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DOE OSTI2025

The Bias-Variance-Correlation Tradeoff and Its Implications for ML Applications in HEP

The bias-variance tradeoff is a well-recognized phenomenon in statistics and machine learning. In this talk, I will discuss an extension, dubbed the bias-variance-correlation tradeoff. Roughly speaking, as the flexibility of a model decreases, the correlations in the outputs of a trained model for different inputs increases. Such correlations have implications for several applications of machine learning in high energy physics, e.g., the use generative models for event generation. In particular, I will argue that claims in the literature of data amplification by generative models stem from ignoring important correlations between the model's outputs for different inputs.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000227↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Architecture Mapping to Understand Transformation (GAMUT): Concept Definition

The electric power system is undergoing significant transformation driven by changes in the generation mix, increasing reliance on information and communication technologies, evolving customer expectations, and a dynamic cyber-physical environment. To address these challenges, substantial investments will be made over the next decade to create a flexible, affordable, secure, reliable, and resilient electric system. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity is developing knowledge management tools aimed at systematically documenting technology pilots and demonstration projects. This initiative seeks to improve understanding of operating contexts, planning steps, and integration requirements for innovative grid technologies. The Department of Energy project leverages Grid Architecture principles to collect and organize insights into the interdependencies, requirements, and capabilities of various grid solutions. By employing a systematic approach, the project aims to perform a feasibility study for the development of a software tool that will support stakeholders, including regulators, transmission and distribution system operators, distributed energy resources aggregators, and technology providers. By offering a systematic, software-based framework to document technologies, understand their benefits and impacts, and inform deployment strategies, the proposed Grid Architecture Mapping to Understand Transformation (GAMUT) Tool is intended to reduce costs, enhance decision-making, and facilitate scaling and effective deployment of new technologies. The feasibility study will evaluate the technical and financial viability of the GAMUT Tool, identifying stakeholder needs and assessing risks and mitigation strategies. Ultimately, the GAMUT team aims to develop an initial minimal viable product, followed by staged improvements, to aid in the modernization of the electric grid, contributing to a more sustainable and resilient energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unlocking the price

To help balance load and power generation that ensue from the electrification of transportation and the increased connection of variable power sources to the grid, ABB has developed an RL-based dynamic price model for EV charging with the required flexibility to respond to changing grid conditions.

Suryanarayana, Harish↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstrating Advanced Nuclear Energy Solutions for Net Zero

Background/Objectives. The aggressive goals being set by nation states, communities, and private industry for decarbonization of grid electricity, industrial heat sources, and transportation around the world are imperative to mitigating the devastating effects that we are seeing from climate change. Although many of these goals focus on accomplishments by 2035 or 2050, the decisions that we make today won’t just impact the landscape of energy systems for the next 20 or 30 years—they will shape the world’s environment for centuries to come. That means that we can’t just focus on technologies that will get us to 2050, but technologies that will withstand our energy demands over that long-ranging future. Success will require us to utilize all of the clean energy resources that we have available to meet demands for electricity, heat, and steam, and we will need energy carriers such as hydrogen that do not emit additional greenhouse gases at the point of use. Nuclear energy, ranging from technologies in service today to advanced, higher temperature and modular systems that will be in service this decade, will provide a robust complement to renewable energy resources that operate variably. Researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy laboratory complex are working to advance multiple aspects of these clean energy solutions, with many focusing on integrated energy system solutions that leverage all available clean energy assets to meet wide-ranging energy demands. Approach/Activities. Nuclear energy is a proven, zero-emission option during operation that can provide consistent, dispatchable power to meet electricity demands while also providing high-quality heat that can meet energy demands beyond the electricity sector. Energy system design should seek to maximize these assets. As a dispatchable energy source with a small land utilization footprint, nuclear energy can be collocated with renewable resources, and the smaller systems that will be deployed this decade (ranging from a few megawatts to hundreds of megawatts) can be installed right where that energy is needed. Integrated nuclear and renewable systems will enhance power grid reliability and resilience, and they will help stabilize the grid through their increasingly flexible operation. Licensing, installation, and broad adoption of these advanced nuclear energy systems are expected to progress significantly in the 2020s, but this may be longer than desired by some stakeholders wishing to implement impactful clean energy decisions today. However, one must recall that nuclear energy systems will operate for 80 or more years, as is being demonstrated by current fleet nuclear systems. The nuclear community is extremely thorough in reviewing these systems with regard to safety and security; these efforts ensure that the deployed systems will continue to provide reliable, resilient energy over that operational lifetime. That investment of time up front will ensure that we can support energy demands over the centuries to come. While advanced nuclear technologies move through this process, communities and private industry may choose to install renewable generation systems that can later be coupled to the complementary nuclear systems as they become available—thus moving closer to the net zero goals in the near term. Choosing technologies and deployment configurations that allow small modular nuclear powerhouses to be added to these “energy parks” as they become available will ensure that advanced technologies can be readily adopted to support growing demands for clean energy. Results/Lessons Learned. The primary focus of integrated energy systems (IES) research is to assess the technical and economic potential of novel multi-input, multioutput solutions that are expected to enhance energy system flexibility, reliability, and resilience as we pursue a clean energy transition. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. In early FY23 Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will commission thermal energy generation systems that emulate nuclear fission energy input using electric heating and will allow for integrated system testing with thermal energy storage, hydrogen production via high temperature electrolysis (HTE), and power systems hardware to demonstrate operation of a clean energy park within a microgrid or larger grid infrastructure, supporting up to 450 kW of heat input via electric heating and demonstrating operation of HTE systems at the multi-hundred kW scale. This presentation will highlight the wide array of RD&D being conducted at INL and partner laboratories to develop and deploy nuclear and renewable-based IES that will be key to achieving our net zero goals, including both computational and experimental demonstrations. By working with key collaborators in industry, analytical st

