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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
NASA NTRS1993

Kurtosis, skewness, and non-Gaussian cosmological density perturbations

Cosmological topological defects as well as some nonstandard inflation models can give rise to non-Gaussian density perturbations. Skewness and kurtosis are the third and fourth moments that measure the deviation of a distribution from a Gaussian. Measurement of these moments for the cosmological density field and for the microwave background temperature anisotropy can provide a test of the Gaussian nature of the primordial fluctuation spectrum. In the case of the density field, the importance of measuring the kurtosis is stressed since it will be preserved through the weakly nonlinear gravitational evolution epoch. Current constraints on skewness and kurtosis of primeval perturbations are obtained from the observed density contrast on small scales and from recent COBE observations of temperature anisotropies on large scales. It is also shown how, in principle, future microwave anisotropy experiments might be able to reveal the initial skewness and kurtosis. It is shown that present data argue that if the initial spectrum is adiabatic, then it is probably Gaussian, but non-Gaussian isocurvature fluctuations are still allowed, and these are what topological defects provide.

Luo, Xiaochun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fast radio burst dispersion measure distribution as a probe of helium reionization

Fast radio burst (FRB) discoveries are occurring rapidly, with thousands expected from upcoming surveys. The dispersion measures (DM) observed for FRB include important information on cosmological distances and the ionization state of the universe from the redshift of emission until today. Rather than considering the DM–redshift relation, we investigate the statistical ensemble of the distribution of dispersion measures. Here, we explore the use of this abundance information, with and without redshift information, to probe helium reionization through simulated data to redshift z = 6. Carrying out Monte Carlo simulations of FRB survey samples, we examine the effect of different source redshift distributions, host galaxy models, sudden vs gradual reionization, and covariance with cosmological parameters on determination of helium reionization properties. We find that a fluence limited survey with 10 4 FRBs can discriminate different helium reionization histories at ~6σ using the DM-distribution of bursts, without redshift information (and ~10σ with redshifts).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Map-Based Noise Simulations for DR6

The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ≥ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code, mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

CMBR experiments↗
NASA NTRS2011

Propulsion Physics Under the Changing Density Field Model

To grow as a space faring race, future spaceflight systems will requires new propulsion physics. Specifically a propulsion physics model that does not require mass ejection without limiting the high thrust necessary to accelerate within or beyond our solar system and return within a normal work period or lifetime. In 2004 Khoury and Weltman produced a density dependent cosmology theory they called Chameleon Cosmology, as at its nature, it is hidden within known physics. This theory represents a scalar field within and about an object, even in the vacuum. Whereby, these scalar fields can be viewed as vacuum energy fields with definable densities that permeate all matter; having implications to dark matter/energy with universe acceleration properties; implying a new force mechanism for propulsion physics. Using Chameleon Cosmology, the author has developed a new propulsion physics model, called the Changing Density Field (CDF) Model. This model relates to density changes in these density fields, where the density field density changes are related to the acceleration of matter within an object. These density changes in turn change how an object couples to the surrounding density fields. Whereby, thrust is achieved by causing a differential in the coupling to these density fields about an object. Since the model indicates that the density of the density field in an object can be changed by internal mass acceleration, even without exhausting mass, the CDF model implies a new propellant-less propulsion physics model

Robertson, Glen A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Probabilistic Autoencoder for Type Ia Supernova Spectral Time Series

We construct a physically parameterized probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) to learn the intrinsic diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from a sparse set of spectral time series. The PAE is a two-stage generative model, composed of an autoencoder that is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. We demonstrate that the PAE learns a low-dimensional latent space that captures the nonlinear range of features that exists within the population and can accurately model the spectral evolution of SNe Ia across the full range of wavelength and observation times directly from the data. By introducing a correlation penalty term and multistage training setup alongside our physically parameterized network, we show that intrinsic and extrinsic modes of variability can be separated during training, removing the need for the additional models to perform magnitude standardization. We then use our PAE in a number of downstream tasks on SNe Ia for increasingly precise cosmological analyses, including the automatic detection of SN outliers, the generation of samples consistent with the data distribution, and solving the inverse problem in the presence of noisy and incomplete data to constrain cosmological distance measurements. We find that the optimal number of intrinsic model parameters appears to be three, in line with previous studies, and show that we can standardize our test sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.091 ± 0.010 mag, which corresponds to 0.074 ± 0.010 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bending of Light in Modified Gravity at Large Distances

We discuss the bending of light in a recent model for gravity at large distances containing a Rindler type acceleration proposed by Grumiller. We consider the static, spherically symmetric metric with cosmological constant and Rindler-like term 2ar presented in this model, and we use the procedure by Rindler and Ishak. to obtain the bending angle of light in this metric. Earlier work on light bending in this model by Carloni, Grumiller, and Preis, using the method normally employed for asymptotically flat space-times, led to a conflicting result (caused by the Rindler-like term in the metric) of a bending angle that increases with the distance of closest approach r(sub 0) of the light ray from the centrally concentrated spherically symmetric matter distribution. However, when using the alternative approach for light bending in nonasymptotically flat space-times, we show that the linear Rindler-like term produces a small correction to the general relativistic result that is inversely proportional to r(sub 0). This will in turn affect the bounds on Rindler acceleration obtained earlier from light bending and casts doubts on the nature of the linear term 2ar in the metric

