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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

High-Performance Integrated Window and Façade Solutions for California

The researchers developed a new generation of high-performance façade systems and supporting design and management tools to support industry in meeting California’s greenhouse gas reduction targets, reduce energy consumption, and enable an adaptable response to minimize real-time demands on the electricity grid. The project resulted in five outcomes: (1) The research team developed an R-5, 1-inch thick, triplepane, insulating glass unit with a novel low-conductance aluminum frame. This technology can help significantly reduce residential cooling and heating loads, particularly during the evening. (2) The team developed a prototype of a windowintegrated local ventilation and energy recovery device that provides clean, dry fresh air through the façade with minimal energy requirements. (3) A daylight-redirecting louver system was prototyped to redirect sunlight 15–40 feet from the window. Simulations estimated that lighting energy use could be reduced by 35–54 percent without glare. (4) A control system incorporating physics-based equations and a mathematical solver was prototyped and field tested to demonstrate feasibility. Simulations estimated that total electricity costs could be reduced by 9-28 percent on sunny summer days through adaptive control of operable shading and daylighting components and the thermostat compared to state-of-the-art automatic façade controls in commercial building perimeter zones. (5) Supporting models and tools needed by industry for technology R&D and market transformation activities were validated. Attaining California’s clean energy goals require making a fundamental shift from today’s ad-hoc assemblages of static components to turnkey, intelligent, responsive, integrated building façade systems. These systems offered significant reductions in energy use, peak demand, and operating cost in California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of Vertical Ground Motions and Their Effect on the Seismic Response of Bridges in the Near-Field: A State-of-the-Art Review

Despite the evidence from past earthquakes and several numerical investigations demonstrating the detrimental impact of vertical ground motions (VGMs) on the integrity of bridge structures, incorporating their effects into seismic assessment and design procedures has traditionally been given limited consideration. Current codes utilize rather simplistic approaches to account for the concurrent effects of vertical and horizontal motions in structural performance evaluations, potentially leading to unconservative estimates of structural demands. This paper reviews the main features of VGMs and their effect on the seismic response of bridges. The methods and empirical models available to estimate vertical motions for design purposes are discussed, and research gaps and related research needs are identified. Finally, the emerging role of physics-based ground-motion simulations, as well as their limitations, in supporting future research and informing the development of simplified design procedures is examined. The main areas of interest for future research are identified in the need to carry out systematic sensitivity studies to gain insight into the main earthquake parameters that influence key VGMs features, understand the influence of soil nonlinearities on VGMs amplitude and frequency content, inform the development of empirical models that cover a range of site conditions and source-to-site distances where current models are poorly constrained, generate arrays of motions to update coherency models to properly inform the analysis of distributed infrastructure, investigate the impulsive character of VGMs, and assess the approximations made in estimating VGMs with 1D site response analyses. Furthermore, specific focus is laid on large-magnitude earthquakes in the near-field.

Asynchronous ground motion↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-run Marginal Emission Rates for Electricity - Workbooks for 2021 Cambium Data

These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. The LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. It incorporates both the projected changes to the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treats grid assets as fixed. The Levelized LRMER worksheet within each workbook is set up to produce a levelized long-run marginal emission rate based on user-provided inputs. These levelized LRMER values are intended for analysts to use when estimating the emissions induced (or avoided) by a long-term change in end-use electricity demand. There are two workbooks that supply the data at two different geographic resolutions: states and GEA regions (20 regions that are similar to, but not exactly the same as, the US EPA's eGRID regions). For more data underlying these emissions factors, see the Cambium 2021 project at https://cambium.nrel.gov/. For more details on the inputs into the scenarios available in the workbooks, see the Standard Scenarios 2021 Report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80641.pdf). This data was produced as part of the Cambium project. For more details about the methodology, see the Cambium Documentation: Version 2021 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81611.pdf). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated reaction kinetics and network exploration (Arkane): A statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, transition state theory, and master equation software