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Charting Hydropower's Role in the Next-Generation Grid

To build a 100% clean energy power sector, the United States is adding more energy storage and variable renewable energy sources, like solar power and wind energy, to the grid. Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) can help with both. These technologies already play a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. power grid, and this role will become even more valuable as that grid evolves. That's why researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are analyzing how the U.S. electricity sector could invest in hydropower and PSH using new data and modeling capabilities.

HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic multi-period optimal dispatch of energy storage in unbalanced distribution feeders

This report presents a convex, multi-period, AC-feasible Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework that robustly dispatches flexible demand-side resources in unbalanced distribution feeders against uncertainty in very-short timescale solar Photo-Voltaic (PV) forecasts. This is valuable for power systems with significant behind-the-meter solar PV generation as their operation is affected by uncertainty from forecasts of demand and solar PV generation. The aim of this work is then to ensure the feasibility and reliability of distribution system operation under high solar PV penetration. We develop and present a novel, robust OPF formulation that accounts for both the nonlinear power flow constraints and the uncertainty in forecasts. This is achieved by linearizing an optimal trajectory and using first-order methods to systematically tighten voltage bounds. Case studies on a realistic distribution feeder shows the effectiveness of a receding-horizon implementation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Corroborating VNA and thermal measurements of transmission loss on the DIII-D ECH waveguide system

Electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive (ECCD) will play a large role in tokamak-based fusion reactors. At the DIII-D tokamak, 110 GHz microwaves injected into the plasma can provide core heating and current drive as well as impurity control, neoclassical tearing mode mitigation, and breakdown assistance. Understanding the physics of these processes relies on accurate estimates of injected ECH power. DIII-D’s ECH system consists of six MW-class Microwave Power Products (MPP) gyrotron microwave sources. Operating the gyrotrons far from the tokamak removes them from magnetic field interference, so 31.75 mm inner-diameter corrugated waveguides transmit the microwave power the 80 m from the gyrotrons to steerable launchers in the tokamak chamber. Estimates of injected power rely on knowing the generated power at the source and then subtracting transmission loss. Conventional transmission loss measurements based on calorimetric dummy loads are onerous and only possible during extended maintenance periods. This work examines two tools that provide more flexibility for the transmission loss measurements. Furthermore, a resistive temperature detector (RTD) array installed along a waveguide measures heat lost to the transmission line, and low power time domain reflectometry (TDR) measurements with a vector network analyzer (VNA) allows loss measurements without burdensome hardware modifications.

