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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spectral Power-law Formation by Sequential Particle Acceleration in Multiple Flare Magnetic Islands

We present a first-principles model of pitch-angle and energy distribution function evolution as particles are sequentially accelerated by multiple flare magnetic islands. Data from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of an eruptive flare/coronal mass ejection provide ambient conditions for the evolving particle distributions. Magnetic islands, which are created by sporadic reconnection at the self-consistently formed flare current sheet, contract and accelerate the particles. The particle distributions are evolved using rules derived in our previous work. In this investigation, we assume that a prescribed fraction of particles sequentially "hops" to another accelerator and receives an additional boost in energy and anisotropy. This sequential process generates particle number spectra that obey an approximate power law at mid-range energies and presents low- and high-energy breaks. We analyze these spectral regions as functions of the model parameters. We also present a fully analytic method for forming and interpreting such spectra, independent of the sequential acceleration model. The method requires only a few constrained physical parameters, such as the percentage of particles transferred between accelerators, the energy gain in each accelerator, and the number of accelerators visited. Our investigation seeks to bridge the gap between MHD and kinetic regimes by combining global simulations and analytic kinetic theory. The model reproduces and explains key characteristics of observed flare hard X-ray spectra as well as the underlying properties of the accelerated particles. Our analytic model provides tools to interpret high-energy observations for missions and telescopes, such as RHESSI, FOXSI, NuSTAR, Solar Orbiter, EOVSA, and future high-energy missions.

magnetic reconnection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Correlation Between Atmospheric Dust Deposition to the Surface Ocean and SeaWiFS Ocean Color: A Global Satellite-Based Analysis

Since the atmospheric deposition of iron has been linked to primary productivity in various oceanic regions, we have conducted an objective study of the correlation of dust deposition and satellite remotely sensed surface ocean chlorophyll concentrations. We present a global analysis of the correlation between atmospheric dust deposition derived from a satellite-based 3-D atmospheric transport model and SeaWiFs estimates of ocean color. We use the monthly mean dust deposition fields of Ginoux et al. which are based on a global model of dust generation and transport. This model is driven by atmospheric circulation from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) for the period 1995-1998. This global dust model is constrained by several satellite estimates of standard circulation characteristics. We then perform an analysis of the correlation between the dust deposition and the 1998 SeaWIFS ocean color data for each 2.0 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid point, for each month of the year. The results are surprisingly robust. The region between 40 S and 60 S has correlation coefficients from 0.6 to 0.95, statistically significant at the 0.05 level. There are swaths of high correlation at the edges of some major ocean current systems. We interpret these correlations as reflecting areas that have shear related turbulence bringing nitrogen and phosphorus from depth into the surface ocean, and the atmospheric supply of iron provides the limiting nutrient and the correlation between iron deposition and surface ocean chlorophyll is high. There is a region in the western North Pacific with high correlation, reflecting the input of Asian dust to that region. The southern hemisphere has an average correlation coefficient of 0.72 compared that in the northern hemisphere of 0.42 consistent with present conceptual models of where atmospheric iron deposition may play a role in surface ocean biogeochemical cycles. The spatial structure of the correlation fields will be discussed within the context of guiding the design of field programs.

Erickson, D. J., III↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using irradiation-induced defects as pinning sites to minimize self-alignment in twisted bilayer graphene

Preparing bi-layer graphene under a magic twisting angle of ~1.1° has been challenging due to its strong tendency for self-alignment. We propose a method to pin graphene layers and minimize their self-rotation when positioned close to each other. The feasibility is demonstrated by the present study using molecular dynamics simulations. C 60 clusters are used to bombard two individual graphene layers, creating damage on both layers. When two irradiated layers are moving closer to each other, defects from irradiation damaged zones can interact with each other, hence acting as pinning sites to immobilize graphene and minimize rotation or gliding. Dangling bonds from defective regions of each plane induce the formation of sp bonds. Upon sliding, the bond is strong enough to induce the formation of one-dimensional carbon single chain, acting as a thread to constrain the relative movements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primordial black holes from bubble collisions during a first-order phase transition