The open-source statistical mechanics software described here, Arkane–Automated Reaction Kinetics and Network Exploration–facilitates computations of thermodynamic properties of chemical species, high-pressure limit reaction rate coefficients, and pressure-dependent rate coefficient over multi-well molecular potential energy surfaces (PES) including the effects of collisional energy transfer on phenomenological kinetics. Arkane can use estimates to fill in information for molecules or reactions where quantum chemistry information is missing. The software solves the internal energy master equation for complex unimolecular reaction systems. Inputs to the software include converged electronic structure computations performed by the user using a variety of supported software packages (Gaussian, Molpro, Orca, TeraChem, Q-Chem, Psi4). The software outputs high-pressure limit rate coefficients and pressure-dependent phenomenological rate coefficients, as well as computed thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy, and constant pressure heat capacity) with added energy corrections. Some of the key features of Arkane include treatment of 1D, 2D or ND hindered internal rotation modes, treatment of free internal rotation modes, quantum tunneling effect consideration, transition state theory (TST) and Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus (RRKM) rate coefficient computations, master equation solution with four implemented methods, inverse-Laplace transform of high-pressure limit rate coefficients into the energy domain, energy corrections based on bond-additivity or isodesmic reactions, automated and efficient PES exploration, and PES sensitivity analysis. The present work describes the design of Arkane, how it should be used, and refers to the theory that it employs. Arkane is distributed via the RMG-Py software suite (https://github.com/ReactionMechanismGenerator/RMG-Py).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transactive Electric Water Heater Agent: Design and Performance Evaluation

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are usually equipped with inbuilt thermostats to measure water temperature near the installed positions. Most of the existing EWHs have only two thermostats and often do not have water flow sensor installed. Estimation of state of heat energy (SOHE) inside the hot water tank, which is crucial for efficient control and operation of the EWH, under such imperfect system conditions is very challenging. This paper, therefore, designs a transactive EWH agent (TEWHA) to better estimate SOHE in presence of measurement errors and imperfect system knowledge. The TEWHA, built-in Python, approximates the EWH physics using limited measurements obtained from the ground truth GridLABD model. The performance of the TEWHA is validated against ground truth system for three scenarios: a) ideal condition where TEWHA has complete knowledge of the system, b) imperfect condition where TEWHA has incomplete system information, and c) noised condition where TEWHA measurements contain random errors. Finally, an optimization problem is formulated and solved to demonstrate how TEWHA could use the estimated and measured parameters for a transactive control of EWH. Index Terms—Demand flexibility

demand flexibility, distribution system, electric ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Potential from the Bulk Grid Perspective

Gain insight from an exploration of the potential value of demand response (DR) in future power systems. Using hourly DR resource estimates by sub-sector, electrical end-use, and grid service, we incorporate virtual generator models of DR resources into large-scale production cost models, and analyze the grid-level impacts in terms of the ability of DR to reduce system costs and potentially help integrate renewables or reduce system emissions. Additionally, we examine the value of DR, its revenue, and how these change under different system conditions. In this panel session, we will describe our input data and modeling methods, provide an overview of the production cost models used, and summarize key results from analyses in Florida and the western United States. Findings include variations in DR value by end-use and geography, an ability to increase economic PV deployment potential in high penetration systems, and mixed emissions outcomes depending on system composition and fuel prices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grid-Forming Control Using TAPAS Software Defined Inverters

Here, this paper discusses the design and hardware implementation aspects of state-feedback primary control for grid forming inverters. The primary control consists of two tracking control laws: voltage tracking and frequency/angle tracking. The voltage tracking control requires voltage and current at the inverter's switch terminal (i.e. before the filter). The fundamental component of switch terminal voltage is estimated using the inverter's average model while the switch terminal current is estimated using an observer, thus obviating the need for sensors at the switch terminals. The measurements of frequency and angle(s) needed for frequency/angle tracking are noisy due to measurement noises and inherent delays in the phase locked loop (PLL). Conditioning of these feedback signals is discussed in detail, and the corresponding changes in the control design are provided to better attenuate the impact of noises. Effectiveness of the proposed design and implementation is demonstrated by the implementation results from TAPAS software defined inverter (SDI).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