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At least 847 records · Page 47

Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

Harris, Charles E.↗

Modeling of Response of Thermoplastic Composites Under High Energy Impact

This work investigates the response of a thermoplastic panel under high energy ballistic impact. The composite material system is a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK T700G (T700/LMPAEK3). Several high energy dynamic impact tests were performed where an aluminum projectile impacted various panels at different impact velocities. For this work, the test performed at an impact velocity of 73.2 m/s was investigated. The projectile rebounded upon impact, and the damage to the panel was characterized through ultrasonic and CT-scanning. Response of the panel under impact and the associated damage is discussed. Numerical simulation of the impact process was performed using the LS-DYNA® computer code [1] with a new material model MAT_COMPOSITE_DAMAGE_DGD (MAT 299), a modification over MAT 261 material model in terms of an improved representation of damage coupling and additional capability for strain rate effects. Delaminations were modeled using cohesive zone contact formulation in LS-DYNA®, wherein the mixed-mode fracture is captured via the Benzegaggh-Kenane (B-K) mode-dependent fracture energy interpolation law. Simulation of this impact test demonstrates a good match of results in terms of panel deflection and panel-projectile interactions. The overall extent of delaminations was under-predicted by the simulation. This work forms the basis to model tests performed at higher velocities, involving projectile penetration of panel.

Composite Materials↗

Microphysical Modelling of the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter: Impact of Homogeneous Freezing on PSCs - 3

Simulations of the 1999-2000 winter have tested the effect on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) of the homogeneous freezing of liquid ternary solutions into nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and nitric acid dihydrate (NAD). Proposed laboratory-derived volume-based and surface-based homogeneous freezing rates have both been examined, including different assumptions about the extrapolation of laboratory measurements to atmospheric conditions. Widespread PSC formation and denitrification are possible in several of the scenarios examined. However, the simulations are all unable to explain the solid-phase PSCs observed early in the 1999-2000 winter, and are unable to reproduce the measured extent of vortex denitrification. These problems can both be attributed to the relatively cold temperatures, more than 5 K below the NAT condensation point, necessary for effective homogeneous freezing. Therefore synoptic-scale homogeneous freezing appears unlikely to be the primary mechanism responsible for solid-phase PSC formation.

Drdla, K.↗

Numerical Modeling of the South Pole-Aitkin Impact

The South Pole-Aitkin (SPA) basin, on the far side of the Moon, is the largest and oldest impact structure still preserved in the solar system. The crater is about 2500 km in diameter and formed in the Pre-Nectarian era of lunar history, over 4 Gyr ago. At this time, the thermal state of the Moon was much hotter than it is today. Accretional energy from the rapidly forming Moon melted the outermost few hundred kilometers of the Moon. As this magma ocean differentiated and cooled a 60 100-km thick low-density crust formed at the surface; below this the residual melt, with a higher density, cooled to form the lunar mantle. The giant SPA impact event punctured the Moon some time during the cooling of the magma ocean and thus provides a unique window for studying the lunar interior and the early formative processes of the Moon. The impact excavated otherwise inaccessible samples of the deep crust and (possibly) upper mantle, which has inspired proposed sample return missions. Furthermore, the thermal and rheologic state of the early Moon played a role in shaping the final structure of the basin. To aid in site selection for future sample return missions to the SPA basin, and to investigate the effect of thermal state on final crater structure, we performed some numerical simulations of the SPA impact event.

Collins, G. S.↗

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗

BOREAS TGB-5 CO2, CH4 and CO Chamber Flux Data Over the NSA

The BOReal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study Trace Gas Biogeochemistry (BOREAS TGB-5) team collected a variety of trace gas concentration and flux measurements at several NSA sites. This data set contains carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) chamber flux measurements conducted in 1994 at upland forest sites that experienced stand-replacement fires. These measurements were acquired to understand the impact of fires on soil biogeochemistry and related changes in trace gas exchange in boreal forest soils. Relevant ancillary data, including data concerning the soil temperature, solar irradiance, and information from nearby un-burned control sites, are included to provide a basis for modeling the regional impacts of fire and climate changes on trace gas biogeochemistry. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files.

Burke, Roger↗

Scientific Computing Paradigm

The usage model of supercomputers for scientific applications, such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD), has changed over the years. Scientific visualization has moved scientists away from looking at numbers to looking at three-dimensional images, which capture the meaning of the data. This change has impacted the system models for computing. This report details the model which is used by scientists at NASA's research centers.

