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DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projective embedding of dynamical systems: Uniform mean field equations

Herein we study embeddings of continuous dynamical systems in larger dimensions via projector operators. We call this technique PEDS, projective embedding of dynamical systems, as the stable fixed point of the original system dynamics are recovered via projection from the higher dimensional space. In this paper we provide a general definition and prove that for a particular type of rank-1 projector operator, the uniform mean field projector, the equations of motion become a mean field approximation of the dynamical system. While in general the embedding depends on a specified variable ordering, the same is not true for the uniform mean field projector. We prove a variety of results on the relationship between the spectrum of the Jacobian for fixed points in the original and in the embedded system. Direct applications of PEDS can be non-convex optimization and machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning the structure of wind: A data-driven nonlocal turbulence model for the atmospheric boundary layer

In this work, we develop a novel data-driven approach to modeling the atmospheric boundary layer. This approach leads to a nonlocal, anisotropic synthetic turbulence model which we refer to as the deep rapid distortion (DRD) model. Our approach relies on an operator regression problem that characterizes the best fitting candidate in a general family of nonlocal covariance kernels parameterized in part by a neural network. This family of covariance kernels is expressed in Fourier space and is obtained from approximate solutions to the Navier–Stokes equations at very high Reynolds numbers. Each member of the family incorporates important physical properties such as mass conservation and a realistic energy cascade. The DRD model can be calibrated with noisy data from field experiments. After calibration, the model can be used to generate synthetic turbulent velocity fields. To this end, we provide a new numerical method based on domain decomposition which delivers scalable, memory-efficient turbulence generation with the DRD model as well as others. We demonstrate the robustness of our approach with both filtered and noisy data coming from the 1968 Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratory Kansas experiments. Using these data, we witness exceptional accuracy with the DRD model, especially when compared to the International Electrotechnical Commission standard.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Computer Simulations to Optimize Biofuel Production

The DOE strives to ensure America's security and prosperity by addressing energy challenges. NREL shares this goal and tries to achieve a clean energy world. Fossil fuels are problematic for both organizations. Using them endangers American security. Their supply is finite and burning them causes environmental damage. Biofuels are a good alternative to fossil fuels. They are renewably produced on American soil and can lower greenhouse gas emissions. Also, cars and planes need no costly mechanical adjustments to use biofuels. However, the fuels themselves are expensive. For my SULI project, I reduced the cost of biofuels by optimizing the production process through computer simulations. Existing simulations were accurate but slow. One simulation takes up to eight hours, and researchers must do hundreds. My solution reduces the computing time. I treated the biomass particles in the simulation as one-dimensional. That simplified the simulation equations, making them easier for the computer to solve. Still, biomass particles are three-dimensional. The 1D assumption was wrong and produced inaccurate results. To maintain accuracy while increasing speed, I developed a method to convert 1D simulation results into usable 3D data. I adjusted the 1D simulation until the output matched the 3D results for a specific environment. I found out how much the simulation changed when the environment changed. Machine learning algorithms defined a relationship between 1D and 3D data for all environments. This lets scientists convert fast 1D simulation results into valid 3D data.

1D↗

DOE OSTI2025

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

NASA NTRS1995

Object-oriented approach for gas turbine engine simulation

An object-oriented gas turbine engine simulation program was developed. This program is a prototype for a more complete, commercial grade engine performance program now being proposed as part of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulator (NPSS). This report discusses architectural issues of this complex software system and the lessons learned from developing the prototype code. The prototype code is a fully functional, general purpose engine simulation program, however, only the component models necessary to model a transient compressor test rig have been written. The production system will be capable of steady state and transient modeling of almost any turbine engine configuration. Chief among the architectural considerations for this code was the framework in which the various software modules will interact. These modules include the equation solver, simulation code, data model, event handler, and user interface. Also documented in this report is the component based design of the simulation module and the inter-component communication paradigm. Object class hierarchies for some of the code modules are given.

