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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Energy burden aware and thermal resilience informed thermal energy storage system planning for disadvantaged communities

Disadvantaged communities often face a disproportionate energy burden because they need to allocate a higher percentage of their income to energy costs. More importantly, climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as heat waves and severe cold snaps, exacerbate these communities’ energy burdens. As a result, low- and medium-income communities are more likely to experience energy supply disruptions, increased health risks, and elevated energy bills because of inadequate thermal insulation and airtightness in their houses. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems, such as large-scale (community-level) geothermal energy storage and small-scale (building-level) phase change material (PCM)–based storage, have a great potential to improve building energy efficiency and to enhance thermal comfort, load shifting, and integration with renewable energy. The objective of this study is to optimally allocate building level PCM-based TES systems at the community level by considering energy equity and extreme weather effects. To this end, we developed an energy burden and thermal resilience–informed TES system planning framework, which includes three modules: (1) a community-level energy burden and thermal resilience assessment module, (2) building-level a TES system integration and assessment module, and (3) a community-level optimal planning module. Case studies were conducted on four disadvantaged communities in Montgomery and Shelby Counties in Tennessee with energy burdens >10% and with high percentages of people of color. The results indicate that this comprehensive planning framework can assist disadvantaged communities in reducing their energy burden and in bolstering their resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.

Shen, Zhenglai↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning–Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Extreme precipitation events, including those associated with weather fronts, have wide-ranging impacts across the world. Here we use a deep learning algorithm to identify weather fronts in high resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and evaluate the results using observational and reanalysis products. We further compare results between CESM simulations using present-day and future climate forcing, to study how these features might change with climate change. We find that detected front frequencies in CESM have seasonally varying spatial patterns and responses to climate change and are found to be associated with modeled changes in large scale circulation such as the jet stream. We also associate the detected fronts with precipitation and find that total and extreme frontal precipitation mostly decreases with climate change, with some seasonal and regional differences. Here, decreases in Northern Hemisphere summer frontal precipitation are largely driven by changes in the frequency of different front types, especially cold and stationary fronts. On the other hand, Northern Hemisphere winter exhibits some regional increases in frontal precipitation that are largely driven by changes in frontal precipitation intensity. While CONUS mean and extreme precipitation generally increase during all seasons in these climate change simulations, the likelihood of frontal extreme precipitation decreases, demonstrating that extreme precipitation has seasonally varying sources and mechanisms that will continue to evolve with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short-term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land-atmosphere-cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land-surface-induced bias and a cloud-induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land-surface-induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud-induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 3

Synthetic Input Data and Team Results for the GO Competition Challenge 3 for Events 1 - 4 and the Sandbox, along with problem and format descriptions and code to validate data and solutions, are available here. Data for industry scenarios will not be made public. The Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 3 focused on the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem. It is part of a continuing effort begun with Challenges 1 and 2, to successfully discover, develop, and test innovative and disruptive software solutions for critical energy challenges and to overcome existing barriers. The broader goal of the of the GO Competition is to accelerate the development of transformational and disruptive methods for solving problems related to the electric power grid and to provide a transparent, fair, and comprehensive evaluation of new solution methods. Challenge 3 used multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. In Event 4, whose submission window was August 31-September 4, 2023, 14 teams solved for the objective values of 669 scenarios (39 scenarios required solutions both with and without line switching being allowed). The 591 synthetic scenarios from 9 network models (3.6 GB) are available here. Ten teams were funded to participate and 7 won prizes totaling $2,400,000. The largest prize ($550,000) went to Mississippi State University. An additional $600,000 was awarded in Event 3 (6/15-16/2023). No prizes were awarded in Events 1 (1/25-27/2023) or 2 (4/13-14/2023). For more information on the competition and challenge see the "GO Competition Challenge 3 Information" resource below.

ACOPF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constrained power reference control for wind turbines

The cost of wind energy can be reduced by controlling the power reference of a turbine to increase energy capture, while maintaining load and generator speed constraints. We apply standard torque and pitch controllers to the direct inputs of the turbine and use their set points to change the power output and reduce generator speed and blade load transients. A power reference controller increases the power output when conditions are safe and decreases it when problematic transient events are expected. Transient generator speeds and blade loads are estimated using a gust measure derived from a wind speed estimate. A hybrid controller decreases the power rating from a maximum allowable power. Compared to a baseline controller, with a constant power reference, the proposed controller results in generator speeds and blade loads that do not exceed the original limits, increases tower fore-aft damage equivalent loads by 1%, and increases the annual energy production by 5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2021

Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island

As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.