We study the possibility of production of primordial black holes (PBHs) from bubble collisions during a first-order phase transition. While typical colliding bubbles are small and irrelevant for PBH production, we find that those that can produce PBHs must have a macroscopically thick fluid shell and have been born much before the typical nucleation time. Particularly large uncertainties arise from an exponential sensitivity of the nucleation rate on the required duration of bubble growth which depends on the details of the collisions and the evolution of the spacetime metric toward the end of the phase transition. We introduce a few parameters to be obtained from future numerical simulation to represent those unknowns, and estimate the PBH abundance in an Abelian Higgs benchmark model and show that it can be significant. We predict an approximately monochromatic PBH mass spectrum, and find regions in the parameter space where the PBHs can constitute entire dark matter or even overclose the Universe. Our result thus shows that models with a first-order phase transition can be constrained by overabundant PBHs or null results of other PBH searches. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Order-of-magnitude increase in laser-target coupling at near-relativistic intensities using compound parabolic concentrators

Achieving a high conversion efficiency into relativistic electrons is central to short-pulse laser application and fundamentally relies on creating interaction regions with intensities $\ll$ 10 18 W / cm 2 . Small focal length optics are typically employed to achieve this goal; however, this solution is impractical for large kJ-class systems that are constrained by facility geometry, debris concerns, and component costs. We fielded target-mounted compound parabolic concentrators to overcome these limitations and achieved nearly an order-of-magnitude increase to the conversion efficiency and more than tripled electron temperature compared to flat targets. Particle-in-cell simulations show that plasma confinement within the cone and formation of turbulent laser fields that develop from cone wall reflections are responsible for the improved laser-to-target coupling. These passive target components can be used to improve the coupling efficiency for all high-intensity short-pulse laser applications, particularly at large facilities with long focal length optics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

Subcentimeter-size particle distribution functions in planetary rings from Voyager radio and photopolarimeter occultation data

Analysis of measurements of the scattered and direct components of Voyager 1 radio occultation signals at 3.5 and 13 cm wavelengths yield estimates of the distribution functions of supracentimeter-size particles and thickness of relatively broad regions in Saturn's rings. If mearurements of signal amplitude at a shorter wavelength are combined with the previously analyzed data, the shape of the distribution functions characterizing the smaller particles can be constrained. If size distributions of arbitrary form were considered, many solutions are found that are consistent with the three available observations of signal amplitude. The best-fit power law was calculated to the three observations at three wavelengths for several of the embedded Saturn ringlets. Mie scattering theory predicts that the measured phase of the radio occultation signal is highly sensitive to particles ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 wavelengths in size, thus additional constraints on the subcentimeter-size distribution functions for both the Saturn and Uranus rings can in principle be derived from radio phase measurements.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mapping the Solar Wind from its Source Region into the Outer Corona

Knowledge of the radial variation of the plasma conditions in the coronal source region of the solar wind is essential to exploring coronal heating and solar wind acceleration mechanisms. The goal of the present proposal is to determine as many plasma parameters in that region as possible by coordinating different observational techniques, such as Interplanetary Scintillation Observations, spectral line intensity observations, polarization brightness measurements and X-ray observations. The inferred plasma parameters are then used to constrain solar wind models.

Esser, Ruth↗
NASA NTRS2005

Expanding the Use of Time-Based Metering: Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor

Time-based metering is an efficient air traffic management alternative to the more common practice of distance-based metering (or "miles-in-trail spacing"). Despite having demonstrated significant operational benefit to airspace users and service providers, time-based metering is used in the United States for arrivals to just nine airports and is not used at all for non-arrival traffic flows. The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor promises to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic management techniques. Not constrained to operate solely on arrival traffic, Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor is flexible enough to work in highly congested or heavily partitioned airspace for any and all traffic flows in a region. This broader and more general application of time-based metering is expected to bring the operational benefits of time-based metering to a much wider pool of beneficiaries than is possible with existing technology. It also promises to facilitate more collaborative traffic management on a regional basis. This paper focuses on the operational concept of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor, touching also on its system architecture, field test results, and prospects for near-term deployment to the United States National Airspace System.

Landry, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Freshwater Requirements of Large-Scale Bioenergy Plantations for Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C

Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 °C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of bioenergy plantations (BPs) dedicated to achieving NEs through CO2 assimilation may be limited in regions with low freshwater availability. This paper provides a first-order quantification of the biophysical potentials of BECCS as a negative emission technology contribution to reaching the 1.5 °C warming target, as constrained by associated water availabilities and requirements. Using a global biosphere model, we analyze the availability of freshwater for irrigation of BPs designed to meet the projected NEs to fulfill the 1.5 °C target, spatially explicitly on areas not reserved for ecosystem conservation or agriculture. We take account of the simultaneous water demands for agriculture, industries, and households and also account for environmental flow requirements (EFRs) needed to safeguard aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, we assess to what extent different forms of improved water management on the suggested BPs and on cropland may help to reduce the freshwater abstractions. Results indicate that global water withdrawals for irrigation of BPs range between ~400 and ~3000 km(exp 3) yr(exp -1), depending on the scenario and the conversion efficiency of the carbon capture and storage process. Consideration of EFRs reduces the NE potential significantly, but can partly be compensated for by improved on-field water management.