ECH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactional Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

A transition from generation on demand to consumption on demand is one of the solutions to overcome the many limitations associated with the higher penetration of renewable energy sources. Such a transition, however, requires a considerable amount of load flexibility in the demand side. Demand response (DR) programs can reveal and utilize this demand flexibility by enabling the participation of a large number of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Existing approaches on DR require significant modelling or training efforts, are computationally expensive, and do not guarantee the satisfaction of end users. To address the aforementioned limitations, this software code considers a scalable hierarchical model-free transactional control approach that incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control (MFC) mechanisms. The developed approach separates the control mechanism into upper and lower levels. The MFC modulates the flexible GEB in the lower level with guaranteed thermal comfort of end users in response to the optimal pricing and power signals determined in the upper layer using a Stackelberg game integrated with aggregate virtual battery constraints. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable even on small, embedded devices. This software code enables the use of residential and small-size commercial buildings to offer a potentially substantial source of ancillary grid services that are currently underutilized. A hierarchical, model-free transactive building control provides a smooth interface between the grid service requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. Model-free control, which supports distributed control architecture, will be a more scalable solution that can be deployed in neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. The proposed approach contributes to the body of knowledge on two main aspects. First, it couples the MFC with the game-theoretic control and proposes a scalable model-free transactive control approach. MFC does not require any modeling effort or model training for the various building loads. This is very beneficial since deriving an accurate model for every single unit participating in DR programs and obtaining all the parameters about the units (e.g., thermal coefficients, standby losses) are infeasible. Also, MFC is computationally efficient, easily deployable even on small, embedded devices, and can be implemented in real time. Second, it integrates the concept of virtual battery into DR via the Stackelberg game. The concept of virtual battery enables efficient coordination and aggregation of a large number of flexible GEB with guaranteed thermal comfort of end users.

Olama, Mohammed [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), O↗

DOE OSTI2020

Usable Data Abstractions for Next-Generation Scientific Workflows

Data- and computationally-intensive scientific research, such as numerical simulations and inversions or the training of large neural networks in machine learning applications, that are well suited for HPC environments also often require expert insight and evaluation throughout the computation which can be greatly facilitated with the use of interactive computing tools, such as those in the Jupyter ecosystem. HPC workflows and interactive workflows are typically treated as orthogonal, however, the next generation of research will require both. The first challenge we face in this project is thus designing the right level of abstractions to allow interactive capabilities in the JupyterLab environment to allow the working scientist to flexibly explore and query their data at multiple levels, with a minimal amount of customization required of the underlying optimized codes. In addition to these questions regarding the high-level representation of data for interactive use in HPC, we tackled two additional issues that are part of the entire lifecycle of research and that become particularly acute in HPC contexts: how to improve the experience of interfacing with the HPC system's scheduling environment for a scientist focused on exploratory questions, and how can that scientist then best share the results of their work with others in a self-contained, reproducible manner.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Future of Zero Energy Buildings: Produce, Respond, Regenerate: Preprint

The zero energy buildings concept is more than 20 years old, and the paradigm shift from buildings as energy consumers to buildings as energy producers is underway. Buildings also consume land and material resources, however, with attendant environmental impacts. Another paradigm is emerging: a built environment that produces energy and is environmentally responsive and regenerative. This paper investigates an updated framework for thinking about zero energy buildings that includes discussions of prioritizing renewables; determining on-site versus off-site generation; exploring how and when buildings should use energy; and balancing renewables, storage, and energy efficiency. Buildings are typically connected to the utility grid and the utility grid develops largely in response to the built environment. If more buildings’ real time electricity use aligned with renewable generation, more renewables would be added to the grid. Ultimately, the goal for zero energy buildings will be to use 100% renewables, 100% of the time, matching loads with energy storage and renewable generation at each discrete timestep over a year. This target is beyond the current zero energy definitions, which focus on an annual balance of renewable supply and energy demand and use the grid to “store” excess production to make up for hours without sufficient on-site renewable generation. This paper expands this upgraded concept and outlines simple metrics to evaluate the alignment of renewable sources and storage with building loads. This process can provide insights on building design considerations, including the use of flexible loads and optimal resource management.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

STAND Quickstart Guide

STAND is a flexible web application designed to identify and examine potentially feasible sites where advanced nuclear facilities might be welcomed by host communities. STAND allows the user to explore and provide insight on socioeconomic, proximity, and safety data, generate county reports, review regulatory data, and complete a comparative analysis across multiple sites by following several paths, either individually or sequentially based on the user’s needs and where they are in the deployment process. STAND is best used for the contiguous United States. STAND is not a substitute for the in-depth studies required to qualify a site for hosting a nuclear facility, nor is it a substitute for the necessary community engagement to build trust and seek consent. It can, however, be a valuable resource to aid in the siting process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

STAND Quickstart Guide

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing Demand Flexibility with Buildings and FERC 2222

