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At least 847 records · Page 47

Exploring Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances in Global MHD: Physics and Numerics

One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Notable impact of wildfires in the western United States on weather hazards in the central United States

Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States. Wildfire impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we use unique modeling developments to explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on precipitation and hail in the central US. We find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By enhancing surface high pressure and increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western United States produce ( 1 ) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central United States and ( 2 ) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central United States. Both the meteorological environment more conducive to severe convective storms and increased aerosols contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. Moreover, the local wildfires in the central US also enhance the severity of storms, but their impact is notably smaller than the impact of remote wildfires in California and Oregon because of the lessened severity of the local wildfires. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Restoration Strategy for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

In electric power distribution systems, distributed energy resources (DERs) can act as controllable power sources and support utility operators to minimize power outages after extreme weather events (e.g., hurricane, earthquake, wildfire) and thus help enhance the grid's resilience. Meanwhile, the influences of extreme events and the capabilities of DERs are dynamic and difficult to predict. Hence, the desired distribution system restoration strategy should be able to evolve according to real-time fault/dis-turbance information and the availability of DERs. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic restoration strategy for distribution systems to enhance system resilience against potential hazards. An efficient reconfiguration algorithm is developed to eliminate the use of integer variables to relieve the computational burden. Model predictive control is implemented to adjust the system topology and DER operation set points based on the updated fault information and DER forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed restoration model in enhancing distribution system resilience is validated through an IEEE 123-bus test system. Simulation results also validate that the proposed restoration model can mitigate the occurrence of unexpected events and the fluctuations of DERs.

distributed energy resources (DERs)↗

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Objectives and models of the planetary quarantine program

The objectives of the planetary quarantine program are presented and the history of early contamination prevention efforts is outlined. Contamination models which were previously established are given and include: determination of parameters; symbol nomenclature; and calculations of contamination and hazard probabilities. Planetary quarantine is discussed as an issue of national and international concern. Information on international treaty and meetings on spacecraft sterilization, quarantine standards, and policies is provided. The specific contamination probabilities of the U.S.S.R. Venus 3 flyby are included.

Werber, M.↗

Overview of NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center's program on knowledge of atmospheric processes

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is charged with the responsibility to enhance aviation safety through improving understanding of various atmospheric phenomena. A brief discussion is presented concerning the tasks and work being accomplished by MSFC. The tasks are defined as follows: (1) to determine and define the turbulence and steady wind environments induced by buildings, towers, hills, trees, etc., (2) to identify, develop, and apply natural environment technology for the reconstruction and/or simulation of the natural environment for aircraft accident investigation and hazard identification, (3) to develop basic information about free atmosphere perturbations, (4) to develop and apply fog modification mathematical models to assess candidate fog modification schemes and to develop appropriate instrumentation to aquire basic data about fog. To accomplish these tasks MSFC has developed a program involving field data acquisition, wind tunnel studies, theoretical studies, data analysis, and flight simulation studies.

Camp, D. W.↗

Fiber-Supported Droplet Combustion Experiment-2

A major portion of the energy produced in the world today comes from the burning of liquid hydrocarbon fuels in the form of droplets. Understanding the fundamental physical processes involved in droplet combustion is not only important in energy production but also in propulsion, in the mitigation of combustion-generated pollution, and in the control of the fire hazards associated with handling liquid combustibles. Microgravity makes spherically symmetric combustion possible, allowing investigators to easily validate their droplet models without the complicating effects of gravity. The Fiber-Supported Droplet Combustion (FSDC-2) investigation was conducted in the Microgravity Glovebox facility of the shuttles' Spacelab during the reflight of the Microgravity Science Laboratory (MSL- 1R) on STS-94 in July 1997. FSDC-2 studied fundamental phenomena related to liquid fuel droplet combustion in air. Pure fuels and mixtures of fuels were burned as isolated single and duo droplets with and without forced air convection. FSDC-2 is sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, whose researchers are working in cooperation with several investigators from industry and academia. The rate at which a droplet burns is important in many commercial applications. The classical theory of droplet burning assumes that, for an isolated, spherically symmetric, single-fuel droplet, the gas-phase combustion processes are much faster than the droplet surface regression rate and that the liquid phase is at a uniform temperature equal to the boiling point. Recent, more advanced models predict that both the liquid and gas phases are unsteady during a substantial portion of the droplet's burning history, thus affecting the instantaneous and average burning rates, and that flame radiation is a dominant mechanism that can extinguish flames in a microgravity environment. FSDC-2 has provided well-defined, symmetric droplet burning data including radiative emissions to validate these theoretical models for heptane, decane, ethanol, and methanol fuels. Since most commercial combustion systems burn droplets in a convective environment, data were obtained without and with convective flow over the burning droplet (see the following photos).