Stenzel, Fabian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing VSC-HVDC Oscillation Damping Control Constraints in Unit Commitment

High-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems within the existing power grids will play a pivotal role in enabling high share of renewable power integration and transportation electrification. There is a need for transmission planning models to accurately capture the impact of VSC-HVDC oscillation damping control on the system planning and model the constraints in the security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem. In this paper, the SCUC problem in a hybrid DC-AC grid considering damping on electromechanical inter-area oscillation is studied. An electromechanical oscillation-driven transmission capability constraints are derived from system swing equation and incorporated into the SCUC. Multiple system damping control scenarios are set based on the extracted plausible bounds of damping coefficient and inertia constant to linearize the nonlinear expressions. The SCUC problem with proposed constraints is tested on the IEEE 73-bus reliability test system (RTS) case via PLEXOS. The impact of the proposed constraints on regional generation, inertia, power flow, annual system cost, and renewable energy curtailment are fully assessed.

damping control↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2012

Constraining Aerosol Optical Models Using Ground-Based, Collocated Particle Size and Mass Measurements in Variable Air Mass Regimes During the 7-SEAS/Dongsha Experiment

During the spring of 2010, NASA Goddard's COMMIT ground-based mobile laboratory was stationed on Dongsha Island off the southwest coast of Taiwan, in preparation for the upcoming 2012 7-SEAS field campaign. The measurement period offered a unique opportunity for conducting detailed investigations of the optical properties of aerosols associated with different air mass regimes including background maritime and those contaminated by anthropogenic air pollution and mineral dust. What appears to be the first time for this region, a shortwave optical closure experiment for both scattering and absorption was attempted over a 12-day period during which aerosols exhibited the most change. Constraints to the optical model included combined SMPS and APS number concentration data for a continuum of fine and coarse-mode particle sizes up to PM2.5. We also take advantage of an IMPROVE chemical sampler to help constrain aerosol composition and mass partitioning of key elemental species including sea-salt, particulate organic matter, soil, non sea-salt sulphate, nitrate, and elemental carbon. Our results demonstrate that the observed aerosol scattering and absorption for these diverse air masses are reasonably captured by the model, where peak aerosol events and transitions between key aerosols types are evident. Signatures of heavy polluted aerosol composed mostly of ammonium and non sea-salt sulphate mixed with some dust with transitions to background sea-salt conditions are apparent in the absorption data, which is particularly reassuring owing to the large variability in the imaginary component of the refractive indices. Extinctive features at significantly smaller time scales than the one-day sample period of IMPROVE are more difficult to reproduce, as this requires further knowledge concerning the source apportionment of major chemical components in the model. Consistency between the measured and modeled optical parameters serves as an important link for advancing remote sensing and climate research studies in dynamic aerosol-rich environments like Dongsha.

Bell, Shaun W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Multidecadal Trends in Ozone Chemistry in the Baltimore-Washington Region

Over the past four decades, policy-led reductions in anthropogenic emissions have improved air quality over the Baltimore-Washington region (BWR). Most of the improvements in meeting the ozone air quality metrics (NAAQS) did not occur until the early 2000s despite large reductions in ozone precursors (NOx, CO, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) in the prior decades. We use observations of ozone and ozone precursors from satellites, ground-based sites, and the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ aircraft campaign in Maryland to illustrate how ozone chemistry in the BWR evolved between 1972 and 2019. Analysis of weekday vs weekend probability of ozone exceedance indicates the BWR transitioned to the NOx-limited regime by 2000–2003. A data-constrained box model agrees with this transition period and illustrates the key roles of reduced emissions of formaldehyde (HCHO), aromatics, and other VOCs since 1996, which reduced the peak of ozone production at the time of the transition and likely prevented the BWR from experiencing worsening surface air quality as the region transitioned to NOx-limited chemistry. Analysis of satellite observations of tropospheric column HCHO to NO2 analyzed using a new approach for evaluation of chemical regimes derived from DISCOVER-AQ data also provide a consistent depiction of the timing of the transition period that we infer from ground-based observations and the box model. Finally, despite significant improvements in air quality over the past two decades, the BWR still has not met the EPA standard for surface ozone. With predominantly NOx-limited ozone chemistry over the BWR, continued decreases in emission of NOx will slow the rate of ozone production and help improve air quality. We highlight emissions of NO2 from the diesel truck fleet as a worthwhile focus for future policy because emissions from this source appear to influence day-of-week variations in observed NO2, with an accompanying effect on ozone.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the broadband emission of the TeV blazar Mrk 501 during the first X-ray polarization measurements