Grumiller↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: map-based noise simulations for DR6

Abstract The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ∼ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code,mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using elliptical galaxy kinematics to compare the strength of gravity in cosmological regions of differing gravitational potential – a first look

ABSTRACT Various models of modified gravity invoke ‘screening’ mechanisms that are sensitive to the value of the local gravitational potential. This could have observable consequences for galaxies. These consequences might be seen by comparing two proxies for galaxy mass – their luminosity and their internal kinematics – as a function of local galaxy density. Motivated by this prospect, we have compared the observed properties of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) inside and outside of voids in the cosmic large scale structure. We used archival measurements of line widths, luminosities, redshifts, colours, and positions of galaxies in conjunction with recent void catalogues to construct comparison LRG samples inside and outside of voids. We fitted these two samples to the well-established fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies to constrain any differences between the inferred value of the Newtonian gravitational constant G for the two samples. We obtained a null result, with an upper limit on any fractional difference in G within and outside of cosmological voids to be α = δG/G ∼ 40 per cent. This upper bound is dominated by the small-number statistics of our N ∼ 100 within-void LRG sample. With the caveat that environmental effects could influence various parameters such as star formation, we estimate that a 1 per cent statistical limit on α could be attained with data from 105 elliptical galaxies within voids. This is within the reach of future photometric and spectroscopic surveys, both of which are required to pursue this method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-tracer intensity mapping: cross-correlations, line noise & decorrelation

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is a rapidly emerging technique for constraining cosmology and galaxy formation using multi-frequency, low angular resolution maps. Many LIM applications crucially rely on cross-correlations of two line intensity maps, or of intensity maps with galaxy surveys or galaxy/CMB lensing. We present a consistent halo model to predict all these cross-correlations and enable joint analyses, in 3D redshift-space and for 2D projected maps. We extend the conditional luminosity function formalism to the multi-line case, to consistently account for correlated scatter between multiple galaxy line luminosities. This allows us to model the scale-dependent decorrelation between two line intensity maps, a key input for foreground rejection and for approaches that estimate auto-spectra from cross-spectra. This also enables LIM cross-correlations to reveal astrophysical properties of the interstellar medium inacessible with LIM auto-spectra. We expose the different sources of luminosity scatter or "line noise" in LIM, and clarify their effects on the 1-halo and galaxy shot noise terms. In particular, we show that the effective number density of halos can in some cases exceed that of galaxies, counterintuitively. Using observational and simulation input, we implement this halo model for the Hα, [Oiii], Lyman-α, CO and [Cii] lines. Here, we encourage observers and simulators to measure galaxy luminosity correlation coefficients for pairs of lines whenever possible. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/HaloGen/tree/LIM. In a companion paper, we use this halo model formalism and code to highlight the degeneracies between cosmology and astrophysics in LIM, and to compare the LIM observables to galaxy detection for a number of surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy cluster profiles: a Gaussian mixture model approach to halo miscentering

Measurements of the galaxy density and weak-lensing profiles of galaxy clusters typically rely on an assumed cluster center, which is taken to be the brightest cluster galaxy or other proxies for the true halo center defined as the minimum in the potential well. Departure of the assumed cluster center from the true halo center bias the resultant profile measurements, an effect known as miscentering bias. Currently, miscentering is typically modeled in stacked profiles of clusters with a two parameter model. We use an alternate approach in which the profiles of individual clusters are used with the corresponding likelihood computed using a Gaussian mixture model. We test the approach using halos and the corresponding subhalo profiles from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulations. We obtain significantly improved estimates of the miscentering parameters for both 3D and projected 2D profiles relevant for imaging surveys. We discuss applications to upcoming cosmological surveys. Our Python package for the Gaussian mixture model is publicly available at https://github.com/KyleMiller1/Halo-Miscentering-Mixture-Model.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid SO(10) Axion Model without Quality Problem

Invisible axion models that solve the strong C P problem via the Peccei-Quinn (PQ) mechanism typically have a quality problem that arises from quantum gravity effects which violate all global symmetries. These models therefore require extreme fine-tuning of parameters for consistency. We present a new solution to the quality problem in a unified SO ( 10 ) × U ( 1 ) a gauge model, where U ( 1 ) a is an anomaly free axial gauge symmetry. PQ symmetry emerges as an accidental symmetry in this setup, which admits a PQ breaking scale as large as 7 × 10 11 GeV , allowing for the axion to be the cosmological dark matter. We call this a hybrid axion model due to its unique feature that it interpolates between the popular KSVZ and DFSZ axion models. Its predictions for the experimentally measurable axion couplings to the nucleon and electron are distinct from those of the usual models, a feature that can be used to test it. Furthermore, the model has no domain wall problem and it provides a realistic and predictive framework for fermion masses and mixings. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Babu, K. S. (ORCID:0000000161475155)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A classical, non-singular, bouncing universe