Colantonio, Renato O.↗

Utilizing Ion-Mobility Data to Estimate Molecular Masses

A method is being developed for utilizing readings of an ion-mobility spectrometer (IMS) to estimate molecular masses of ions that have passed through the spectrometer. The method involves the use of (1) some feature-based descriptors of structures of molecules of interest and (2) reduced ion mobilities calculated from IMS readings as inputs to (3) a neural network. This development is part of a larger effort to enable the use of IMSs as relatively inexpensive, robust, lightweight instruments to identify, via molecular masses, individual compounds or groups of compounds (especially organic compounds) that may be present in specific environments or samples. Potential applications include detection of organic molecules as signs of life on remote planets, modeling and detection of biochemicals of interest in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries, and detection of chemical and biological hazards in industrial, homeland-security, and industrial settings.

Duong, Tuan↗

An Assurance Case with a Model at its Core

We describe our pilot study development of an Assurance Case arguing the robustness of a spacecraft demonstration of optical communication. Our Assurance Case addresses the concern that optical communication may be interrupted by the presence of cloud cover, threatening the success of the demonstration. Central to our Assurance Case is its use of a model of atmospheric attenuation to support a key portion of the robustness argument. The conclusion for the demonstration is that its schedule slack plus ability to store data for transmission later accommodates occasional weather-caused atmospheric attenuation.We indicate how the overall structure of the Assurance Case derives from the Objectives Hierarchy set forth in the NASA Reliability and Maintainability standard. We then present the portions of the Assurance Case that argue (1) the atmospheric attenuation model is sufficiently accurate, (2) application of the model shows the desired robustness of the demonstration, and (3) all the model assumptions are satisfied in its application. Lastly, we suggest how an engineering model of the demonstration system and its use could inform the development of the Assurance Case encompassing additional plausible hazards.

DiVenti, Anthony↗

Dynamic Restoration Strategy for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

In electric power distribution systems, distributed energy resources (DERs) can act as controllable power sources and support utility operators to minimize power outages after extreme weather events (e.g., hurricane, earthquake, wildfire) and thus help enhance the grid's resilience. Meanwhile, the influences of extreme events and the capabilities of DERs are dynamic and difficult to predict. Hence, the desired distribution system restoration strategy should be able to evolve according to real-time fault/disturbance information and the availability of DERs. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic restoration strategy for distribution systems to enhance system resilience against potential hazards. An efficient reconfiguration algorithm is developed to eliminate the use of integer variables to relieve the computational burden. Model predictive control is implemented to adjust the system topology and DER operation set points based on the updated fault information and DER forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed restoration model in enhancing distribution system resilience is validated through an IEEE 123-bus test system. Simulation results also validate that the proposed restoration model can mitigate the occurrence of unexpected events and the fluctuations of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

O'Brien, Hollie↗

Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear waste

A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.

Friedlander, A. L.↗

Proposed Mars Surveyor Landing Sites in Northern Meridiani Sinus, Southern Elysium Planitia, and Argyre Planitia