Curlett, Brian P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of Using Fourier Neural Operators for 3D Elastic Seismic Simulations

Seismic simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models are important in many of the seismological applications related to our lab’s mission, however, accurate high-fidelity simulations are computationally costly. We investigated the capabilities of the newly developed Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to solve the 3D elastic wave equations for seismic simulations. We generated simulation data for training the FNO model, and analyzed its performance on various test cases, such as the performance with different number of training data, different resolutions, and on more canonical structures. We found the FNO model can reproduce 3D seismic simulations with high accuracy and ~169 times faster on a small spatial grid size of 16 x 16 x16. When applied on higher resolution data, we found that transfer learning with fine-tuning on a small amount of data achieves reasonable results. This feasibility study showed promising results for using FNO’s for 3D seismic simulations and represents the foundation of further research to develop this into a more mature approach for different seismological applications. The potential impact of this project will provide techniques for large-scale or real-time applications of solving PEDs in support of national lab’s programs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Direct-drive inertial confinement fusion: A review

In this study, the direct-drive, laser-based approach to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is reviewed from its inception following the demonstration of the first laser to its implementation on the present generation of high-power lasers. The review focuses on the evolution of scientific understanding gained from target-physics experiments in many areas, identifying problems that were demonstrated and the solutions implemented. The review starts with the basic understanding of laser–plasma interactions that was obtained before the declassification of laser-induced compression in the early 1970s and continues with the compression experiments using infrared lasers in the late 1970s that produced thermonuclear neutrons. The problem of suprathermal electrons and the target preheat that they caused, associated with the infrared laser wavelength, led to lasers being built after 1980 to operate at shorter wavelengths, especially 0.35 um—the third harmonic of the Nd:glass laser—and 0.248 um (the KrF gas laser). The main physics areas relevant to direct drive are reviewed. The primary absorption mechanism at short wavelengths is classical inverse bremsstrahlung. Nonuniformities imprinted on the target by laser irradiation have been addressed by the development of a number of beam-smoothing techniques and imprint-mitigation strategies. The effects of hydrodynamic instabilities are mitigated by a combination of imprint reduction and target designs that minimize the instability growth rates. Several coronal plasma physics processes are reviewed. The two-plasmon–decay instability, stimulated Brillouin scattering (together with cross-beam energy transfer), and (possibly) stimulated Raman scattering are identified as potential concerns, placing constraints on the laser intensities used in target designs, while other processes (self-focusing and filamentation, the parametric decay instability, and magnetic fields), once considered important, are now of lesser concern for mainline direct-drive target concepts. Filamentation is largely suppressed by beam smoothing. Thermal transport modeling, important to the interpretation of experiments and to target design, has been found to be non-local in nature. Advances in shock timing and equation-of-state measurements relevant to direct-drive ICF are reported. Room-temperature implosions have provided an increased understanding of the importance of stability and uniformity. The evolution of cryogenic implosion capabilities, leading to an extensive series carried out on the 60-beam OMEGA laser [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)], is reviewed together with major advances in cryogenic target formation. A polar-drive concept has been developed that will enable direct-drive–ignition experiments to be performed on the National Ignition Facility [C. A. Haynam et al., Appl. Opt. 46 (16), 3276 (2007)]. The advantages offered by the alternative approaches of fast ignition and shock ignition and the issues associated with these concepts are described. The lessons learned from target-physics and implosion experiments are taken into account in ignition and high-gain target designs for laser wavelengths of 1/3 μm and 1/4 μm. Substantial advances in direct-drive inertial fusion reactor concepts are reviewed. Overall, the progress in scientific understanding over the past five decades has been enormous, to the point that inertial fusion energy using direct drive shows significant promise as a future environmentally attractive energy source.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

From Cosmological Observations to Fundamental Interactions (Final Report)

This research has focused on exploring how to learn about what happened at the beginning of the universe and about the fundamental laws of physics from cosmological observations. In particular, it has focused on understanding the possible observable consequence of the theory of inflation, which is an epoch of extremely rapid expansion that is supposed to have happened at the very beginning of the universe. Additionally, it has explored how to describe the clustering of galaxies at the longest distances in the universe, using simple equations that can be solved with simple calculus methods. These provide a useful tool to imagine to evolve the universe backwards and understand what were the initial conditions from which it started.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Making Invisible Visible: Data-Driven Seismic Inversion With Spatio-Temporally Constrained Data Augmentation