VanZandt, John↗

Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5 to -6% (SSP126) and +1 to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9 shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts — when the change signal emerges from the noise — consistently occurs earlier in the new projections for several main producing regions before 2040. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

climate change↗

Dust particles detected near Giacobini-Zinner by the ICE plasma wave instrument

During the ICE flyby of Giacobini-Zinner the plasma wave instrument detected numerous impulsive signals caused by dust impacts on the spacecraft. Most of the impacts occurred within 30,000 km of the comet. The impact rate averaged over the inbound and outbound legs varies approximately as 1/r-squared, as would be expected for an isotropic constant velocity radial outflow. Small differences between the inbound and outbound legs exist which may be indicative of azimuthal variations in the dust production rate. A simple model of the impact ionization and charge collection by the antenna indicates that the particles have a mass on the order of 10 to the -12 to 10 to the -10th gm, corresponding to particles with radii of a few microns.

Gurnett, D. A.↗

Small-Scale Variability of Large Cloud Drops

Cloud droplet size distribution is one of the most fundamental subjects in cloud physics. Understanding of spatial distribution and small-scale fluctuations of cloud droplets is essential for both cloud physics and atmospheric radiation. For cloud physics, it relates to the coalescence growth of raindrops while for radiation, it has a strong impact on a cloud's radiative properties. Most of the existing cloud radiation and precipitation formation models assume that the mean number of drops with a given radius varies proportionally to volume. The analysis of microphysical data on liquid water drop sizes shows that, for sufficiently small volumes, the number is proportional to the drop size dependent power of the volume. For abundant small drops present, the exponent is 1 as assumed in the conventional approach. However, for rarer large drops, the exponents fall below unity. At small scales, therefore, the mean number of large drops decreases with volume at a slower rate than the conventional approach assumes, suggesting more large drops at these scales than conventional models account for; their impact is consequently underestimated. Size dependent models of spatial distribution of cloud drops that simulate the observed power laws show strong drop clustering, the more so the larger the drops. The degree of clustering is determined by the observed exponents. The strong clustering of large drops arises naturally from the observed power-law statistics. Current theories of photon-cloud interaction and warm rain formation will need radical revision in order to produce these statistics; their underlying equations are unable to yield the observed power law.

Marshak, Alexander↗

Canadian and Alaskan Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties, Their Evolution and Controlling Factors, From Satellite Observations

The optical and chemical properties of biomass burning (BB) smoke particles greatly affect the impact that wildfires have on climate and air quality. Previous work has demonstrated some links between smoke properties and factors such as fuel type and meteorology. However, the factors controlling BB particle speciation at emission are not adequately understood nor are the factors driving particle aging during atmospheric transport. As such, modeling wildfire smoke impacts on climate and air quality remains challenging. The potential to provide robust, statistical characterizations of BB particles based on ecosystem type and ambient environmental conditions with remote sensing data is investigated here. Space-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations, combined with the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) algorithm and the MISR Interactive Explorer (MINX) tool, are used to retrieve smoke plume aerosol optical depth (AOD) and to provide constraints on plume vertical extent; smoke age; and particle size, shape, light-absorption properties, and absorption spectral dependence. These tools are applied to numerous wildfire plumes in Canada and Alaska, across a range of conditions, to create a regional inventory of BB particle-type temporal and spatial distribution. We then statistically compare these results with satellite measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and land cover characteristics, as well as short-term climate, meteorological, and drought information from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis and the North American Drought Monitor. We find statistically significant differences in the retrieved smoke properties based on land cover type, with fires in forests producing the thickest plumes containing the largest, brightest particles and fires in savannas and grasslands exhibiting the opposite. Additionally, the inferred dominant aging mechanisms and the timescales over which they occur vary systematically between land types. This work demonstrates the potential of remote sensing to constrain BB particle properties and the mechanisms governing their evolution over entire ecosystems. It also begins to realize this potential, as a means of improving regional and global climate and air quality modeling in a rapidly changing world.

Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes↗

Influence of transverse-shear and large-deformation effects on the low-speed impact response of laminated composite plates

An analytical procedure is presented for determining the transient response of simply supported, rectangular laminated composite plates subjected to impact loads from airgun-propelled or dropped-weight impactors. A first-order shear-deformation theory is included in the analysis to represent properly any local short-wave-length transient bending response. The impact force is modeled as a locally distributed load with a cosine-cosine distribution. A double Fourier series expansion and the Timoshenko small-increment method are used to determine the contact force, out-of-plane deflections, and in-plane strains and stresses at any plate location due to an impact force at any plate location. The results of experimental and analytical studies are compared for quasi-isotropic laminates. The results indicate that using the appropriate local force distribution for the locally loaded area and including transverse-shear-deformation effects in the laminated plate response analysis are important. The applicability of the present analytical procedure based on small deformation theory is investigated by comparing analytical and experimental results for combinations of quasi-isotropic laminate thicknesses and impact energy levels. The results of this study indicate that large-deformation effects influence the response of both 24- and 32-ply laminated plates, and that a geometrically nonlinear analysis is required for predicting the response accurately.

Ambur, Damodar R.↗