We present a model for a classical, non-singular bouncing cosmology without violation of the null energy condition (NEC). The field content is General Relativity plus a real scalar field with a canonical kinetic term and only renormalizable, polynomial-type self-interactions for the scalar field in the Jordan frame. The universe begins vacuum-energy dominated and is contracting at t=-∞. We consider a closed universe with a positive spatial curvature, which is responsible for the universe bouncing without any NEC violation. An Rφ 2 coupling between the Ricci scalar and the scalar field drives the scalar field from the initial false vacuum to the true vacuum during the bounce. The model is sub-Planckian throughout its evolution and every dimensionful parameter is below the effective-field-theory scale M P , so we expect no ghost-type or tachyonic instabilities. This model solves the horizon problem and extends co-moving particle geodesics to past infinity, resulting in a geodesically complete universe without singularities. We solve the Friedman equations and the scalar-field equation of motion numerically, and analytically under certain approximations.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The SAGA Survey. V. Modeling Satellite Systems around Milky Way–Mass Galaxies with Updated UniverseMachine

Abstract Environment plays a critical role in shaping the assembly of low-mass galaxies. Here, we use the U niverse M achine (UM) galaxy–halo connection framework and Data Release 3 of the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey to place dwarf galaxy star formation and quenching into a cosmological context. UM is a data-driven forward model that flexibly parameterizes galaxy star formation rates (SFRs) using only halo mass and assembly history. We add a new quenching model to UM, tailored for galaxies with m ⋆ ≲ 10 9 M ⊙ , and constrain the model down to m ⋆ ≳ 10 7 M ⊙ using new SAGA observations of 101 satellite systems around Milky Way (MW)–mass hosts and a sample of isolated field galaxies in a similar mass range from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The new best-fit model, “UM-SAGA,” reproduces the satellite stellar mass functions, average SFRs, and quenched fractions in SAGA satellites while keeping isolated dwarfs mostly star-forming. The enhanced quenching in satellites relative to isolated field galaxies leads the model to maximally rely on halo assembly to explain the observed environmental quenching. Extrapolating the model down to m ⋆ ∼ 10 6.5 M ⊙ yields a quenched fraction of ≳30% for isolated field galaxies and ≳80% for satellites of MW-mass hosts at this stellar mass. Spectroscopic surveys can soon test this specific prediction to reveal the relative importance of internal feedback, cessation of mass and gas accretion, satellite-specific gas processes, and reionization for the evolution of faint low-mass galaxies.

Wang, Yunchong (ORCID:000000018913626X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time delay lens modelling challenge

ABSTRACT In recent years, breakthroughs in methods and data have enabled gravitational time delays to emerge as a very powerful tool to measure the Hubble constant H0. However, published state-of-the-art analyses require of order 1 yr of expert investigator time and up to a million hours of computing time per system. Furthermore, as precision improves, it is crucial to identify and mitigate systematic uncertainties. With this time delay lens modelling challenge, we aim to assess the level of precision and accuracy of the modelling techniques that are currently fast enough to handle of order 50 lenses, via the blind analysis of simulated data sets. The results in Rungs 1 and 2 show that methods that use only the point source positions tend to have lower precision ($10\!-\!20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) while remaining accurate. In Rung 2, the methods that exploit the full information of the imaging and kinematic data sets can recover H0 within the target accuracy (|A| < 2 per cent) and precision (<6 per cent per system), even in the presence of a poorly known point spread function and complex source morphology. A post-unblinding analysis of Rung 3 showed the numerical precision of the ray-traced cosmological simulations to be insufficient to test lens modelling methodology at the percent level, making the results difficult to interpret. A new challenge with improved simulations is needed to make further progress in the investigation of systematic uncertainties. For completeness, we present the Rung 3 results in an appendix and use them to discuss various approaches to mitigating against similar subtle data generation effects in future blind challenges.

Ding, X.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The well-tempered cosmological constant: the Horndeski variations

Well tempering is one of the few classical field theory methods for solving the original cosmological constant problem, dynamically canceling a large (possibly Planck scale) vacuum energy and leaving the matter component intact, while providing a viable cosmology with late time cosmic acceleration and an end de Sitter state. We present the general constraints that variations of Horndeski gravity models with different combinations of terms must satisfy to admit an exact de Sitter spacetime that does not respond to an arbitrarily large cosmological constant. We explicitly derive several specific scalar-tensor models that well temper and can deliver a standard cosmic history including current cosmic acceleration. Stability criteria, attractor behavior of the de Sitter state, and the response of the models to pressureless matter are considered. The well tempered conditions can be used to focus on particular models of modified gravity that have special interest— not only removing the original cosmological constant problem but providing relations between the free Horndeski functions and reducing them to a couple of parameters, suitable for testing gravity and cosmological data analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