Our objective is to propose two landing sites that the Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander and Athena Rover could go to on Mars that should meet the safety requirements of the spacecraft landing system and optimize surface operations (chiefly driven by power and communications requirements). An additional site within Argyre Planitia, initially proposed by Parker to the Mars Surveyor Landing Site program, is also proposed for potential consideration for post-2001 missions to Mars, as it is well outside the current latitude limits for the Athena Rover. All three sites are designed to be situated as close to a diversity of geologic units within a few kilometers of the landing site so that diversity can be placed in a geologic context. This objective is very different from the Mars Pathfinder requirement to land at a site with a maximum chance for containing a diversity of rocks within a few tens of meters of the lander. That requirement was driven by the Sojourner mobility limit of a few tens of meters. It can be argued that the Athena project, with its much larger mobility capability, might actually want to avoid such a site, because placing collected samples in geologic context would be difficult. While it has been argued, both before and after the Mars Pathfinder landing, that the provenance for local blocks may be determined by orbiter spectra, primarily from the MGS TES instrument, our ability to do so has yet to be demonstrated. Indeed, several months after conclusion of the Pathfinder mission, we have yet to reach a consensus on the composition of local materials. Our primary data set for selecting a landing site within the latitude and elevation constraints of the 2001 mission is the Viking Orbiter image archive. The site must be selected to place the landing ellipse so as to avoid obvious hazards, such as steep slopes, large or numerous craters, or abundant large knobs. For this purpose, we chose a resolution limit of better than 50 m/pixel. This necessarily excludes from the present study images from current and future orbiter spacecraft, until such data does become readily available. Within each proposed region, it may be possible to identify additional sites once these data become available. Second, the fine-component thermal inertia data, should be greater than about 5 or 6 cgs Units (10(exp -3) cal/sq cm s(exp -0.5)/K). Low thermal inertias imply dusty environments, which could pose a mobility hazard. Similarly, the albedo of the site should not be particularly high, which would also suggest dusty surfaces. Low albedos are preferred, as they often coincide with low Viking red:violet ratios and indicate less dusty surfaces. Next, the Modeled Block Abundance should also not be too high or too low. Based on the Viking Lander and Mars Pathfinder experiences, percentages of blocks should be on the order of 5-25%. Too many blocks could pose a hazard to the landing and mobility. Too few blocks could also indicate a dusty surface. Primary Landing Site: Northern Meridiani Sinus (Proposed by T. J. Parker and K., S. Edgett) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 0-3 N, 350-2 W. *Elevation (Viking): about0.5-1.5 Ian. (2) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbits 709A and 410B). Possible stereo coverage in region where two orbits overlap (probably small parallax angle, as these orbits are not listed in NASA Contractor Report 3501) (3) Albedo: about .18 -.26 (4) Block Abundance: 5-26% (5)Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: 5-9 cgs units This region consists of bright deposits similar to those described by Edgett et al, that also lie within a prominent dark albedo region. These deposits are flat-lying, to such a degree that they ramp against topography rather than draping over it. This led Edgett and Parker to suggest that they may be subaqueous sediments, possibly lacustrine or marine evaporites, laid down sometime from the late Noachian to middle Hesperian (age determination pending crater counts). A contact between this material and elevated, dissected highlands to the south was identified , and is described by Edgett et al. Our desire in proposing this landing site is to sample the edge of this deposit where it has been exposed through etching, presumably eolian deflation (the deposit, though in the highlands, is itself only lightly to moderately cratered). This should enable access to in situ stratigraphy. The actual landing site will be selected where slopes are not expected to be steep, such that the rover itself should be able to traverse them and sample layered materials on the way, either up or down the slope. Perhaps due to uncertainties at this time as to the friability or meter-scale roughness of the deposit, it might make sense to place the landing ellipse on the exhumed highland surface adjacent to the deflated margin of the deposit and plan on driving to the deposit rather than landing on it and driving downslope. This should also enable imaging the margin for evidence of layering should it prove too difficult to climb. A target ellipse on the highland surface should also allow Athena access to ancient Noachian highland materials, particularly if placed near crater ejecta or an inlier of knobby material. Secondary Landing Site: Southern Elysium Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 1.5-3.5 S, 195-198 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): -1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbit 725). Possible stereo coverage between images from beginning and end of orbit that overlap (probably small parallax angle) (4) Albedo: about .27-.28 (5) Block Abundance: 4-7% (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: about 3 cgs units This region consists of eroded knobby material, probably of Noachian age, though much of the crater population has been destroyed, that is onlapped at a sharp contact by an extensive plains unit in southern Elysium Planitia that is Amazonian in age. The plains materials have been attributed to unusually low-viscosity flood lavas from fissures south of the Elysium volcanic rise, or to lacustrine materials associated with a large, Amazonian lake at the source of Marte Vallis. Parker and Schenk presented evidence in support of the latter interpretation, though they attributed the putative shore morphology to an embayment of a northern plains ocean into the southern Elysium region. Detailed examination of the margin of the deposit, showing erosion, not simply burial, of small crater rims and fluidized ejecta blankets, also points to lacustrine or marine sedimentation rather than volcanic plains burial. The plains surface exhibits a "crusty" appearance that many researchers have attributed to pressure ridges in lava flows. In a lacustrine context, they also resemble pressure ridges in desiccated evaporite deposits and salt-rimmed pools (now dry) similar in scale and morphology to spectacular, hundred meter-scale pool rims in alkaline Lake Natron, East African Rift. The eroded highland margin surface adjacent to these plains appears to be fairly smooth, even at 15 m/pixel. Isolated knob inliers are scattered from a few kilometers to several tens of "kilometers apart. Heights of the knobs have not been measured yet but, based on experience with similar features in the Pathfinder landing ellipse, are probably typically on the order of several tens of meters high and smaller, though some of the largest knobs in the region are probably up to a few hundred meters high. Two craters larger than a kilometer in diameter, with fluidized deposits, lie nearby the proposed landing site. Very high-resolution images from MOC should help to determine whether a landing site navigable by the Athena rover could be placed in this region. The space between knobs and craters is large enough to enable placement of a target landing ellipse between them but still provide access to one or more of them and to the margin of the Elysium plains material. Post-2001 Mars Surveyor Landing Site: Argyre Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 55-56 S, 41-43 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): 1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 40 m/pixel images (orbits 567B, 568B, and 569B). Excellent stereo coverage with large parallax angles over the entire landing site region, and much of central and southern Argyre. (4) Albedo: about .23-.24 (5) Block Abundance: No data (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: No data The floors of both the Argyre and Hellas basins contain etched layered materials that are probably thick accumulations of channel or lacustrine sediments. The deposits in Hellas are much more eroded than those in Argyre, and Hellas lacks a channel outlet. Argyre is unique in that Uzboi Vallis flowed out of the basin, requiring overflow of a standing body of water within Argyre. This makes it the largest impact basin on Mars with channels both draining into it and flowing out from it. Hellas' channels may be catastrophic flood channels, whereas Argyre was fed by modest-scale valley networks, though the outlet at Uzboi Vallis was a catastrophic flood Highland craters and basins of this kind should be high-priority landing targets for missions intended to focus on the search for either prebiotic organic materials or even simple fossil microorganisms. Basins with internally-draining valley networks should be preferred over flood channels, as they could have provided the long-term influx of water favorable to the origin of life. (Catastrophic floods are not conducive to fossil preservation, due to their very short durations and high transportation energies). They also afford an opportunity to study the evolution of the planet's climate and volatiles during the period of time between the late Noachian and early Hesperian, when a drastic change from a proposed early warm, wet climate to one more closely resembling the modern environment is thought to have occurred. Large basin