Deep learning and data-driven approaches have shown great potential in scientific domains. The promise of data-driven techniques relies on the availability of a large volume of high-quality training datasets. Due to the high cost of obtaining data through expensive physical experiments, instruments, and simulations, data augmentation techniques for scientific applications have emerged as a new direction for obtaining scientific data recently. However, existing data augmentation techniques originating from computer vision yield physically unacceptable data samples that are not helpful for the domain problems that we are interested in. In this article, we develop new data augmentation techniques based on convolutional neural networks. Specifically, our generative models leverage different physics knowledge (such as governing equations, observable perception, and physics phenomena) to improve the quality of the synthetic data. To validate the effectiveness of our data augmentation techniques, we apply them to solve a subsurface seismic full-waveform inversion using simulated CO 2 leakage data. Our interest is to invert for subsurface velocity models associated with very small CO 2 leakage. We validate the performance of our methods using comprehensive numerical tests. Here via comparison and analysis, we show that data-driven seismic imaging can be significantly enhanced by using our data augmentation techniques. Particularly, the imaging quality has been improved by 15% in test scenarios of general-sized leakage and 17% in small-sized leakage when using an augmented training set obtained with our techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

PYSEQM

PYSEQM is a package for performing semi-empirical quantum mechanical (SEQM) simulations on molecular systems utilizing PyTorch. SEQM simulations determine molecular properties (energy, electron density, dipole moment, ect.) by solving an approximate Schrödinger equation for the motions of electrons in a molecule. The use of PyTorch provides three specific advantages. First, it allows the calculations to be offloaded to GPU accelerators, giving an order of magnitude increase in speed. Second, back propagation is used to get atomic forces (derivative of the total energy with respect to atomic position) at the same computational cost as the energy calculation itself. Finally, the use of PyTorch makes for a natural interface to modern machine learning methods, which can be used to adjust the semi-empirical parameters build into SEQM methods. Additionally, PYSEQM implements various other optimizations for performing quantum mechanics based molecular dynamics, including SP2 for rapid GPU based solution of the self-consistent field algorithm, and the extended Lagrangian method for rapid QM-MD.

Nebgen, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Multi-Zone Liquid Thrust Chamber Performance Code with Domain Decomposition for Parallel Processing

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has considerably evolved in the last decade. There are many computer programs that can perform computations on viscous internal or external flows with chemical reactions. CFD has become a commonly used tool in the design and analysis of gas turbines, ramjet combustors, turbo-machinery, inlet ducts, rocket engines, jet interaction, missile, and ramjet nozzles. One of the problems of interest to NASA has always been the performance prediction for rocket and air-breathing engines. Due to the complexity of flow in these engines it is necessary to resolve the flowfield into a fine mesh to capture quantities like turbulence and heat transfer. However, calculation on a high-resolution grid is associated with a prohibitively increasing computational time that can downgrade the value of the CFD for practical engineering calculations. The Liquid Thrust Chamber Performance (LTCP) code was developed for NASA/MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) to perform liquid rocket engine performance calculations. This code is a 2D/axisymmetric full Navier-Stokes (NS) solver with fully coupled finite rate chemistry and Eulerian treatment of liquid fuel and/or oxidizer droplets. One of the advantages of this code has been the resemblance of its input file to the JANNAF (Joint Army Navy NASA Air Force Interagency Propulsion Committee) standard TDK code, and its automatic grid generation for JANNAF defined combustion chamber wall geometry. These options minimize the learning effort for TDK users, and make the code a good candidate for performing engineering calculations. Although the LTCP code was developed for liquid rocket engines, it is a general-purpose code and has been used for solving many engineering problems. However, the single zone formulation of the LTCP has limited the code to be applicable to problems with complex geometry. Furthermore, the computational time becomes prohibitively large for high-resolution problems with chemistry, two-equation turbulence model, and two-phase flow. To overcome these limitations, the LTCP code is rewritten to include the multi-zone capability with domain decomposition that makes it suitable for parallel processing, i.e., enabling the code to run every zone or sub-domain on a separate processor. This can reduce the run time by a factor of 6 to 8, depending on the problem.

Homayun K. Navaz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Breathing Cartridge (IBC)

The Fire Cartridge (FC) is designed to work with the Emergency Mask (EM) to protect the crew by cleaning the inhaled air in a post fire environment. The Improved Breathing Cartridge (IBC) is designed as a next generation FC with the lessons learned from years of building and testing the FC design, as well as novel catalyst materials to improve the performance and robustness of the cartridge. The FC was designed with minimal margin to save on mass, while the IBC was sized to have over 100% excess catalyst to achieve the required conversion, and still reduce the production cost. Kinetic data taken from another project was used to size the catalyst bed from the standard plug flow reactor conversion equation. The cartridge has been 3D printed and will soon be filled with the required levels of media. Testing has not yet been performed to determine final performance.

Fire Response↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