Garren Kalter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme hydroclimates amplify the biophysical effects of advanced green-up in temperate China

Vegetation phenology modulates climate by altering energy and water exchange between the land and atmosphere. However, how extreme hydroclimatic conditions modify these phenology-climate feedbacks is still poorly understood. Here, in this study, we used a land–atmosphere-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the impacts of advanced green-up on air temperature under different hydroclimate conditions across temperate China and to Mechanistic analysis elucidate the underlying biophysical mechanisms. By imposing a 14-day earlier green-up in line with recent satellite observations, we found that under mean climate conditions, an earlier leaf-out induces immediate surface cooling of 0.14 °C during green-up and a lagging 0.02 °C warming during senescence averaged for temperate China. Extremely humid conditions amplify the cooling effects to 0.18 °C during green-up, extending this cooling into the senescence period. Conversely, under extremely arid conditions, earlier green-up cools air temperature by 0.09 °C, and amplified senescence warming to 0.16 °C. Mechanism analysis revealed that evapotranspiration-dominated non-radiative processes drive immediate cooling during green-up while radiation and circulation process dominates the delayed but opposite warming/cooling effects during senescence in extremely arid/humid hydroclimates. Given the projected continuation of warming trends and increased frequency of extreme climatic events, it is imperative to incorporate the biophysical effects of vegetation phenology into local climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiple Hail Impact Testing

For resilient energy delivery PV modules and systems must withstand extreme weather events such as hailstorms, which are the leading cause of PV insurance claims. Currently, the industry testing is limited to one strike at a time, but in real hailstorms multiple hail strikes can occur within a fraction of a second. In this project we test if multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous hail strikes cause more damage than with single hail strike testing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fluctuations in Jupiter’s Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation

The equatorial stratospheres of the Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn all exhibit a remarkable periodic oscillation of their temperatures and winds with height. Earth’s Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Saturn’s Quasi-Periodic Equatorial Oscillation (QPO) have recently been observed to experience disruptions in their vertical structure as a consequence of atmospheric events occurring far from the equator. Here we reveal that Jupiter’s Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) can also be perturbed by strong tropospheric activity at the equatorial and off-equatorial latitudes. Observations of Jupiter’s stratospheric temperatures between 1980 and 2011 show two significantly different periods for the QQO, with a 5.7-year period between 1980 and 1990 and a 3.9-year period between 1996 and 2006. Major disruptions to the predicted QQO pattern in 1992 and 2007 coincided with dramatic planetary-scale disturbances in the equatorial and low-latitude troposphere, suggesting that they are connected to vertically propagating waves generated by meteorological sources in the deeper troposphere (i.e. 500-4000 mbar pressures). Disruptions in Jupiter’s periodic oscillations are thus inherently different than those at Saturn or the Earth. This interconnectivity between the troposphere and stratosphere that is likely common to all planetary atmospheres shows that seemingly regular cycles of variability can switch between different modes when subjected to extreme meteorological events

Arrate Antunano↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

Intensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. Here, we show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop-climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal changes in the drivers of water physico-chemistry variability of a small freshwater tidal river

Where rivers meet the sea, tides can exert a physical and chemical influence on the lower reaches of a river. How tidal dynamics in these tidal river reaches interact with upstream hydrological drivers such as storm rainfall, which ultimately determines the quantity and composition of material transferred from watersheds to estuaries, is currently unknown. We monitored a small freshwater tidal river in the Pacific Northwest, USA in high resolution over one year to evaluate the relative importance of tides versus upstream hydrological flows (i.e., base flow and precipitation events) on basic physico-chemical parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, specific conductivity, and temperature), and how these interactions relate to the downstream estuary. Tidal variability and diurnal cycles (i.e. solar radiation) dominated water physico-chemical variability in the summer, but the influence of these drivers was overshadowed by storm-driven sharp pulses in river physico-chemistry during the remainder of the year. Within such events, we found incidences of counterclockwise hysteresis of pH, counterclockwise hysteresis of dissolved oxygen, and clockwise hysteresis of turbidity, although systematic trends were not observed across events. The dominance of storm rainfall in the river’s physico-chemistry dynamics, and similar pulses of decreased pH observed in adjacent estuarine waters, suggest that the linkage between tidal streams and the broader system is variable throughout the year. High-frequency monitoring of tidal river biogeochemistry is therefore crucial to enable the assessment of how the relative strength of these drivers may change with future sea level rise and altered precipitation patterns to modulate biogeochemical dynamics across the land-ocean-atmosphere continuum.

aquatic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain

Abstract Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists’ human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

ecosystem functioning↗