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At least 847 records · Page 47

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Offshore Wind Energy Basics: Navigating Offshore Wind Energy Decision-Making Processes [Slides]

This webinar will provide a high-level summary of decision-making processes for siting and permitting, with a focus on the points at which local stakeholders can meaningfully engage in these processes. It will differentiate itself from other offshore wind webinars by presenting information relevant to a national audience (i.e., it will not be state specific) that helps stakeholders to "connect the dots" across agencies and processes. It will provide neutral, fact-based information from NREL staff, as well as from relevant staff at the federal, state, and local levels. This webinar will provide a helpful foundation for webinar #3 in this series, which will highlight opportunities for community engagement in the offshore wind development process more broadly, including but not limited to the regulatory processes covered in this webinar.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 542: Disposal Holes, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0, with ROTC 1-2

The purpose of this Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation for closure of CAU 542 with no further corrective action. To achieve this, corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from July 19 through August 25, 2006, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 542: Disposal Holes. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill the following data needs as defined during the data quality objective (DQO) process: Determine whether contaminants of concern (COCs) are present. If COCs are present, determine the nature and extent. Provide sufficient information and data to complete appropriate corrective actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Digital Engineering and Cybersecurity Decision Analysis in Early Phases of SMR-Driven IES Projects

Considerable efforts are underway to ensure cybersecurity is integrated into the systems engineering lifecycle. Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are intended to identify and engineer out cybersecurity risks throughout the lifecycle. While these approaches are valuable for promoting the need to include cybersecurity considerations in early design phases to create more secure systems, they may not consider the entirety of digital risks. Digital risks in a digital instrumentation and control system include adversarial and unintentional risks from internal and external factors, such as human performance errors, design flaws, environmental conditions, and equipment degradation or failure. This report provides a detailed discussion on digital risk prior to describing the background and concept of operations for a small modular reactor-driven integrated energy system connected to industrial applications. The challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements are discussed and the impacts on digital engineering, security considerations, and interdependencies are evaluated for mission-level, facility-level, and system-level decisions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Decision Level Fusion: An Event Driven Approach

This study presents a technique that combines the occurrence of certain events, as observed by different sensors, in order to detect and classify objects. This technique explores the extent of dependence between features being observed by the sensors, and generates more informed probability distributions over the events. Provided some additional information about the features of the object, this fusion technique can outperform other existing decision level fusion approaches that may not take into account the relationship between different features.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Karen Immigrant Students on Teachers’ Instructional Decisions in the Rural United States

Across the United States, the number of classrooms welcoming young students who are new English language learners (ELL) is rapidly growing. Motivated by a dramatic increase in the number of Myanmar- and Burma-originating immigrants now attending English-speaking schools in the rural, upper midwestern United States, this study systematically considers how the presence of Karen immigrant students impacts the instructional decisions that K-12 classroom teachers make using an exploratory case study method. Several recurrent themes emerged, and findings can be used to help better prepare both pre-service and in-service teachers to meet the needs of their ELL students, as well as policy makers. These emergent themes include the following: (a) authentic teacher–family relationships are key; (b) visual/hands-on learning and the use of technology enhance student achievement; (c) student work must be completed during the school day in classrooms; (d) teachers’ purposeful use of parallel language is critical for learning; (e) rigor can be maintained, although quantity is often adjusted; and (f) targeted ESL/cultural training for pre-service and newly hired teachers is positively influential. Such informed training often seems to help teachers learn key cultural distinctions and become better able to identify the most effective ways to meet the needs of students.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗

Decision Tree Regression to Identify Representative Road Sections for Evaluating Performance of Connected and Automated Class 8 Tractors

Currently, connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology is being developed for Class 8 tractor trucks aimed at improved safety and fuel economy and reduced CO2 emissions. Despite extensive efforts conducted across the world, the reported efficiency gains were varied from different research groups, raising concerns about the fidelity of models, the performance of control, and the effectiveness of the experimental validation. One root cause for this variation stems from the fact that the efficiency gain obtained from the CAV is sensitive to real-world conditions, including surrounding traffic and road grade. This study presents an approach aimed at identifying representative public road sections and facilitating CAV research from this perspective. By employing the decision tree regression (DTR) method to the Fleet DNA database, the most representative road sections can be identified. High-level metrics and detailed information of the derived road sections are also illustrated and discussed, which demonstrate their representativeness and the effectiveness of the approach. Meanwhile, the capability of this approach can be easily extended by integrating specific constraints into the DTR algorithm. As an example, a specific representative road section with an aggressive road grade profile was also provided via this approach.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance - A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

This paper proposes the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to address the issue of identifying and selecting essential information for inclusion into a biosurveillance system or process. Additionally, we developed a decision support framework that can facilitate identifying data streams for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and demonstrated utility by applying the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an global infectious disease surveillance system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