Aims.We present the first multiwavelength study of Mrk 501 that contains simultaneous very-high-energy (VHE)γ-ray observations and X-ray polarization measurements from the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Methods.We used radio-to-VHE data from a multiwavelength campaign carried out between March 1, 2022, and July 19, 2022 (MJD 59639 to MJD 59779). The observations were performed by MAGIC,Fermi-LAT,NuSTAR,Swift(XRT and UVOT), and several other instruments that cover the optical and radio bands to complement the IXPE pointings. We characterized the dynamics of the broadband emission around the X-ray polarization measurements through its multiband fractional variability and correlations, and compared changes observed in the polarization degree to changes seen in the broadband emission using a multi-zone leptonic scenario. Results.During the IXPE pointings, the VHE state is close to the average behavior, with a 0.2–1 TeV flux of 20%–50% of the emission of the Crab Nebula. Additionally, it shows low variability and a hint of correlation between VHEγ-rays and X-rays. Despite the average VHE activity, an extreme X-ray behavior is measured for the first two IXPE pointings, taken in March 2022 (MJD 59646 to 59648 and MJD 59665 to 59667), with a synchrotron peak frequency > 1 keV. For the third IXPE pointing, in July 2022 (MJD 59769 to 59772), the synchrotron peak shifts toward lower energies and the optical/X-ray polarization degrees drop. All three IXPE epochs show an atypically low Compton dominance in theγ-rays. The X-ray polarization is systematically higher than at lower energies, suggesting an energy stratification of the jet. While during the IXPE epochs the polarization angles in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands align well, we find a clear discrepancy in the optical and radio polarization angles in the middle of the campaign. Such results further support the hypothesis of an energy-stratified jet. We modeled broadband spectra taken simultaneous to the IXPE pointings, assuming a compact zone that dominates in the X-rays and the VHE band, and an extended zone stretching farther downstream in the jet that dominates the emission at lower energies.NuSTARdata allow us to precisely constrain the synchrotron peak and therefore the underlying electron distribution. The change between the different states observed in the three IXPE pointings can be explained by a change in the magnetization and/or the emission region size, which directly connects the shift in the synchrotron peak to lower energies with the drop in the polarization degree.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of spontaneous fission

Large-scale computations of fission properties are an important ingredient for nuclear reaction network calculations simulating rapid neutron-capture process (the 𝑟 process) nucleosynthesis. Due to the large number of fissioning nuclei potentially contributing to the 𝑟 process, a microscopic description of fission based on nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is computationally challenging. Here, we explore the use of neural networks (NNs) to construct DFT emulators capable of predicting potential energy surfaces and collective inertia tensors across the whole nuclear chart, starting from a minimal set of DFT calculations. We use constrained Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) calculations to predict the potential energy and collective inertia tensor in the axial quadrupole and octupole collective coordinates, for a set of nuclei in the 𝑟-process region. We then employ NNs to emulate the HFB energy and collective inertia tensor across the considered region of the nuclear chart. Least-action pathways characterizing spontaneous fission half-lives and fragment yields are then obtained by means of the nudged elastic band method. The potential energy predicted by NNs agrees with the DFT value to within a root-mean-square error of 500 keV, and the collective inertia components agree to within an order of magnitude. These results are largely independent of the NN architecture. The exit points on the outer turning line are found to be well emulated. For the spontaneous fission half-lives the NN emulation provides values that are found to agree with the DFT predictions within a factor of 10 3 across more than 70 orders of magnitude. Neural networks are able to emulate the potential energy and collective inertia well enough to reasonably predict physical observables. Future directions of study, such as the inclusion of additional collective degrees of freedom and active learning, will improve the predictive power of microscopic theory and further enable large-scale fission studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