In 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a rule, Order 2222, that requires market operators to create pathways enabling distributed energy resource aggregators (DERAs) to compete in all regional organized wholesale electric markets. The goal is to encourage various forms of distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in electricity markets in a way that would enhance competition, encourage innovation, and drive down costs for consumers. In this document, we briefly discuss how FERC Order 2222 affects the opportunities for participation in electricity markets for building owners and operators, the role of aggregators, and the involvement of buildings in the electricity market.

demand flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. Typically fueled with natural gas, a CHP system combines a prime mover (such as a reciprocating engine) with a generator and heat recovery equipment, allowing operation at very high efficiencies (65–85%). Traditionally, CHP systems have been configured to serve local electrical and thermal loads at the sites where they are deployed. Units are sized to ensure a high capacity factor for the equipment, and the electricity generated tends to be used on site. CHP units in the United States already generate over 12% of the nation’s electricity. However, CHP’s potential benefits could be much greater if power generated could be used beyond the site, because the analysis was performed under the assumption that sites could use all the thermal output. Analysis of a few key sectors confirmed that this assumption is valid (for more information, see Appendix E). Those benefits could include improved grid reliability and resilience, as well as lower-cost options for providing energy and other grid services. The potential benefits also align well with grid modernization objectives, as shown in Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States., and greater electrification of loads, driven by carbon reduction priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solutal-buoyancy-driven intertwining and rotation of patterned elastic sheets

Abstract The intertwining of strands into 3D spirals is ubiquitous in biology, enabling functions from information storage to maintenance of cell structure and directed locomotion. In synthetic systems, entwined fibers can provide superior mechanical properties and act as artificial muscle or structural reinforcements. Unlike structures in nature, the entwinement of synthetic materials typically requires application of an external stimulus, such as mechanical actuation, light, or a magnetic field. Herein, we use computational modeling to design microscale sheets that mimic biology by transducing chemical energy into mechanical action, and thereby self-organize and interlink into 3D spirals, which spontaneously rotate. These flexible sheets are immersed in a fluid-filled microchamber that encompasses an immobilized patch of catalysts on the bottom wall. The sheets themselves can be passive or active (coated with catalyst). Catalytic reactions in the solution generate products that occupy different volumes than the reactants. The resulting density variations exert a force on the fluid (solutal buoyancy force) that causes motion, which in turn drives the interlinking and collective swirling of the sheets. The individual sheets do not rotate; rotation only occurs when the sheets are interlinked. This level of autonomous, coordinated 3D structural organization, intertwining, and rotation is unexpected in synthetic materials systems operating without external controls. Using physical arguments, we identify dimensionless ratios that are useful in scaling these ideas to other systems. These findings are valuable for creating materials that act as “machines”, and directing soft matter to undergo self-sustained, multistep assembly that is governed by intrinsic chemical reactions.

Manna, Raj Kumar (ORCID:0000000322729487)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radio Frequency Field Programable Gate Array Implementation of Reflectometry Cable Monitoring

PNNL has developed an innovative cable testing system that leverages the Xilinx RF System-on-Chip (RFSoC) technology to create a more flexible and capable measurement tool than traditional approaches. The architecture is designed on the ZCU111 development board and takes advantage of the high-speed digital to analog converters (DAC) and analog to digital converters (ADC) to generate and capture digitally synthesized waveforms. The platform allows engineers to easily adjust power, frequency, duration and modulation on the fly rather than being locked into fixed hardware configurations

Tedeschi, Jonathan [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2022

SolarPlus-Optimizer v0.1

With the falling costs of solar arrays and battery storage and reduced reliability of the grid due to natural disasters, small-scale local generation and storage resources are beginning to proliferate. However, very few software options exist for integrated control of building loads, batteries and other distributed energy resources. The available software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice, and are often incapable of operating independently of the grid during blackouts. In this software package, we present the "Solar+ Optimizer" (SPO), a control platform that provides demand flexibility, resiliency and reduced utility bills, built using open-source software. SPO employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) to produce real time optimal control strategies for the building loads and the distributed energy resources on site. SPO is designed to be vendor-agnostic, protocol-independent and resilient to loss of wide-area network connectivity. The software was evaluated in a real convenience store in northern California with on-site solar generation, battery storage and control of HVAC and commercial refrigeration loads. Preliminary tests showed price responsiveness of the building and cost savings of more than 10% in energy costs alone.

Prakash, AnandKrishnan↗