Parker, T. J.↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Terrain Mapping and Landing Site Detection for Autonomous UAVs

The next generation of Mars rotorcrafts requires on-board autonomous hazard avoidance landing. To this end, this work proposes a system that performs continuous multi- resolution height map reconstruction and safe landing spot detection. Structure-from-Motion measurements are aggregated in a pyramid structure using a novel Optimal Mixture of Gaus- sians formulation that provides a comprehensive uncertainty model. Our multiresolution pyramid is built more efficiently and accurately than past work by decoupling pyramid filling from the measurement updates of different resolutions.To detect the safest landing location, after an optimized hazard segmentation, we use a mean shift algorithm on multiple distance transform peaks to account for terrain roughness and uncertainty. The benefits of our contributions are evaluated on real and synthetic flight data.

Brockers, Roland↗

Radiation Transport Models in Space: from Supernovae to Cells

Humans embarking on deep space exploration missions will encounter persistent exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - an energetic and highly complex radiation field that is unlike anything found on Earth. Exposure to such radiation fields is attributed to various adverse health effects, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and cognitive impairment and is identified by NASA as one of the five main hazards of human spaceflight. It is therefore critical to be able to fully characterize the exposure received by humans behind shielding in space and project consequent health risks. A wide variety of computational models have been developed over the years to help meet this requirement. In this talk, an overview of the GCR environment in deep space is provided. Methods of propagating GCR fields through the shielding that protects humans in space are described along with simulation tools used to assess biological damage at the cellular scale. Finally, the NASA cancer risk model is briefly described, and risk projections are provided for various mission scenarios. Radiation transport models and solution methods pervade many aspects of this talk. For example, the GCR spectrum impinging on spacecraft is determined by solving the Fokker-Planck transport equation to propagate cosmic rays (believed to originate from supernovae) from the edge of the heliosphere to the vicinity of Earth. The Boltzmann transport equation is solved to transport this GCR spectrum through shielding and human tissue. Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate the transport of low energy electrons that dominate biological damage at the cellular scale. Progress and challenges in each of these areas will be highlighted.

Tony C. Slaba↗

Analysis of pilot warning indicator performance in terminal area traffic.

Three pilot warning indicator concepts for collision hazard avoidance are analyzed using computer fast-time simulation. A hazard measure is defined based on a 1/2-g maximum horizontal acceleration, a maximum climb or dive angle of 10 deg for each aircraft, and a 20-sec warning time, through escape completion. The traffic model is based on flight tracks recorded in the Atlanta terminal area over an 11 hr period during August 1967. The basic PWI concept studied alarms on range to flashing beacons mounted on intruder aircraft as a function of relative azimuth and elevation. The alarm-hazard epoch ratio is about 17/1 to maintain the missed-alarm rate below 10%. Beacon vignetting or range-rate discrimination are shown to reduce the false-alarm rate by about 75%.

Ruetenik, J. R.↗