Level-3 dataset are used to reconstruct the quantities of interest, the mean errors do not deteriorate significantly. The results in this paper provide guidance to users of MODIS Level-3 optical thickness and effective radius cloud products on the range of errors due to subsampling they should expect and perhaps account for, in scientific work with this dataset. In general, subsampling errors should not be a serious concern when moderate temporal and/or spatial averaging is performed.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

NASA NTRS2018

Breakthrough Propulsion Study: Assessing Interstellar Flight Challenges and Prospects

Progress toward developing an evaluation process for interstellar propulsion and power options is described. The goal is to contrast the challenges, mission choices, and emerging prospects for propulsion and power, to identify which prospects might be more advantageous and under what circumstances, and to identify which technology details might have greater impacts. Unlike prior studies, the infrastructure expenses and prospects for breakthrough advances are included. This first year's focus is on determining the key questions to enable the analysis. Accordingly, a work breakdown structure to organize the information and associated list of variables is offered. A flow diagram of the basic analysis is presented, as well as more detailed methods to convert the performance measures of disparate propulsion methods into common measures of energy, mass, time, and power. Other methods for equitable comparisons include evaluating the prospects under the same assumptions of payload, mission trajectory, and available energy. Missions are divided into three eras of readiness (precursors, era of infrastructure, and era of breakthroughs) as a first step before proceeding to include comparisons of technology advancement rates. Final evaluation "figures of merit" are offered. Preliminary lists of mission architectures and propulsion prospects are provided.

Marc G. Millis↗

NASA NTRS2017

Scale Dependence of Cirrus Horizontal Heterogeneity Effects on TOA Measurements: MODIS Brightness Temperatures in the Thermal Infrared - Part I

This paper presents a study on the impact of cirrus cloud heterogeneities on MODIS simulated thermal infrared (TIR) brightness temperatures (BTs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as a function of spatial resolution from 50 meters to 10 kilometers. A realistic 3-D (three-dimensional) cirrus field is generated by the 3DCLOUD model (average optical thickness of 1.4, cloudtop and base altitudes at 10 and 12 kilometers, respectively, consisting of aggregate column crystals of D (sub eff) equals 20 microns), and 3-D thermal infrared radiative transfer (RT) is simulated with the 3DMCPOL (3-D Monte Carlo Polarized) code. According to previous studies, differences between 3-D BT computed from a heterogenous pixel and 1-D (one-dimensional) RT computed from a homogeneous pixel are considered dependent at nadir on two effects: (i) the optical thickness horizontal heterogeneity leading to the plane-parallel homogeneous bias (PPHB); and the (ii) horizontal radiative transport (HRT) leading to the independent pixel approximation error (IPAE). A single but realistic cirrus case is simulated and, as expected, the PPHB mainly impacts the low-spatial resolution results (above approximately 250 meters), with averaged values of up to 5-7 K (thousand), while the IPAE mainly impacts the high-spatial resolution results (below approximately 250 meters) with average values of up to 1-2 K (thousand). A sensitivity study has been performed in order to extend these results to various cirrus optical thicknesses and heterogeneities by sampling the cirrus in several ranges of parameters. For four optical thickness classes and four optical heterogeneity classes, we have found that, for nadir observations, the spatial resolution at which the combination of PPHB and HRT effects is the smallest, falls between 100 and 250 meters. These spatial resolutions thus appear to be the best choice to retrieve cirrus optical properties with the smallest cloud heterogeneity-related total bias in the thermal infrared. For off-nadir observations, the average total effect is increased and the minimum is shifted to coarser spatial resolutions.

TOA↗

NASA NTRS2011

Relative Effects of Trajectory Prediction Errors on the AAC Autoresolver

Trajectory prediction is fundamental to automated separation assurance. Every missed alert, false alert and loss of separation can be traced to one or more errors in trajectory prediction. These errors are a product of many different sources including wind prediction errors, inferred pilot intent errors, surveillance errors, navigation errors and aircraft weight estimation errors. This study analyzes the impact of six different types of errors on the performance of an automated separation assurance system composed of a geometric conflict detection algorithm and the Advanced Airspace Concept Autoresolver resolution algorithm. Results show that, of the error sources considered in this study, top-of-descent errors were the leading contributor to missed alerts and failed resolution maneuvers. Descent-speed errors were another significant contributor, as were cruise-speed errors in certain situations. The results further suggest that increasing horizontal detection and resolution standards are not effective strategies for mitigating these types of error sources.

Lauderdale, Todd↗

NASA NTRS1966